The Packers Must Bring Quick-Developing Concepts To Minnesota
Quick-developing plays are the best counter to Brian Flores' blitz-heavy defense.
It's Minnesota Vikings week.
The Green Bay Packers face Sam Darnold and the Vikings in Minneapolis on Sunday at 3:25 PM CT. A win would keep Green Bay's hopes for the fifth seed alive, but they must also beat the Chicago Bears and rely on a Detroit Lions win in Week 18.
Green Bay secured a playoff spot with Monday's win over the New Orleans Saints, marking their 13th postseason appearance in 16 years—the best mark in the NFL. With that achievement, the pressure eases for the final two regular-season games. However, the Vikings, a playoff-bound team and potential postseason opponent, present a great challenge that offers the Packers a valuable test against one of the league's hottest teams.
These teams met earlier in Week 4, when the Vikings beat Green Bay 31-29 at Lambeau. That game marked Jordan Love’s return from an opening-week MCL injury in Brazil. Love delivered a Brett Favre-esque performance with 54 pass attempts, 389 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions.
In Week 4, Minnesota exploited Love’s limited mobility from his knee injury, pressuring him 25 times and delivering 8 hits. However, the current Jordan Love is healthier and more confident than the version they faced in September.
Love hasn’t thrown an interception in five weeks, though a near-pick against the Saints was negated by New Orleans getting in their own way. Over the last 16 quarters, he’s been sacked just once, thanks to solid offensive line play and his Houdini-like ability to avoid negative plays in the pocket.
Brian Flores will likely send the dogs after Jordan on Sunday. Love hasn’t matched his performance against the blitz from last year, though he remains effective. In 2023, he led the NFL in big-time throws and completions under pressure, ranked third in passing yards, and recorded 10 touchdowns to just 1 interception when blitzed. This year, however, his completion percentage is down 3.6%, and he leads the league in interceptions against the blitz, with more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws. Love threw two interceptions against the Vikings when blitzed in Week 4. While his knee injury limited his ability to navigate the pocket, Flores also did a great job of disguising coverages.
However, in their second meeting, Green Bay can take advantage of the blueprint the Los Angeles Rams provided to counter Brian Flores' heavy blitz philosophy: quick-designed plays that attack outside the numbers.
Sean McVay attacked the Vikings in the flats with screens, exploiting one of the weak points of Flores' schemes. In that game, Matthew Stafford completed 16 of 20 pass attempts that either went behind the line of scrimmage or traveled 0-9 yards, including one for a touchdown. Stafford averaged 7.5 yards per attempt on screen passes, a top-ten stat among quarterbacks with at least 125 dropbacks. A week earlier, Jared Goff completed all 15 of his passes for 138 yards, all of which traveled 0-9 yards or were thrown behind the line of scrimmage. Minnesota’s aggressive defense allows those quick, easy completions to turn into big chunks.
I'm not saying the Packers need to make quick, developing plays the bread and butter of their playbook for Week 17. Green Bay is a top-five offense in EPA/pass and has talent in every skill room to punish defenses through a versatile passing attack. My point is: If the Vikings get aggressive, the Packers need to make them pay. Force them to hesitate, and more windows will open for deeper shots downfield. The Packers have been in a similar situation with a divisional opponent before and have the chance to repeat history in 2024. In Week 4 of the 2023 season, the Detroit Lions pressured Jordan Love all night at Lambeau. Matt LaFleur leaned too heavily on long-developing plays, and the offense struggled as a result. But on Thanksgiving, they adjusted, and Detroit had no answers for anything LaFleur threw at them.
Entering Week 16, Green Bay's pass catchers led the league in yards after the catch per reception. Reed had averaged the fourth-most yards after the catch per reception among wide receivers, while Kraft led all tight ends with a minimum of 40 targets, averaging 9.3 yards after the catch per reception. Moreover, Josh Jacobs leads all running backs in missed tackles forced on passing plays.
The Packers need to get the ball out of Love's hands as quickly as possible and let their playmakers work their way through yards after the catch. Green Bay is playing a physical brand of football, probably as physically as anyone in the NFL, and on Sunday, they have a prime opportunity to out-tough a divisional and playoff opponent on their home turf.
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Felipe is a Brazilian Packers writer covering the #GoPackGo for CheeseheadTV, Zone Coverage, and Packers Talk. Additionally, he contributes to Cheeseheads Brazil. Follow him on twitter at @Aceti_Felipe.
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Comments (22)
Cheezehead72
December 27, 2024 at 02:14 pm
On defense the Packers must stop the big play. They need to keep everything infront of them. They might have to play a bend do not break defense. A field goal attempt is a win.
Coldworld
December 27, 2024 at 04:26 pm
On paper that sounds great, except we are not and never have been good at it and we don’t, McKinney aside, have the personnel to play it. Indeed that’s exactly how we gave up 28 points in a half against them at Lambeau.
We are better playing physical, tight coverage and pressing at the line. If we don’t, I don’t expect a good outcome. We may need to play 2 deep safeties, which will put a lot of pressure on the ILBs and slot, but we do have Cooper now, who can cover, which will help. That’s why Nixon needs to stay in the slot as well.
Bitternotsour
December 27, 2024 at 06:42 pm
and when they take away the wide areas and deep routes, they give up the middle and people cry like babies that they allow long drives and no one can cover the middle. Pick your poison. Either we man up outside and give up splash plays or we open the middle. Are the Vikings patient enough to take what's there? They have a pretty talented offensive mind on their sideline. The stakes are higher than any game they've played to date, and Darnold has some ugly DNA.
NFLfan
December 27, 2024 at 02:37 pm
Who will be babysitting Mr.Jefferson? ---
SicSemperTyrannis
December 27, 2024 at 03:34 pm
When we need Ja the most ...
ricky
December 27, 2024 at 03:42 pm
Short passes and screens, some misdirection in the running game, and some runs to keep the defense wary of being too aggressive. Then, play action and go for bigger chunks. But set everything up first, and be ready to throw it into the ground near a receiver, or wing it high and out of the reach of everyone if the pressure is too great.
On second thought, all gas, no brakes. Run up the score, embarrass them at home, silence that horn and the crowd.
HarryHodag
December 27, 2024 at 04:34 pm
If the Packers begin the game with energy and take it to the Vikings they have a puncher's chance, The crowd is going to be outrageous and the Vikings are on a hot streak.
1) Come out with energy.
2) Throw early and often. The first play of the game should be a bomb to Watson. That takes Minnesota out of it's run game reads at least for awhile.
3) Try to keep the game under 17 points. If they try to go score-for-score the Vikings they will lose.
4) Rely on the kicker as often as possible. Forget going for it on 4th and 2. You need the points.
5) Blitz Darnold silly.
6) An extra DB is needed to shut down both Addison and Jefferson.
7) E. Cooper needs to shadow Aaron Jones.
Tough do do all that. I don't think Jacobs will have a great game. Minnesota's front seven is no joke.
Go Pack go!
Packers0808
December 27, 2024 at 05:54 pm
Blitzing is a gigantic No No on Darnold, is when he get ball out quickest and is most accurate!
HarryHodag
December 28, 2024 at 06:22 am
What does Minnesota do against really good quarterbacks? They blitz. Maybe the Packers should follow suit? Sitting back and reading means they get beaten.
GregC
December 28, 2024 at 07:13 am
There's an article about this by Justis Mosqueda on acmepackingcompany. Sam Darnold's stats against a four-man rush this season are basically average, while his stats against the blitz are fantastic. His passer rating against the blitz is 140.4. Mosqueda figures this is likely due to Darnold practicing against Brian Flores' blitz-happy defense every week, plus he's got two WRs who can get open quickly against one-on-one coverage. They are big play receivers who can really make you pay if the blitz doesn't get home immediately.
I would still say that the Packers should blitz at least some of the time, to mix things up, but a steady diet of blitzes would most likely not work.
EricTorkelson
December 28, 2024 at 07:36 am
Geez Harry ... A bomb on the first play ?? The Vikings stack the line and blitz and Loves bomb accuracy is questionable, short quick screens, short quick passes to tight ends , then pound the run game... Lets leave the bombs to right before halftime ...
beerandbrats
December 27, 2024 at 04:51 pm
This game is a very important measuring stick.
Bitternotsour
December 27, 2024 at 06:44 pm
The game is meaningless, we're in the playoffs, we just need to leave the field healthy. I would find it funny if Minnesota catches Detroit and knocks them back to the 5th seed and puts them on the road for the playoffs.
bjkdad44
December 29, 2024 at 12:17 pm
🤞🏻🙏🏻🤞🏻
coolhand
December 27, 2024 at 05:05 pm
I agree. Play action as the Vike's D will be looking to stop JJ, and quick passes to beat their blitzes. All of our receivers should be looking for the blitz and adjust their routes. Quick slants, quick outs, and find the open holes in their defense.
The Packers on defense need to do the same. Pressure Darnold with blitzes and stunts. Seattle put some real pressure on him last week, and although he made some great plays, I think our defense is so much better. Cooper can be a real asset watching Darnold and Jones and attack, attack, attack.
Packers0808
December 27, 2024 at 05:55 pm
Big mistake to blitz Darnold.
LeotisHarris
December 27, 2024 at 07:22 pm
What if the Packers bring a plan for quick developing concepts to Minnesota and leave the plan at the hotel? What if, defensively, the Packers play press coverage to limit Jefferson, Addison, and that other fleet little goober, but let 87 roam free down the middle for chunk plays? What if we pressure Darnold with some of Capers old craaaaaaaaaaaazy blitzes? Like the Double Psycho Package where the ILBs shoot the A gap, and the DLs drop into coverage? Oooh, I felt my d*ck move on that one!
What if we were 11-4 and this game was viewed as the second to the last game of a season in which we're headed for the playoffs? What if MLF has to adjust his game plan? What if Hafley has to adjust his game plan? What if Jefferson goes down in the first quarter, and Darnold in the second with season ending injuries and the Packers win 24.-13, but Love throws 2 Ints and we only get one sack? Will it be a quality win over an elite team? Will the Packers be as good and well-coached as the dynasty in Detroit?
What if our CB room is expected to cover arguably the greatest receiving corp ever assembled in all of Viking's history and they do an adequate job? What if we run the ball, but get away from the run to go three and out, but then go back to the run and have success? What if both teams play well and the Packers lose in a nailbiter? Will that be an indication that there needs to be a shake-up at 1265? And, what if Ja does not play AGAIN while still drawing a paycheck we could only dream of cashing once? What if LVN and Gary *don't* get to the QB early and often? What if neither player employs a double move, but does get to the QB?
What if I posted here without a clue of what unit cohesion or team culture meant? What if I just asked questions, stated the obvious, and rolled out the same inane complaints day after day? Huh? What if?
barutanseijin
December 27, 2024 at 08:04 pm
I don’t know why i bother to post anymore . Leotis says it better.
Bitternotsour
December 27, 2024 at 10:16 pm
not only that, what if we left the plan at the hotel, and the viking agents found the plan. would they think they were the most fortunate franchise in history, or would they think that maybe they were being punked and that it wasn't the plan at all, but a fugazi, meant to distract them from their own plan, which had been meticulously made, with advance metrics and scouting measures and all the latest pro football focus numbers. What if then, the late Bud Grant, burst into the US Bank Stadium, and turned on the air conditioning real high and the fake snow became real snow and the Vikings were suddenly at a disadvantage because it was cold and they weren't expecting it. And then, all of a sudden, Aaron Jones revealed that he didn't really play for the Vikings, but that he was still a Packer and he called out the snap counts to the defense and they had a half click of recognition before the Vikings even snapped the ball. Then what Leotis.
Brucest
December 27, 2024 at 08:37 pm
I think this game is not understood. Unlike many season ending situations. It is the Packers who have nothing to gain with a win. All they can do is move up in the seeding, not win the division or get a home game.Set and Min are playing for the division much more pressure
Oppy
December 28, 2024 at 02:02 am
Re: Jordan Love vs. the blitz::
I believe it was during a Gruden breakdown of this matchup I watched earlier today, but it may have been elsewhere.. the comment was made that since the Packers bye week, Love has actually lead the league in efficiency vs. the blitz.
It's late and I'm lazy; I did not verify the following numbers for myself, but a quick google returned a result from a reddit where a user posted 4 days ago that in Love is completing "72 percent of his passes against the blitz in his last six games. He's 38-of-53 for 523 yards, five touchdowns and 0 interceptions with a 134.4 passer rating."
Take that for what you will.. add in that I would not be shocked if someone told me Love has spent an hour each week studying the vikings defensive looks since their first match up earlier this season. He knows he struggled identifying their disguises and Love strikes me as the type that takes any under-performance very personally and is driven to correct it.
I think the crux of this game comes down to how the Packers ground game finds ways to be productive against an insanely stingy Vikings run defense. If the Packers offense can find a way to stay in the 4 ypc range and force the Vikings to honor the run, and the Packers defense can clamp down on the Vikings explosive plays in the passing game and make them work to travel the length of the field, I think there is a path for the Packers to not only beat the Vikings but win big. Tall order, but I think it could be done.
This game will be about who can out-bluff who. If the Packers can find a way to move the chains on the ground, it will go a long way to forcing MIN to play the run honest (something the Vikes typically haven't had to do much of because they force teams to abandon the run) and open up the play action game. When the Packers do throw the ball, It's not going to be so much about beating the Vikings blitz; it's about identifying when the Vikings -aren't- blitzing, Love identifying the false pressure looks, and making sure he's not mis-reading a front as a blitz and sending deep shots down field expecting a vacancy in coverage only to realize all that pressure at the line bailed out into zone coverage.
So who wins the misinformation game between Packers play action vs. Vikings false blitz looks? It's going to be an exciting game.
porupack
December 28, 2024 at 07:15 am
I think that is a fair piece of advice, and you convinced me the need for quick developing plays to be kind of a staple. I'll see what connections I can pull.
I think this and most games come down to who plays disciplined, minimizes penalties, and missed assignments. The pack loses more games by lack of discipline, gap assignments, blown coverages, INTs, fumbles, holding penalties, neutral zone infractions, missed field goals, and poor special teams play....than from a bad plan. A lot of those seem to be in the past, thankfully. I'm not knocking the need for a good plan, and especially a strategy when the 5 alarm fire trucks come out of the station....but just be zoned in on execution and discipline. If nothing else, they will have had a very fine practice session against Minnepo. Go have a good practice Pack!