The Packers Should Save on Tackles and Spend on Guards

The Packers are in for a big change on the offensive line as three starters are set to be free agents.  Who should they keep and who should they start looking for a replacement in the upcoming draft?

The NFL is evolving into a passing league; this comment has been made countless times by countless individuals and there’s pretty much irrefutable evidence that teams are passing more, running less, scoring more through the air and gaining more yards through the air.  Most people will point to the introduction of the west coast offense by Bill Walsh with the San Francisco 49ers and if you believe what’s written in “The Blind Side”, with the quarterback throwing more and more, protecting the quarterback has become more and more important, especially at left tackle, a right handed quarterback’s “blind side”.

Left tackle was the superstar of the offensive line because he had to be strong enough to take on a bull rush, fast enough to counter a speed rush and flexible enough to “leave on an island”.  As such left tackles and tackles in general have seen their salaries skyrocket.  The top left tackle can earn upwards on yearly average of $13 million while centers and guards top out at an yearly average of $8-9 million. 

As the Packers look forward to next offseason where left tackle David Bakhtiari, Josh Sitton and TJ Lang are all free agents, and the Packers have some decisions to make in terms of where to allocate their money.  While traditional thought would be to invest heavily into the left tackle position, I think it makes more sense to invest in the interior.

First off is a simply return on investment calculation.  I compared the yearly averages of tackles, guards and centers from OverTheCap to 2015 performance grades found on ProFootballFocus.  Players making less than $1 million yearly average were excluded to factor out some players on lower rookie contracts (for instance Corey Linsley) that don’t represent fair market value and players who were sent to IR were also excluded.  Overall, teams spent about $83,000 per PFF grade point on tackles compared to $58,000 on guards and $60,000 on centers.  This basically means that guards offer the “best bang for your buck”.

The second point is the evolution of the passing game itself.  While Walsh’s west coast offense is predicated on quick timed passes, the NFL has taken it a step further with most competent quarterbacks getting rid of the ball in under 2.5 seconds.  NFL quarterbacks having been shortening the time they throw ball every year since 2012 with over 64% of all passes being thrown in under 2.5 seconds in last season.  As OverTheCap points out, given that even the best pass rushers can only run a 10-yard dash in 1.5 seconds, what this really means is that offensive tackles only really need to slow down defenders by about .5-1 second.  Realistically, outside of failing to get out of the 3 point stance or simply falling over, slowing even the best pass rusher by a fraction of a second is relatively easy. 

As they say the fastest way between two points is a line and it’s becoming increasingly obvious that teams are now trying to collapse the pocket and get to the quarterback through the interior.  At this point, Ndamukong Suh holds the record for highest paid defensive player with a $19 million yearly average, over $2 million more per year than the highest paid defensive end.

In conclusion, while many fans feel that resigning Bakhtiari is a bigger priority, in reality retaining at least one guard is probably more important.  Aaron Rodgers and the Packers probably haven’t had a solid left tackle since Chad Clifton retired and they’ve still managed to be one of the most productive scoring offenses in the league.  Add to that the relative cost of signing guards compared to tackles, the shift to under 2.5 second passes and perhaps the biggest fact that Sitton and Lang are simply way better players than Bahktiari and the Packers should save money on a tackle and spend it on a guard. 

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Comments (35)

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Packer_Pete's picture

April 01, 2016 at 12:08 pm

I disagree. With OG, you can hide an average player as a starter better, as he can always get C help. With OT, often those guys are left out on an island, playing against some of the best Defenders in the NFL. Would you rather have a rookie at OG or at OT when playing Denver with Von Miller and Ware? In the particular Packers situation, it also seems that Lang and especially Sitton have hit their prime already. Nothing against those 2, love them to death, but Sitton is getting old, and had to play with nagging injuries the past few seasons, especially back issues.

The writing for Sitton is on the wall, he certainly can't get a large and long contract anymore. So if only 2 of the 3 could be kept, I'd say sign Lang and Bakh. If there has to be a decision to keep one, it'd be Lang for me, but only if they can at least keep Tretter as I think he could play OT. If they could only keep 1 of the 4, then there will be a big issue to begin with, but then my priority would be Bakh. He is young and will still improve.

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Bearmeat's picture

April 01, 2016 at 12:58 pm

Yep. This.

The only thing that gives me pause it looking at the 2012 Saints. They lost both their all pro starting guards and their passing game took a HUGE hit.

That said, Drew Brees is very short for an NFL QB - so perhaps hiding a "schlub" at LG wouldn't be so problematic for GB.

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dobber's picture

April 01, 2016 at 01:07 pm

"it also seems that Lang and especially Sitton have hit their prime already. Nothing against those 2, love them to death, but Sitton is getting old, and had to play with nagging injuries the past few seasons, especially back issues."

This is the biggest issue, in my mind.
"Invest in your youth."
"Don't be afraid to let the older guys walk."
"It's better to let a player go a year too early than a year too late."

Whichever mantra you subscribe to, I think it's more than applicable here. Don't be surprised when the Packers draft at least two OL next month and when at least two of Bakhtiari/Sitton/Lang are allowed to walk next spring for compensatory picks. The Packers will not be able to pay everyone who will be holding out his hand after the 2016 season, and we already know that TT doesn't like to keep too many old guys. He'd rather have players on cheap, rookie deals...that's what he's going to do.

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PackerBacker's picture

April 01, 2016 at 03:27 pm

100% agree with your comments on Lang's and Sitton's injury histories. Sitton's back, in particular, would have me concerned.

I think TT will be looking to get them for cheaper contracts (looking to their future worth) and Lang and Sitton are going to be looking for a last, big contract (based on past, great, performance).

Could make for a Wahle / Rivera type of off season, sad to say.

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MarkinMadison's picture

April 01, 2016 at 12:40 pm

Nice general analysis, but I don't think you went the next step and really applied it to the Packers. As Pete pointed out Sitton's back issues make investing in him questionable at this point. The other thing is that #12 does hold the ball more than 2.5 seconds. His release time was in the bottom 3 of the NFL, on average. As we all know its not that he can't get rid of the ball, he just believes he can make something good happen. And if is really as great as we think he is, then he should be allowed that luxury. Now whether Bakh is the right guy to give him that luxury remains to be seen. We will find out this year.

http://espn.go.com/blog/green-bay-packers/post/_/id/26079/beat-the-clock...

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sheppercheeser's picture

April 01, 2016 at 12:42 pm

I'd like to see Tretter take a step up in his game and compete for some playing time. Anybody know what Barclay's status is? I would have no problem seeing him walk. I feel even an untested rookie is worth more than what Donnie has to offer.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 01, 2016 at 01:13 pm

Tretter is in a contract year. If he proves he can start at LT, he will become expensive as well; we might be better off in 2016, but the long term issue is not eased.

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Bearmeat's picture

April 01, 2016 at 04:44 pm

ARod's biggest problem is also a huge play waiting to happen: Holding the ball too long.

GB NEEDS a competent LT. I hope GB resigns Bakh sooner rather than later and he continues his improvement. He doesn't need to be blue chip, but a red chip LT goes a LONG way in today's NFL.

You'd have to think Sitton is gone after this year. Been a great player - but the back injury is scary for a man who pushes 1000 pounds around for 4 hours 20x a year. I'm thinking Rotheram and Taylor. Maybe look at Tretter inside too and perhaps a OG pick in the draft.

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dobber's picture

April 01, 2016 at 01:12 pm

With TTs penchant for drafting and moving OLTs, I wouldn't be surprised if he waits until late to extend Bakhtiari just so they can find out whether or not they have a winner out of this draft class...maybe a Willie Beavers or the like that they can sneak out of the middle rounds who might turn out to be a good replacement on the outside.

It's a bit of an exaggeration, but it's very possible the Packers could retain both OGs for what it would cost to extend Bakhtiari.

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jeremyjjbrown's picture

April 01, 2016 at 01:13 pm

Sadly, I'd rather keep Tretter and Bahk around than Sitton. He's just gotten too much wear and tear, Guards are easier to draft than guys who can play Tackle.

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Tundraboy's picture

April 01, 2016 at 09:25 pm

I'm thinking the same. As Bearmeat said Bahk works fine as a red chip tackle and is young. Tretter has proven he can play Tackle as well, so you always have to keep already proven young tackles and ones who have shown some ability at that critical position. And if a solid LT prospect is available early, I would go for that as well. It is after all a passing league and protecting Rodgers is priority one and always is a good idea. Love Sitton but we have been successful finding guards in later rounds just as we found him. One of our best picks ever.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 01, 2016 at 01:10 pm

Wondering how you handled negative points? Plus points are really marginal value over the fictional average player. How would you do the math for an exactly average player who finishes with zero points? Nevermind, I get that OTs cost more than OG and OCs.

Not that impressed with the 2.5 second stat. That takes into account slants and other quick hitting routes. If you advocate its use, you can forget Nelson running any double moves, and erase a chunk of the playbook.

On another thought, wonder about the draft capital issue. It seems that TT at least can find high quality OC and OGs in the mid rounds. I view Bakh as an aberration being a 4th rounder (great pick, but not very repeatable- TT has spent #1s on LTs before).

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Bearmeat's picture

April 01, 2016 at 03:17 pm

no

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PackerBacker's picture

April 01, 2016 at 03:32 pm

Why would they let Tretter walk? He doesn't have enough tape to command a big contract yet. They should be able to sign him for relatively cheap.

I agree with signing Bakh and Lang, though. And I too think Sitton won't be re-signed.

Also think they draft at least one O-lineman.

No, Bulaga won't play guard.

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Bearmeat's picture

April 01, 2016 at 04:46 pm

Unless he has to fill in for one of the interior positions this year, and does a good job. Hope that doesn't happen. But maybe that's a non-issue anyway. Rotheram and Taylor are probably the only backup OGs. Tretter will backup the C and OTs.

It's still a very good OL. It'll just look different after next year.

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Evan's picture

April 01, 2016 at 07:27 pm

He could potentially start at guard, yea? In your scenario (which I agree with) there will be an opening at LG.

I also like the idea of Linsley at LG and Tretter at C.

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croatpackfan's picture

April 01, 2016 at 03:05 pm

Yeah, lot of you forget that David Bakhtiari was playing all season injured, too. And there was no replacement for him. Every player who was playing LT instead of David was bust. Tretter was just OK, but still much weaker than Bakh.
I do not understand why you do not like David Bakhtiari... Last season the most holding penalties was done by Josh Sitton, not David Bakhtiari. And how many sacks was done over David?
I really do not get. You do not like him from the beginning. OK, he is not elite LT, but he is better than average!
And do not come to me with those PFF idiots and their stats. They are not argument, they are ridiculous.

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PackerBacker's picture

April 01, 2016 at 03:49 pm

So, just to be clear. You want to argue with someone about this, but you don't want them to bring any stats or information that might muddy the argument with fact.
Sounds like fun.

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dobber's picture

April 01, 2016 at 08:26 pm

I don't really care for PFF, either. In the end, when it comes to OL, there's not much to go on aside from PFF.

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Tundraboy's picture

April 01, 2016 at 09:31 pm

I agree on PFF. One doesn't need PFF to tell you anything more than watching game performance. Results on field speak volumes and eyes do not deceive.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 01, 2016 at 06:07 pm

I like Bakh just fine - I just do not want to pay him! He actually played pretty well last year. I think he improved, particularly when not injured. Adjusting his snaps to 100%, per McGinn stats, Bakh allowed 6 sacks (Sitton allowed 3.5, Lang 2.5 sacks and Bulaga 5), 34 pressures (not good - Sitton allowed 15.5, Lang 20.3 and Bulaga 30.5), 10 bad runs (very good) and 12.5 penalties (most among OL). He seems to be an average to average + LT, and is going to want $8M per year, give or take. Hard to pay Bakh $8, Bulaga $6.75, Lang and Sitton each $6 to $7, and Tretter will probably want low starters money at Center, maybe $4 to $5M.

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Tundraboy's picture

April 01, 2016 at 09:37 pm

That is the dilemma but Bahk is not worth $8mm even to us and do not see anyone wanting him at that price either.

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croatpackfan's picture

April 02, 2016 at 05:16 pm

We do not know how much he will ask for new contract, do we? We think that his market value is about 8 mil per year. You do not want to pay him that much. OK. Tell me who is better than Bakh at LT at the moment? If you draft LT in the first round and he became Newhouse, you released Bakh and you do not have LT. How is that?
Also, Brian Bulaga allowed 5 sacks (Bakhiari 6!), but how many sacks Aaron avoided because Brian is on his not blind side. My opinion is that Brian played worse than Bakh. I know that David Bakhtiari is not elite LT, but he is near that level. And Packers do not have player on their roster who can play LT batter than Bakh! That is what I'm saying!

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4thand1's picture

April 02, 2016 at 08:41 am

true croat

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Tundraboy's picture

April 02, 2016 at 08:56 am

I agree that we have to keep him because we do not have ANYoptions at this the most important position. Just hate having to possibly pay 14 million for him and Bulaga. That's the dilemma, so Sitton will be a casualty. I just hope he has a great season to justify that amount. Right now not worth $8mm. We shall all see.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 02, 2016 at 02:38 pm

Dear Croat - unless TT drafts a LT high, we will be paying Bakh whatever the market is for a decent LT who continues to improve each year. What that amount might be I can only guess - but I am sure it is a lot. You took me too literally. Sure, I do not want to pay Bakh, but that does not mean I would not completely support paying him. It is much easier to find OGs than LTs.

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croatpackfan's picture

April 02, 2016 at 05:19 pm

Even if LT will be selected in the 1st round, there is no guarantee that he will be adequate....

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 02, 2016 at 08:59 pm

Agree again. There are no guarantees in the draft, including LTs.

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croatpackfan's picture

April 03, 2016 at 05:10 am

;-)...

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Pack88's picture

April 01, 2016 at 04:06 pm

I smile when I read about anybody playing LT. Did no one watch the Arizona game in December last year. I agree that TT will draft a couple of linemen this year; those two comp picks in rd 4 seem the ideal locations for the two developmental guards (converted LT's) a name to add to the long list above John Thues from Ga. He reminds me of Sitton in his stance and a year in an NFL weight room will help him immensely

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4thand1's picture

April 01, 2016 at 04:52 pm

The Packers are working on a deal to trade up with the Raiders. Lacy and one of their 4th round picks to move up.

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LeagueObsrvr's picture

April 01, 2016 at 05:09 pm

You have a link? Ahhhhh It's April Fools Day, lol :-)

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LeagueObsrvr's picture

April 01, 2016 at 05:03 pm

[double post]

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AgrippaLII's picture

April 01, 2016 at 07:56 pm

Sitton has back/injury issues...it's well known. I don't see anyone throwing big money at him. So he is the Guard most easily resigned if Ted wants him. I think Lang would like to stay with the Packers so Ted may have some wiggle room there...and with Bahktiari too. Tretter is looking for a starting job so him staying with the Packers probably means one of the Guards will have to go. Factor in Salary Cap hit, Comp pick value, guys on the PS moving up, and the Draft...Ted has lot's of options to consider.

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sonomaca's picture

April 02, 2016 at 12:13 am

Regarding the 2.5 seconds. Rodgers sometimes/often takes more time.

Regarding Bakhtiari, he's much younger than Sitton and Lang. TT likes to re-sign key players to a second deal. He's not big on keeping veterans around too long.

Plus, the Packers don't have a competent replacement at LT. I think Bakhtiari will be resigned.

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