Packers' Surplus Value At The Halfway Point In 2019

Are the Packers getting a good bang per buck?

Last year I attempted to calculate the Packers' surplus value using my own valuations of each player's worth and their corresponding cap number (as opposed to cash or AAV).  Readers did not nitpick my own estimations too much, and while I tried very hard to look for comparable players and otherwise be objective, still the valuations were really just my own opinions.  So I was happy to see an alternative.

This year Overthecap is offering its valuation of the worth of almost every player in the NFL.  OTC does not explain its exact methodology, noting that it is proprietary, but does indicate that it is based on playing time and PFF grades, among other tools.  If you subscribe to its premium service, you can see each player's valuation for the entire year to date.  You can also look up each player's contract individually to see the valuation.

Overthecap does offer a lot of interesting information for free, including surplus value numbers for each team, though I am not sure just when they were calculated.  You can peruse their information by clicking here.

It appears that the Packers have a surplus value of $62.55 million, with $16.29 million derived from the offense, $44.7 from the defense, and $1.56 million from the specialists on special teams, with the bulk of that surplus coming from Scott.  Those numbers make sense to me.  Most of the main players on offense are at least in the second year of their contracts or further into their contracts.  In contrast, some of the main defensive players are in the first year of their contracts or still on their rookie deal.

I have listed some of the valuations for the offense that I found particularly interesting in the table below.

Player Value Cap # Net
Aaron Jones $12.57M 0.645M +$11.925M
Valdes Scantling $7.11M 0.624M +$6.486M
Elgton Jenkins $6.97M 1.230M +$5.74M
Bryan Bulaga $9.73M $8.35M +$1.38M
Corey Linsley $4.63M $8.15M -$3.52M
Davante Adams $4.52M 10.85M -$6.33M

Jamaal Williams provides a nice surplus, and Jimmy Graham's valuation is about the same as I gave him last year, which results in a $6 million negative net value.  I am a bit surprised that Linsley's valuation is so low, but PFF only assigned an overall grade of 64.5 to him.  Davante Adams' valuation also seems low given his elite PFF grade but he has missed half of the games so far this season.  Many of us have floated the notion of re-signing Bulaga if possible for the 2020 season, so his valuation is also of considerable interest.  Since Lane Taylor went on injured reserve after just two games, the bulk of his $5.475 million cap charge counts as a net negative. 

There are also interesting valuations on the defensive side of the ball.  Here is a table of the ones I found interesting.

Player Value Cap # Net
Blake Martinez $11.71M $2.12M +$9.59M
Kenny Clark $9.63M $2.98M +$6.65M
J. Alexander $6.48M $2.74M +$3.74M
Kevin King $2.81M $1.93M +0.880M
Montravius Adams $0.153M $0.872M -$0.719M
Adrian Amos $4.18M $5.90M -$1.72M

The valuations for Martinez and Clark are particularly interesting due to the debate over whether to re-sign Martinez and when to extend Clark.  ZaDarius Smith provided the most net surplus with over $10 million followed closely by Martinez and Preston Smith. 

Another thing of note is that almost every defensive player had a positive net value, with the exceptions of Adams, Amos, Tramon Williams (and he at least was valued at more than his AAV of $5M per year), Keke, Gary, and Hollman, who has hardly played.

There certainly is not a lot of love for the secondary.  Alexander and Tramon Williams are valued as lower mid-level cornerbacks, and King as a backup or rotational player.  Savage gets nicked for missed time and thus his valuation is a little lower than Amos'.  Sullivan gets a nice valuation given that he is a part-time player.

The valuations for the backups on the defensive line are scathing.  Clark is shown above, and Lowry gets a respectable value roughly in line with his cap hit for 2020.  Lancaster, Adams, and Keke all got terrible valuations.  Keke was valued at $32,000.  He has only played 35 snaps plus 6 more on special teams, but that is still a very low number.  The backup inside and outside linebackers all got bad valuations even if a few managed to have positive net values due to special teams value.

$34.65 million of the $44 million surplus on defense comes from ZaDarius and Preston Smith, Martinez and Clark.  The cap hits for the Smith tandem will increase by $18 million next season.  Martinez will be a free agent or get a new contract, and Clark is in line for an extension.  That sounds ominous, but the reality is that cap hits fluctuate.  The total value of the offensive players is $125.5 million, which exceeds the value of the defensive players ($100.9 million in total).  The offense and defense value combined was $226.4 million.  

The Packers do have $16 million in dead money, but $11 million of that is due to Perry.  That probably should not be attributed to GM Gutekunst.  The Packers have $1.1 million on the PUP, but Campbell seems likely to return shortly.  I do not know what the team intends to do with Greg Roberts.  The Packers also have $3.4 million of cap charges on injured reserve.  Note that since Greene and Taylor both played in games this year, they were included in the surpluses of the offense and defense, respectively.  Still, the Packers players have a $62 million surplus the way I interpreted the data.  

For context, I took a look at the Detroit Lions this year.  I arrived at a net positive surplus of $38.04 million for the 3-3-1 Lions.  Like the Packers, they have some timing issues regarding their cap hits.  Trey Flowers has a $6.4 million cap number for 2019, and thus he generated a healthy $4 million surplus, but he was signed for $18 million AAV.  He will have to improve greatly next season in order to avoid having a negative net value.  Slay is not having a good year but has a large cap number, so he generates a huge negative net value.   The total value of all of Detroit's players was $200 million, $26 million less than the Packers.  Last year, using my own figures, I calculated a surplus of $28.93 million for the then 4-3-1 Vikings and $31 million for the Packers.

Special Teams

Last year I was not sure how much value to assign to players whose primary value is on special team units.  It appears that Overthecap assigns a lot of value to special teams.  If the reader uses this link, and then clicks GB as the filter, one can find OTC's valuations for the play of each member of the Packers for that specific game (week eight).  Aaron Jones had a spectacular game and is listed as having a value of $14.44 million annualized based on that specific game.  

What is also listed is each player's positional value and their overall value.  I assume any differential is due to special teams play.  Aaron Rodgers' positional value is the same as his overall value I believe because he does not play special teams.  BJ Goodson's overall value based on week eight alone is listed as $1.23M but his positional value is listed at $793,000, a difference of $437,000.  Goodson does not play any position other than thumper inside linebacker and special teams, so I deduce that the $437,000 is Goodson's value on special teams annualized using week eight as the baseline.

Bear with me here.  Goodson played four special teams snaps in week eight.  Annualizing that means 4 snaps times 16 games for a total of 64 snaps for the whole season, which is apparently worth $437,000.  That works out to $6,828 per special teams snap, the highest on the team.  [The ST average/snap runs from about $4,000 to $5,600 or so in the main.]  I do not know if Goodson had a good or bad day as an inside linebacker, but he only played 3 snaps there.  Goodson averages 21 snaps per game on defense and 16 per game on special teams.  Overthecap suggested that his overall value for the year so far is $2.41 million.  I do not think it is possible to be sure, but I would guess that two-thirds of his overall value derives from special teams.     

I looked at the play by play and snap counts.  The Packers kicked one field goal and had 4 extra point attempts, for a total of five ST snaps for those types of plays.  I noticed that Jenkins, Bakhtiari, Turner, Light and Patrick all played exactly 5 ST snaps.  Then I looked at the difference between the overall value of those players minus their positional value, and each had a differential of $467,000.  That cannot be coincidence.  Apparently, Overthecap assigns a value of $467,000 to being one of the linemen on point after attempts and field goals tries.

Ty Summers played 20 special teams snaps and none on defense against Kansas City.  Overthecap listed his overall value as $1.484 million annualized over the season but based on his play during week eight only.  For the season, Summers' value is listed at $1.27 million.  He must have had a good game on special teams.  It appears that Redmond's annualized ST value was $1.449 million (14 snaps), followed by Vitale at $1.191 million (15 snaps).  There were 28 special teams plays during the Kansas City game: 4 extra points (GB), 3 extra points (KC), 1 Field Goal (GB), 2 Field Goals (KC - one was no good), 6 Kickoffs (GB), 6 Kickoffs (KC), 3 Punts (GB) and 3 Punts (KC).  Summers and Burks led the Packers by playing 20 ST snaps each. 

There is a lot of interesting analysis provided by Overthecap.  You can look up any of the teams, any player, any position group, to check and compare the players or teams.  I strongly recommend taking a look.

Oh, yes, it looks to me like the Packers are getting good bang for their money.

 

 

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Comments (17)

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Turophile's picture

November 02, 2019 at 04:39 am

There are some things that need further explanation. One is the cost of cutting a guy. For example, even though Jimmy Graham is a long way from living up to his contract ($12.6m this year) the cost of cutting him BEFORE the 2019 season was so high that it wasn't worth it. AFTER the 2019 season, the cap hit is down to £3.6m, so expect him to be released after this season. I know the calculation isn't designed to highlight things like that, but this is part of what causes teams to cut or keep guys.

I also don't think it means much to have a low value on guys who were drafted this year (and haven't played much). Some rookies just aren't ready for NFL time right out of the box, and are an investment for the future. Therefore, calculations on these players are not very relevant at this point in time.

A third thing is injuries. A player gets marked down for an injury but he cannot do much to change that, since you cannot easily predict injuries. It seems harsh to mark a player down for something he has little control over, but at least it does have an impact on a players value to the team. As the old saying goes "You can't make the club from the tub".

To get a good overall view, you need to apply the various caveats for individual players circumstances, a sort of whole-world view that adjusts value to the team accordingly, and uses this metric as just a piece of a bigger jigsaw.

I am a little curious how guys like Alex Light are graded ? He doesn't play much, but how valuable is it to have a competent backup at tackle on the O line. See the KC game, where he played both at LT (when Bakhtiari was out) and at RT (when Bulaga broke his finger). I'd call him pretty valuable.

Additionally, backup QBs would normally have a similar value whether they are good or awful, if they haven't played any snaps. This is not a criticism of TGR's piece, which is just bringing OTC's calculations, just a warning to widen things out a bit more, to get a full picture.

PS Right at the end of the piece is an excellent piece of advice in how to compare costs of a given unit across all teams. I never thought to explore that, but it is an insight into how varied the approaches of different teams are.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

November 02, 2019 at 11:45 am

First, thanks for reading the article and obviously thinking about it.

1. On Graham, no it isn't designed for that but you can combine your own knowledge to form an opinion. Graham's cap savings for 2020 will be $8M. His value in 2018 was $6M (my opinion) and $6.18M for 2019 (OTC's opinion). The $3.66M has already been spent and is a sunk cost. It has no place in my evaluation GOING FORWARD. I don't see why Graham won't be worth $6M in 2020 against an $8M charge. That's a negative, but it isn't terribly large. $6M is a lot of value for a TE and LaFleur's offense likes TEs: can GB get $6M in value from Tonyan and Sternberger in 2020? That's why I want to watch Tonyan and Sternberger play these last 8 games.

Strangely for a cap-obsessed fan, I reach the opposite conclusion on Graham in 2020. If I think he will be worth $6M again in 2020, I would not cut him unless Tonyan and Sternberger light it up in the last 8 games. Cutting him just leaves a big hole that needs to be filled with other resources.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

November 02, 2019 at 12:22 pm

2. Having some patience with rookies is necessary, but low valuations on your rookie class is not unimportant. I agree that Gary wasn't expected to light up the NFL as a rookie, and GB should bide its time and hope for the home run in 2020 and beyond. OTOH, GB needed Savage and Jenkins to come through. Patience with some, immediate help with others is my mantra. Lower picks and UDFA one can have lots of patience with. I love this Hollman kid, who hasn't played at all, and I am willing to be really patient with him since I see an outstanding (at the NFL level) trait: man to man coverage. Yet I can't argue that Sullivan ($3.48M value - $570K cap) is really coming through for GB.

Low valuations on higher picks who are in their 2nd to 4th seasons is a big deal. Montravius Adams is in his 3rd year but still is wildly inconsistent. Josh Jackson has been reasonably healthy but just isn't very good. Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams ($3.09M value) and MVS (plus rookie Jenkins) are providing the surplus value on offense.

3. Injuries. Might be harsh, but no one has value on the field if they are in the tub. Players can't make up for missing 8 games if they are high priced. Now, Ibraheim Campbell has missed 8 games: my bet is that he ends up providing surplus value. Raven Greene played two games, but OTC has him with a value of $1.56M value so he will have a surplus even if he doesn't return this year.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

November 02, 2019 at 12:43 pm

Light was valued at $891K vs. $571K cap hit, so he had a $320K surplus. He played 76 offensive snaps and 38 ST (he is on the FG and Pt after unit). He had one bad outing earlier in the season and a good one recently. OTC valued him at $2.54M for week 8 (annualized).
Patrick is valued at $2.28M, which includes the game he started and played pretty well. Both have surpluses.

If you haven't played, then there is nothing to evaluate and OTC just leaves the value blank, or zero. There is almost no way to know whether that player would be good. So blanks for Boyle, Madison, Sternberger, Campbell. Whatever the team paid them is a negative.

Doesn't seem fair? I don't know if Light actually had to start and other teams got to look at his film and study him whether he'd still be pretty good or if he'd be terrible. Ditto for Lucas Patrick, though there is probably more film out there on him. OTOH, I think Campbell is going to do a nice job replacing Raven Greene, so I get your point here. He was on PUP instead of being the backup, but it is sort of similar.

You probably could come up with a valuation for the longer-term career utility back up types like Barclay. When GB had Tretter healthy for that season backing up Linsley, most knew Tretter could play well. He got hardly any playing time so his value was low in these estimates. Valuable knowing he was there to back up, but when he became a FA, GB let him walk because to GB having a $5.6M AAV backup made no sense.

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mnbadger's picture

November 02, 2019 at 08:56 am

Sorry for being lazy, anything on Rashan Gary?

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

November 02, 2019 at 11:17 am

Gary's value was placed at $1.15M. He has a $2.89M cap hit, so his net value is minus $1.74M.

Gary has played 127 snaps (24%) and has a 55 PFF grade.

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LambeauPlain's picture

November 02, 2019 at 12:38 pm

Yeah, it seem Z took the heat for the pot charge when he was pulled over for speeding with Gary and Keke in the car.

I expect/hope Z just gets his wrist slapped by NFL. But his mulligan is now used.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

November 02, 2019 at 01:48 pm

As far as fans know, ZaDarius Smith has never been in the NFL protocol - that is, this appears to be his first incident. Jones got two games, but had prior activity in the protocol and he pled guilty to having weed in his system while driving. Smith was cited for simple possession.

My own guess is Smith gets referred to the NFL's Stage One program where a clinician sets up a program for him and he gets tested for 90 days or longer. If Smith has no prior contact with this NFL system, penalties are limited to fines. No suspension is imposed.

Stage two is more drastic, but Smith isn't there as far as we know. In a change just adopted for 2019, players who fail a drug test aren't subject to suspensions until they fail four times. It used to be on the 2nd failed test. I haven't seen the language of this amendment, just media summaries.

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PatrickGB's picture

November 02, 2019 at 09:24 am

One mans trash is another mans treasure. I wonder how much value a certain player is to a specific team vs another team. For example, Martinez is practically our only decent MLB. Yet if he played for another team he might be considered a backup. And special teams gunners are often keys but are often lousy at their position outside of teams. Janis is an example of that.

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Guam's picture

November 02, 2019 at 09:42 am

I am surprised at the negative grades for Linsley and Amos, particularly Amos. I thought both have played well this year and Amos has really solidified the secondary. The Packers have given up fewer big plays and the middle of the field has become a much tougher place for opposing receivers to ply their trade. The Amos valuation has me questioning PFF's grades as well as the formula to some extent.

Very interesting work TGR! From the 50,00 foot view, it certainly verifies that Gute is a pretty good judge of talent. To me his only real miss has been Graham and that was a move made out of desperation. The Packers really needed a TE and Graham was widely viewed as the best on the market at the time.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

November 02, 2019 at 12:59 pm

I agree, particularly on Linsley. Yes, his PFF grade is lower but it is still average. He played Goldman, then Linval Joseph, then Shelby Harris (not a big name, but he's good: 81.5 PFF grade), then Fletcher Cox and Co., then Dallas' DT, who are okay, then Snacks Harrison, who might be down a little, and Oakland with Jonathan Hankins and Maurice Hurst who are above average though not superb, and then KC who had everyone injured. OTC thought Linsley had a bad game against KC, valuing him for that game alone at $4.7M (for the season Linsley is a $4.6M but GB is paying him $8.15M).

I think Amos' is too low as well. Truth is I don't think he has played as well in GB as he did in Chicago, but he is playing far more in the box and some as the hybrid ILB. Still, he is an average to solid starting safety and I would have assigned something around $7M. He is such a huge upgrade over Brice that I have to clear my mind before giving him a number. The biggest thing I like about him is he comes up, limits the gain, and makes a sure tackle. He doesn't herd the player out of bounds, all the time letting the runner gain yards.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

November 02, 2019 at 01:17 pm

So, anyone for Martinez at $11.71M AAV? Should Gute pounce?

So, anyone for Clark at $9.63M AAV? I'd be all over that, but I think he gets a ton more.

So, anyone for extending Bulaga at $9.73M AAV for 3 years? Due to injury history, lets say 3 yrs/$31M, $6M signing bonus. Contract looks like this:

$7M Base/Bonus, $2M SB, $800K active, $500K W/O $10.3M cap
21: Dead $4M, $2M SB, 6.5M Base, $800/500, $9.8 Cap
22: Dead $2M, $2M SB, $8M base, $800/$500, $11.3M Cap.

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Samson's picture

November 02, 2019 at 03:04 pm

Interesting numbers... I'm glad someone else is on top of the cap. -- I know it baffles me to a large degree. -- A pure balancing act.

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flackcatcher's picture

November 02, 2019 at 04:13 pm

I see Nick Perry still has value to the Packers......//////////

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Travis72's picture

November 02, 2019 at 07:36 pm

Gute will not give Martinez 12 million a year when he is just a solid player. Last week he was ranked 29th among inside linebackers.

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Bearmeat's picture

November 03, 2019 at 05:47 am

Great stuff, TGR. I am no math dude and these numbers make my head spin. I'd have to sit down with a spreadsheet and read the article really slowly to figure it out myself. You have a knack for making the incomprehensible less intimidating. Thanks.

That said, to me (and this is entirely possible that I'm dead wrong here), it looks like OTC has a bunch of assumptions built into their algorithm: How each team uses each positional player is going to be different. For example, how Amos has been used (as you mentioned above) since Greene's injury has undoubtedly made him less effective. Or how Martinez is used. How on earth do they come up with 11m AAV for him? I would be really upset if they resigned him for that amount.

Anyway, thanks for the write up!

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jkoenzuraida's picture

April 02, 2020 at 07:51 am

I don't have that much free time on my hands LOL

Jane of https://www.cincinnatisepticservice.com

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