It occurs to me that perhaps we should give up the 29th choice for more choices to the 2nd and 3rd .... with the championships stopped I think this draft is very difficult to decipher (excluding striking cases that with choice 29 will not concern us never)
Greetings from Italy
GPG

What is a need pick ? Well, any pick that was seen as a need could be called a need pick when it happens, but when most people talk about need picks, they are talking about reaching down in the draft, taking someone at a position of need when there were players still available in a higher tier.

This creates some problems, because we never know how our teams big board is stacked. For example, some have said that 2020 picks Deguara and Dillon were both reaches, but those that say that cannot know how those players were positioned on the Packers board. Teams stack players differently (sometimes very differently) according to how a player fits into the teams framework/scheme/philosophy. what you might call a reach, they might call best available value.

There is yet another aspect of need. Most fans look at need as pertaining to needs this year. The Packers have shown they view need over a longer term - see the picks of Love and Dillon in 2020, neither were a serious need at that time, but they were both investments for the future.

They may have seen Elgton Jenkins as an eventual successor to Linsley as well. It is not just the current year that has needs. For example, maybe the Packers spend a first rounder on a WR this year, simply to cater for the possible loss of Davante Adams when he comes due for a huge $20+m pa contract, after 2021.

Given that the Packers could use help at most positions, any pick at DL, OL, CB, or WR even, could qualify as a need pick even if it isn't a 'reach'. With no high-end pick playing there now you could add an elite ILB, and if Preston Smith is gone, OLB as well. I doubt a RB get taken that early, but I expect Aaron Jones to be gone and maybe even Jamaal Wlliams.

So what I expect to happen, is that during the draft, a while before their pick comes due the Packers look at how many players are left on their highest remaining tier. Depending on how many there are, they might move up (if the top-tier number is small), stay put, or even move back in the draft if they could do that and still get a player from the same highest tier.

So, criticising a team for reaching is both very subjective, largely guesswork, and relying too much on media big boards. Generally it is unwise to call certain picks a reach because of all the uncertainties. With plenty of hindsight you might make these calls, but hindsight is a luxury the team doesn't have on draft day.

Previous research shows:

Correlation between Draft Position and "Starter Status"

Using Pro Football Reference as a resource, I looked at all players who were classified as starters at the beginning of the 2014 season to determine what round they were drafted in upon entering the league.  Of the 595 players designated as such, the results reveal the following:

Nearly 30% of all starters were 1st round draft picks when drafted into the league;
-          Roughly 30% were taken in either the 2nd or 3rd round;
-          Roughly 26% were taken in either rounds 4 through 7;
-          Undrafted players (14%) were the 3rd most likely group to comprise 2014’s starters…only behind 1st round (30%) and 2nd round (18%) picks.

If the scouts and front office have done their job and developed their board - then follow the board. The "trying to catch lightning" or "be the smartest guy in the room" dynamic that takes hold of some people is dice rolling. Trust your process and your board. Don't panic and don't reach! The only qualifier that I will throw into the soup is "tie goes to the area of need". We don't need more TEs when an equal choice is available at LB, DL or Slot Receiver.

As of now our choices to replace King are Jackson, Hollman, or Ento. I am not confident with any of them as starters. Free agency is a total mystery because we don't know who, what, when, how.

....TOTALLY DISAGREE!!!!....the reason the Packers missed the SB is they were missing that ONE extra dynamic player on offense....J. Jefferson, or on defense P. Queen, perhaps.....if you try to get positional talent in FA, it'll cost you.....hence, the reason why GB are over SC....

I hope the BPA is an ILB, then.

So True -
To me It also comes down to how they evaluate on roster talent - Are they happy with Yosh, Runyan, Chandon, Hollman? Patrick, Turner, Elkins at Tackle? If we don't know its tough to discuss.

To me if Elkins isn't their RT of the future I'd suggest a starting OT and Center. They need a OT that can play LT to start the season and be prepared for Injury. Then Let, Turner, Patrick, Lang, Elkins and Stp battle for the interior. The Packers are going nowhere w/o a good OL.

Slot CB are affordable in FA. I keep saying pass rush be it edge or interior in the draft. In the end to the writer's point its positional value BPA while still keeping an eye on need (if close) in the 1st couple of rounds.

Love to see an in depth analysis on whether Kenny Clarke could be an stud 3 or 5 technique in a base 3-4 Defense, if so then IMO it allows for more of a run stuffer NT in Base which are cheaper and more available than a 3 down DLmen,

Well, 2020 proved not to draft for need. Clearly the Packers perceived a need at QB when they drafted Love. Maybe not an immediate (start now) need, but a need at a very valuable position. The problem is.....they completely misperceived that need. I guarantee when they sit back and analyze the 2020 season, they regret TRADING UP to draft a player that may not play for 3-4 years.

They need to draft the best player available that can help us now. That doesnt mean the player that is going to play the most, rather the best player that can be an asset on the field in 2021. Whether thats an edge, DT, S, Outside Corner, Slot corner, WR, TE, etc.

If a QB falls to us....I dont care if hes the highest ranked player, DONT draft him!

We passed on TJ Watt, traded down to pick a player that fit a "need" That decision has haunted us for 4 years now.

I just look at TB and KC. And wonder what we need. Gute has over 30 years experience. Yet, if Need wasn't the priority last year. Why should it be this year? I tried to follow his thinking. To be honest; I can't. I see his mistakes every draft. So it has to be potential. But that doesn't fit either. Hole? Thats it. He sees the HOLE! Not Need! He shuts eyes and fills NEED later. So replacing Rodgers was a Hole? Yes, if you need money to be like KC and TB. He's after money. Of course his drafts make sense. Their all about Money. Not Need. Not winning the draft. Well Done Gute. If only the draft Gurus agreed with you.

From my perspective, I see there is a high probability that Packers will pick an OT in the first and a CB in the second. These two areas are their biggest immediate need and aligns well with 2021 Draft depth.

OT: There is an unusual number of quality OTs in this year's draft of a quality one could associate with a Bryan Bulaga caliber rookie. Normally these guys are gone well before pick 29. Not this year. Guys that would normally be gone by pick 20 will be available in the top of the 2nd round. The Packers need a quality, young OT now and they are virtually guaranteed multiple quality OTs will be available at 29 that they would never expect to see in other years that late in the draft. Grab one and smile.

CB: There are a few top-tier CBs that will be snapped up early in the draft that the Packers will have no chance at. After those blue chippers, there are about ten others that have an equal chance of being quality players/starters in near future. In short, a CB picked at 29 will not have a significantly higher chance of being successful as what the Packers will be able to select at 61. All these "red chip" CBs should be gone early in the 3rd so either they take one in the second round or take their chances with whomever is on the roster now. Personally, that thought makes me a bit queezie.

Of course the Packers could take a quality WR or LB or DT in first two rounds and get a good return, but they have a better chance of getting a good player in the later rounds for those positions than they would to find a good OT or CB. Bakhtiari in the fourth was situation where a great player was on a terrible team so he slipped much further than he would have if he was on good team. Sam Shields was a blazer who played mor WR in college so he got overlooked. I don't know why Tramon Williams was an UDFA but it shows there are always diamonds in the ruff, but finding CBs like those guys outside of first two rounds is extremely rare. Packers need talented CB this year and I don't see them not taking one in first two rounds. I just see the OT talent depth is way too good for them not to grab one of those guys versus a higher risk CB that they can get a round later.

I can't see that as being much of a problem. We have significant needs at wide receiver, defensive line, left tackle, and cornerback. If the top player on the board happens to be an inside linebacker, that would be okay and the same goes for an outstanding edge rusher, especially if Preston Smith is released.
Player evaluation is going to be more difficult this year due to the restricted information on college talent for the draft. Thus, I think trading down to someone looking for a 5th year option on a late round one quarterback, should be a consideration and we could add one or more draft choices in what may be more of a crap shoot in this year's draft compared to prior seasons.

Perspective: we can't do any worse than '89.

Trading out of the 1st round you loose the ability to use a 5th year option. That doesn't help you unless the player is good, but it's great when they are. Look at Jaire.

No, we need day 1 starters. We have a 3 year window for a super bowl (max). 2- #1's for a top 3 #1a WR who will start day 1 across from Adams that does not drop 50 % of our MVP QB's passes that are in the bread basket. Now if Jones moves on we have a legit weapon on offense to replace a lot of his dynamic. If we have to release P. Smith to get a lot better FA CB, it is a must. Gary needs to start, like he should have been half way thru last season. FA DL who can rush a little more than our backups. Finish draft out CB, OL, DL, ILB, Punter, ST returner, etc. We're in a window folks, move up to Glory, Gute. Adams is going to get doubled constantly unless we upgrade WR position in a big way.

great article, thank you

Every draft pick is for the future. You want to have day 1/2 guys be good enough to warrant a second contract. Meaning they are around 7-9 years. Considering only the first of those years is foolish on so many levels. First and foremost, that year is almost assuredly that player's worst year of those 7-9. Next, how can you possibly know your positional needs for even the back half of a 4 year rookie deal? We've all seen positions shift from weakness to strength or vice versa in the span of 2 years before. Happens all the time.

So the first "need" that should be considered is the need for good players. That trumps all. If there is a pool of players with similar grades, then you look to things like positional value or who has an easier pathway to significant snaps based on the roster.

It's a tough thing to balance correctly. Getting it right is important. Which is why there is such a thing as the Draft Industrial Complex. And two networks broadcast 3 days worth of NFL teams deciding who they will pick. And so many people have strong opinions to cuss and discuss leading up to the actual draft and coming out of it.

I'm not a draftnik. I don't follow college football closely enough to know which players would be good picks for the Packers early in the draft. However, what I do know is that even picking in the late 20s, there must be a WR, DL, or ILB who is better than what we now have at those positions behind Adams at WR, Clark At DL, and Kirksey (now gone) at ILB. Therefore the choice of a QB and then an RB in 2020 resulted in ???!!!

The same is true for 2021. I can't believe that there won't be a WR, or DL, or ILB who would not be better than MVS, or Lowry/Lancaster or whoever at ILB in the first and second rounds. I would also be fine with an OT or CB in rounds 1 and 2 as well.

My point is I would not necessarily draft for need but I would draft to try to improve the team for the coming season and therefore the future at weaker position groups like the DL, WR, or ILB.
Gute did not do that during the first 3 rounds in 2020. Hopefully he will in the 2021 draft. Thanks, Since '61

I really have an issue with drafting for need philosophy - but I also have an issue at BPA - especially when you are drafting at 29. Now if you are looking at a QB and are up higher then maybe at 16 you might see somebody "fall" to you and you may take them even if you have your roster stacked. But other than that, what is the difference between BPA and need down the draft board when you are talking about 7 rounds times 32 players plus compensory picks - 240 or so players. Obviously and especially because there are so many draft pick busts ( Look at TT's first round busts and he always took best player available so he said) how can one not find a potential starter at whatever position you need in he early rounds??? That is unless there is a particular position that is particularly weak that year.

And as I said before what is this dumb thing about talking about getting to the NFL cap floor again?? There is a cap ceiling which has not been determined and a cap floor which a team cannot be below - but writers use cap floor all the time - Just read - """The Packers are around $12 million over the projected salary cap floor of $180 million. They must be under by the start of the new league year later this month.""""

I agree with Gatorjason. OT in the 1st and CB in the 2nd. That's where the strength of each position aligns with the Packers picks. There's a lot of quality O-lineman available at the top of the draft and after a few blue chip CB's who'll be long gone by the 29th pick there are a bunch of mid 2nd-late 3rd rd CB's available. Use the 3rd and 4th round picks to address other needs such as RB, WR, D-line, ILB or Edge.

The way many have screamed that having a first round pick after 20 becomes the 'reach' line from BPA, though for GB it's whenever they select, every pick afterwards becomes more a need selection. The only thing that counters that is when a player outside that line succeeds to top 20 level, which again GB seems to fail at also a lot. If you're not getting a top 20 and for some top 15 players in the first round, you may as well draft for your needs among those left on the BPA list constructed. The problem is making sure your BPA list actually has the BPA on the list in proper order, another thing GB seems to fail at.

I wonder, does GB select players based on the likelihood of retaining after the rookie contract or to simply limit the chances of the higher known talent leaving in FA the moment they can? Is the miss rate on true talent on purpose or simply incapable of recognizing them?

TJ Watt was clearly the better BPA on any teams list over King and certainly would have made a larger impact on the team, day one, and that impact would have eased the issues of the secondary with or without King. So, what are the Packers thinking when such obvious errors take place? Do they just like to reach for players? I'm not sure if they even reach well.

I definitely won't be surprised to see another head scratching draft. It's what I've seen from this organization over the past 10 seasons, and I've seen the same excuses to avoid picking by need.

"We gnashed our teeth and shook our fists and pronounced it the stupidest draft of all time. "

I think it was warranted.

"But one year later, second round choice AJ Dillon looks talented enough to move into the featured running back position if Jones and Jamaal Williams both depart."

It's odd Gutekunst still tried to re-sign Jones if that's the case, although I do think he was the best player selected in the Packers draft last year.

"And Jordan Love? One day he may be nothing less than the face of the franchise. We simply don’t know and won’t know until he gets his chance. At least there’s a prospect that gives you hope there is life after Rodgers. "

That could happen sure, but I'm more interested in seeing the organization commit to a Superbowl. It's odd to me that the Packers would be more focused on an Aaron Rodgers replacement than the current needs of other positions. If Rodgers really is the best ever, then the Packers have their best chance with him to win a Superbowl than at some point in the future with Jordan Love.

"Should the Packers reach for the 8th best tackle? The 5th best corner? A D-Lineman without a first round grade? "

Yes, they should if we're talking about the 8th best tackle out of a entire draft with hundreds of players available. That wouldn't be bad at all. "

"Now, if the Packers do feel they have to draft for need, they should bundle picks and trade up high enough to get a true first round talent, or at least someone they have graded as such. But even then there is no sure thing, no guarantees."

There is no guarantee following the "best player available" approach works either. They might as well try to get players to fill open positions or will this be another year of having no linebacker depth?

"Better to have a surplus of really good players at a position and figure out how to use them, than to have all of your starting line-up set with mediocre talent. "

Where have the Packers had a surplus of good players at one position? The running back position is about to be depleted. There is one good wide receiver surrounded by complimentary pieces. I think you could make a case that the offensive line has the best depth, but I wouldn't argue for good depth at many other positions besides maybe outside linebacker with Smiths and Gary. Corner depth is bad. Linebacker depth is nonexistent for multiple years now. Defensive line depth is lacking too.

"Free agency is for need. Day Three is for need. The top of the draft should be for best player available. "

Free agency can be used for need when there is money available. They used that money in 2019. Now they only have the draft and undrafted free agents to fix needs. I guess you could throw in trades, but the Packers haven't done much in terms of trades lately.

I agree with Lass, mostly, but what if our pick at 29 happens to be the best player on the board AND a position of need? We need ILB, DT, OL, CB, and maybe a RB. If the BPA is one of those positions at 29, I say we draft that guy.