What to do with David Bakhtiari is a fairly polarizing issue among Packers’ fans.  Should the Packers trade, release, or extend him?  If so, when?  Since the Packers have already restructured Bakhtiari for this season, the cap ramifications for trading him are minimal.  The elephant in the room is his $40.583M cap number for 2024.  The other issue is his injury history and the risk moving forward about his availability, a subject that many fans have expressed opinions about in the comments. 

While GM Gutekunst can obtain his medical records and speak with the Packers' medical staff, we fans are not privy to the opinions of the Packers’ medical staff and my crystal ball is cloudy.  On Aaron Nagler's Draft Night podcast, Bakhtiari was the guest.  He did say that the trainers had devised a special training regimen for him, and joked that he was on the Chad Clifton program.  Bakhtiari noted that many left tackles as they got older had a special program, citing Joe Thomas and Trent Williams.  So, it is fair to say that it isn't the case that he was injured but now can practice normally.  He turns 32 in September, so it is not completely clear whether the special regimen is related to the injury, to just getting older, or some combination of both issues.          

We can agree that having a left tackle who plays on an island and can take on the best Edge Rushers in the NFL is a great advantage to a team.  Having studs at left tackle and left guard has to help any quarterback, and particularly a young quarterback.  Having an offensive line that can protect Jordan Love is important to fairly evaluating him during the 2023 season. That arguably is a good and sufficient reason to retain David Bakhtiari for the whole 2023 season.

And yet, I do not think the analysis can end there.  David Bakhtiari was a very good left tackle when he was healthy in 2022.  After a rocky start to the season and an off game against Detroit in week nine(and missing some time in that game, playing just 57% of possible snaps), he still earned a 79.8 PFF grade for the year.  Watching Tyler Brooke's Film Review on Bakhtiari, he seems to still have good movement and lateral agility in his last several games before an appendectomy sidelined him.  He looks good physically on film.

This seems like an unlikely scenario.  Multiple tackles would have to truly blossom (and do so during just training camp and preseason games) to impress the Packers enough to part with Bakhtiari, likely both Nijman and Tom.  It would be more comfortable is one of Rasheed Walker, Caleb Jones or Luke Tenuta could persuade the coaches that they can be quality backup swing tackle material.  Also, some team that fancies itself a contender would have to sustain a bad injury to its own starting left tackle and that team would have to be comfortable with Bakhtiari’s medicals. 

I had been giving this scenario serious consideration but as I think it through, I find it less likely.  In order to garner good compensation such as a late first or early second round pick, Bakhtiari would have to play all seven games (Green Bay has a bye in week 6), participate in most practices, and look like a top left tackle.  That is quite possible, though it remains to be seen.  Financially, he should be attractive as the acquiring team would get his services for 9 games (plus playoffs, if any) for $647K in 2023, and for 17 games in 2024 for $21.5M.  $22.15M for 26 games is pretty good for a top tackle.  

I think the team would have to be doing poorly as well, perhaps 2-5 at the trade deadline, and I suspect that the front office would have to have concluded that Jordan Love is not the guy and that he is not going to be a top ten quarterback.  If the Packers are 5-2 at the deadline and/or Jordan Love looks good, I find it hard to believe the Packers would jettison Bakhtiari. 

One reason to trade Bakhtiari in this scenario would be to gain additional ammunition to move up in the 2024 draft for a quarterback.  Carolina traded its own 9th pick, pick 61, DJ Moore (who I would translate into a late first round pick), a 2024 first round and a 2025 second round pick to move up to the top pick.  If the Packers win six or seven games in 2023, they could get the 6th to 12th pick in the draft.  They could have a first from the Rodgers trade and another first or second round pick from a Bakhtiari trade, plus their own second and third round picks.  

The problem with this scenario is that it seems difficult to move on from a talented quarterback after just his first starting season, and indeed, half a season as outlined here.  I think most agree that Jordan Love has all the physical traits to be a franchise quarterback.  He has size, pretty good speed and he's a good athlete, all while having an NFL arm.  The question involves the intangibles.  Lots of quarterbacks need more than one year of starting to blossom.  Jalen Hurts didn’t blossom until his third year of being the starter.  Moving on from Love at the trade deadline would be a very quick trigger.  Then again, Packers CEO Mark Murphy recently said they would have a good idea about Jordan Love by Halloween (which happens to fall on October 31st, the NFL trade deadline).  GM Gutekunst might decide to pull that trigger, but he had better be right.

Other reasons to trade Bakhtiari at the trade deadline might arise.  The Packers could receive an offer that is just too good to refuse.  The team might have enough qualms about his injury history to decide to move on, offloading the risk at the first good opportunity.  One of the younger players might make him expendable.

Bakhtiari would hold quite a few cards in this scenario if he stayed healthy and played well in 2023.  The Packers would want to reduce that cap number significantly, one way or another, but that would not be Bakhtiari's concern.  The Packers cap situation should be better in 2024 but it won’t be healthy quite yet.  

OTC shows the Pack almost $19M under the 2024 projected cap limit with over 51 players under contract.  However, OTC does not list cap numbers for Gary, Nijman, Runyan, Dillon, Nixon, Deguara, Savage, Rudy Ford, Leavitt, or Hollins.  If and when the Packers extend Gary, his 2024 cap number probably will wipe out all $19M of the cap space shown by OTC.  If they extend Nijman, Runyan, et al, they will be over the cap when March 13, 2024, rolls around.  True, the Packers could restructure some of their other high earners, but all of them save Rashan Gary have already been restructured at least once or twice.  In any event, the team will have to sign its draft picks, pay for the PS, and count the last two contracts later in the year, which should reduce cap space by $12M or so.  There is no benefit to a post-June designation on a release/cut.  A trade and a release have the same results.       

One wonders what Bakhtiari wants.  Does he want to leave for a contender to get a ring?  Will he think Green Bay can be a contender after watching how the 2023 season unfolded?  He does not have to acquiesce to a max void year restructure because he has no remaining void years.  He would have to agree to add void years so the Packers could convert some or all of his $20.2M base salary into a signing bonus and push the signing proration into future seasons.  His cap number could be reduced to about $24M, a $16.5M cap savings, by adding four void years, but Bakhtiari has declined three years in a row to add void years to his deal. Plus, it would be more financially prudent for Bakhtiari to force the Packers' hand by insisting on an extension or a trade to a team that would give him more long-term security.  A max void year restructure would also leave $15.2M in dead money for 2025. 

Getting Bakhtiari’s consent to any particular trade would be helpful.  Since he is due $21.5M in cash for 2024, he isn’t a particularly attractive bargain, though that is fair market value.  If the acquiring team is willing to send a first round pick, they probably would want an extension in place, to which Bakhtiari would have to agree.  It may be that the Packers would have to trade him to a suboptimal team rather than to the team that offered the most.

Extension: Should the Packers consider extending him (which would be a bit of a roll on of the dice given his injury history), his cap number and the inability to restructure his deal this could be a bit of leverage for him.  To knock down that cap number, Green Bay needs the extension (trade or release), not Bakhtiari.  Keeping Bakhtiari through 2024 would make him a free agent in 2025. The Packers would be eligible for a compensatory pick but it could be no higher than a 5th by rule because he is a 10-year veteran.

CONCLUSION:

If Bakhtiari is unable to play most of the games or his performance declines significantly, that changes the calculus (and makes this article moot).  Since we do not know what the medical staff thinks about his knees, I can make an argument for offloading the risk by taking the first good offer that comes along, be it in August, October, or next March.  If Bakh seems healthy, a good argument can be made for keeping him in 2023, and perhaps 2024, to aid in Jordan Love’s development and to fairly evaluate Love’s performance, or just because the team has blossomed into a contender.  [Having just watched the draft night podcast with Aaron Nagler and David Bakhtiari, I feel impelled to note that Bakhtiari seems like an extremely likeable person, and one who might be a very good locker room presence.]

It isn't the most provocative conclusion, but I think the proper answer is to evaluate this situation at the trade deadline, and if no move is made, once again by March of 2024, by which time some decision has to be reached.  If Bakhtiari is still on the roster in February of 2024, at least we will know how the Packers young players, by which I mean draft picks from 2022 and 2023, performed, along with important players like Nijman, Gary (coming off injury), Jordan Love, and Bakhtiari himself.

Photo courtesy of Eric Hartline, USA Today Sports