Will Joe Barry's Squad Rise To The Occasion On Sunday?

The offense is trending in the right direction. Can the defense limit Tua & Co. with the season on the line? 

Given how the season unfolded prior to the team’s Week 14 bye, the Green Bay Packers faced four must-win games to even have a shot at making the playoffs. One down, three to go, though the Packers did not come out of the bye the way that I, and many, thought they would. The offense was a bit too inconsistent and while the defense held the Los Angeles Rams to 156 total yards, including 3.6 yards per play, the coverage allowed on the touchdown pass to tight end Tyler Higbee toward the end of the third quarter was softer than you-know-what. Not to mention, the Rams’ offense was without their top-2 wide receivers and had Baker Mayfield under center, who the team signed a week prior. 

Heading into the Christmas Day matchup against the Miami Dolphins, though, the Packers’ passing offense is at least trending in the right direction, and they should be able to continue in that direction against a Dolphins defense that ranks 26th in Pass DVOA (12.6%) and 27th in passing yards allowed per game (246.3 passing yards).

And while the team’s rushing attack is also trending in the right direction -- Aaron Jones & Co. have accumulated at least 138 rush yards in the last two games -- it will not be a easy task to have as much as success on the ground as the Dolphins’ rush defense is 10th in rushing yards allowed per game (111.5 rushing yards) and 11th in Rush DVOA (-12.3%). But as has been true most of the season, if the Packers can establish the run, the rest of the offense opens up exponentially, which would be even more of an advantage for Sunday's contest given the Dolphins' inept pass defense. 

So, what about the defense? In a must-win game, can the defense step up to the plate? 

The offensive minded head coach, Mike McDaniel, coaching buddies with Matt LaFleur, is enjoying much success in his first season at the helm in Miami. The offense boasts two receivers in the top 10 of receiving yards – Tyreek Hill (2nd; 1,529 yards) and Jaylen Waddle (7th; 1,117 yards) – and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is first among starting quarterbacks in yards per attempt (8.6) and passer rating (107.8). The Dolphins are also third in passing yards per game (273.6). And lest I forget about the Green Bay playoff killer, running back Raheem Mostert. While Mostert appeared in nine total games the last two seasons, the speedster, who reached a top-end speed of 21.23 miles per hour earlier this season, has played in 13 games this season and produced 746 rushing yards on 153 carries (4.9 yards per carry). The Purdue product is also coming off his best performance of the season as he ran for 136 yards in the snow last week against Buffalo, averaging 8 yards per carry. I am sure he is giddy beyond belief to face off against the Packers' run defense that ranks 29th in the NFL. 

One of Joe Barry’s signatures throughout the 2022 season, unfortunately, has been playing soft coverage. That will not work against the Dolphins because of Tua’s quick release and also because of how McDaniel structures the passing attack. 

If there is a game plan that Barry can borrow from to limit Tagovailoa, look no further than the Los Angeles Chargers’ game plan in the team’s Week 14 victory over the Dolphins. The Alabama product was 3-of-17 at one point and finished 10-of-28 for 145 yards and 1 touchdown (65.3 passer rating). Overall, the Chargers held the Dolphins to 219 total yards and did so without star playmaker Derwin James and cornerback Bryce Callahan. 

“We knew he loved to throw inside the hashes," Chargers linebacker Drue Tranquill said, according to ESPN. "He was gonna try to get Tyreek and Jaylen (Waddle) in on those dagger routes, so we definitely packed the middle a little bit and forced him to try to throw it outside.”

Not only did the Chargers pack the middle, but they also employed press coverage, something that Barry seems to be allergic to. So, will Barry actually adjust his tendencies when defending the pass (and the run, for that matter) on Christmas Day, or will he continue to be his stubborn self and put the defense in losing spots? The season depends on it.

 

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__________________________

Rex is a lifelong Packers fan but was sick of the cold, so he moved to the heart of Cowboys country. Follow him on Twitter (@Sheild92) and Instagram (@rex.sheild). 

__________________________

7 points
 

Comments (60)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
TheVOR's picture

December 23, 2022 at 11:36 am

Sorry to say it but I believe this teams inability to get off the field on defense against third down destroys any chance we have in winning this football game. If the defense actually can get off the field we have a very good chance of winning the game, but somehow I just doubt it. It’s been the Achilles’ heel of the entire year and I don’t see it changing.

It’s like the X-files, I want to believe. It’s just not likely.

12 points
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KenEllis's picture

December 23, 2022 at 12:26 pm

Selling hope in the Packers defense, is a time honored tradition of those covering the Green & Gold.

One of these years, the hope sellers may be correct.

2022 is not that year, just like 2021, 2020, 2019 ...

7 points
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1
dobber's picture

December 23, 2022 at 01:55 pm

It's been documented repeatedly: 3rd down isn't the problem for this defense. They're #12 in stopping 3rd down conversions and are 9th in total first downs surrendered per game (19.1). However, they're 23rd in yards per play (5.6) and are about 24th in 20+ yard plays surrendered. Chunk plays are the problem.

7 points
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PackyCheese500's picture

December 23, 2022 at 02:17 pm

and 2nd downs too, I believe

2 points
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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

December 23, 2022 at 02:20 pm

The stats dont tell the whole story tho. This team gives up long 3rd down conversions at the worst possible times. Terrible situational football on both sides of the ball really.

7 points
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Leatherhead's picture

December 24, 2022 at 05:28 pm

Thank you, dobber.

0 points
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ImaPayne's picture

December 23, 2022 at 09:41 pm

you ya hen the achil s heel for 7 years now

0 points
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Lphill's picture

December 23, 2022 at 12:04 pm

as soon as we see 2 down lineman and zone coverage, no

12 points
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NJMagic's picture

December 23, 2022 at 12:09 pm

Is this really a question?
Um... No.

I anticipate to Jaire playing 45 yards off and Rasul being burned with no help over.

11 points
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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

December 23, 2022 at 12:56 pm

Joe Barry has been saving the 1st quarter prevent defense for this game in particular lol

7 points
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PackyCheese500's picture

December 23, 2022 at 12:10 pm

No.

7 points
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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

December 23, 2022 at 12:55 pm

The defense will probably play well this sunday because this system is geared towards limiting the big play. The problem is Barry approaches every game like theyre playing against Ty Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

3 points
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dobber's picture

December 23, 2022 at 01:57 pm

"The defense will probably play well this sunday because this system is geared towards limiting the big play."

They do well against 40+ yard plays (11th, tied), but struggle against 20+ yard plays (24th). Miami will throw 10-15 yard crossers all day on this defense.

5 points
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Coldworld's picture

December 23, 2022 at 02:18 pm

This D is just at war with itself. We are good at third downs and yet we get gashed on downs one to three in the air and in the ground. That suggests coaching not players to me, as does the widespread regression and confusion in the backfield. I see little reason why that will get better against a legitimate offense. This is a game where I think missing Gary will be particularly problematic as well.

4 points
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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

December 23, 2022 at 02:24 pm

CW, glad you mentioned it. Like i said in another comment, this team plays terrible situational football on both sides of the ball. No statistic can measure it, you know just know it when you see it. And weve seen way too much of it this year. "Fire Joe Barry" isnt just a catchy phrase for angry fans. The guy is clearly over his head in a lot of ways. I wish he would take a demotion cuz hes a really good linebackers coach but we all know that wont happen.

4 points
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ImaPayne's picture

December 23, 2022 at 09:45 pm

if they fire barry after tia torches him, it will be a christmas present he fn deserves

1 points
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canadapacker's picture

December 23, 2022 at 01:23 pm

If you cant tackle you cant get off the field. Especially shifty guys like Hill and Waddle - never mind Mostert. However - if they can sack Tua and still play the deep routes. But playing off Hill and he will juke all those guys from making tackles.

8 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

December 23, 2022 at 03:45 pm

They play like they practice.

1 points
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BAMABADGER's picture

December 23, 2022 at 01:53 pm

Perhaps this Christmas game will give us two gifts:

1) The end of year send off of Joe Berry
2) The offensive keys are turned over to Jordan Love for the last two games.

There is Hope.

Merry Christmas Packer fans! GPG!

5 points
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PackyCheese500's picture

December 23, 2022 at 02:18 pm

Merry Christmas to you as well! I would add another item:

3) Hiring Jim Leonhard to replace Joe Barry

1 points
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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

December 23, 2022 at 02:27 pm

Let me ask you this: why Jim Leonhard? He played most of his career under Mike Pettine so what makes you think he would be an improvement from Pettine? I ask this without hostility or snark. Im genuinely curious. Seems like it would be more of the same tbh.

5 points
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PackyCheese500's picture

December 23, 2022 at 02:34 pm

It is because I like the Rex Ryan-esque scheme he uses. It is not truly a 3-4 or a 4-3, it is like a 46 hybrid combined with all of those things. I really like it because of the confusion it creates pre-snap and the pressure overloads on one side, and I think that it would fit the Packers' personnel well. He uses exotic blitzes that are really fun to watch and are unpredictable, and it has paid off (Wisconsin's defense has been top-5 in the nation in almost every category in the last 5 years). I don't think we'd be seeing any Pettine-esque 3-man rushes

Leonhard almost exclusively uses man coverage, which is good, because we have one of the best man coverage CBs in Jaire Alexander. In addition, you will often see ILBs blitz, and I think Quay Walker could develop into a monster player in that role. They lynchpin of the Leonhard defense is the NT, and Kenny Clark is one of the best (we could also consider drafting a NT high in 2023 and convert Clark to 3-4 DE).

2 points
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pantz_bURp's picture

December 23, 2022 at 02:33 pm

Or, Coach Zimmer (if he is interested and mentally ready)

Okay, gotta crank "Santa Baby" for the umpteenth time .....

2 points
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ImaPayne's picture

December 23, 2022 at 09:47 pm

Zimmer would not take this job considering the lack of talent on this defense and how cheap the packers are

-2 points
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2
stockholder's picture

December 23, 2022 at 02:23 pm

I think the signing of Jenkins to 4 years and not 3, just signaled a Rebuild.
I'm sure Rodgers caught wind of this. 2 weeks ago.
I now expect Bahk to be released/traded .( If Rodgers doesn't re- work his contract. )
Remember Rodgers said this past week. His friends would have a lot to do with his decision.
Well the 17 mil plus a year, just signaled the shot over Rodgers bow.
But if he gets hurt like Bahk. Gutey just sabotaged this team for years to come.

0 points
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3
The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

December 23, 2022 at 02:30 pm

If they were planning to rebuild, wouldnt the smart move be to let the expensive player walk? I dont think this signing signals anything beyond Jenkins being a good player whos in a contract year and deserved to be paid. I think youre looking a little too deep on this one SH.

8 points
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stockholder's picture

December 23, 2022 at 02:45 pm

Very True. Lets see what happens to Bahk. I predicted that they would sign Jenkins and let Bahk go. / Rodgers friends.

2 points
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dobber's picture

December 23, 2022 at 02:33 pm

"I think the signing of Jenkins to 4 years and not 3, just signaled a Rebuild."

Four years is the standard NFL second contract, and he got paid about what it would take to keep him off the market.

"But if he gets hurt like Bahk. Gutey just sabotaged this team for years to come."

Yawn. True of any contract of this sort.

2 points
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stockholder's picture

December 23, 2022 at 02:43 pm

Born dec. 26,1995. add 4 years. He got over paid according to Sport track. I doubt TT would have signed him.

-1 points
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dobber's picture

December 24, 2022 at 11:19 am

A second contract to an OL with a Pro Bowl on his resume? TT always invested in the OL and he's exactly the kind of player TT would've signed.

-1 points
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stockholder's picture

December 24, 2022 at 12:59 pm

No - TT dumped his guards because he wouldn't over-pay them.
He did keep drafting the Ol. He was good at it. Especially T turn into Guards.
Memory Lane -
Josh Sitton ? Jason Spitz? Daryn Colledge? Tj Lang? JC Tretter?

0 points
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

December 25, 2022 at 01:20 am

Sitton and Lang got second contracts. Tretter would have except Linsley was better, and by that time Sitton and Lang were established high quality guards. There was no place as an IOL for Tretter except as a backup, and he was too good for that role. Spitz didn't get a second contract because he was below average. Colledge was just okay, so they let Arizona overpay, and they dumped him as soon as the bigger money kicked in.

Offering Jenkins a 3-year contract is the same as telling me the team didn't want to re-sign him in the first place. That's a non-starter.

0 points
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BirdDogUni's picture

December 25, 2022 at 09:40 am

Colledge was a turnstile, especially against Arizona! They should've known better.

Merry Christmas James!

0 points
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pantz_bURp's picture

December 23, 2022 at 02:38 pm

It would be cool if #12 called an audible at the line "flipper" and then used a signal representing a dolphin waving with one fin. Then all O-line makes their best Flipper impersonation which ends up sounding part Flipper and part Curly from the three stooges!

Yes... brilliant! :)

0 points
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3
LeotisHarris's picture

December 23, 2022 at 02:43 pm

Oh, we'll pack the middle, alright, if ya know what I mean *nudge*nudge*wink*wink.

A lot of people, many, many people are saying Jazzy Joe has been in touch with Dom Capers, and not only will the Packers roll out some craaaazy blitzes, but they'll unveil the Super Striker Psycho Package against the Dolphins. Rumor has it the Super Striker Psycho Package rushes one and drops 10 into coverage where four of the 10 follow one receiver, and the other six gesture at each other until a pass is completed. The defender within 15 yards of the pass catcher then runs parallel to him until the receiver either scores or comes within five yards of a first down. If the receiver is to be tackled, he must be allowed to fall forward within a yard of the first down. Any tackling attempts must involve jersey tugging and feeble grabbing above the waist. Do not, under any circumstances, grab the opponents legs.

Our lone rusher will channel his inner Alden Roche/Clarence Williams and battle to a stalemate at the LOS. He will also spy Tua, but will be inches from making a tackle if Tua decides to run for 35-40 yards.

3 points
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2
pantz_bURp's picture

December 23, 2022 at 02:49 pm

Nice, that was sweet! (Chuckled like Santa on this one)

I got Rudolph humping it back to the North Pole...the D, everyone of them will be fitted with Go Go Gadget arms...easy peasy.

If I have one left over, well....it will be for Dillon and a serious stiff arm

Okay, gotta go crank "Your a mean one, Mr Grinch" for the 30th time....

2 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

December 23, 2022 at 04:06 pm

You talkin' Joe Barry or Barry Smith, or "Hey Joe", Jimi Hendrix ? Alden Roche, yeah baby !

2 points
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ImaPayne's picture

December 25, 2022 at 09:05 am

Thanks you. Its Christmas and you have me LMAO.
They call it the psycho package alright. Any decent d coach would be a psycho to take this job with the lack of talent they have.
I can envision them calling Zimmer and him hanging up the phone. LOL
Merry Christmas

1 points
1
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pantz_bURp's picture

December 23, 2022 at 03:05 pm

We got this! We just need to have fun as a team and play with controlled chaos! Rumor has it (no rumor), if the Packers win...Coach LaF will dress up as Hermie the Dentist during the week at practice.

That's the way the Bumble bounces...

Okay, gotta make bank...or at least appear to ...

Yours truly,

P-Burp

0 points
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2
PackyCheese500's picture

December 23, 2022 at 03:29 pm

And will Joe Barry don the Red Nose? Akin to Rudolph, but, perhaps more appropriately, a Clown.

1 points
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pantz_bURp's picture

December 23, 2022 at 03:41 pm

Pack500, that is a fair question. I think someone needs to tap the frontal lobe abit and remind JB and the players that the FIFA World Cup is over and it is okay (and encouraged) to use your hands and if so desired, one can even tackle.

0 points
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pantz_bURp's picture

December 23, 2022 at 03:42 pm

JB better not be Rudolph...he better be BLITZEN!!! (controlled chaos)

0 points
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pantz_bURp's picture

December 23, 2022 at 03:50 pm

Not to complain TOO much, but geez...the price of food and snacks have gone up! Just made it back from the Kwik-Trip...Pretzels expensive, generic mac-n-cheese expensive, soy milk expensive, prune juice expensive. The only item somewhat reasonable were the Deer Nutz....thank goodness there still under a Buck!

1 points
2
1
pantz_bURp's picture

December 23, 2022 at 04:01 pm

Andddd (don't worry, boss man is onto me), with every sack of Tua, the said sacker(s) should celebrate the sack with standing straight and tall, with pinky out...like they are sipping some delicious UK tea.

You know, " tea-ah for Tua"

mic drop...boss man has me by the ear, exiting me out of the bldg. I so want to replay the Jerry McGuire scene...but, well...almost Christmas and Santaz watching....

-2 points
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2
barutanseijin's picture

December 23, 2022 at 04:44 pm

Can the offense keep up with Miami’s? I kinda doubt it, but we shall see.

0 points
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EnemyTerritory's picture

December 23, 2022 at 05:30 pm

There will be no packing the middle because it is only recently that the GBP learned that there is a middle of the field eligible for play. There is no way that Barry is going to look at tape from an opponents defense. I’m waiting to hear if the defense even watches tape together now that we learned that the TEAM offense all watched taped Independently because that fosters so much cohesion. Our secondary will be like Santa’s reindeer all looking at the butts of the Miami WRs as they fly downfield. Why oh why couldn’t this have been last weeks game when I needed oodles of Waddle fantasy points…?

4 points
4
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ImaPayne's picture

December 23, 2022 at 10:01 pm

What your refering too is called, piss poor coaching and managing a team ala LeFleur

0 points
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jhtobias's picture

December 23, 2022 at 05:56 pm

The answer is absolutely not. It will take the Miami head coach a whole play and half to figure out what Joe Berry has come up with to adjust and then Joe Berry will take a whole offseason to counter this if he even can .

I'll tell you Joe Berry's plan play 15 yards off Waddle and Hill let them kill you over the middle all day and never bring any pressure . Then Lafluer post game will say we have to do a better job the end .

Joe Berry is absolutely the worst defensive coordinator in the last 10 years of football and Lafluer is absolutely the worst head coach in hiring personal around him in 20 years. But what the heck him and gute got big far extensions so whatever

1 points
2
1
LeotisHarris's picture

December 23, 2022 at 06:36 pm

"Joe Berry is absolutely the worst defensive coordinator in the last 10 years of football and Lafluer is absolutely the worst head coach in hiring personal around him in 20 years."

That's some good stuff right there, but it leaves questions unanswered:

Who was the worst defensive coordinator in 2012?

Who was the worst head coach in hiring personnel around him in 2002?

2 points
3
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ImaPayne's picture

December 25, 2022 at 09:07 am

He already knows the bary defense its the same every freekin game. He is using an old book he found and doesnt really know defensive schemes, he skipped that school.

0 points
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PeteK's picture

December 23, 2022 at 06:02 pm

This is the bottom line that has to change: we score 20.4 per game , but give up 22.5. Last season we scored 26.5 and gave up 21.8.

5 points
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Leatherhead's picture

December 24, 2022 at 05:40 pm

Don't try to confuse me with facts. All along, I've said that we have an AVERAGE defense with an offense that just isn't getting it done very often.

1 points
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ImaPayne's picture

December 23, 2022 at 09:58 pm

Jo is the dumbest d coach in football. He plays prevent d because the play book he got from Petunia is the one Petunia got from Capers.
Its was designed to play defense with lesser talented players who cant cover, tackle , or have the size and speed to compete with tall fast receivers. In addition we use linebackers to pass rush and not you top defensive linemen with size and speed because they fn costs to much.

-2 points
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ImaPayne's picture

December 23, 2022 at 09:58 pm

Jo is the dumbest d coach in football. He plays prevent d because the play book he got from Petunia is the one Petunia got from Capers.
Its was designed to play defense with lesser talented players who cant cover, tackle , or have the size and speed to compete with tall fast receivers. In addition we use linebackers to pass rush and not you top defensive linemen with size and speed because they fn costs to much.

-1 points
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ImaPayne's picture

December 23, 2022 at 10:20 pm

If nothing else, if we lose and we can all put hope aside and turn out thoughts towards how this team ended up where is was: jo Barry, play calling, use of run versus pass, o line mess, pass defense screwed up.
It was a total screw up from day one of training camp and a lot of people are to blame.
Lets hope lessons were learned and things get fixed. The Vikes are no longer the nemesis, its now the Bears and Lions too, two other teams vastly improved and ready to compete with youth and talent.
The Pack could be the bottom feeders next year if they refuse to accept things are broke and need fixin

-1 points
1
2
lou's picture

December 24, 2022 at 11:08 am

It was disturbing to hear Aikman say, "MLF has told us he wants a more AGGRESIVE defense" and then you see the DB's line up so far back that the more appropriate word is SOFT as Charmin. The head coach gives the directives to the assistant coaches, MLF is the one responsible for the SOFT DEFENSE. Could you imagine an assistant coach disregarding a directive from Belichick - NO WAY. Belichick would tell MLF - "Do Your Job".

2 points
2
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Untylu1968's picture

December 24, 2022 at 11:09 am

So does a new coordinator get hired, based on a good pedigree and potential, or is the coaching pool narrowed down because MLF wants a certain scheme run?

2 points
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Leatherhead's picture

December 24, 2022 at 05:38 pm

Miami has six games where they got 29 or more points, and 8 games where they scored 21 or fewer, so obviously these guys can get slowed down by average defenses. Some of those opponents have been defensive weaklings, like the Lions and Browns, but they've also done it against Buffalo and Baltimore, so you know they can score if you don't put a leash on them.

The Vikings, held these guys to 16. They've been held to 17 or less 6 times.

All that makes the equation work for me. Average, and even below average, defenses have held these guys to 21 or less, more than once. And if we can do what half of their opponents have done, limit them, then we have a real good shot at winning this game. If we let them get about 30 them we'll lose.

2 points
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ImaPayne's picture

December 25, 2022 at 09:09 am

Merry Christmas to all. Cant say I would be happy to see this defense shredded today but Joe time is up and if it means no playoffs so be it.
Gutts time should be up too. Too bad the Lions losts and looked like fools yesterday or the Packers season may already be over.

0 points
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Leatherhead's picture

December 25, 2022 at 03:09 pm

We held them to 20, including a scoreless second half. On the road, in a game we absolutely had to win.

0 points
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