How Much Can The Packers Spend On Veteran Reinforcements?
Overthecap lists the Packers with $14,294,880 dollars in salary cap space. As always, we need to adjust that number for expenses that are almost as certain as death and taxes, and for other expenses, some of which will have to have to be educated estimates.
The Packers have signed all of the draft picks except for their two second round picks, Luke Musgrave and Jayden Reed. Overthecap projects that Musgrave's cap number will be $1.54M and Reed's should be $1.31M, a total of $2.85M. Signing those two players would push the 50th ($889K) and 51st ($870K) contracts off the books, a total of $1.759M. The net loss in cap space to sign these two rookies should be about $1.091M.
The two remaining picks should sign soon. The most important date is the start of training camp. Rookies are scheduled to report on July 21, though training camp doesn't start until July 26. The CBA has some other important dates. Rookies that have not signed their contract by 30 days prior to game one cannot be traded and can only play for the team that selected them. Rookies must sign by week 10 of the regular season if they want to be eligible to play for any NFL team in 2023. There is no reason to suspect that the Packers will have any difficulty signing Musgrave or Reed.
Other debits include an in-season piggy bank of $5M for PUP/IR, injury settlements, and acquisitions, $3.456M for the Practice Squad (it could be a little more if the Packers sign some veterans to the PS) and the 52nd and 53rd contracts which currently add up to $1.76M (though that last number is subject to an adjustment explained below). These expenses total $10.216M. That reduces the Packers' available salary cap space to $2.989M.
There are three other items to consider. Last year the Packers elevated a player from the PS to the game-day roster 18 times. Elevating a player making a $12K per week PS salary to the roster on game days increases the cost of that player (assuming his minimum is $750K) by about $32K per game, or $578K over the course of the season. We fans need to wait for training camp and preseason games before guessing which players the Packers will release and try to sign to the practice squad. It seems possible that they might try to sign some veterans to the PS if they keep a particularly young 53-man roster, which would be the case if Gutekunst keeps all or most of his 13 draft picks. It seems possible that the Packers might try to slide players with some experience to the PS, guys who know the scheme and could step in and play right away, to the practice squad. Jonathan Garvin ($1.01M minimum so he would have a net cost of $47K to elevate), LaDarius Hamilton ($940K/$43K extra/elevation), Patrick Taylor and Chris Hanson (each $940K/$43K), perhaps Corey Ballentine ($1.08M/$51.5K extra to elevate) and one or two of Innis Gaines, Tarvarius Moore ($1.08M/$51.5K extra), Jonathan Owens ($1.01M/$47K) all come to mind.
Players on second contracts could earn their full game active bonus in 2023. Both Bakhtiari and Jenkins have bonuses of $600K, or $35,294 per game. Bakhtiari missed 6 games, Jenkins 2, for a potential extra charge of $212K and $70K, respectively. Jaire Alexander ($650K bonus) missed one game ($38K) and Devondre Campbell ($400K) missed 4 games ($23K times 4 = $94,117), for a total potential extra charge of $414,704. While the 2022 team had some injury issues, for the most part they were not to players with game active bonuses.
Other players with game active bonuses for 2023 include Aaron Jones ($900K), Preston Smith ($600K), Clark ($550K), Nixon ($500K), Douglas ($450K), Rudy Ford $320K) and Leavitt ($170K). We fans would like to see all these players suit up for every game in 2023. Sadly, this category tends to even itself out as players miss time in 2023 with injuries, so I am going to enter a $0 for this category. That said, since potential extra costs for players earning their game active bonuses counts against the cap immediately, the Packers at least have to keep this number in mind.
Another category is incentives. However, there is no penalty if the Packers exceed their salary cap space because they had to pay players for their incentives. The amount by which the Packers exceed the cap due to incentives simply rolls over as a debit against the 2024 salary cap. While I am sure the Packers would prefer to be able to count payments for incentives against this year's cap, it is not necessary and therefore I will enter $0 for this category.
| Category | Cost | Cap Space $14.294M |
| Unsigned Draft Picks Musgrave and Reed | $1.091M | $13.204M |
| Piggy Bank - IR/PUP, injury settlements | $5.00M | $8.204M |
| Signing players to the practice squad | $3.456M | $4.748M |
| 52nd and 53rd contracts | $1.76M | $2.989M |
| Elevations from the Practice Squad Estimate | $600K | $2.389M |
| Potential ($414K) NLTBE GA bonuses Estimate | $0 | $2.389M |
| Incentives | $0 | $2.389M |
ADJUSTMENTS:
There are a number of players whose salaries/cap numbers are not reflected in the numbers above because their cap number is less than the the player with the 53rd highest cap number. I think WR Dontayvion Wicks, QB Sean Clifford, DL Karl Brooks, and K Anders Carlson are extremely likely to make the 53-man roster. Those four players would have to fall flat on their faces during training camp for them to be relegated to the PS. CB Carrington Valentine, S Anthony Johnson, one or two of WRs Grant DuBose, Bo Melton, Jeff Cotton, and Malik Heath, OLB Brenton Cox, DL Chris Slayton, and RBs Lew Nichols and Tyler Goodson all seem to me to have a reasonable chance or better to make the regular roster. I also expect one or two of Caleb Jones (10 games active, no snaps), Rasheed Walker (7 games active, 4 ST snaps) and Luke Tenuta (3 games played, 7 offensive snaps, 18 special teams snaps) to make the 53. The Packers could pick up $500K to $1M in cap space depending on which players make the 53.
| Player | Cap # | Players in Danger | Cap # | |
| Clifford | $831K | Tyler Davis ($30K dead) | $1.04M | |
| Wicks | $825K | Jonathan Garvin ($20K dead) | $1.03M | |
| Brooks | $803K | Jonathan Owens | $1.01M | |
| Carlson | $789K | Tavaris Moore ($50K dead) | $990K | |
| Valentine | $775K | Jake Hanson | $940K | |
| Lew Nichols | $774K | Patrick Taylor | $940K | |
| Anthony Johnson | $771K | LaDarius Hamilton | $940K | |
| Grant Dubose | $769K | Tenuta, Caleb Jones | $870K | |
| Heath, Cox | $753K | Kiondre Thomas, Gaines | $870K | |
| Goodson, Melton | $753K | Corey Balentine ($60K dead) | $1.0M | |
| Slayton, Cotton | $750K | Shemar Jean Charles ($120K/2 dead) | $1.0M | |
| Etling | $750K |
I do not actually think Tyler Davis is in much danger, unless a veteran blocking tight end gets cut later this year. But, I do think 6 to 8 players from column one will make the regular roster, which means a corresponding number of guys listed in the Players in Danger column have to go. True, there could be a surprise cut, perhaps Tariq Carpenter. What I have concluded is that it seems very likely that the Packers will save hundreds of thousands of cap dollars at cutdowns. I would even suggest that no matter how you mix and match, $500K in savings or more is likely, but we have to wait for training camp to see how exactly how many of these youngsters seriously challenge for a roster spot. [Yes, I did read the Lombardi Avenue article that suggested releasing Pat O'Donnell in order to save $1.25M, but his holding is excellent and he is a proven punter. The rookie punter, Daniel Whelan, would probably have to knock the socks off of the coaching staff.] At worst, I think these roster decisions will produce enough savings to insure against the NLTBE game active potential cap charge.
WAYS TO GENERATE CAP:
Wendell wrote an article just yesterday noting that the Packers could extend Rashan Gary to gain about $3M. I think that is a natural amount to save on an extension, so it could be a bit more if the Packers departed from their usual methods.
They could try to persuade Nijman to do a max-void-year-restructure (MVYR), which would indeed save $2.579M in 2023. I don't know what Nijman and his agent are thinking as to a long-term extension. Perhaps Nijman thinks he still has upside in general, or that playing a full year at right tackle will help him improve his performance and better position himself for a big contract in 2024. That said, a $10M signing bonus in hand sounds good, too. The Packers would have to seriously deviate from their usual contract structure to give Nijman a long-term deal that simultaneously provides 2023 cap savings. A MVYR could make sense as it would guarantee $3.22M in cash to Nijman; after all, Nijman isn't a vested veteran, so his $4.3M base salary does not become guaranteed just because he plays in game one.
The Packers could try to persuade Runyan to sign a MVYR, which would save $1.386M. I assume that Runyan would prefer a long term extension. I was surprised to see that only 20 guards (out of the 64 starting RGs and LGs) make over $7M AAV. Connor McGovern (the guard, not the center) just signed with Buffalo for $7.45M AAV, and it appears to me that Runyan might be the better guard. Again, the Packers would have to use a weird structure to extend Runyan while still gaining cap space.
CONCLUSION:
The Packers have about $2.389M in spendable cap space. For one player, that would be $2.389M plus the $870K contract that would be displaced by such a signing, so the veteran could have a cap number of about $3.26M, or about $4.13M for two outside players. Would that move the needle enough at some positions? As Wendell noted yesterday, the Packers could generate almost $7M more in cap space, though at the cost of dumping dead money into 2024.
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Comments (73)
Thegreatreynoldo
July 13, 2023 at 06:08 am
I am curious from a roster construction standpoint how the Packers decide to approach the 2023 season. Is it an evaluation and get the salary cap healthier year? Are they going to aggressively try to make the playoffs? I expect the Packers to extend Gary, but I wonder how much they really want to restructure Nijman and Runyan. Extending Runyan can be done, but it would cost perhaps $1M in lost cap space for 2023 if they use their traditional space. I guess I am thinking $7.5M AAV for Runyan. Nijman might be $9M per year?
Lots of comments about which position need fortifying the most. I've read safety, DL, TE, WR, and QB. I can make a case for all of them, but my choice would be safety. Then again, this team is a little thin in some areas. An injury might make a position now thought to be okay and turn it into the problem child.
T7Steve
July 13, 2023 at 07:03 am
"Is it an evaluation and get the salary cap healthier year? Are they going to aggressively try to make the playoffs?"
TGR, I think they can do both. In this division, they can work to get the SC healthy AND make it to the playoffs without getting more (at least expensive) help. Gute is good at and can always steal a player after training camp cuts if there's any important injury / injuries.
Guam
July 13, 2023 at 08:35 am
Have to disagree with the "aggressively" part T7Steve. I think the Packers might have a shot at the playoffs due to a weak division, but if aggressively means shelling out money for one year rental veterans in order to make the playoffs, I don't see it. I think this is a year to gain much needed experience for QB1 and his receivers as well as clean up the cap for a push in 2024 or 2025. Save the money for when it can count toward a shot at the Super Bowl, not just the playoffs.
T7Steve
July 13, 2023 at 10:14 am
That's what I thought I meant too, when replying to TGR's quote.
Thanks Guam.
Guam
July 13, 2023 at 11:39 am
After re-reading, you did mean that! I just got hung up on the "aggressively" which was actually TGR's word and not yours. Thanks for your patience with someone who should read better!
T7Steve
July 13, 2023 at 01:00 pm
Well, it wouldn't hurt if I could write what I'm thinking and think what I mean. LOL
Have to give props to the people writing the articles, because they seldom screw up like me.
SicSemperTyrannis
July 13, 2023 at 10:51 pm
TGR, I'm hoping they bank anything left over and add it to the cap next year. Play the yutes! See what's needed in next year's draft, and free agency. Realistically this team is hoping for a run in 2025. IMHO nothing is more valuable than developing and evaluating the talent currently on the roster, and that takes all season.
NickPerry
July 13, 2023 at 06:24 am
Thanks TGR for this. This stuff makes my head swim at times but I appreciate the way you break it down. Makes it much easier to understand because damn, it's a LOT!
packerbackerjim
July 13, 2023 at 08:35 am
It is a little more digestible, but still has the effect of listening to a life insurance salesman drone on while the eyes glaze over.
stockholder
July 13, 2023 at 06:47 am
I wouldn't let any of the veteran players slide to the PS.
Were in a re-build. We're still in cap trouble.
Gute is at his best-
when finding replacements from other rosters.
Thegreatreynoldo
July 13, 2023 at 07:33 am
My thought was put the youngsters on the 53 and have some more experienced guys on the ps. Patrick Taylor and Hanson on offense, and Garvin, Eric Wilson and perhaps Hollins fit the expensive vet on the PS. That is, the min if elevated is $50 or $60K per week as the min is 940K to $1.01M.
The PS for Vets is $16K per week min and $20.6K per week max when on the PS . Rookies cost exactly $216K, or $12K per week.
dobber
July 13, 2023 at 10:20 am
In the end, though, it seems that there's only one or two banks to tap into yet for very modest return. Even cutting or pushing fringe vets (Davis, Leavitt, etc.) to the PS only nets you pennies.
Thegreatreynoldo
July 13, 2023 at 01:51 pm
"Didn't take too long 'fore I found out
What people mean by down and out"
I got excited when I wrote the adjustments paragraph and realized that GB might net $500K or more on roster decisions, especially since they don't probably need to be done specifically to save money. With $2.whatver million spendable, and me thinking spending $1M of that to extend Runyan might be a wise long-term move, finding a possible $500K seemed like manna from heaven, like it was raining money.
SicSemperTyrannis
July 13, 2023 at 11:04 pm
TGR, this really helps. All the more I like the strategy of playing the yutes, bringing in veterans off the PS if needed for whatever reason.
T7Steve
July 13, 2023 at 07:12 am
Thanks TGR. It helps to understand a little. The vets on the practice squad rules are something we've been talking about here lately.
The more you teach me about this the muddier my brain gets. Everyone on CHTV can attest that I can't afford that.
I'm for whatever can be done to fix the SC problems and not kick it down the road any further. I don't think it's necessary to lose while we do it, but this is a young team and we'll see.
Thegreatreynoldo
July 13, 2023 at 07:48 am
If you are thinking long-term, it might make sense to extend Runyan even if it costs an extra million in cap space for 2023. He is young and pretty good, so locking him up seems like a decent idea.
I don't know what Nijman wants to do, or what he might want. They could extend him at $10M per year using their normal contract methods without increasing his cap number for 2023, they just wouldn't be able to generate cap savings through a restructure. Maybe they are waiting to see if Rasheed Walker, Caleb Jones or Tenuta look like they can play OT or at least RT at a starter's level? Locking up Nijman might make sense as well.
If they lock up Nijman and Runyan, they wouild have to settle for cap savings from extending Gary, assuming that gets done.
T7Steve
July 13, 2023 at 08:28 am
Compared to last year, the O-line is a good problem to have this season. Have to try keep them all somehow. Runyan needs to improve run blocking (with Myers) but gets no penalties.
It's still a fantasy of mine to see what Jones and Nijman could do side by side to anyone in the league in short yardage and goal line.
dobber
July 13, 2023 at 08:48 am
I think you're on the money in that they've got a lot of guys they like as developmental OL pieces, but they need to get a good look at them in camp before they decide what to do with guys like Nijman and Runyan. I find myself wondering if Runyan is a better fit on the left side rather than the right...maybe someone can pull up his rankings on each side (2021 on left, 2022 on right).
T7Steve
July 13, 2023 at 10:19 am
I think CW did that a while ago when we were having this conversation about Runyan. I do think that the move hurt him (and Nijman) more because it was right in the middle of the season and then they couldn't practice as a whole unit for the rest of the season.
dobber
July 13, 2023 at 10:23 am
I do find myself wondering whether--if LG is Runyan's better position, and if Jenkins can be just as good at RG--that switch makes sense. Remember several years ago the Packers made that kind of switch with Lang and Sitton and it turned up boxcars.
Thegreatreynoldo
July 13, 2023 at 01:53 pm
I've been thinking that Jenkins should move to OT, but I have to admit it looks like GB has better developmental options at OT than OG or center. Maybe Rhyan has figured whatever his issues were out over the offseason.
Coldworld
July 13, 2023 at 06:19 pm
Before we extend Runyon I will want to see that he can actually be at least above average in the run game. He’s now at a point where I suspect both that that will be more important than in the past and when the excuse of youth is wearing thin. If he can’t I’d rather look to move on. I do believe that the move to the right did not help Runyon, not only for the reversal of technique but because he’s exposed to more power on the right often. However, his run game prowess has always been an issue for all his pass pro merits and he needs to show he can handle that.
SicSemperTyrannis
July 13, 2023 at 11:09 pm
I don't think we can afford to lose Nijman even if he's not a starter. We need at least the 10 best O linemen, and hopefully some more on the PS. No way is he beaten by that many?
TxFred
July 13, 2023 at 07:45 am
IMO, I would pass on picking up any grey beard scratch 'n dents. First, we are reimaging this team. We have been "Hadl-ed" once took decades to recover. Second what the hell kind of a message does this send to a new, young. talented team trying to mold for the future when you bring in "ringers". Not much. GPG!!!
WestCoastPackerBacker
July 13, 2023 at 06:30 pm
The valuable message it sends is that your roster spot is always subject to competition both from guys already on the squad and guys waiting by the phone. So nothing is handed to you even if you were a draft pick.
HarryHodag
July 13, 2023 at 07:50 am
TGR-another outstanding article. The cuts this year prior to the season will be very interesting. This and next season will be the Packers in the mode of getting the salary cap back in line with real player performance.
They likely will extend Gary but they first have to see if his leg will hold up to punishment before making a long term commitment. They rolled the dice with David Bahktiari and his knee could come up snake eyes. I read an article yesterday where DB's knee was flaring up when he plays on turf.
Leatherhead
July 13, 2023 at 11:02 am
The Packers are going to have to manage the LT position. IMO, they'll put Nijman as the backup and use him to to lighten the load on Bakhtiari's knee. Short weeks, astroturf, practices.....Nijman is going to earn his money this year, and that's fine, because if he does well the job will pretty much be his next year and he'll get paid for that. A real success story, IMO, for the Packers. From UDFA to starting LT. Kind of like Lazard.
T7Steve
July 13, 2023 at 01:20 pm
People have been talking about DB not working on fake turf for a while. It seems to me that means we that we wouldn't have our best 5 playing in important division game and playoffs again.
I think he's either healthy and practices / plays with the unit, or he's not healthy and we need someone steady so the unit will stay intact and practice all the time together.
Don't you think they took the "Vet Rest" too far last season? One advantage to that was that it let Love take 1st team reps all season. He had more practice reps (besides walk throughs) than AR did, I bet.
SicSemperTyrannis
July 13, 2023 at 11:48 pm
LH, what about Mt Jones?
SicSemperTyrannis
July 13, 2023 at 11:47 pm
HH, I expect DB not to play on turf at all this year. I think that's 5 games beginning week 2, and gives Mt Jones a chance to prove he can handle the position. I think that's a good thing, and also extends DB's healthy playing time as well as helping evaluate his worth to the team before needing to make that difficult decision next season.
Rebelgb
July 14, 2023 at 03:39 pm
I dont know about DB. I have had reconstructive knee surgery and the truth is your knee is actually stronger after surgery due to the way surgery is done. Look it up, this is the case in most knee surgeries now.
The fact that his knee "flares up" playing on turf tells me there is more going on with his knee than ligament issues. Whether its bone damage, muscle damage or arthritis, its not like they are going to be specific to us about it.
Id be surprised if we have DB 8 games this year, I think that would be a bonus actually. So we need to have a plan for the other 9 and maybe even the playoffs.
croatpackfan
July 13, 2023 at 08:07 am
TGR, welcome back.
As I do not know much (in reality, just few small things) about SC and how you can move the money through the season(s), I believe in your analyses and assesment(s) about Packers SC. You rarely miss (to be completely honest, I can recall once you were miss), so you are mine "most reliable" source on that issue(s).
Thank you for your work and willingness to share all those informations.
dobber
July 13, 2023 at 08:42 am
"I do not actually think Tyler Davis is in much danger, unless a veteran blocking tight end gets cut later this year. "
I think he's a goner...he's more easily replaced by the draftees than maybe Deguara--who can be more of a FB, but might be pushed by someone like Camren McDonald--is, but I would be feeling added pressure to perform if I were either of those guys. Certainly there are newer guys in the incoming group of UDFAs/draft picks that turn the TE room over.
greengold
July 13, 2023 at 09:55 am
I thought same early on post draft, but have reconsidered. Tyler could very well be a key depth piece given Musgrave & Kraft’s injury histories. Having Tyler on this roster would insure 12 & 13 Personnel concepts to be used uninterrupted in 2023, if an injury were to occur at TE.
TKWorldWide
July 13, 2023 at 10:06 am
I’m at a loss to say what Tyler’s strengths are. Is he a receiver? Is he a blocker? Is his familiarity with the playbook his greatest asset?
dobber
July 13, 2023 at 10:13 am
He plays on almost all special teams units.
TKWorldWide
July 13, 2023 at 11:10 am
Definitely some value there!
Coldworld
July 13, 2023 at 06:26 pm
I think he’s vulnerable but not to Deguara or the newly drafted guys. If they replace him it will be with an assignment sure true TE who can play STs. That guy is likely not on this roster but on Gute’s radar. There’s an outside chance Austin Allen can out play him, but they aren’t going to go to a new to the NFL guy as third TE in my view.
SicSemperTyrannis
July 13, 2023 at 11:53 pm
I can see starting with 4 TEs on the roster, and if JL10 develops the deep passing game swapping out a TE for another WR on the PS. Same with a RB or even 2. Best way to really evaluate everybody and also win as many games as possible.
LeotisHarris
July 13, 2023 at 08:43 am
Very helpful TGR, thanks. Attempting to follow the money is a real challenge for me with the way teams move the coconuts. I'm glad someone around here can keep an eye on their hands.
I can see Gute adding players to make us a better team, but I don't think those guys will be notable veterans. All the constant churning of the bottom of the roster stuff, you know?
greengold
July 13, 2023 at 09:10 am
This is fantastic info, TGR. I'm curious to know your thoughts on David Bakhtiari? Doesn't his $40M+ cap figure for 2024 beg for an extension now? Also, might it be possible the Packers continue clearing cap with the goal being to fit extensions in for Gary, Nijman and Bakhtiari? Those 3 players may prove to be valuable extensions for 2024 and beyond.
Then there is the Jordan Love factor. Maybe we get a few games into 2023 and an obvious green light goes on to extend JL?
Agree with your Players in Danger listing, and think Garvin, Hanson, Taylor, Gaines and Charles will face the greatest challenges to make the roster.
Thanks for the great write up!
Leatherhead
July 13, 2023 at 10:54 am
From "Bakhtiari should be traded/will be traded" to an extension for Bakhtiari? I'm getting whiplash here.
I think this is Bakhtiari's last year on the team, and he'll be traded in the offseason for a Day 2 pick. All assuming that he stays healthy and plays well. We shouldn't put anymore money into him, IMO.
Yes, Love will be given a new deal. He's going to be our QB for a while and people need to get used to that idea.
I'm all for keeping Gary, Nijman, and Runyan.
greengold
July 13, 2023 at 11:22 am
Yeah, whatever, man. I mean, that was all just guesswork months prior to the draft... and, it was a possibility. BFD. You sound like someone else we've known to lurk in these parts... Why do that? I thought he would follow AR to the Jets. Didn't you? Even a little? I think all of us thought it was a possibility back then.
Good luck trading him next year with a $40M cap hit.
That's my whole point. Trading him without putting forth an extension offer this year would be near impossible, and, why trade him if he finds GB a place where he would want to finish out his career? All dependent upon his reliability and good health this year, but, maybe he comes back stronger and has a good season. Bakhtiari remains one of the best LTs in the NFL. Top 10 for sure. 31 years old. He's got another 4-5 years of solid top level play in him if he stays healthy.
He'd make for a great team leader moving forward, all-in. I'd give Bakhtiari and extension tomorrow to 1. get out from under that $40M hit next year, and 2. to insure top level play at the 2nd most important position on any football team.
Could easily see Bak getting a mid season extension. Hell, him signing one before TC wouldn't surprise me either. Talk about an elephant in the room!
dobber
July 13, 2023 at 12:44 pm
"Good luck trading him next year with a $40M cap hit. That's my whole point. Trading him without putting forth an extension offer this year would be near impossible..."
Anywhere 69 goes, he's going to get a reworked deal from his new team....and remember that under his current deal, a big chunk of his cap hit stays in GB. I don't think anyone would give much more than a used jugs machine for him if he was only going to play one year. I also don't think the Packers want to be the ones to rework his deal and get stuck with the accelerated cap hit of the guarantees that would require in 2024.
"...and, why trade him if he finds GB a place where he would want to finish out his career?"
Because the Packers have an interest in where he finishes his career, too. I think it might come together in an extension if the Packers decide they've whiffed badly on their OT prospects and don't have much choice. I expect him to get at least one veteran rest day per week, but in the end, they need him this year, and they need him to play lots--and look like his old self doing it.
T7Steve
July 13, 2023 at 01:27 pm
I thought the cap hit was ours regardless if he gets traded next year or not from kicking his singing bonuses down the road. I thought the only way for it to help would be to keep him and resign him to another contract. I'm sure I must have missed something somewhere.
Maybe he didn't follow AR because the Jets play on fake grass?
TarynsEyes
July 13, 2023 at 11:36 am
I agree that Bahkt has to go. It should be an 'Out with the old and in with the new' so the team can start as fresh as possibly can, while maintaining as much of a winning franchise as possible. Yes, they might suffer a hit, but as like the Dodgers in baseball, they did it this season, and though a drop in success, they're still in the running and tied for 1st place. Spending was cut, and next year will be a force again with youth and money to spend on player(s) that WILL make a huge difference in making them dominate, again. A one-year step back is not a franchise killer, unless you overpay for aging players to reminisce recent/present failures, live on TV or at the stadium.
Thegreatreynoldo
July 13, 2023 at 11:57 am
LH, I've already written an article on what to do with Bakh. That article is in the queue. So, until then, I have to keep my powder dry.
greengold
July 13, 2023 at 12:06 pm
hahaha. Can't wait!!! Great stuff, TGR.
Coldworld
July 13, 2023 at 06:40 pm
If, and I think it is a big if, there are genuine concerns about Bakh ‘s ability to play in turf, then I question why he’s still here, regardless of his undoubted ability. Personally, I think that’s probably a nexus chatter thing. If not, trade him now.
SicSemperTyrannis
July 14, 2023 at 12:00 am
At the risk of stating the obvious, TC with pads on won't show if anybody can fill DB's shoes. Regular season games can, and that opportunity needs to be created somehow. If DB is better than anybody else on the roster, $40MM is not too much but giving him a longer deal might bring that down. (And without void years, please)
Leatherhead
July 13, 2023 at 10:27 am
So....we're not in cap hell? We've actually met all the financial obligations we've had to meet? And we don't have to push any more money into the future if we don't want to?
If so, I am shocked. Shocked, I tell you. For months I heard a non-stop chorus of "Cap Hell, Cap Hell", caused, of course, by the incompetence of the front office. And here we are, on the cusp of training camp, ready to put a pretty good team on the field. I don't understand how this might be possible [/sarcasm]
Ok, I got that off my chest. It seems at this point that we're not dealing with big numbers, like $50 million, but a bunch of smaller numbers, most of which do not HAVE TO be addressed at this time. Yes, we're going to want to talk about Nijman and Gary and Savage and Runyan and Dillon and all the other guys who aren't under contract for 2024, but there's no real action necessary. If Russ Ball can tidy it up WITHOUT pushing more money into the future, that's cool, but I just think it's a little premature to make decisions on some of these guys until we've watched them in games this season.
greengold
July 13, 2023 at 11:43 am
By the grace of God, Woody Johnson had to have it all now... If not for that, might be a much different scenario.
We also have quite a few players with anywhere from 1 to 4 VOID YEARS currently on this roster, and I've got ZERO CLUE how that all works!!! LOL.
For instance:
Kenny Clark has $5.5M, $5.5M and$2.7M VOID attached to our cap for 2025, 2026 and 2027. How exactly does that work? Nobody's really talking about that, but, he's one of a large group of Packers players with a like number of VOID years attached into 2027.
Jaire Alexander has 1 VOID in 2027 for $2.7M.
Aaron Jones has 3 attached for $2.5M, $2.5M and$1.7M in 2027.
Preston Smith has 1 VOID in 2027 for $1.7M.
De'Vondre Campbell has 1 VOID in 2027 for $657k.
Rasul Douglas haș 3 attached for $834k each year through 2027.
Keisean Nixon has 4 attached for $370k each year through 2027.
Darnell Savage has 4 attached for $1.364M each year through 2027.
I'm left wondering what the impact of those are??? What if a player with multiple VOID years remaining on his deal gets cut at roster cutdowns? Do all of them cumulatively accelerate as DEAD CAP charges?
Leatherhead
July 13, 2023 at 12:52 pm
Kenny Clark...$14M over three years.
Aaron Jones..$6.7M over three years.
Not huge numbers, IMO. Clark will still be playing for us over the next couple of years. Jones...probably not, but he's less than half of Clark.
You've also got Savage, who might be playing with us during that period..
After that, the numbers get a lot smaller, and they start involving people who probably won't be around in 2027. It'll be dead cap, but not a crippling amount.
If we cut a guy who has a bunch of void years, then I would assume it would accelerate , but it looks to me like they didn't do the void years with guys they want to cut. We're not cutting Clark, or Alexander, or Jones, or PSmith, or Campbell, or Douglas or Nixon or Savage. At least not this year. All totaled, it's only about $10M total in 2027.
We're in a much better place, cap-wise, than we were a couple of months ago. We can make moves that we want to make, instead of moves we have to make. If there's an older, expensive vet on the team that's a favorite player of anybody, they should enjoy that this season because they aren't going to be around much longer.
Thegreatreynoldo
July 13, 2023 at 01:43 pm
I agree that the cap is in better shape. The cap for 2024 won't be terrible. They might be able to spend a little if that means nothing more than a mid-tier guy or two, assuming they dump Bakh at some point or extend him. GB is $20M under the estimated cap per OTC.
Their UFAs might be Gary, Runyan, Nijman, Dillon (estimated by spotrac at $4.6M AAV to re-sign), Deguara, Nixon, Rudy Ford, O'Donnell and Savage. Only Nixon and Savage would have dead money due to void years, and it would be just $1.48M for Nixon and $5.45M for Savage. They could extend either of them in time to prevent most of that from hitting the 2024 cap. They again won't be major buyers unless it is to replace their own UFAs with free agents from other teams.
Guam
July 13, 2023 at 11:45 am
I think the cap hell went away when Rodgers left. His departure made the 2024 and 2025 salary caps a lot easier.
greengold
July 13, 2023 at 12:01 pm
No question, Guam. I don't think we're out of the woods though, and that the Packers will still be feeling the impact of clearing that much space on the cap to make that trade possible for at least another year. Maybe more, depending upon how the VOID years work.
The bulk of it? Yeah, gone, and it clearly took some creative cap maneuvering to make it all work. Extensions moving forward for some players should provide relief as well.
I think it's going to be very interesting to see how they further invest in some players, or if they decide upon a different path and choose not to.
Coldworld
July 13, 2023 at 06:44 pm
We bought our way out of a self inflicted cap he’ll by 2024 with the trade of Rodgers and the 40 million in dead cap this year. That’s why we should take the medicine, blood players and avoid kicking cap into the future this year for anything other than dire injury driven emergencies.
greengold
July 13, 2023 at 07:05 pm
Right. We’re in better shape in 2023 but not out of the woods by any stretch.
I keep thinking the deal may have been consummated last year, giving the Jets & GB time to get their ducks in a row and make it all happen by draft day 1 2023. Just a thought.
Leatherhead
July 13, 2023 at 01:02 pm
If the plan was to trade Rodgers and go with the replacement they had been working on for 3 years, then there never was a cap hell, only the perception of one. Which was my point, even back then.
We still have some medicine to swallow, and it's going to come in the form of paying Bakhtiari to play somewhere else in 2024. We'll probably get a Day 2 draft pick to help the medicine go down a little easier.
I want to kind of put this on the radar. With the Jets #1 next year, and a Day Two pick for Bakhtiari, plus our own 1st, 2nd,and3rd round picks, we would be looking at adding 5 premium players, Top 85 type guys, in the draft next year. A RB to replace Jones/Dillon? A superduper WR? Defenders?
greengold
July 13, 2023 at 01:53 pm
Yeah. Agree. Seems those VOID year accelerate onto our cap charge though, but, nothing we can't handle.
I'm not going to debate cap hell, because it was real prior to the AR trade, and Woody was our angel. If not for him it's hard to say what the market might have been, given the huge amount of cap space any trade partner would have been required to clear.
Leatherhead
July 14, 2023 at 05:02 pm
No, it was real IF there was no AR trade. But there was always going to be a trade, if not with the Jets, with somebody.
Thegreatreynoldo
July 13, 2023 at 01:01 pm
Nobody ever prophesied that the Packers would fail to meet their financial obligations. They met those obligations by not signing anyone of note despite several glaring holes, and at the cost of letting Lazard, Reed, Lewis, and Tonyan walk. They also let Cobb, Lowry, Amos, and Barnes walk, but those were very likely to be correct decisions. GB signed a free agent safety for the veteran minimum in Tarvarius Moore, a position he has played at a less than stellar level for five or six hundred NFL snaps, plus a street free agent in Jonathan Owen for the vet. min. and a long snapper for the vet. min. plus $100K.
The team does have a decent amount of talent. If all goes well, and some of the highly drafted guys in the 2022 and 2023 drafts are reasonably ready to contribute, and they have uncommonly good health, the Packers could vie for a playoff spot, especially in the depleted NFC. They desperately need Watson to stay healthy. And they need Love to be pretty good despite having one of the worst looking set of receivers in their WRs and rookie TEs.
I am not particularly for generating cap space to try to make the playoffs. I like having a good offensive line (as you do), so locking up Runyan makes sense to me, even if it costs cap space in 2023. I don't think Nijman is good enough to be the long-term starter at OT; I think the team will be looking for someone better if they extend Nijman. If they do get $3M in cap savings from Gary, I'd be fine with rolling over $5M into 2024.
Leatherhead
July 13, 2023 at 01:13 pm
That's a little disingenous. You know as well as I do that there was a daily torrent of lamentations about how the ineptitude of our front office....the clowns.....had engineered this "train wreck" of a "dumpster fire".
I'm not saying you were one of them.
You're looking at the guys we let walk; I'm looking at who is coming in the door, for less money. Lazard leaves, Reed arrives. Tonyan leaves, Musgrave arrives. Lewis and Kraft. Lowry and Reed replaced by Wooden and Wyatt.
We're going to be competitive this year. I don't see the glaring holes. Our starters on both sides of the ball are set and the only real question mark is at safety. As you mentioned, if things work out right, we could make the playoffs. I think that when the season ends, by most objective measures, our offense will have improved since last year.
T7Steve
July 13, 2023 at 02:06 pm
Is that a little more sarcasm LH?
"I think that when the season ends, by most objective measures, our offense will have improved since last year."
Let's set the bar higher than last season. LOL.
No matter who starts on it, the O-line is going to be one of the better NFL units which will make the running game click and hence, open up the passing game.
I think we can start by comparing this season to when the line was at its best in 21. The line might even compare to early 2020. That will give the youngsters time to grow.
Leatherhead
July 13, 2023 at 02:49 pm
The line should be better....if nobody gets hurt. Watson and Doubs and Toure will all be better than last year. Musgrave and Kraft and Reed are going to help as much...maybe more...than Tonyan and Lewis and Cobb did last year.
And I think if Love is an average-ish starting QB (That'd be somewhere between 12 and 20 in QBR) then we should be better than last year, when our QB had the league's #27 QBR (39.3)
If Love has a QBR in the 50s, like Mariotta and Garrapolo and Kenny Pickett, we'll be much improved at that position. Hell, he might even be as good as Jacoby Brisset or Geno Smith...Top 8 talent!!!
Steve, I know he was a 4 time MVP and a HOFer and everything, but if you set all that aside and just look at what he did last year, you saw an average/low average QB playing for the Packers.
Thegreatreynoldo
July 13, 2023 at 02:21 pm
Well, I have my moments. The real cap hell would have been if Rodgers had played one more year in GB. That would have been really bad in 2024. As Guam wrote, thank heaven for Woody Johnson.
I think if GB had normal cap resources, they would have signed a starting safety. Maybe two. And a 4th DL. And a 3rd TE who can play, or at least block. I also think LaFleur wants to play more 2 TE sets. Rookie TEs have a history.
I am also concerned about the "X" wide receiver, the WR who is usually required to be on the line of scrimmage. I think Watson can play X, but then he can't go in motion. Doubs had trouble against press, so I don't think he is a great candidate until he shows he can counter press coverage. I don't think Toure or Reed are good candidates. Wicks? Dubose? 5th and 7th rounders don't fill me with confidence. I should think that they might have some candidates for the jet sweeps in Reed (especially if he does indeed run a 4.37 forty - nothing like that blinding speed), and they can be effective with guys who have just good speed like Doubs. After all, Tyler Erving made it work quite well with 4.41 forty speed at the combine in 2016.
I actually am looking forward to the 2023 season. It will be interesting. I like roster construction, and player evaluation, though I don't have as good of an eye for evaluating players as GG, or Pack Eyed Optimist, or any number of other posters who I just made into enemies by failing to mention them! I still remember arguing with RC over DJ Reader. I had him as a fifth round talent, which is where he went, so I guess I was right (?) until he played so well and earned a pretty big second contract. So, that seems like an a large error in evaluation on my part.
Leatherhead
July 13, 2023 at 02:56 pm
If you imagine Musgrave being a hybrid TE/WR, it makes our receiving corp makes more sense, I think. Kraft as the 6th OL, Watson and Doubs outside. Musgrave comes in....are we in a double TE set? A 3 WR set?
If he's a WR, and they play nickel against it, that leaves them with six run defenders against six offensive linemen. If he's a TE, you almost have to play man on Doubs and Watson with a single safety because you need bodies against that 7 man line.
greengold
July 13, 2023 at 04:07 pm
Never a worry. I think Wicks is going to surprise as a great X candidate. Possibly DuBose in time. In 2021 Dontayvion Wicks had 57 rec, 1201 yds. 21.1 ypc, 9 TD, QB Rating when targeted 128.5.
He's not the fastest guy, at 6-1 206 with a 4.62, but he's got unique acceleration to get behind defenses. Very quick with a great release. Ultra competitive, often dragging defenders after the catch. About as nuanced route runner with like releases. Threatens stems with vertical push. Varies speed and pace. Super deceptive to defenders with elite ball skills. Elite balance, start, stop, burst. Very strong hands any WR Coach would covet. Plays fast & explosive, able to stack corners with that uncanny speed to then get behind them.
Wicks was a really interesting pick. Super tough too. 80" wingspan in the 87th percentile. 39" vertical in the 88th percentile. 10" hands.
He dropped in the draft because the Virginia football program became a dumpster fire in 2022.
WestCoastPackerBacker
July 13, 2023 at 06:59 pm
Glaring holes? Huge questions at safety as Savage regressed and Amos left. It’s a bunch of maybes to try to fill the other starting position and any backups. How about defensive line? Slaton and Wyatt are still unknowns. Slaton has started 2 games and never played more than 1/3 of the defensive snaps in his two years. Wyatt has a grand total of 15 tackles in the NFL despite being a first round pick. He couldn’t beat out two journeyman guys in Reed and Lowry.
The receiving corps is a huge question mark with a total of 88 catches for the entire group. Every other NFL team has at least one player with that many catches all on his own. The last two guys to win a Ring our gone with a rookie kicker and a promising but entirely unproven new signal caller. There is very little experience or production for the TE group. The number of TEs that are drafted and don’t do much are high.
You say there are no glaring holes. Well I get being excited about the young squad but in most years we would consider this team full of glaring holes. We always relied on a hall of fame talent to overcome those holes. But he’s gone. I do see the irony in finally investigating in the TE and WR positions just as he was headed out the door. I hope you are correct that there are no glaring holes but for that to happen a lot of the draft picks have to pan out really well and only about 1/3 usually do throughout the league.
LeotisHarris
July 13, 2023 at 07:33 pm
If I still smoked weed, I'd spend the rest of the evening pondering a team filled with glaring holes.
Also, uh-huh-huh-huh-huh, you said "glaring holes" uh-huh-huh-huh-huh.
Leatherhead
July 14, 2023 at 05:06 pm
Savaged regressed, In your opinion, not mne.
Slaton and Wyatt may be unknown to you, but not to the football professionals in charge. They know what we have.
We have a starter on offense at every position who was here last year. We have a starter on defense, at every position, who was here last year. Our premium picks were used on guys who'll get limited opportunities. If you think this team is full of holes, I'd be interested in your description of the Vikings or Lions
GLM
July 13, 2023 at 12:31 pm
Great analysis and number crunching, Reynoldo!
crayzpackfan
July 13, 2023 at 02:33 pm
Great info TGR
My take is very simple. Coach up what we currently have, draft 2024, rinse and repeat from 2023 (develop and stay away from expensive FA's), if we become a very competitive team by the end of 2024, in 2025, take our massive SC surplus and go get the 2-3 studs needed to play in a couple damn Super Bowl games.
This is certainly contingent on the quality of our coaching.