The 9-3 Packers travel to Ford Field for Thursday Night Football to take on a surging 11-1 Lions team. Both division rivals took care of business at home on Thanksgiving to all but cement their status in the postseason.The division is going to come down to the wire (that includes those pesky Vikings who keep finding ways to squeak out wins), and a win on Thursday would certainly help Green Bay’s chances of claiming the North. Here are six things to keep in mind heading into the NFC North contest. 

1. Lion in Wait

The Lions are on a 10-game win streak after a one-score loss to the Buccaneers all the way back in Week 2. Despite a close call against Chicago on Thanksgiving, Detroit continues to find ways to win football games. It’s the league’s best offense in points for, averaging a whopping 31.9 points per game. Defensively, the Lions aren’t far behind, ranking third in the NFL and allowing an average of 16.9 points per contest. 

The Packers are trending in the right direction, winning their last three straight out of the bye week (with their loss before the bye coming from Detroit) and averaging 29.3 points per game  in that span. On defense, Green Bay has allowed an average of 15.3 points over that three-game stretch. The offense has been turnover-free for two straight, and the defense has forced turnovers in two straight after a two-game period without one. 

Per the dope sheet, the Packers have won five straight NFC North road contests going into Thursday Night Football. Since realignment in 2002, that five-game stretch is tied for the second longest by Green Bay against NFC North teams, behind only the seven-game winning streak from 2019-2021, when Matt LaFleur took over as head coach. 

2. Best in the Game

Both Xavier McKinney and Kerby Joseph are tied for the NFL lead in interceptions with seven apiece. That’s two more than anyone else in the league. In the first meeting between the Lions and Packers, Joseph returned Jordan Love’s lone interception for a touchdown. It was the only turnover of the game, and the Packers defense was never able to generate one of their own. 

Using Pro Football Focus metrics, Joseph and McKinney are the two highest-graded coverage safeties in the NFL, with a 91.1 and 90.6 coverage grade, respectively. Joseph is allowing a 54.5% completion percentage with a long of 51 yards. McKinney is averaging a 63.6% completion percentage with a long of 33. Both safeties have two passes defensed and have allowed under 200 yards in coverage this season. Joseph averages 16.2 yards per reception and McKinney allows an average of 14.1 yards per reception. The numbers are eerily similar for two of the very best at their position. 

While the two will see each other in Orlando for the Pro Bowl at the very least, both safeties clearly have their sights set on something bigger. Joseph’s last interception came in Week 11 against the Jaguars while McKinney’s came in Week 12 versus the 49ers. Both will be looking to pull ahead in the race on Thursday Night Football under the lights. 

3. Rolling into Ford Field

Love posted the highest regular season passer rating of his career against the Dolphins last Thursday with a 129.2. He’s played interception-free ball the last two weeks and looks back to his true form after nagging injuries hampered him for much of the first half of the season. In fact, three of his four highest passer ratings this season have come in the last three weeks. 

Through his 10 games this season, Love has thrown for 2,518 yards with 20 touchdowns and 11 interceptions (which is no longer tied for the league lead). His 20 touchdowns are tied with Josh Allen for sixth in the league, despite playing in two less games than the rest of the quarterbacks (three in Lamar Jackson’s case). Love is averaging 8.2 yards per attempt and 251.8 yards per game. 

In the run game, Josh Jacobs has five straight games with over 100 scrimmage yards. In those five games, he’s scored seven touchdowns. He had just two in his first seven games this season. His 987 rushing yards rank third in the NFL, and Jacobs needs just 70 more scrimmage yards to put up the second-best scrimmage totals of his career (the best being his 2,053-yard All-Pro season in 2022). Even crazier is that he still has five more games to do it. Jacobs is PFF’s third-highest graded running back out of 58 candidates with an overall grade of 90.7. 

It’s a balanced Packers offense that ranks eighth in passing yards and fifth in rushing yards. The unit has also been improving in the red zone, scoring a touchdown on 55.1% of trips which is good for 15th in the league. Over the last three weeks, the Packers have gone 11-of-15 in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on 73.3% of trips. 

Jayden Reed leads the receiving core with 693 yards and seven total touchdowns, though four pass catchers have 450-plus receiving yards this season. They’ll need all the fire power they can get on Thursday night going up against a Detroit defense that’s first in third down stops, second on fourth down conversions, and second in red zone defense, allowing a touchdown just 41.9% of the time. 

4. Super Smith No 

A familiar face is back in the NFC North. Za’Darius Smith was traded to the Lions in November to help bolster a pass rush that’s been decimated by injuries (but more on that in a bit). Smith spent three seasons in Green Bay (playing in two) and registered 26 sacks in green and gold before joining the Vikings in 2022. After a 10-sack season with Minnesota, he was traded to the Browns and played a season and a half opposite Myles Garrett before his return to the division. He’s played in three games for the Lions this year and has registered two sacks with six quarterback hits in those contests. His seven total sacks this season already exceed his 5.5 sacks with Cleveland in 2023. 

Smith has a 79.4 grade per PFF and is ranked 18th out of 114 eligible edge rushers. The Lions are still trying to make up for the loss of Aidan Hutchinson, who was the first overall edge rusher by PFF metrics with an elite 94.9 grade. As a team, Detroit has 30 sacks this season, though 7.5 of those were Hutchinson’s doing. As of now, Alim McNeill is first on the team with 3.5 sacks, followed by D.J. Reader with three and Josh Paschal, Malcolm Rodriguez, Trevor Nowaske, and Smith with two each. 

After a slow couple of weeks, Detroit’s pass rush heated up on Thanksgiving with a five-sack performance against Chicago. Unfortunately for the Lions, the Packers have a much better offensive line than the Bears. Zach Tom is PFF’s seventh overall tackle out of 76 qualifying prospects with a grade of 84.8. He’s been one of the very best at his respective position all season. 

The same, of course, can be said for Detroit’s offensive line. Right tackle Penei Sewell is one of the few players graded out above Tom, coming in at fourth in the NFL using PFF metrics with a grade of 89.5. The Packers have 32 sacks on the season and benefited from a five-sack performance themselves on Thanksgiving night. If left tackle Taylor Decker is a true game-time decision and is unable to play on Thursday (he has yet to practice this week with a knee injury), that could go a long way for Green Bay’s edge rush. 

5. Black and Honolulu Blue

In the first matchup between the rivals, the Packers were struggling through a number of injuries. Love was dealing with a groin injury he suffered a week prior in Jacksonville. Center Josh Myers was out, and both Jaire Alexander and Evan Williams were missing from the secondary. 

For Detroit, Hutchinson was missing along with Rodriguez and Paschal. The lack of pass rush firepower would explain why the Lions didn’t register a single sack in that first meeting. It might not get any easier on Thursday night, even with the addition of Smith. 

As mentioned previously, this is a Lions defense that’s been rocked by injuries all season, but specifically these last few weeks. Rodriguez was just placed on injured reserve with a torn ACL, ending his season. Linebacker Derrick Barnes is on IR with a knee injury, and Alex Anzalone has been sidelined on IR with a broken forearm, though he may return late in the season. Defensive lineman Mekhi Wingo suffered a knee injury against the Bears on Thanksgiving and was also added to injured reserve this past week, ending his season, too. 

Both Paschal and Levi Onwuzurike suffered injuries against the Bears last week, and Head Coach Dan Campbell remains honest about both players, saying he isn’t really optimistic about either being able to play against Green Bay. This also isn’t including Reader who has yet to practice all week with a shoulder injury. This is about as battered a front seven as you’ll find in the NFL. 

The bright spot for Detroit, though, is that both Emmanuel Moseley and Carlton Davis should be good to play on Thursday night, though Moseley has a better shot than Davis, who Campbell still considers day-to-day. 

For the Packers, the team is getting healthy at the right time. Both Alexander and Romeo Doubs have been at practice this week, though Doubs is still going through the concussion protocol. Rookie linebacker Edgerrin Cooper and backup cornerback Corey Ballentine are the only players not currently practicing for Green Bay. 

6. Crowded North

With three NFC North teams sitting at nine-plus wins, the division couldn’t get more crowded. No other division has two teams with nine wins, let alone three. And the Eagles are the only other NFC team to have hit the nine-win metric already this season. 

The Lions, Vikings, and Packers have a combined six losses this season, and three of those losses have come against one another. Each team has only one loss that isn’t against an NFC North rival (or in Detroit’s case, one loss period). 

Things won’t get any easier down the stretch, either. The Lions finish the season against teams with a 38-22 record. The Vikings finish against teams with a 37-23 record. And the Packers end the season against teams with a 36-24 record. That includes three division games for all three teams. It simply can’t get any closer in these final five weeks of the regular season.