The Art of the Smokescreen
It's that time of year when NFL GM's try to act like they have other plans
By GregMeinholz
It's lying season, people. Every General Manager worth anything around the league has a plan by this point. If they don't, they'll probably be finding themselves standing at the unemployment line pretty quickly. And with a little less than three weeks before the NFL Draft, with that plan, comes the task of throwing off the opposition. They have their list of options ready, but they want to make everyone else think they're going in a different direction so most of those options are still available come their time on the clock.
Every GM is trying to run that smokescreen even if it isn't for who they pick. Perhaps they're trying to gain leverage elsewhere. Look at the Bears a few weeks ago. They did a horrendous job of it considering they only received a conditional 6th-round pick for Justin Fields. Still, they were trying to run a smokescreen for whether or not they were going to keep Fields or draft Caleb Williams with the first overall pick. No one was falling for that, but hey, we'll give the Bears an A for effort.
Luckily, as Packer fans, we've been blessed with a General Manager in Brian Gutekunst who seems to know what he's doing in that aspect.
Nobody ever really seems to have a true grasp on what is going on at 1265 Lombardi Ave in the off-season. Let's look at the last few drafts. Receivers, receivers, and receivers were on everyone's boards for the Packers in round 1. But not once did they choose a receiver with that pick. To be honest I chalk it up to the draft industrial complex not truly knowing a team's tendencies and just throwing their stock in the popular picks. Last year for the first time, I truly believed it was time to see that first-round pass catcher whether it be a receiver or tight end. Of course, I was wrong, and instead, they got a good tight end and receiver in the second round.
One smokescreen in Brian Gutekunst's repertoire appears to be the pre-draft visit. There have been situations where players the Packers have brought in for visits have been on the clock at their projected selection point and the Packers have passed on them for others. Occasionally the Packers even draft players in the first three rounds they never even interviewed or brought in for a visit. In fact, the Packers never interviewed Jaire Alexander before drafting him in 2018.
That's right, the Packers traded up nine spots and also sacrificed a third and fifth-round pick for a Louisville cornerback that they never even brought in for a pre-draft visit. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize that this was a good trade in hindsight considering Alexander would go on to have a great career that is still in progress. But it tends to be forgotten that Alexander was Brian Gutekunst's first-ever draft pick.
His first-ever draft pick was a smokescreen. Many had the Packers choosing a DB in the first round, but not many chose Alexander. Some of that could be the lack of a pre-draft visit. Names like Minkah Fitzpatrick or Derwin James were brought up for the Packers in round 1, The Packers originally held the no. 14 pick in the draft. They eventually traded this to New Orleans for future draft compensation but the two DBs brought in for visits were not taken by the Pack. Alexander was still a first-round pick caliber player but perhaps not for the Packers even though he's had an outstanding career despite. Even though Gutekunst has made it seem like this was his plan all along, we may never know if this was on purpose or not, but Alexander has been such a great feature in Green Bay, that it's hard to ignore.
This year, we may never know. There are so many options for the Packers in the first round that there's bound to be some white lies here and there. Recently the Packers brought in Amarius Mims, an OT out of Virginia Tech for a visit. Mims checks a lot of boxes in terms of athleticism, but there is a lot of speculation that he's being used as a smokescreen due to his lack of experience. Perhaps just before the Packers are on the clock a team will trade up and take Mims think they're ahead of the Packers as the Packers smile and nod knowing they fooled another as they grab a Graham Barton, Cooper Dejean, or someone else anticipated.
Smokescreens are used to ensure you receive the pick you want wherever you are in the draft. Hopefully, to the Packers' success, they find another one that they prefer over the others but until then, Go Pack Go.
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Greg Meinholz is a lifelong devoted Packer fan. A contributor to CheeseheadTV as well as PackersTalk. Follow him on Twitter @gmeinholz for Packers commentary, random humor, beer endorsements, and occasional Star Wars and Marvel ramblings.
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Comments (101)
Packer_Fan
April 07, 2024 at 07:18 am
Yup. I think it is funny with all the mock drafts and talk from Gute.
Here is what I think. And not being a pundit makes my case better. :)
On defense, we have two holes. Safety and LB. Look for drafting two each and Gute scraping the free agent barrel after the draft or June 1st to add veteran help. We have 5 CB's on the roster, so look for 3rd day draft prospect. Also since Enagbare is hurt, look for an edge in mid rounds. And a late pick DL.
On offense, there are starters for every position. The OL does not have depth, so look for Gute to pick somewhat high for one to compete for a starting spot or for future. I suspect Gute will pick a second OL. I would like to see a high pick for C-G to compete at center and right guard this year. Also draft mid round RB for future. And because Gute said so, look for a QB pick. Gute may pick some WR or TE depth.
And because of all the s%^t flying, no one else's opinion is better than mine.
Boneman
April 07, 2024 at 07:52 am
Unfortunately CB and Edge are two premium positions that the Packers will target, I believe, earlier than the mid rounds. Don't be surprised if the first two picks are these two positions and LB and safety are mid round selections. Advanced metrics show the Pack was pretty bad at CB so look for that to be pick #1 and even a trade up candidate.
NickPerry
April 07, 2024 at 09:15 am
I think CB is high as well. I don't believe Gute has the faith Stokes will get back to what he was in year one. If he does great. But at this point Gute isn't counting on him at all so a CB will get draft in the first 3 picks.
dobber
April 07, 2024 at 12:15 pm
I think the Packers will be forced to decline Stokes' 5th year option in May. They needed some help in the CB room either way...now it's higher-end help.
NickPerry
April 07, 2024 at 05:35 pm
I agree, they'll have no better idea in May than they did in January about his health..
Alberta_Packer
April 07, 2024 at 01:04 pm
At 25 - I think that Kool-Aid McKinstry will be GBs top (realistic) pick. As he may be the last of the Tier One CBs that Gutekunst may covet.
WD
April 07, 2024 at 01:21 pm
I would use the second round for 2 ILBs preferably 1) Payton Wilson who if not for a number of injuries would be a top 10 pick. If available the choice should be left up to the medical staff. Gute is not an MD . Otherwise 2) Junior Colsun (or Eggerin Cooper) would be ideal. Get two of those three if possible If we cant' get two of them we could probably get Cedric Grey in round 3 but that is a another tier down. Again, we need two ILB. Might as well make them good . They say this a a weak draft for ILBs . For 25 take the best value at O line or CB/ safety. I like Cooper De Jean but he will probably be gone. Barton is a nice IOl. If we don't draft an O-line early cheer up and watch some highlight film of Caleb Jones and be grateful for what we have.
stockholder
April 07, 2024 at 07:55 am
I use to think it was a smoke screen -
Now I think its smoke blown up are ass.
I don't like the trading with division rivals.
Winning the draft; is what it use to be about.
Taking a guy that had a reputation.
That SOLD the franchise, more than the NFL.
The draft is now a science, instead of fit.
Instead of fans choice.
We now get Test scores.
And what use to be bad blood.
Has turned into money making First.
The fight is gone. And I miss it.
Oppy
April 07, 2024 at 09:43 am
If teams were making moves based on "fan choice" (which, by the way, is silly), that would mean they were making moves in order to appease the fans as opposed to making moves that they feel puts them in the best position to win.
Why would teams make moves to appease the fans? Well, it doesn't take an advanced degree to come to the conclusion that you appease the fans to sell tickets.
Strap on your funny looking thinking cap, Stock, because here's the pants-kicker: That would mean that going with the "fans' choice" is actually more about "making money first" far moreso than teams that make "science" moves that aren't fan favorites but instead intended to do what they feel is in the best interests of building out their roster.
stockholder
April 07, 2024 at 11:20 am
Polls?
Oppy
April 07, 2024 at 11:48 am
If you could find it in your heart to respond with a complete thought I could answer your question.
stockholder
April 07, 2024 at 11:53 am
You know what I mean.
The polls are the fans choice. -
Oppy
April 07, 2024 at 03:06 pm
I literally had no idea what you meant, because I have never heard of an NFL team polling the fans to decide who to select in the draft- or to make any football decisions, for that matter.
Can you expand on wtf you're talking about with polls? You mean for pro bowls or something? That has nothing to do with how Teams operate.
TKWorldWide
April 07, 2024 at 03:15 pm
He had me at “are ass”.
stockholder
April 07, 2024 at 03:28 pm
How can you not improve the roster if you win the draft?
Oppy -The fans poll is based on needs.
How does that not improve the roster.
You think I'm picking on Gute. OK - I will-
After Five years where's the Lombardi trophy?
The rich got richer and KC won again.
Oppy
April 07, 2024 at 04:28 pm
Why do you put any stock into what a group of fans think the right thing to do is?
If you left it up to fans, no beloved NFL player would ever be cut from the team, they'd continue to earn top dollar and play forever.
If you left it up to fans, Davante Adams would have been cut after his 2nd NFL season.
If you left it up to fans, Brett Favre would have never been brought to Green Bay, and Don Majkowski would have been the long term starter for the Packers. If you left it up to fans, Rodgers would have never been drafted by the Packers, and Brett Favre would have played out the rest of his career in GB.. and who knows where the Packers would be today?
If you left it up to fans, Rashan Gary would have never been drafted.. or Jordan Love.
You don't seem to realize that the general public- the average football fan- is nothing more than a slack-jawed spectator. NFL front office professionals are just that. They literally put in well over 3000 hours a year living, breathing, eating, sleeping football personnel.
skydancer506
April 07, 2024 at 07:39 pm
Exactly!!
Scouts spend more time on the road writing reports on prospects than they do at the home office. All of these reports are used to narrow the choices down to a handful of players that the scouts and GM would like to see at All Star games, and inform the selection committees of who they would like to have invited. (All Star games are NOT a reward for performance but a try out for the pro's with input from each team as to who should get selected.) By the time the player has made it through 4, 5 or 6 seasons, the scouts already have reams of paper on them. Then comes the All Star games, followed by the Combine. This is where the teams can get their first interviews with players. By the time the first question is asked, the scouting department has read the reports and watched hundreds of hours of film on that player. Once the Combine is over, Pro Days ramp up - one more time to do a final check. In the meantime, players are being moved all around the Big Board based upon their evaluations.
By draft day, the scouting department has spent 50 out of the last 52 weeks preparing for it. The casual fan doesn't even begin to look at the draft until after the Super Bowl.
[Case in point - I try to watch all of the All Star games if I can. I've invited football fan friends of mine over to watch. They look at me funny, like they think I'm not being serious. "Why would I want to do that?" they ask. "Because the All Star games and the Combine are where 95% of players that are drafted will come from. This is a chance for us to get an early look at players that the scouts have already been looking at," I reply. Nobody joins me because they think it's stupid. Then they come out making Mock Drafts that have no basis in reality, when I can at least get 2-3 picks correct in my Mock. Last year I predicted Dontayvion Wicks in the 5th Round, Anthony Johnson Jr. in the 7th Round and placed Kadeem Telfort also in the 7th round. Telfort went UDFA. The only player that I think will be drafted this year is Trevin Wallace, LB, Kentucky, at either 88 or 91 (3rd round), if he is still on the board. I'm hoping they take Frank Crum, OT, Wyoming, in the 6th round (pick 2020), but I don't know if that will happen or not. I still have difficulty, because of the smokescreen, getting Rounds 1-4 correctly.]
TKWorldWide
April 07, 2024 at 08:46 pm
I resemble that “slack-jawed” remark!
And
Are you saying that watching highlight clips on YouTube isn’t scouting?
LOL
stockholder
April 08, 2024 at 06:44 am
Actually Oppy you do have a point with this comment-
Because 50 % of the fans don't know who to draft.
Draft guides are published for a reason.
And if you are a draft Guru like Kiper.
We're all told what mistakes GMs make.
I would have never drafted Gary or Love.
But then Gute hasn't won a super-bowl yet .
Were those players a NEED
at the time they were drafted?
Anybody that knows sports-
Would tell you NO way.
Oppy
April 08, 2024 at 06:42 pm
No, they weren't a need. Well, Love arguably was a need, because I 100% guarantee Gute knew Rodgers had to go. But I digress.
You don't just draft for need.
If all you do is draft need, you'll end up leaving superior players on the board...And what isn't a "need" today, can literally become a need in 24 hrs.
Boneman
April 08, 2024 at 08:17 am
And yet, us slack eyed fans knew that TJ Watt was a special player and the 3000 hour cold stone pros thought KK was the better choice...ah well, even a blind squirrel.
Oppy
April 07, 2024 at 04:30 pm
Where does Gute come into this? I didn't mention him. You just mentioned him.
You are off your rocker.
Duhawk_47
April 10, 2024 at 09:30 am
Imagine how many 1st round receivers we'd have drafted in the last 10 years if it were up to the fans LOL
jannesbjornson
April 07, 2024 at 09:44 am
But we don't miss Red Cochrane having a heart attack while Bart whiffed on Joe Montana, three times.
Distilling the talent to fit a formula to Win, not Show:
#25 Jordan Morgan Arizona LT
#38 T'vondre Sweat Texas DT
#58 Caelen Carson Wake CB
#80 Bucky Irving Oregon RB
#91 B. Coleman TCU OG/OT
#126 Jalen Ford Texas LB
#169 Nate Watson MS State LB
#202 Limmer Arkansas OC/OG
#219 Ike Williams Illinois WR/PR
#245 M.Kamara CO State Edge
#255 Sione Vaki Utah Safety
stockholder
April 07, 2024 at 11:35 am
JB - Morgan has dropped.
Gute takes the guy thats climbing.
IMO Gute should take a center first then.
JB I agree Sweat is a good pick.
But not at 38-41. Back 7 first.
JB Carson is a bad pick.
#58 is for what fell/Steal.
Carson is neither.
I'm still sticking with DeJean.
And Wilson is still my #41.
I want guys that can move around.
Versatility first,
Your drafts are too stationary.
stockholder
April 07, 2024 at 03:19 pm
25. Cooper DeJean. DB. Iowa.
41 Tyler Nubin. SS. Minn. Wish pick.
58 Darius Robinson DL Miss DTs Drop.
88. Cedric Gray. LB NC.
91. Javon Solomon OLB Troy.
126. Luke MCCaffrey. WR. Rice
169. Nat Watson. LB MIss.
202. Drake Nugent. C. U/m
219 Jase McClellan RB. Alabama
245. Candan. Wallace. OT. PS
255. CJ Hanson. OL. Holy Cross
Alberta_Packer
April 07, 2024 at 04:18 pm
So no O-line until pick 202? In a draft that has excellent OT prospects in Day 1 and 2. Plus fine IOL into the mid rounds. Your first pick for the Packers is in the 6th round? Now wondering if you're diabetic? With a strong avoidance for sweet (spots).
stockholder
April 07, 2024 at 04:45 pm
The measurements of each player
Changed my Mocks. And we're just to low @25.
IMO - The current OL is good enough, and can only improve.
The guys after #25 are nothing special now.
They are draft and development.
Gute got rid of 4 starters on defense.
X adds 1, leaving 2 holes, and No Douglass.
jannesbjornson
April 07, 2024 at 04:24 pm
I do not read PFF. Morgan has moved up on PFN and Pauline's hierarchy around #28-30. Quite a few mocks with him at #25. He's the guy with the best feet and glide as a LT, not a monument, or boat anchor to squat at RT. If he falls for the SEC beef stock, he will get Meki Becton. Gray is the LB I would select, but will be satisfied with Eichenberg as a guy who knows the position and Ford, a bigger plugger to handle the middle. When you get to #58, Carson is the best man press/zone guy on the board with the size to control the RBs coming at the secondary and body up bigger WRs. The fast light weight CBs will get beat on and miss time. Some have T. Sweat going in round One. Josh Sweat is his brother.
TKWorldWide
April 07, 2024 at 02:00 pm
Everybody but SF whiffed on Joe Montana 3 times.
Everybody but NE missed on Tom Brady 6 times.
Everybody but Seattle whiffed on Richard Sherman 5 times.
C’mon now!
LeotisHarris
April 07, 2024 at 03:09 pm
Did you just try to Blow smoke up are asses?
Remember, Bart was a 17th round Draft choice, and his own dad didn't Like him.
Also, Jack Vainisi lived like a feral animal, never wrote a single note, and couldn't put three cones together if his life depended on it. NO fancy RAS for him, and that's the way we LIKED it!
TKWorldWide
April 07, 2024 at 03:17 pm
When I played on the freshman football team, they timed us in the 40. I insisted on running uphill. BOTH WAYS.
stockholder
April 07, 2024 at 04:10 pm
Please buy the cheesehead draft guide.
If Gute had followed it.
Rodgers would still be here and we'd have two more Lombardi
Oppy
April 07, 2024 at 04:37 pm
How many Lombardi trophies did Aaron Rodgers win between 2011 and 2023?
I'll answer for you; Zero. 0.00 NFL Championships.
But, you know, if the Packers would have kept Rodgers in 2023, we'd have two more Lomardi's.
Which is really hilarious, because Rodgers was the QB for the Packers in 2022.. so where did this second Lombardi come from?
jannesbjornson
April 07, 2024 at 04:15 pm
Not. Cochrane had Montana scouted and rated as his # one guy on the board. Bart picked some 'college" guys his friend coached. Cochrane was exasperated after Each round. The compare and contrast escapism is not valid.
jannesbjornson
April 07, 2024 at 04:45 pm
It is probably foggy on Mt. Gutedkunst, but somebody in the Office seemed sober the past couple of drafts, hitting on WRs which were ignored in previous drafts to solace the guru from the Reader's Digest Book Club, hanging with has beens. The move on Karl Brooks tells me the Staff must watch the MAC games on Wed-TR nights?
Western Michigan has Kneeland this draft. Who was asleep at the wheel when Maxx Crosby was lighting it up?
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
April 07, 2024 at 08:48 pm
Crosby fell due to character concerns. IIRC, he either had a drug or alcohol problem before entering the league.
jannesbjornson
April 11, 2024 at 12:06 pm
Then, he wasn't the only one seeing double.
@Kumps76
April 07, 2024 at 08:04 am
Mims plays for Georgia, so if it is a smoke screen it’s a great one because Gutey does love to draft those Bulldogs.
Bearmeat
April 07, 2024 at 08:13 am
We need to draft Davoin Shower-Handel, University of Southern Mississippi.
https://youtu.be/gODZzSOelss
TKWorldWide
April 07, 2024 at 09:24 am
Love it! Never gets old!
Handsback
April 07, 2024 at 09:52 am
Made me laugh out loud....followed by the byutv skit of batman.
Thanks for sharing.
TKWorldWide
April 07, 2024 at 09:25 am
TT was not exactly forthcoming either. IIRC, Ron Wolf was a little more open, oddly.
murf7777
April 07, 2024 at 09:44 am
There really isn’t a GM who, at the very least, who doesn’t try to be deceptive. I don’t recall Wolf being open about his intent of who he wanted to take or even position. Why would he show his hand?
TKWorldWide
April 07, 2024 at 03:20 pm
Yeah, I think he was probably pretty elusive regarding the draft. I remember being shocked at his blunt assessments when he first took over. I was so used to the previous regimes always making it sound like it was purely bad luck that prevented our 22 All-Pros from making the playoffs.
Oppy
April 07, 2024 at 09:49 am
Well, Ted was just so honest about the simplicity of the approach. That doesn't mean he ever really -told- us anything. "You just kind have this group of guys you like, that you might like a little bit more than this other group of guys you like.. and then you just kind of get a feel for what guys you like are there when you pick, and then you hope the guys you like a little more are still there and that works out great if they play the positions you need to fill, but if they don't, sometimes that's okay too, but you can always see if maybe you can't work out a deal with some other folks you know and end up in a situation where maybe you can still get a guy you like a little bit later and get another guy you didn't think you were gonna be able to get too... but shucks, we really like all our guys we have right now, so you just don't really know. But I don't know, maybe I'll get all sorts of squirrelly and move up just to make it exciting for you guys."
That's my best TT impression. You gotta see me when I do the delivery while wearing a 1/4 zip packers top, it's spot on
Oppy
April 07, 2024 at 09:51 am
You also have to add in a "well, I guess we just don't really look at it that way" when a reporter questions why the Packers don't do it like everyone else in the NFL does (or how writers and fans THINK everyone else does it, at any rate)
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
April 07, 2024 at 10:00 am
Awesome Oppy!
TKWorldWide
April 07, 2024 at 12:49 pm
You are a master of your craft!
PackAttackJack
April 07, 2024 at 02:50 pm
Spot on impression of TT. Now you have to practice the thousand yard stare.
Oppy
April 07, 2024 at 03:09 pm
Oh, I've got it down. Just comes naturally to me, byproduct of my upbringing and the bleak existence of my adult life.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
April 07, 2024 at 08:49 pm
Wolf also worked before the social media era. That has changed things drastically.
murf7777
April 07, 2024 at 09:32 am
Love your example of da Bears with only getting a 6th round pick for Fields. Once again, they will throw a rookie QB into the fire without letting them ride Ihe bench and learn the unique quickness, power and complexities of the NFL. Thank god they haven’t learned from our Packers or for that matter another recent example with Mahommes.
CoachJV
April 07, 2024 at 10:47 am
Deleted for dumbassness
Coldworld
April 07, 2024 at 09:40 am
Of course it’s misdirection and double bluff season. These guys are all going to be playing in the same sand pit very soon and the margins between a good draft and bad one are decidedly slim.
There’s an older, but pretty good piece on it here: https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2014/story/_/page/hotread140312/nfl-draft-...
TKWorldWide
April 07, 2024 at 02:01 pm
Man, as kids we used to take Oreos apart and make our own double bluffs. Now they sell them that way. Shoulda patented our idea.
Oppy
April 07, 2024 at 09:56 am
"Look at the Bears a few weeks ago. They did a horrendous job of it considering they only received a conditional 6th-round pick for Justin Fields. Still, they were trying to run a smokescreen for whether or not they were going to keep Fields or draft Caleb Williams with the first overall pick."
Actually, this is proof positive they weren't trying to run a smokescreen. If you trade away your starting QB when you don't have anyone really waiting in the wings two months before the draft, and you have the #1 overall pick in the upcoming draft, where a very highly anticipated QB is expected to go #1 overall... that's literally just making it plain and simple to the world you are taking a QB. That is no smokescreen, not even an attempt.
I assume Virginia McCaskey and the group down south of us was attempting to "do right" by Justin Fields to let him latch on somewhere early and get comfortable in his new city with his new team.. Definitely no attempt at deception.
Coldworld
April 07, 2024 at 10:03 am
When you have the number one pick, things are a little different. Even if they don’t want the QB we all expect, making him seem their obvious pick just pushes up the premium if anyone wants him more. If they do want him, they just take him with no awkward overlap.
Leatherhead
April 07, 2024 at 02:42 pm
Yeah, when you have the first pick, you don't have to fake anybody out about what you're going to do.
I will point out, that the list of QBs taken #1 overall who have won a Super Bowl is exceedingly short. Mannings and Elway. Lots of Baker Mayfields, Cam Newtons, Jameis Winstons, etc. in that group. The list of QBs NOT taken #1 overall who have won a Super Bowl is much longer.
Oppy
April 07, 2024 at 04:57 pm
I would like to expand on that, and I will point out, that the list of QBs taken #1 overall is exceedingly short.
Only 24 since 1967 (doesn't include supplemental drafts.)
That's out of 840 QBs drafted total in that time frame.
That's my own work, but then I got lazy and just found this article:
https://theathletic.com/5256546/2024/02/08/super-bowl-quarterbacks-histo...
Basically, about one out of five super bowls have been won by a QB who was the #1 overall pick in the draft.
Soo.. 24/840 = ~2.8 percent of all QBs drafted since the Superbowl era were #1 overall picks, but that 2.8% of QBs account for nearly 20% of all Superbowl winners. That's pretty effing impressive, actually.
Oppy
April 07, 2024 at 10:05 am
My only hopes for the 2024 draft are this:
1) The Bears actually WERE throwing a smokescreen, and they pick up a DE with the #1 pick, throwing the entire board into disarray
2) Gutekunst picks either a WR or a QB in the 1st round, because the only thing I like more than seeing who the Packers are going to take in the draft, is watching Packers fans lose their ever-lovin' minds over who the Packers took in the draft.
CoachJV
April 07, 2024 at 10:44 am
What the %$&# just come out your mouth boy?
Oppy
April 07, 2024 at 11:53 am
You heard me, and I meant every word of it
:)
Bitternotsour
April 07, 2024 at 12:18 pm
the collective mind explosions would be beyond delight. Great for Cheesehead TV too, months of spleens being vented. Oh the humanity.
Leatherhead
April 07, 2024 at 02:53 pm
I remember when we took Gary, after the collective cogniscenti here repeatedly listed him as a guy they hoped we wouldn't take, and then his rookie year, playing behind ZSmith, he was repeatedly referred to as a bust and/or wasted pick.
One of my boys graduated from the Air Force Academy at 21. He wasn't immediately put on the front lines, or in some command position. He spent a year getting some special training, then another year at another place getting more. And he definitely got bigger and stronger between 21 and 24. Finally, he was ready to contribute, and he assisted numerous people in their quest for 70 virgins.
But in the NFL, that 21 year old is supposed to go out and dominate guys who are older, stronger, and more experienced. I think it's unrealistic.
murf7777
April 07, 2024 at 12:54 pm
Yep, maybe talking about Love pick a few years back...lol. Gutey was hated by 80% on this board and now he is beloved by those same folks. Same with Mlf.
When they picked Love, I was ecstatic. Thinking here we are using a premium pick, and trade up as well, to take a QB when we already have a HOF one signed. YES, Let'em learn under the best and blossom later. Hmmm, it worked before so why not try it again.
Since 1990 or the hiring of Ron Wolf by Harlan, we are one of the smartest franchises in the NFL.
Leatherhead
April 07, 2024 at 02:56 pm
I remember being unhappy last year that we took Reed in the 2nd, thinking that was far too early to draft a shorter WR. My unhappiness didn't last long.
Bitternotsour
April 07, 2024 at 03:23 pm
exactly why i never have a dog in the fight at draft time. i don't shake my Christmas packages prior to opening them.
justjan
April 08, 2024 at 12:51 pm
"WE"?
CoachJV
April 07, 2024 at 10:43 am
I can see the chess match that likely takes place between GM's when it comes to the draft.
However I think the media is completely in the dark, just as we all are. Mock drafts are great entertainment, but aside from the top 5 picks, the rest is always as wrong as it can get... LOL
dobber
April 07, 2024 at 11:22 am
...and your second paragraph fuels the DIC and gives the pundits plenty of "WTF?" clicks until October.
Alberta_Packer
April 07, 2024 at 12:40 pm
Agreed. Some activities are more fun in the dark.
skydancer506
April 07, 2024 at 07:46 pm
"Mock drafts are great entertainment..."
As long as you are the one doing the Mock Draft simulator. If you are reading everybody else's Mock Drafts, no, it is not great entertainment. I'm tired of these sites writing their headlines with "Packers Ship Explosive Receiver To Division Rival" only to find that it is some dumbass who put together yet another Mock Draft that has no basis in reality and no trade is actually being discussed with anybody. (Sigh) Then I realize that I've been duped again. I don't even read mock drafts anymore.
GregC
April 07, 2024 at 10:47 am
The Amarius Mims interview is probably a smokescreen because he's 6'8" and weighs 340 pounds. I don't think the Packers have ever drafted an offensive lineman who weighed much more than 320. The only thing that makes me think Mims is a possibility is that the Packers have been taking a long look at Caleb Jones, who is enormous (and was undrafted). Still, I would be very surprised if they drafted Mims.
Bitternotsour
April 07, 2024 at 12:19 pm
and they've never done it... until they do it. it only takes one.
Leatherhead
April 07, 2024 at 02:59 pm
I think the Packers like their two starting OTs, and I think it's unlikely we'll use pick #25 on one. Especially when we have some many alternatives at #41, #58, #88 and #91.
Alberta_Packer
April 07, 2024 at 12:47 pm
Foreshadowing - when Mims pulled a muscle in the Combine - resulting in a DNF?
It would be a daily injury watch if the Packers drafted Mims.
Leatherhead
April 07, 2024 at 05:52 pm
I'm sure there are guys at 1265 who remember Sherrod and Spriggs, two OTs we drafted early and who couldn't stay on the field. They also probably remember Day 3 guys like Bakhtiari and Tauscher. This is why these guys make the big bucks.
splitpea1
April 07, 2024 at 11:07 am
I'm definitely hoping this is the case with a few of these guys--like Mims, Cooper, and Hopper. Mims and Hopper are projects (the latter is undersized as well), and do we really need two Quays? If we end up going OL in the first round, we should be landing a more experienced and polished prospect-- damn the raw athleticism and potential.
Coldworld
April 07, 2024 at 01:27 pm
Hopper is a hybrid SS/cover LB. If we are interested in that type then it will start to tell us about Hafley’s D. In the past he’s liked big SS and slot guys.
splitpea1
April 07, 2024 at 03:11 pm
There might be a place for him on STs, but from what I read he's not a great tackler.
LLCHESTY
April 07, 2024 at 03:36 pm
He's not a bad tackler, he's a horrible tackler. He made 45 and missed 17 last year. 🤢Big nope on drafting him.
Coldworld
April 07, 2024 at 05:42 pm
He’s a very big SS being viewed as an ILB, which does mitigate the bad tackling somewhat. Ulofoshio Is not much better and he’s bigger. These guys are not 3 down players but they might help in roles.
Alberta_Packer
April 07, 2024 at 06:27 pm
I would also add James Williams S (U. of Miami) to this group. Safety / LB / ST /PS ?
Alberta_Packer
April 07, 2024 at 11:53 am
If a smokescreen truly exists - then I nominate Edgerrin Cooper as GB's candidate. He's been often linked to GB via need, mock drafts, pre-draft visit etc. Even some mocks have the Packers taking him in the 1st round. However, apparently he has interviewed poorly and I don't think he pairs particularly well with Quay Walker. My hope-wish is that all of this has come to the attention of ole Jerry Jones - who with the #24 pick - will select Cooper. Not only because Cooper is a Texas Aggies but also because the Cowboys are in need of a LB. Still, I'm not completely dismissing the notion that Jones may also select Cooper as a revenge pick - if he thinks that Cooper is on the Packers board. Thereby attempting to inflict an injury to the Team that thrashed his - for all to see - on Jan. 14.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
April 07, 2024 at 08:44 pm
Just out of curiosity, what are your sources for Edgerrin Cooper allegedly not interviewing well? Ive been following his draft journey closely as hes one of my favorite players in this draft and I have yet to hear a single negative about his character.
Duhawk_47
April 10, 2024 at 10:42 am
I hope the Cowgirls take him as well. He's really intriguing as a prospect due to the raw ability, but my concern is that we'd have two Quay Walkers on the field, if we select E. Cooper. Neither of those dudes are very effective at getting off of blocks. So if we were to roll out McDuffie, Quay, and Cooper as our base package ILB's, we'll be playing with at least 2 WILL linebackers. I realize it's not the 90's anymore but this roster could really use at least one off-ball guy who can take on interior lineman and keep Quay clean to make plays.
Leatherhead
April 07, 2024 at 02:44 pm
You can watch the tape, talk to the coaches, look at his RAS scores, etc., but some people are people you just want on your team, and some people you just don't. Those face-to-face visits probably go a long way towards answering that question.
LeotisHarris
April 07, 2024 at 03:31 pm
Gute, or Captain Charade as he's known to his fellow GMs, is a master of deception and distraction who will often use a red herring to create a smokescreen under pretense to mask a ruse. Brian Gutekunst, if that is indeed his *real* name, mixes lies with the truth and should not be trusted. If his lips are moving, it's a sham.
I wonder if it's possible to overthink this sh*t?
LLCHESTY
April 07, 2024 at 03:43 pm
It is kind of funny that their 1st rounders are almost always a surprise. The only general consensus pick they had in the last 20 years was HaHa and we know how that turned out.
Leatherhead
April 07, 2024 at 05:53 pm
""I wonder if it's possible to overthink this sh*t?"""
That's exactly what they want you to think.
LeotisHarris
April 07, 2024 at 08:38 pm
Well played, sir!
TKWorldWide
April 07, 2024 at 08:54 pm
LOL
You are at the top of your game, sir!
Qoojo
April 07, 2024 at 04:02 pm
I just don't understand how in the world you could possibly give the bears an A for effort! :)
Duneslick
April 07, 2024 at 06:55 pm
I would give them an F for only getting a conditional 6th rounder
canadapacker
April 07, 2024 at 05:48 pm
Not that I am an expert - but a long time follower - a lot closer in retirement - but I am of the opinion that we need to look at the near future and not just the present or the long term. The near future means over this year , next year and maybe year 3. That being said - we need to get a defense/ST that can win games for us - or at least not lose games for us. Too often in the past we seem to have not given as much thought or coaching to that end. AR should have had a better defense and not had only him leading us with superior play. So this year - I would like to put most of our high draft picks on the defense. For 2 reasons - firstly we need an upgrade with this new DC and the holes that are there. Secondly we have a pretty good Oline and a QB that can move around. So unless some sort of phenomenal Oline prospect falls into our draft slot - Focus on the D and ST - especially on those guys who are willing and able to stick their nose in and make plays and especially tackles
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
April 07, 2024 at 08:42 pm
Gute has told us repeatedly that he operates on 3 year windows.
TKWorldWide
April 07, 2024 at 08:57 pm
Speaking of “3 year windows”, my house has ten year shingles. Does that help?
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
April 07, 2024 at 08:41 pm
"General Managers Without A Plan: The Chicago Bears Story"
gsd3
April 08, 2024 at 05:44 am
My best guess is gutey will trade up for Barton. Followed up by taking Cooper in the 2nd if available.
He loves those RAS guys.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
April 08, 2024 at 08:36 am
If theyre gonna trade up, Id like to see then move close to the top 10 and snag Quinyon Mitchell. Dont trade up for an interior linemen. Thats not their style.