Will the Packers Still Own the Bears?
Time to focus on Game 1 of a new era.
OK, time to put the pre-season in the rear view. Even if we weren’t Packers fans, the opener in nine days between Chicago and Green Bay would rank as one of the most fascinating week 1 matchups of the year.
The historic rivalry; the endless podcast/talk radio/fan-base sniping; the rant heard ‘round the world from Aaron Rodgers … these factors alone should interest any NFL aficionado. But most intriguing is that we don’t know what these two transformed franchises are going to look like on the field. For the first time in years, preseason projections about them are worthless. Even the oddsmakers aren’t sure, ranking them roughly even (and not very high) in their chances to make the playoffs.
Let’s look at what we do know:
Three key Packers’ advantages
— No question, Green Bay has the better overall roster. Stocked with promising talent, every position group should favor the Packers with the exception of linebacker and safety. The Bears are in year two of a full teardown/rebuild after decades of directionless ineptitude, and have a ways to go. The Packers, despite losing Rodgers and a slew of other veterans, have a bunch of ascending youngsters, many of whom have at least one year of experience under their belts.
— The Bears’ offensive line, which looked to be improved with off-season moves, is banged up and forced to shift into combinations that have had little time to mesh. This would be a big problem even if the Bears didn’t have some other serious weak spots. Meanwhile, the Packers’ recent draft class significantly bolstered the pass rush, and it could be a very long day for Chicago’s offense whether or not Rashan Gary is at full speed. Ironically, the Bears will be relying on ex-Packer Lucas Patrick to step in and play a crucial role in this one.
— Green Bay’s new-look offense will be a challenge for early-season opponents because there is little tape to study. One of Green Bay’s problems during Rodgers’ reign was a level of predictability due to his many requirements and preferences. Defensive coordinators in the first few games this year will have to guess when it comes to planning for what Matt LaFleur will bring.
Three key Bears’ advantages
— Chicago strengths on offense are Green Bay’s weaknesses on D. Once again last year, the Packers struggled to stop the run, finishing 26th in yards per game allowed. The number one rushing team last year? The Bears. Injuries held Khalil Herbert to 13 games last season, but he tallied more than 700 yards, averaging 5.7 yards per carry, tied for second among running backs league wide. D’Onta Foreman and impressive rookie Roschon Johnson are bruising, A.J. Dillon types who complement Herbert’s big play ability.
— Running quarterbacks have long been the stuff of nightmares for the Packers (not to mention the rest of us), and all Justin Fields did last year was flash the possibility he might be better at it than anyone. All in all he ran for 1,143 yards in only 15 games, averaging 7.1 yards per carry. That was good for seventh best rusher out of *all* running backs and QBs.
— I’m a card-carrying member of the ‘In Bisaccia We Trust’ club, but the Packers’ kicking situation is hardly ideal. The kind of inconsistency Anders Carlson has shown so far could cost the Packers wins in close games, of which there will likely be several. And now the team is going with a new punter. Daniel Whelan has an alluring leg, but his consistency, cold-weather performance and ability as a holder (for a shaky place kicker) are question marks.
The bottom line
This is a sneaky-important game for the Packers. They should win — perhaps even handily — and it sets up well as an early test of LaFleur’s scheme, and Jordan Love’s ability to run it. Confidence is sky-high at 1265 Lombardi Ave. coming out of a successful pre-season, so a loss would be a splash of ice water in the face, and raise questions about the team’s post-Rodgers direction.
On offense, I’ll be looking at early-down performance as a bellwether for the post-Rodgers scheme. Love’s potential notwithstanding, he is deeply inexperienced, and the less he faces third and long the better. Motion and varied looks, heavy play action and working the middle of the field will be critical. The O-line will need to earn its money in both pass protection and the run game. If Love stays composed and relatively error free, and the team racks up at least 150 rushing yards, it’s hard to imagine Chicago keeping up.
And then there’s Joe Barry’s defense. We’ll see if Fields has improved as a passer, which would seriously complicate matters. If he hasn’t, one can imagine a scenario in which Matt Eberflus and Luke Getsy pull a Belichick and just basically don’t throw the ball, preferring to ground and pound with their backs and designed runs by Fields. Or at least until the Packers prove they can stop them. This would also chew clock and keep the Green Bay offense off the field.
One of the many confounding things about Joe Barry’s soft-zone approach has been that it relies on top-tier linebacker and safety play to succeed. Yet these positions are precisely where the Packers are weakest, particularly at safety. If Barry doesn’t transition to more of a man-coverage scheme that better matches the strengths of his personnel, it will be a very long and painful season in Green Bay.
The Packers are going to need execute on their run fits and gap integrity while keeping Fields from breaking containment with big chunk plays. I would hope Barry aggressively stacks the box, forcing the Bears to rely on Fields’ inconsistent arm. Fields might even warrant a spy. Devonte Wyatt and TJ Slaton should be an upgrade from Dean Lowery and Tyler Lancaster in supporting Kenny Clark and stopping the run. And we have to hope Barry has learned his lesson and allows Jaire to follow DJ Moore wherever he goes. He’s the one serious receiving threat that needs to be neutralized.
In a season of changes, a dominating, identity-defining performance by Green Bay would be particularly beneficial for this youthful team. GPG.
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Jonathan Krim grew up in New York but got hooked on the Packers — and on hating the Cowboys — watching the Ice Bowl as a young child. He blames bouts of unhappiness in his late teens on Dan Devine. A journalist for several decades who now lives in California, he enjoys trafficking in obscure cultural references, lame dad jokes and occasionally preposterous takes. Jonathan is a Packers shareholder, and insists on kraut with his brats. You can follow Jonathan on twitter at @Jkrim.
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Comments (57)
Savage57
September 01, 2023 at 06:12 am
This year's game 1 to establish who owns the Bears is going to be the NFL equivalent of a foreclosure auction.
And Jordan Love will be the guy standing on the courthouse steps carrying a briefcase full of cash.
porupack
September 01, 2023 at 03:17 pm
Savage, that is already the quote of the year .....so long as the packers win. Sweet.
NickPerry
September 01, 2023 at 06:22 am
"Ironically, the Bears will be relying on ex-Packer Lucas Patrick to step in and play a crucial role in this one."
NOW, if we could just get them to take Royce Newman the "Ownership" would be complete and gone full circle.
stockholder
September 01, 2023 at 06:44 am
We're in a weak League.
If they can't beat the Bears.
They won't beat the Lions.
LLCHESTY
September 01, 2023 at 03:08 pm
I think the league overall is pretty strong, especially in the AFC.
Coldworld
September 01, 2023 at 07:12 am
This game is going to be a big test of LaFleur and Barry. Will the team come out of the gate fired up and with effective schematic design and tactics?
I have to say that the willingness to lose Ford and not upgrade upon him concerns me. The Bears need to run and they need that not just to be Fields. They need to have success between the tackles to make room for his runs. If we aren’t going in able to go heavy, what do we intend as a counter strategy? Not giving ourselves that option I’d tactically like tying an arm behind our own backs.
Maybe Gute resolves that in the next week, but the release suggests it was a risk worth taking because his type wasn’t a priority for the coaches. We are going to see if this staff can get it done. This roster is young, but it’s talented. Will they boost it or hold int back?
LambeauPlain
September 01, 2023 at 07:44 am
I was surprised Ford made the initial 53 and was not surprised he was cut along with Carpenter to make room for Anderson and Sims.
Ford didn't impress me much. Did he improve over his rookie year. Sure. Big jump...like an apparent Enagbare jump? No. Big guy, can plug a hole I guess, but he is not quick and is kind of a plodder. Not adding him to the PS was also not surprising.
I do appreciate your observation that Slaton can't go 50 snaps at Nose. Kenny can spell him but that subtracts his snaps at DT. I wonder if we see some 4 man fronts vs bares by throwing Van Ness at DE in the mix/match with the other 5 DL guys? Talk about a wrench for the run first bares!
murf7777
September 01, 2023 at 08:21 am
I also wasn’t impressed with Ford. He didn’t look good to my eyes this pre-season. Just because he’s a big guy doesn’t mean he can play nose at the NFL level. Clark will play some Nose as you suggest and he is very good there. In addition, in today’s defensive schemes many times you don’t even have a nose on the field.
LLCHESTY
September 01, 2023 at 02:51 pm
That depends on if you call a 2i DT a nose. The role there is pretty much the same, controlling the center and one guard so neither can release to a LB. Clark will s plenty of snaps at 2i but Slaton could too and I don't think you want him playing more than 30 snaps. Ford also gives them the option of moving Slaton to DE if they're not stopping the run, especially in Tite front looks.
Coldworld
September 01, 2023 at 10:23 am
Ford may or may not be great (I was more impressed than you seem to have been) but the fact that we had a second guy who was a big and I think decently capable run stopper with some push was the key. We currently do not.
Much as I like Slaton and Clark, the now slimmer Clark Is better utilized at DE in my opinion. I like the rest of our group from a penetration perspective, but not against a heavy dose of the run at this point. Keeping a NT type behind Slaton gave us an option it seems foolish to ignore. Yet we seem to be trending that way. It’s a lesson one would have thought was driven home only last year.
jannesbjornson
September 01, 2023 at 11:52 am
We will see if Barry goes to an effective penetrating run stop scheme, or get flattened by an opponent going with a Power running scheme like Detroit pushed them around in the finale, 2022. If he stays static( passive) with his fronts, expect the same. Enagbare is a true Elephant guy. Will P.Smith hold the edge? The ILBs are cover guys, not gatekeepers who plug the gaps.
LLCHESTY
September 01, 2023 at 03:24 pm
Ford might only play 5-10 snaps a and but they could be important if they're struggling against the run or want Slaton to play a few more snaps in 2 DL looks.
I find it interesting the Lions, a 4-3 team, has 4 players over 315 lbs including 3 over 330 lbs while the Packers have 1. Given their struggles against the run last year this doesn't seem wise.
LLCHESTY
September 01, 2023 at 03:47 pm
Ford was just signed to the PS. I tried to link the tweet but already linked something earlier in these comments.
SicSemperTyrannis
September 01, 2023 at 11:42 pm
YAY!!
Tundraboy
September 01, 2023 at 11:17 pm
Ford's back!!
4thand10
September 03, 2023 at 12:02 pm
Ford just made it to the PS as of 9/2. I. fairly happy with that cause they can always call guys up.
LambeauPlain
September 01, 2023 at 07:14 am
The Ugly Purple is the most intense present rivalry, the bares historically. Two teams need to win every week, the Pack and who ever is playing MN...at least twice a season it is the same team.
Jonathan nailed what I see as matchup #1...Packers have to stop the bares potent run game. I like our men in the trenches verses theirs. Kenny, Slaton, Wyatt, Brooks and Wooden must set the tone. From what I have seen in preseason, they will.
What we did not see much during preseason was Kenny. I think he is going to thrive at DT, especially stopping the run
Also more speed on the DL...Brooks and Wooden are turbo charged upgrades over Lowery and Lancaster. Add in Lukas taking some snaps at DL, and the bares "work in progress" OL will be stressed.
Packers should be able to set a solid Edge with Preston, RG, and Enagbare. Hollins is a good run defender too. I have a feeling Fields may be passing sooner and more often than Getsey desires.
GPG!
TKWorldWide
September 01, 2023 at 07:36 am
I think a key will be for the Pack to get a sizable lead early. Force the RB the Bears have at QB to throw. Let GB unleash its promising pass rush on Chicago’s unsettled O-line.
T7Steve
September 01, 2023 at 07:55 am
Packer coaches jobs are won or lost by how their teams play against the Bears. Quite a few coaches from the Bears jobs revolved around this matchup too.
Let's make some coaches available.
Fields' 2nd season in a new and revamped O. Love's 4th season in an O designed to his strengths.
Maybe there's more truth than I first believed in what LH peaches about letting teams run rather than pass. I'd like the Packers to stop both, but if the Bears were so successful running the ball last season that they ended up with the first pick in the draft we might have to consider LH's approach is correct.
LambeauPlain
September 01, 2023 at 08:44 am
Lovie Smith on his first year goal as bares HC: "Beat the Packers".
MLF's first year goal: "Win our Division and a Championship."
I will remind you Steve, that the bares can run, but not pass. The first game vs bares last year Barry took LH's approach and let them run, playing stupid soft zone, the bares, sans passing, still made it a game in the 4th.
Let's stop the run and FORCE them into their weakness...passing.
Last year the Packers were so pathetic at run D, they defended the fewest 3rd downs of any NFL team! Teams were moving the chains on the ground, chewing clock, scoring, keeping games close. Why pass when you can control the game with a heavy run game?
Barryball was designed to play with a lead. It has not worked.
This year I hope the Defense plays to maximize its strengths to the opponents weaknesses. And gets off the field and puts Love and Co back on it.
murf7777
September 01, 2023 at 08:09 am
“Bottom Line——— They should win — perhaps even handily “
Let’s be realistic, nothing is going to come easy for our beloved Packers this year. That’s ok we have a 1st year starting QB with a bunch of unproven and inexperienced pass catchers so it’s going to take awhile before they gel together. In addition, they are underdogs going to Chicago.
GregC
September 01, 2023 at 08:34 am
Yeah, I didn't buy that line either. I'm expecting a sloppy game that could go either way. I'm cautiously optimistic about the Packers this season, but I have no idea what they are going to look like coming out of the gate, especially against a team with a running QB. The Bears began last season with a win at home over the 49ers in the rain.
HawkPacker
September 01, 2023 at 09:12 am
I did not buy that line either and am a bit disappointed that he would even state that remark. I think it is a toss up as we are so young with a new quarterback. Also, how will the defense play this year under Barry?
Also, the Bears got a couple of new IL studs this year.
To say we should win handily? I think based on my thoughts above it is a toss up and hope for a win. If we do win, the Bears will have to be scratching their heads. I know a lot of Bears fans that are thankful Rodgers is gone. Who would have thunk that we would agree with some Bear fans~;-))
SicSemperTyrannis
September 01, 2023 at 11:51 pm
I hereby make a motion that da Bares SUCK!
Do I get a second?
Our defense has to stop their offense. That means stopping the run, and forcing Fields to pass. If he can do that successfully? Gotta adjust.
Yes, this will reveal much about JB and MLF. I hope MLF only uses as little of the playbook as needed to win, and keeps as much as possible of it under wraps. I don't know if he has that killer instinct, but we'll find out ...
GPG!
croatpackfan
September 01, 2023 at 10:27 am
"In addition, they are underdogs going to Chicago."
Just to remind you - Packers are nobodies underdogs!"
TKWorldWide
September 01, 2023 at 01:41 pm
Bringing MM back!
Leatherhead
September 01, 2023 at 08:36 am
Will we own the Bears?
If we stuff the run, and play aggressive press coverage, and play special teams like our hair is on fire, and we have lots of 'splosive' plays, and we have a higher average in some statistically meaningful category, then yes.
LambeauPlain
September 01, 2023 at 08:49 am
"stuff the run, and play aggressive press coverage..."
Now you're talking!
jannesbjornson
September 01, 2023 at 12:00 pm
Win the Turnover battle. Love cannot give them advantage with field position. You preach it, take care of the football. Greenhorns have a tendency to force the issue. LaFleur has to give him a winning set of plays.
LLCHESTY
September 01, 2023 at 03:00 pm
Now stuffing the run is ok?🙄
Packers2020
September 01, 2023 at 08:42 am
I don't trust Barry to play aggressive man with our CB's. They were playing soft zone in the preseason this year again.
It is interesting because all our CB's want to play aggressive man and are better playing aggressive man and now we have Valentine that plays aggressive man. Yet, our D-Coordinator wants to play a soft zone. Makes no sense. Add that our HC keeps a D-Coordinator that has a philosophy that is opposite of what we have for players on defense and has not gotten it done the last two years and we have a big problem, IMO.
I hope I am wrong but I can see this defense struggling the first 3 or 4 games again this season and the defense being middle of the road to bottom 10 by the end of the year.
I just don't trust Barry.
Leatherhead
September 01, 2023 at 08:45 am
"""I don't trust Barry to play aggressive man with our CB's. """
Is it possible that he's trying to avoid giving up an explosive play?
LambeauPlain
September 01, 2023 at 08:53 am
Who wrote this?
"stuff the run, and play aggressive press coverage..."
Leatherhead
September 01, 2023 at 09:09 am
Facetiousness
T7Steve
September 01, 2023 at 09:13 am
Cazontite!
LLCHESTY
September 01, 2023 at 03:07 pm
This is wrong. The Packers played the 5th most cover1 in the league this preseason and very little cover 2 or cover 4.
https://twitter.com/The_Coach_A/status/1696296606427984356
egbertsouse
September 01, 2023 at 11:10 am
Bottom line: The McCaskeys are so dumb they make Mark Murphy look like Steven Hawking.
4thand10
September 03, 2023 at 12:09 pm
There are just not enough thumbs up for this generational comment.
Ferrari-Driver
September 01, 2023 at 11:13 am
I simply don't see it as being close and believe that the Packers have a better offense, a better defense, and will have better special team performers. We are going to have one staunch defensive front and if Justin Fields thinks he is going to run through that front, he is in for one big surprise.
WestCoastPackerBacker
September 01, 2023 at 04:27 pm
The Packers passing offense is entirely untested barring a handful of preseason series against vanilla or second/third string defenses. I just don't see how you can predict their offense as better until they've done something in a game that matters. Same with defensive front. Kenny Clark had a down year last year, Wyatt is largely untested, Slaton has a little more experience, and then two untested rookies. They all have promise, but most of them have done very little to establish themselves as consistent or reliable.
Ferrari-Driver
September 01, 2023 at 11:31 pm
How do you view the passing offense of the Bears compared to ours?
Ferrari-Driver
September 02, 2023 at 09:28 am
WestCoastPackerBacker,
"How do you view the passing offense of the Bears compared to ours?"
I'm not asking this question to be offensive, but merely to get your take on the comparison on the state of the passing offense of the two teams.
Regards, F-D
splitpea1
September 01, 2023 at 11:46 am
The Bears are an ideal team for us to start out against with our new offense. Their pass rush should be none too intimidating if our OL plays at a reasonable level. They've added some new players via the draft and FA, so the unit may not have meshed yet. We should be able to run against them as well.
On defense we have to tackle, tackle, and tackle! Get these guys down once they're within reach, including Fields. We need a solid effort from Quay--not a better time to start on that second-year jump.
And as always, keep the unforced errors to a minimum; with some snaps including a few rookies, this is what I will be watching for.
Bure9620
September 01, 2023 at 12:59 pm
I would rather the Packers own the Playoffs and make it to the Super Bowl. Rodgers "owning" the Bears and winning MVPs does not hide his terrible playoff performances. Is the Chiefs goal to "own" the Raiders? No. Their goal Is championships. The Bears suck, they are a terribly run organization. We are better than that.
Bitternotsour
September 01, 2023 at 04:04 pm
dude, it is awful satisfying owning the bears.
WestCoastPackerBacker
September 01, 2023 at 04:30 pm
Owning the Bears is part of what wins the Division, which leads to the playoffs.
And hey, it is simply NOT just Rodgers that didn't raise his game in the playoffs. The defense often failed to live up to their end of the bargain.
This article is simply NOT about Super Bowl goals. It's just about the first damn game of the season with a new QB under center. Talking about the Super Bowl is a little ridiculous until we see if Love can play well against his first opponent as the named starting QB.
Bure9620
September 01, 2023 at 05:25 pm
Then Brian Gutekuenst is also ridiculous. The goal every year for the Packers is a championship
SicSemperTyrannis
September 01, 2023 at 11:57 pm
Playoffs? PLAYOFFS?!?
Tundraboy
September 01, 2023 at 11:31 pm
I feel exactly the same with this article. Beating the Bears is great but who's kidding who. Playoff success is what matters.
Lphill
September 01, 2023 at 01:26 pm
Bears will be run heavy and we have a D coordinator that loves to play two down lineman on run downs.
TKWorldWide
September 01, 2023 at 01:50 pm
I hate that GB struggles vs the run, but I think the 2 down linemen front is just part of their nickel. If Chi has 3 WR’s in the game, I expect GB to have only two linemen.
IF GB’s base was a 4-3 instead of a 3-4, the two edge rushers would have their hands on the ground, supposedly turning a 2 man line into a 4 man line. Not sure that is so different, other than how well those edges hold the point.
jont
September 01, 2023 at 01:41 pm
Good points all, but I'm not looking at this game as anything more than another chance to beat the Bears. I won't see omens, good or bad, in the outcome fo this game. The Packers are loaded with inexperienced players, led by a promising but untested young QB, and trying to execute an offense designed to confuse. The O will be a work in progress, and the D must find an identity. Of course, I want to see them hit on all cylinders, but if they don't it won't mean anything longer term.
WD
September 01, 2023 at 03:40 pm
Bottom line. We will beat the Bears if, and only if we score more points then they do.
Tundraboy
September 01, 2023 at 11:33 pm
poot.
Forget who used to say that but it was the first thing that came to mind.
Oppy
September 02, 2023 at 12:27 am
How can you forget?
It was my favorite CHTV poster of all time, "FartsAfterWins"
He/she would waltz through here after any Packers win and drop a ">.poot.<"
Never, to my knowledge, ever posted anything else.
Genius.
WorseWisconsin
September 04, 2023 at 12:12 pm
"Green Bay has the better overall roster"
While I overall agree with this...
"with the exception of linebacker and safety"
...I don't agree with this.
Both CB and WR positional groups are close: GB no doubt has the top individual CB in Alexander, but the Bears CB depth is better. The reverse is true for WR: the Bears have the top individual WR in Moore, but GB has (slightly) more proven depth.
It's also close at RB: While GB Jones is a solid RB and is individually the top RB for both teams, the Bears had the best Rushing game in the NFL last year and have superior depth.
At TE, GB's draft picks have high potential , but the Bears have more proven NFL+ level performance. Anyone thinking GB has the clearly-better TE room is delusional.
And at QB, be honest: you know NOTHING about Love. Nothing. In every major sport it's the same deal: there are some guys that look good in the preseason and then do nothing when the games start counting. You people are high if you think you have an edge at QB. I want what you're smoking.
Tundraboy
September 05, 2023 at 06:35 pm
Lots of great posts and perspectives today! Nothing much to add other than hoping for a great 1st game to start things off! GPG