If the Packers want to contend in 2023, they will need to keep as many of their good players as possible while complying with the salary cap limit.  It looks to me like the Packers would have to "touch" the deals of every player with a 2nd or 3rd contract.  Here is what they would have to do to retain the core of the team while re-signing their free agents.  The Packers need $19M to get under the 2023 cap, about $30M to pay for draft picks, the PS, and have a piggy bank, and about $50M to sign most of their bigger free agents, as I noted in the 2023 Salary Cap - Trying to Contend article.

AARON JONES ($10.515M/$16.154M):

If the Packers could find $19M elsewhere, they could keep Jones on the roster until the new league year starts, and then designate him as a post-June release to gain $16.15M on the salary cap, with $5.526M dead in 2024.  They could also trade him, but since he is due $16.2M cash in 2023, he probably would not bring a high draft pick despite being a really good player, but Green Bay might still get something for him.  However, the Packers are much better with Jones and it is a long season, so having two quality running backs would be a great idea.  Here is what the Packers could do on a simple restructure:

The best thing from Jones' point of view might be a release so his new team will give him a three or four-year deal with guaranteed money.  Jones' dead money charge in 2023 at present is $9.55M on a straight release, and this restructure would increase it to $16.15M, a significant increase.  This is a true "borrow from the future" move.

PRESTON SMITH ($6.25M) [Running Total - $16.765M]:

Given Gary's injury, Preston Smith is extremely likely to be on any 2023 Packers' team.  He has a $2M base and a $7.5M roster bonus.  A simple restructure would convert his roster bonus and lower his base to the minimum.  It might look like this:

That would not be all that bad.  Smith's highest percentage of the cap was 6.6% between 2019 and 2022, but only because the Packers had to keep knocking his number down.  His $13.5M AAV was 7.17% of 2019's $188.2M cap limit.  $16.92M of the projected $225M cap for 2023 comes in at 7.52%.  While this is not that painful of a restructure, Smith does turn 32 in 2024 and his dead money has crept up (from $9.76M at present for 2023 to the proposed $13.56M in 2024), meaning it would be helpful if he can play 2 full additional seasons without regressing.  I like Preston Smith despite always wishing for a little more out of him.  

RASHAN GARY ($3.025M)  Running Total - $19.79M]:

I estimated $3.1M in savings on an extension.  Ken Ingalls just suggested these numbers for Gary's extension, which result in $3.025M in 2023 cap savings.  Ken's numbers are excellent.  The running total should be enough to meet the bare minimum necessary by March 15, 2023.

KENNY CLARK ($10.38M) [Running Total - $30.17M]:

This is already an abused contract.  It only provided $2.1M in cash payments in year two (2021) when it was signed despite being written for $17.1M AAV.  Then they did a max restructure for 2022 when some of the bigger money hit.  Now it is a mess.  Would you consider extending Clark?  What would one pay him?  He will be 30 in 2025, his first void year (which would also be the first year of new money).  He was elite in 2017 and 2018, and was a high quality starter in 2019 and 2020, but just a quality starter in 2021 and average this year.  I do not like the trajectory.  Releasing him with a post-June designation provides $16.25M in cap savings in 2023 with $13.17M dead in 2024.  The defensive line has not been good with him, and would look threadbare without him, so he is returning in 2023.  Adding another void year gains less than $700K in additional 2023 cap space.

This isn't Nick Perry territory because there would be cap savings.  With this change, the Packers have enough cap space for the 52nd, 53rd contracts, the PS, their draft picks and an in-season $5M piggy bank.

JAIRE ALEXANDER ($8.68M) [Running Total - $38.85M]:

Under a simple restructure, Alexander's cap hits would not be that dissimilar to other top 3 cornerbacks like Jalen Ramsey and Denzel Ward.  Alexander would have to play like a top 3 cornerback. 

The new running total of cap savings would probably pay for the first year of Elgton Jenkins' extension with perhaps something left over.

DAVID BAKHTIARI  ($11.28M) [Running Total - $50.13M]:

How do you solve a problem like Bakhtiari?  It is a mixed question of medical issues, still owing $39M over 2 years (none guaranteed) plus significant dead money versus a player who is still close to elite when he plays.  He is 3rd in pass blocking win rate at 94% per ESPN (Yosh Nijman came in 8th at 93% and 1st in Run Block Win Rate at 84%).  Make no mistake, though: Nijman gets help and Bakhtiari does not, particularly in pass pro.  Their PFF grades are 82 versus 66 for Nijman.  If Rodgers is the starter, there is a good chance Bakhtiari returns, and if not, then there is a good chance Bakhtiari is released with a post-June designation to gain $17.5M in cap space or traded to gain some cap space and a draft pick.  A simple restructure using his current contract length gains just $7.5M.  I think Green Bay would need more space to actually contend (they probably need more space to really contend than they can achieve), so below I have added two void years:   

Without the void years, Bakhtiairi's 2024 cap number hits $40.582M and with just one void year it would be $37.94M.  Then again, as written today (without a restructure), his 2024 cap number is $33.065M.  No left tackle can justify any of those 2024 cap numbers.  Another way to look at it is that Bakhtiari's scheduled dead money charge is $23.131M next March, while under this restructure above it is $22.857M in 2024, about $275K less, so the restructure just pushes roughly the same dead money charge a year further out.  With this move, the Packers probably can sign Jenkins, Lazard, Tonyan, and Lewis.

DEVONDRE CAMPBELL ($2.46M) AND RASUL DOUGLAS ($1.585M) [Running Total - $54.175M]:    

Campbell is due $4.45M in cash between his base salary and his $3M roster bonus.  The Packers could convert $3.285M to a signing bonus amortized over his 4 remaining years to save $2.46M.  That would add $821K to his cap numbers in 2024, 2025 and 2026.  Campbell turns 30 in July.  The numbers are not big enough to really move the needle too far in any direction.

Rasul Douglas is due $4.25M in base salary plus his roster bonus.  The Packers could convert $3.17M to a signing bonus prorated over his remaining two years to gain $1.585M in cap savings.  Adding void years would increase that number. His cap number would be $5.18M in 2023 and his new 2024 cap number would be $12.35M.

OTHER:

The Packers could gain over $5M by adding 4 void years to Darnell Savage's $7.9M one-year deal.  I see no incentive for Savage to agree to that and have no idea what he might demand.

The Packers could convert as much of Nijman's $4.3M RFA tender as allowed to a signing bonus to save $2.582M.  They did that with Tonyan with mixed results.

The Packers could re-sign Dean Lowry ($3M dead) and Adrian Amos ($7.95M dead) before their dead money accelerates.  Amos has a $2.258M proration for 2023, so signing him early for $5M would mean he would play in 2023 with a cap hit of $7.258M (with $5.692M dead in 2024) instead of not playing for Green Bay with a dead money hit of $7.95M.  I would imagine that Amos would want to see what his market value is during the legal tampering period before signing what would essentially be a one-year, $5M deal, but that is too late to prevent the full $7.95M from hitting the 2023 cap.  

You can look at the numbers from Ken Ingalls' tweet.

CONCLUSION:

I suspect there would be too many holes to really contend even if the Packers kept all their guys and re-signed Jenkins, Lazard, Tonyan, and Lewis (or used the excess cap space generated on some other unrestricted free agents). 

If Aaron Rodgers retires (or is traded), perhaps the Packers restructure Preston Smith and Kenny Clark while extending Rashan Gary to comply with the cap.  They could then trade Bakhtiari and/or Aaron Jones to gain more cap space (enough to get through the 2023 season) and get some sort of draft picks.  Or they could wait for the new league year to start and release Bakhtiari and Jones to gain $17.5M and $16M on post-June designations while leaving the contracts of Preston Smith, Campbell, Douglas and Alexander alone.  That, however, is a discussion for the next article on the 2023 salary cap.

SIDE NOTE - RELEASE OF SAMMY WATKINS/JAIRE ALEXANDER:

The Packers released Sammy Watkins to gain a roster spot for Patrick Taylor.  They also reap gap gains, particularly now that the Ravens claimed him (and his contract) on waivers, making them responsible.  Despite being released, as a vested veteran, Watkins could have made a claim for base pay for the last three weeks of his $1.12M base salary.  Now that he was claimed, he can no longer make such a claim.  $1.12M divided by 18 weeks is $62,222 per week, times three yields a cash and cap savings of $186.67K.  He also will no longer be active for the last four games at a further savings of $77.64K.   Altogether the Packers saved $264.3K by waiving Watkins.

Jaire Alexander was named to the Pro Bowl on the original ballot, triggering a $250,000 escalator.  Oh well, easy come, easy go.