Welcome back! Today, we continue creating our call sheet based on how the Packers offense performed by down/distance in 2022. Last week we looked at 1st & 10, so today finds us digging into 2nd & long (where “long” is 7+ yards).

The offense was only able to manage a measly 3 yards on 1st down - or maybe they threw an incomplete pass - which whittles down the menu a bit. This section of the call sheet is a little more pass-heavy, as a run for a couple yards makes 3rd down a little tougher.

Once again, we’ll be using Football Outsiders definition for a successful play here. They define a successful play on 2nd down as one that gains 60% of the yards needed for a 1st down. So let’s take a run through that.

The Packers performed well on this down. In this range, they faced an average of 9.97 yards to go, and they gained an average of 6.8 yards per play, for a success rate of 47.6%. That saw them tied for 2nd in the league, behind the Chiefs and tied with the Bucs. If you’re into math (and why wouldn’t you be), that saw them following up a 2nd & 7+ with a 3rd & 3. Not too shabby.

Let’s look at how they were able to find success.

PASSES

Stick (One-Man) (7.4 YPA)

Looking to get back on schedule after a lackluster showing on 1st down? Can I interest you in some classic West Coast ball control concepts? Good, because that’s what these first 3 concepts are, starting with Stick.

The one-man version of Stick is run from a two-WR side. The outside receiver will run a vertical/clear-out route, while the slot receiver will run a Stick route. Technically there’s an option here depending on the leverage of the defender. If the defender is shading outside, the route will be a quick comeback/hitch route at 5 yards. If the defender is playing straight-up or shading inside, the route will be a 5 yard quick-out. The vast majority of the time the Packers run this, it’s the out variety. Three step drop, hit the back foot and get the ball out. It’s as simple as simple can be. Rodgers is a master of the quick game, so this became darn-near automatic. We haven’t seen enough from Love to know how consistent this will be with him, but, for now, we’re keeping this.

A little Stick/Quick-Out on the left. Clear-out on the outside & Doubs working out of the slot. Slot DB is showing blitz, but backs off just before the snap. Contacts Doubs at the top of the stem, but Doubs stays on his path and makes the catch. pic.twitter.com/reuD8xgA5V

— Dusty (@DustyEvely) April 19, 2023

Dragon (aka Slant/Flat) (6.2 YPA)

I touched on this concept a little last week. Another West Coast concept, designed as a quick-hitting call control concept. The outside receiver runs a slant while the inside receiver runs a flat underneath. Easy read that gets the ball out of the quarterback’s hand quickly. In its base form it’s not going to be a gamebreaker, but it’ll get us into a more favorable 3rd down.

If you're thinking about the Packers short game, chances are you're thinking about Dragon (Slant/Flat). Wait for the flat defender to clear the lane, then fire on the slant. pic.twitter.com/noWlrVkMAu

— Dusty (@DustyEvely) April 19, 2023

Hank (6.3 YPA)

Another one I talked about last week. Nothing flashy, but it can be an effective little concept. The inside receiver will run a hitch while the inside receiver will run a flat route. If the hitch is run by a TE and the flat is run by the RB - which is often is - the hitch will work as a natural pick on a linebacker, allowing the RB to release into a nice bit of space in the flat.

Packers running Hank on 2nd & long: a simple ball control concept that can turn into a little more than that with a guy like Christian Watson in the fold. pic.twitter.com/cDprLrUzlE

— Dusty (@DustyEvely) April 19, 2023

Mesh (9.3 YPA)

Mesh has been a big problem area for the Packers over the last few years, but I desperately wanted an excuse to bring it back and a 9.3 YPA on 2nd & long was certainly that excuse. 

I’ve got a couple reasons for wanting to bring it back. For starters, it’s a beautiful and flexible concept. It was born in the LaVell Edwards BYU teams, and became a household name due to the efforts of Hal Mumme and Mike Leach. It’s a concept that involves all 5 eligible receivers on a play and can have answers against every type of coverage. At its heart are two dueling drags, and the rest is all up in the air. When it’s really working, it can feel like it’s nearly impossible to stop.

Since Love has his college roots in a very Air Raidy system, it’s a concept he would be extremely comfortable with. If they add some more speed in the draft (or see Bo Melton getting some snaps), this could be lethal. It worked well for them in this spot last year (in admittedly limited usage), but it could be a nightmare for defenses in 2023. 

The Packers have not had the best success with Mesh lately, but they always seem to find success with it against the Lions. Deguara pushes a little deeper to get in the way of the LB, opening up the drag to Lazard. pic.twitter.com/RYSu4m0THF

— Dusty (@DustyEvely) April 19, 2023

PA Boot (17.4 YPA)

A core concept to the offense overall. It performed better here than it did on 1st & 10. It gets a place here because it was a solid call on this down & distance in 2022, but also because of how central it is to what the Packers do on offense.

PA Boot is a concept that is central to a lot of offenses, but, as defenses have adjusted, it has become less effective. It's nice to have built-in answers. Here, Lewis blocks down to sell the run, then works into the space created by the flood. pic.twitter.com/3tBeAQZwim

— Dusty (@DustyEvely) April 19, 2023

Portland (39.0 YPA)

A cousin of the Mills concept: one of my favorite shot concepts. Portland revolves around a post/deep-crosser from one side of the formation and a dig from the other side. The idea is to put the deep safety in a bind. If he falls under the post, throw the dig. If the dig brings him up, you have an ability to take a shot over the top. (I say “deep safety”, but it’s also something that can work extremely well against two-high defenses, as the safety away from the post route out of a Quarters look will rotate down to pick up the dig, opening up a nice avenue for that deep shot.)

You don’t want to build your entire 2nd & long package out of shots, or you’ll be facing 3rd & long more often than not. But a man cannot live on quick-game concepts alone, so we’re gonna look to take a least one shot off of this. After watching Stick and Dragon and Hank, you may very well catch the defender on their heels a bit with this one.

Deep shot on 2nd & long against the Bears. Jackson gets caught looking on the PA and pulled up by the shallow crosser, giving Watkins a lot of room over the top. pic.twitter.com/4Jl7SanKnf

— Dusty (@DustyEvely) April 19, 2023

RPOs

Wide Zone/WR Screen (9.4 YPA)

This RPO didn’t do that well overall, but it shined in this spot so it stays in. This is a simple pre-snap read. Look at the numbers on the pass side. If you have one more player than they do, pull up and throw. If there are even numbers on the pass side, that means they’re a little light against the run, so hand the ball off.

This is an RPO, with a WR screen tag to the backside. It's a simple math problem. The Bills have 2 defenders for 2 receivers to the pass option, so Rodgers hands the ball off. pic.twitter.com/Jk2XPzSCsk

— Dusty (@DustyEvely) April 19, 2023

Inside Zone/Bubble (7.5 YPA)

Same basic idea here. Total pre-snap read based on numbers. It had limited usage by this down & distance in 2022, but it was effective. It’s an easy read for the QB and a nice way to get some much needed simple yards on 2nd & long.

Inside/Split Zone run with an RPO Bubble tag. The pass/run determination is made pre-snap, either based on a numbers advantage or defender depth. They end up handing this off - which worked well - but the DB on the right is playing off, so you'll sometimes see them throw this. pic.twitter.com/J74oNKwe49

— Dusty (@DustyEvely) April 19, 2023

RUNS

Wide Zone (5.0 YPA)

As I mentioned last week, I’m pretty generic with my run tags. We’re going to be seeing a lot of Wide Zone calls in this series, because it is effective and central to the Packers offensive identity. 

Dillon finding a cutback lane on 2nd & long and just fighting for whatever he can. pic.twitter.com/kGiBfHjgBR

— Dusty (@DustyEvely) April 19, 2023

Power (8.7 YPA)

For the Packers, Power didn’t always involve a lot of pulling offensive linemen. They tried to lean into that a little early in the season but, with the issues on the offensive line, they scrapped it. Instead, they married some of those ideas with their Wide Zone base and found some really good success with it. 

Right now - at this very moment - Vince Lombardi is smiling.
Sure, he's also fired up and ready to coach some of the finer points, but he's smiling on the inside. pic.twitter.com/mIG2tGEjoq

— Dusty (@DustyEvely) April 19, 2023

This series is still a bit of a work in progress, but I hope it’s working for you all. I wanted to include these play diagrams last week as well, but time conspired against me a bit. I think we should be good on that front going forward.

If you missed the first couple parts of this series, you can go back and read those. I promise they're not completely terrible.

The Intro
1st & 10

Albums listened to: The Tallest Man on Earth - Henry St.; Feist - Multitudes; Temples - Exotico; Fenne Lily - Big Picture; Kid Koala - Creatures of the Late Afternoon; Crocodiles - Upside Down in Heaven