The Packers cap space for 2020 is depleted.  At present, the team has about $11M in cap space under the Rule of 51.  However, the team must deduct a little more than $2M to sign its draft class (net), plus another $3M to pay for the practice squad and for the 52nd and 53rd contracts.  That would leave the Packers with about $4.8M heading into the season.  Last year the team had to pay roughly $3.3M to players on the IR and PUP lists who did not have game active bonuses in their contracts.  Unless the Packers release another player or restructure someone, it appears that they are done with free agency this year and that any carryover of cap from 2020 into 2021 will be negligible. Some players might reach incentives.  I have been unable to find any details about Funchess' $3.75 million incentive package or how easily he might earn them.

Perhaps the team's cap situation for 2021 looks brighter?  Sadly, the answer is no, it does not.  I looked at Sportrac and Overthecap (OTC) to calculate the Packers' cap situation for 2021.  You can read OTC's summary here.  OTC does list the Packers with over $52M in cap space, which sounds pretty good, but the column that is closer to reality is the one noted as "effective cap space," which comes in at $38.356M.  However, even that number is not real.

First, OTC assumes that the NFL salary cap will increase to $215M for 2021, a healthy $16.8M (8.48%) increase over the 2020 limit.  Remember that the cap has been increasing by about $10M per year (6 percent, including just 5.3 percent last year).  There have been some reports suggesting that the salary cap is expected to greatly increase for the 2021 league year to as much as $240 million (a massive increase of $41.8M), but I can only find one person, Matt Verderame of Fansided, who indicated he had sources for an increase.  You can read his article here.

Those with longer memories will recall that the NFL expected the cap to increase in 2011, but instead it went from $123 million in 2009 to uncapped, $120M and then $120.6M in 2012.  Things got so tight for teams that the union and NFL made some side agreements to modify the just-passed CBA.

Second, OTC calculated its effective cap space by looking at how many players are signed for 2021.  The Packers have 30 players signed but it will have at least 51, so OTC multiplied 21 times the 2021 rookie minimum of $660,000 ($13.86M) and deducted it from the cap space to reach $38.35M.  There is no way the Packers will have 21 players on the 53 man roster making the rookie mimimum.  Last year there was one at the end of the season, Allen Lazard.  Still, that difference might be perhaps $1.5M or so.

Finally, the Packers will again have to deduct $10M to $11M for signing draft picks, the PS and the 52nd and 53rd players, plus $5M for churn.  So, let's assume that OTC's estimate that the cap will increase to $215M is correct.  After deducting the $11M noted just above and the $1.5M since the team will not have 21 players earning the rookie minimum, the spendable cap amount might be about $25.75M ($38.356M minus $12.5M).  If the team is fortunate there might be a modest carry over.

The Packers have relatively few players whose release provides significant cap savings in 2021, and its contractual liabilities are high.  The Packers have 30 players signed for 2021 whose cap numbers add up to about $163 million.  That is a lot (23rd in the NFL), but only Davante Adams, the Smiths, Kirksey, Rodgers, Amos, Wagner, Turner ($3.55M), and Lowry ($3.3M) provide significant cap savings.  The Packers need these players to play well (pending the draft or intermal development of players already on the roster). 

Finally, the elephant in the room is the Packers' list of unrestricted and restricted free agents.  It is long and full of players who at present are expected to either start or contribute.      

The RFAs include Sullivan, Lancaster, Greene, Tonyan, Boyle and Kumerow.  Barring a collapse during the 2020 season, Sullivan is a lock, and Lancaster is likely to be tendered.  The Pack probably will draft a defensive lineman or two, and it is possible Keke improves.  Greene probably needs to show he can play more than two games per year.  Kumerow would have to have a strong year.  Boyle might depend on whether the Packers acquire another quarterback.  All of these players originally were undrafted.

The 2020 tenders were as follows: $4.61M for a first round pick, $3.26M for a 2nd, and $2.13M for the right of first refusal.  I would guess that Sullivan gets the 2nd round tender, and Lancaster might but probably gets the low tender instead.  The others should not get a tender but the Packers can try to sign them for less.  $5.39 million minus the rookie minimum times two leaves a net cost of $4.07M. 

The UFAs:  Bakhtiari, Linsley, Lane Taylor, Kenny Clark, Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams, Kevin King, Funchess, Ervin, Marcedes Lewis, Will Redmond and Montravius Adams.

Bakhtiari: Gutekunst talked a lot about extending Clark but not much about Bakhtiari.  His market is probably $20M AAV.  The non-exclusive franchise tag for offensive linemen was $14.78M in 2020, so the tag would underpay Bakhtiari (as long as he is an All-Pro left tackle).  The Packers could extend him now and save a bit in 2020 on his current $14.7M cap number.  Cap numbers of $14M, $17M, $20M, $23M and $26M over five years works.  I would suggest a 2021 cap number of $12M to $14M for 2021. 

I do not think the Packers would let Bakhtiari walk.  If one of the top four offensive tackle prospects drops to pick 30, the Packers should pounce.  Note that Ben Solak of the draft network as well as many mocks suggest the top four prospects will be off the board by pick 14 or earlier.  

Linsley: He turns 30 years old in time for the start of the 2021 season.  The fifth highest paid center currently has an AAV of $11M and the tenth highest paid earns an AAV of $9.5M.  Linsley should be in that area.  He would probably have a $6M to $7M 2021 cap hit.  Look for the Packers to draft multiple interior offensive linemen.

Taylor: He might not make the team in 2020. 

Clark:  I have argued that Clark is not worth $17M AAV since he is not a DE and he is not a 4-3 DT.  Perhaps he can play 4-3 DT.  The highest paid nose tackle was paid $11.25M but he was released.  The franchise tag for DL was $16.12M in 2020.  It sounds like the Packers are going to pay Clark.  10M, 13M, 16M, 19M, and 22M averages out to $16M.  Perhaps he will have a $10M cap number for 2021.

Aaron Jones:  Elliott got $15M AAV and the fifth-highest RB earns $8.4M.  The franchise tag for 2020 actually decreased to $10.28M and the transition tag was $8.48M.  The Titans applied the $10.28M tag on Derrick Henry and Arizona put the transition tag on Kenyon Drake.  I have not heard Gutekunst say much to the point about paying running backs.  Length and guarantees are probably more important than AAV.  For now, watch how Henry and Drake play out and pencil in $10M as a 2021 cap hit for Jones.

Jamaal Williams: The Pack keeps him if they decide to let Jones walk.  If the Packers keep Jones, Williams would have to be very reasonably priced:  the Pack does like him, but money is low. 

Kevin King: Even when Healthy King is not above average.  The 20th highest paid CB earns $9M AAV. Buster Skrine, the 33rd highest paid earns $5.5M AAV.  The Packers are a little short on CBs even assuming Sullivan plays well unless Hollman, Ento or someone they acquire shines.  I would suggest $6.5 AAV with a 2021 cap hit of $4M.

As for the rest, Lewis will probably retire and Montravius Adams might not even make the team in 2020.  Redmond and Ervin probably get a modest amount, maybe a bit more if Ervin shows something as a gadget player.

Recap: $4M for the RFAs, $18.5M for the offensive linemen, $10M for Clark, $10M for Jones, and $4M for King equals $46.5M minus $4.62M (7 times the rookie minimum) leaves a net of $41.88M.  I suggested above that the Packers only had $25.75M in spendable cap for 2021, leaving the team $16.1M short.

The salary cap might increase by more than $16.8M.  The Packers could pay just 40% of AAV as a first year cap hit to fit more players in under the cap.  The Packers might restructure Rodgers' contract again.  Converting $15M in salary and roster to a signing bonus would increase 2021 cap space by $10M at the cost of pushing his 2022 and 2023 cap numbers to $44.85M and $33.352M, respectively.  It will be interesting to see if Gutekunst will try to have a seamless transition or if he will just assume that the Packers will be bad after Rodgers retires or leaves and shed dead money then.  If the latter, then Green Bay pushes the $44.85M cap hit down with another restructure.  2021 is a contract year for Davante Adams, so an extension would be the only way to gain cap savings from him.

While long term it is better to draft based on talent over need, my win-now mode tugs me in the other direction.  It will probably work out.  When the Packers are on the board, there should will be several prospects at different positions (including need and positions that help save cap space) that I like a lot, or Gutekunst might trade back, which in general sounds like a good idea in this draft.