Why the Packers Will Beat Carolina and Why They Might Not

Aaron Rodgers is the biggest reason why the Packers will win Sunday. 

At times, it seemed like the Green Bay Packers would never reach this point. It seemed like we wouldn’t see Aaron Rodgers again until the 2018 season.

But as real as that concern was, even one week ago, the two-time MVP is back and will make his dramatic return today in Carolina, against the 9-4 Panthers.

For the Packers, this is a must-win game. That’s not hype, it’s fact. If Green Bay loses this game it will likely be eliminated from the playoff picture. A loss to Carolina and a Falcons win over the Bucs eliminates them.

However, by the same token, if the Packers beat the Panthers, while the Rams beat the Seahawks and the Bucs somehow pull an upset over Atlanta, then suddenly, the Packers would control their own destiny.

Crazy how this NFL works.

So for all intents and purposes, this is a playoff game. Beat Carolina and the Packers will trail them by just one game. And with a lot of other playoff contenders still having games to play against each other, if Green Bay can win, it more than likely will sneak in the NFC playoffs.

But for that to happen, Green Bay has to beat Carolina, which even with Rodgers, is a tall order. The Panthers have a great quarterback, a great defense and a great running game.

Winning certainly won’t be easy, but here is an outline of why the Packers will beat Carolina and why they might not.

Here’s why they will:

The top reason of course is the return of Rodgers. Obviously, it’s hard to know if we will see Aaron in top form today, but my thought is, why not?

Rodgers has been running the scout team for two weeks and according to guys like Clay Matthews, has been doing it impressively. We all remember those pre-game throws in Pittsburgh.

If the guy wasn’t right, he wouldn’t play. Now there will still be some rust, but Rodgers knows what’s at stake. He can and will find a way to shake it off. At the very least, I’ve learned to stop doubting him and it’s not time to start now.

The last time Rodgers came back from an injury like this, was Week 17 of the 2013 season. All he did was hit Randall Cobb for a game-winning touchdown on a 4th-and-10 in Chicago. Just saying.

Yet, as Aaron said this week, he isn’t coming back to be the savior and if the Packers are going to run the table again, he will need help from his defense and his running game.

The ground game hasn’t been spectacular, but it’s been pretty good. Jamaal Williams is a power guy and Aaron Jones can make big plays. Williams has also found the end zone a lot, both as a runner and receiver.

The Packers run game ranks 18th, but it’s good enough to aid Rodgers. In fact, with him at quarterback, the running game should thrive. And that could lead to some play-action passes.

One thing that was true about Brett Hundley’s time at quarterback, is that it didn’t go well for Jordy Nelson. Well that will change this week. He and Rodgers have a sixth sense. He will start making plays again.

And lastly, while the big concern is obviously the defense. If Rodgers can help the Packers get the lead, it could change everything. This defense plays different with a lead. The pass rush has been getting better and it has gotten at least one turnover in 11 straight games.

Green Bay is actually sixth in takeaways in 22. Hundley didn’t take advantage of some of them, Rodgers will. He will also keep the offense on the field, which will help a defense that has played a lot of snaps.

Why the Panthers will win

Carolina is average offensively, but its defense is outstanding. The Panthers rank in the top-10 in both yards and points allowed. Their pass rush is stout, and they are hard to run on. However, they only have 14 takeaways, which is 25th in the NFL.

Cam Newton is always difficult to deal with and Christian McCaffrey is going to be a nightmare for the Packers. I have no idea how they will cover him, or who with, so expect him to go off.

Devin Funchess and Greg Olsen, could also give Green Bay fits. Damarious Randall has been playing well, but Funchess is a big man and that creates a mismatch. The same with Olsen, who might end up being covered by Morgan Burnett.

The fact that this game is at Carolina, also doesn’t help. The Panthers just beat the Vikings there a week ago, so if the Packers are going to keep their playoff hopes alive, they will need to do something Minnesota couldn’t.

That will be tough. But hey, when you have Aaron Rodgers, anything is possible.

 

 

 

__________________________

Chris is a sports journalist from Montana and has been blogging about the Packers since 2011. Chris has been a staff writer for CheeseheadTV since 2017 and looks forward to the day when Aaron Rodgers wins his second Super Bowl. Follow him @thepackersguru

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Comments (13)

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EdsLaces's picture

December 17, 2017 at 07:08 am

Is put Burnett on Christian and Martinez on Olsen, but either way Christian is going to torch us. If we win it is literally because of one person ...amd he rocks that 12 better than anyone.

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Savage57's picture

December 17, 2017 at 07:48 am

So many positives to look forward to on offense, so many negatives to dread on defense.

Big contest, game of the week, time to shine or go down trying.

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NickPerry's picture

December 17, 2017 at 08:26 am

McCaffrey is the one I'm most concerned about in the Panthers Offense other than when Newton is running. After watching Tampa Bay have the success they did against the Packers running a simple screen pass, you have to wonder how well they can hold up against McCaffrey.

Hey guys wouldn't it be awesome to be here one December late in the season and not have to be concerned if 35 points is going to be enough?

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Handsback's picture

December 17, 2017 at 08:25 am

Another good article. Might change "top reason the Packers win..." to "the only way the Packers win...". Rodgers may be rusty, but if he can keep it close they have a chance at the end.

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Doug Niemczynski's picture

December 17, 2017 at 08:32 am

Why the packers will win.
OFFENSE

Why the packers will lose
DEFENSE

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CJ Bauckham's picture

December 17, 2017 at 09:41 am

This is your greatest comment to date

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ChrisPeterson's picture

December 17, 2017 at 08:36 am

Yea Aaron is gonna have to be his mvp self. Packers need to get the lead and then take long drives to score. Protect the D. Hopefully they can sack Cam a few times and get a turnover or two.

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TKWorldWide's picture

December 17, 2017 at 08:44 am

Devin Funchess and Greg Olsen could also give Green Bay fits.
The fact that this game is at Carolina also doesn’t help.

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HankScorpio's picture

December 17, 2017 at 08:45 am

"The fact that this game is at Carolina, also doesn’t help."

I'm not so sure it hurts any, either. I'd rather have Rodgers play his first game back in a bit warmer weather and better conditions. Accuweather is saying it will be about 55 at game time. No rain.

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Doug Niemczynski's picture

December 17, 2017 at 09:39 am

Packers never played good against running quarterbacks

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Doug Niemczynski's picture

December 17, 2017 at 09:40 am

It's going to take everything the Packers can muster on offense defense and special teams to win this game I hope they do!!! go pack go

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Doug Niemczynski's picture

December 17, 2017 at 10:47 am

Let's hire MARVIN LEWIS as defensive coordinator! !!!!!! Fire Capers Today!!!!!!!!

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cheesehead1's picture

December 17, 2017 at 11:44 am

Comes down again and again to our D. Recent history says they will get lit up. You always have a chance with Aaron, but he doesn’t play defense.

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