Some Notable Draft Trends Under Brian Gutekunst

Brian Gutekunst has been the General Manager for only three drafts, but in that short time, there are a few tendencies that he's developed. 

Brian Gutekunst has been General Manager of the Green Bay Packers for about three years now, which in the grand scheme of things when you consider the tenures of Ron Wolf and Ted Thompson, isn’t very long.

Yet in that relatively short amount of time, which has spanned three NFL Drafts, there are several trends, or tendencies, that Gutekunst has developed. At this point, I wouldn’t consider them the be-all-end-all when it comes to the draft, but as you look at mock drafts, create you’re own, or evaluate prospects, these are certainly worth keeping in mind.

And because Gutey worked under Thompson for years, some of these draft habits, for lack of a better word, go beyond his three years at the helm.

Gutey loves elite athletes

This is probably the most well-known tendency that Gutekunst has, but he loves drafting elite athletes at their respective positions. If you're unfamiliar with the Relative Athletic Scoring table (RAS), it was created by Kent Platte as a way to compare the athleticism of players at their respective positions as it rates them on a 0 to 10 scale based on their measurements and athletic testing from the Combine and their Pro-days.

With 10 being the best and 5 being average, most of Gutey's draft picks scored 8.0 or higher, with above 8.0 being "great" and above 9.0 being "elite." Out of the 25 eligible draft picks who scored on the RAS table, 22 of them were above 8.0, and of those 22, 13 were above 9.0. Jake Hanson and Cole Madison were the only two whose testing numbers were below average. 

Three of a Kind

During Thompson’s final draft in 2017, he selected three running backs — Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams, and Devante Mays — that year, and since then, Gutey has taken three players of the same position in two of his three drafts.

In 2018 he would select receivers J’Mon Moore, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Equanimeous St. Brown. Then last year, he took three interior offensive linemen in Jake Hanson, Jon Runyan, and Simon Stepaniak.

This year, cornerback is a prime candidate to join this list with it being such a deep class and the fact that the Packers have Jaire Alexander and a whole lot of question marks on the depth chart behind him.

Positional Value in Round 1

A lot of mock drafts, and I mean a lot, have the Green Bay Packers taking a wide receiver or a linebacker in Round 1. While I can understand why, history says otherwise.

Since 2005, the Packers have spent just one first-round pick on a receiver, linebacker, tight end, or interior offensive lineman, according to Ross Uglem of Packer Report. Meanwhile, 15 first-round picks have gone towards a quarterback, offensive tackle, interior defensive lineman, cornerback, safety, and edge rusher.

They spend premium picks on the premium positions and Gutey has done the same with cornerback, edge rusher, safety, and quarterback being his first-round picks so far. The Packers' biggest needs heading into this year’s draft include cornerback, interior defensive tackle, and offensive tackle--I'd bet that one of those position is what's selected.

Trading up

One difference between Gutey and Thompson is that Gutekunst loves to move up in the first round. In fact, he’s done it every year.

After trading down initially in 2018, he traded back up to snag Alexander. Then in 2019, he traded up for Darnell Savage, and of course, last year, he moved up to get Jordan Love.

With 10 total picks, including a pair of fourth-rounders, don’t be surprised to see the Packers moving up once again.

Pairing rookies with veterans

As Packer fans are aware, Gutekunst doesn’t like to just throw rookies — even top picks — into the mix. He errs on the side of bringing them along more slowly than quickly—and there are plenty of examples of this.

Before drafting Jackson and Alexander, Gutekunst re-signed Davon House and brought back Tramon Williams. As good as Alexander has become, it wasn’t until Week 8 of his rookie season when he returned from an injury that he was on the field for just about every defensive snap.

The following year Gutey signed The Smiths and drafted Rashan Gary. He would also sign Adrian Amos and Billy Turner while drafting Darnell Savage and Elgton Jenkins.

And last year, he would draft Jordan Love with Aaron Rodgers still cemented as QB1. Gutey would add AJ Dillon to a running back room with Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams already in it, while selecting Josiah Deguara to join Robert Tonyan, Jace Sternberger, and Marcedes Lewis.

Now, this isn’t to say that an early-round pick won’t be an impact player in Year 1, but Gutekunst makes it so they don’t have to be either. If they need more time to adjust to life at the NFL level, there are veterans to lean on.

Expect the unexpected

This might be the most important takeaway from all of this. When everyone expects Gutekunst and the Packers to zig, they instead zag.

Not many, if any, expected the Packers to take Rashan Gary, but they did. When everyone was expecting a receiver in Round 2 of the 2019 draft, they took Jenkins, and they didn't draft a receiver at all in 2020. Then last year, they began the draft by selecting a quarterback, a running back, and an H-back.

On top of that, there are all of the first-round trade-ups, Gutey selecting the same position multiple times, and I’m sure some other items that I’ve forgotten about as well.

Now entering his fourth NFL draft, regardless of what happens and who the Packers select, we shouldn’t be surprised because, at this point, the unexpected should be expected.

 

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__________________________

Born and raised in Green Bay, WI and I still call it home. After my family, watching the Packers, sharing my opinions on the team through my writing and interacting with other fans is my greatest passion. You can find me on Twitter at @Paul_Bretl. 
 

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Comments (31)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

March 26, 2021 at 07:48 am

Good overview. Gute does seem to like to double up at a position or by pairing a high pick with a FA acquisition.

Gary was a surprise, but picking an edge or an OLB was not unexpected. Jaire played 70% of snaps in his first game as a rookie, though he did not start, and then played 77% of possible snaps in game two, though again he was not the starter. Jaire started game three and game four, but got hurt and missed three weeks, returning in week 8. Yeah, sometimes the first-round pick gets thrown into the skillet right away.

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dobber's picture

March 26, 2021 at 09:32 am

Does this mean he's going to draft an extra long-snapper?

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stockholder's picture

March 26, 2021 at 07:50 am

Gutey falls in Love with players. TT didn't. Gutey doesn't care about costs. TT did. Gutey No longer takes a player to set his draft. Gutey has No patience. He says one thing and does another. Sound like a woman? My belief is Gutey lost his Balls. The draft is No picnic. We all gave Gute 3 years to win a super-bowl. Sure he got a closer. But the last 2 years just show he's heading in another direction. What changed. He's gotten away from the strength of the draft. The BPA isn't what he's looking for. The releases don't match the fix. More picks are siting the bench instead of playing. The bottom line is What does Gutey want this team to become? Champions or a toy he can play with?

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gkarl's picture

March 26, 2021 at 08:05 am

Bottom Line, maybe he's just like the rest of us armchair GM's around here, a toy to play with.

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4thandinches's picture

March 26, 2021 at 08:35 am

Classy post. Not sure why you need to slam women to make a point.

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stockholder's picture

March 26, 2021 at 10:55 am

The nature, characteristics
or feelings often attributed to woman, wasn't a slam. Their body is different. The difference is obvious. The anatomy of the human body, was the best way to to show the difference/ changes in him. Obviously you thought wrong.

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4thandinches's picture

March 26, 2021 at 11:48 am

Anatomy and negative behavioral characteristics ascribed to an entire gender by a patriarchal system to invalidate said gender are 2 very different things. Anyway...

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JerseyAl's picture

March 26, 2021 at 11:58 am

Not buying that. "He says one thing and does another" has nothing to do with anatomy and who is "often attributing those characteristics and feelings to women?" You?

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Coach Cleve Steamer's picture

March 26, 2021 at 08:14 pm

Thank you, JerseyAl.

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Coldworld's picture

March 26, 2021 at 09:35 am

This team is being shaped to fulfill LaFleur’s vision, the reason that Murphy hired him. Asking the question of the wrong man. The question for Gute is how well has he matched players to LaFleur’s wish list.

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murf7777's picture

March 26, 2021 at 11:10 am

CW, right on...highly athletic HB and bruising tail back. The writing is on the wall for all to see.

Like it or not, Gutey is drafting for Mlf vision and that makes sense. We don't want the GM and HC on different scripts. The reality is this teams wants to be physical on Offense (unlike MM finesse Offense) and this year will be the year that the pieces fall together. There is a reason GB didn't draft a WR in the first rounds the last two years. That's because they are more interested in being a punishing running team with a lot of pre-snap movement and play action. Of course, that only brought us to the top Offense in the league last year.

So, criticize all you want, but the drafting is plain to see.

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Stroh's picture

March 26, 2021 at 12:48 pm

I don't see LaFleurs offense the last 2 yrs as being physical. It relies on Rodgers and a passing game abd a200 lb RB! Nothing about those say physical... drafting Dillon and Deguara may be a step in that direction but that remains to be seen. If uour truly a physical offense you don't care much about the motion abd pre snap movement, you line up and simply punish the D by running it straight at them! Outside zone running isn't a physical running scheme either its actually finesse oriented.

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murf7777's picture

March 26, 2021 at 10:58 am

" He says one thing and does another." Do you really think GM's state their objectives to the public?

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dobber's picture

March 26, 2021 at 02:31 pm

Don't bother. This has been his numb-from-the-neck-up crutch argument for awhile now.

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Stroh's picture

March 26, 2021 at 12:39 pm

To put it simply, your clueless!!

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Coldworld's picture

March 26, 2021 at 08:31 am

I’m not sure it’s Gute who decides when to blood players once they are on the roster. That seems out of his zone of authority. It also seems pretty clear that Murphy has given LaFleur much more influence on the shape of drafts than MM had in order to implement LaFleur’s vision. Last year’s draft was (Love aside) a kit for a 49er type offense conversion.

Gute certainly has been willing to trade up to grab players considered a plus (if not necessarily immediately). He’s also been willing to trade down if he doesn’t see value. To me, it seems from what the Packers have been doing as if this year the focus will be more on playing now (to supplement player retention). For that reason, I would not be surprised if we focus more on immediate need CB and maybe DL, and look to move accordingly.

I do expect us to refil the WR pipeline later and the CB room early and often. I wouldn’t be surprised if we take ILB/hybrid/DBs in the mold that Barry wants to man the middle either. Since we basically have nothing obvious behind two second year ILBs, Sullivan and the two starting safeties.

The other factor is Gute’s use of the PS to accumulate prospects, which has been a theme of his. Who on futures contracts etc ( practice squad holdovers plus a few others) is seen as a genuine prospect? I suspect that there is a DL (Rush), TE (Nuata), RB (Taylor/Williams), OLB (Tipa), OL (Johnson/Hansen) and at least one CB (in addition to Ento) who are considered genuine roster prospects (I may have names wrong, just my guesses).

This is not TTs practice squad but something Gute uses to stock and upgrade all year around. That could be a significant factor overlooked above in the likely shape of the final roster. Not all those mentioned of course, but a few.

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Razer's picture

March 26, 2021 at 08:52 am

I am not sure about Gutekunst "not falling in love" with players. He has pushed the panic button to move up and get guys that he claims were targets of other teams. Love and Savage were trade ups at high prices. Gutekunst also overdrafts IMO. Dillon and Degaura were reaches last year, again IMO. I am hoping that he controls his urges this year and lets the draft come to him a little more. Trade down would be my preference as the messed up college season and opt-outs have pushed a fair amount of talent into the mid rounds.

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murf7777's picture

March 26, 2021 at 11:24 am

While dillon and Deguara might be called reaches and I certainly can understand the thinking. Time will only tell on that pair. The reasons for picking them are obvious thou. Smash mouth football with very athletic players.

Regarding Savage, I believe trading a low end 4th round pick to get a high end safety shows a very solid move. Savage has pro-bowl type talent.

Wasn't it Gutey who fleeced New Orleans the year before to trade down and take Alexander while also giving him the opportunity of getting Savage? Savvy move. Every GM will have their failures, but overall I'd give Gutey a B+ in his moves.

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Lphill's picture

March 26, 2021 at 09:00 am

Corner is a must but you can't start a rookie corner opposite Alexander he would get picked on all game, God forbid Alexander gets hurt there is no replacement, I see Gute having to use two picks on corners ,no depth now on the D line ,no depth on inside linebacker, this is a critical draft .

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Razer's picture

March 26, 2021 at 09:35 am

...I see Gute having to use two picks on corners ,no depth now on the D line ,no depth on inside linebacker, this is a critical draft ...

True enough. I'll add OT to this list because after an injured Bak, we don't really have any true starting tackles.

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frankthefork's picture

March 26, 2021 at 10:37 am

I would say that Turner looks comfortable as the RT! Patrick is a very good RG, but expect him to be the C and Runyon to be the RG. Jenkins will be an all pro for years at LG, why move him?. So who gets to be the LT before Bak is ready?. IMO it's Veldheer or a rookie.
It will be a tough task and spot to fill for a rookie; Hanson , Stef, and Ny are not ready to start it appears, as these guys have rarely been on the NFL playground.
Help for the DL and backfield are also priority. So I keep going back to OT, CB and DT as the 1,2,3 picks like Cosmi or Mayfield, Stokes or Molden, and Shelvin, McNeill or ILB. Time will tell us what Gute thinks in a month. GPG.

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Lphill's picture

March 26, 2021 at 03:52 pm

Runyan made 26 starts at left tackle in college , he will be a starter on the O line sooner rather than later somewhere .

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splitpea1's picture

March 26, 2021 at 11:17 am

Agree, although I would like to see three picks used on CB because we have an extreme depth and quality problem after Alexander. King is probably going to get picked on anyway, so the sooner we can get a promising replacement in there to get some experience, the better.

Here's the time where Gute needs to be rational and devote most of this draft to defense.

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murf7777's picture

March 26, 2021 at 11:27 am

I agree splitpea1, D is priority, although, I'd add OT to the first 3 rounds.

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splitpea1's picture

March 26, 2021 at 11:34 am

Absolutely.

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dobber's picture

March 26, 2021 at 02:37 pm

"King is probably going to get picked on anyway, "

My thinking, too. You play the best guy you got in that spot.

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PatrickGB's picture

March 26, 2021 at 12:03 pm

Yah, I can see a corner being drafted. Probably one with a high RAS.

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murf7777's picture

March 26, 2021 at 10:44 am

Great draft analysis....."They spend premium picks on the premium positions and Gutey has done the same with cornerback, edge rusher, safety, and quarterback being his first-round picks so far. The Packers' biggest needs heading into this year’s draft include cornerback, interior defensive tackle, and offensive tackle--I'd bet that one of those position is what's selected."

This is one reason GB is in the playoffs year after year after year. They get it, spend your resources on the key positions. You can't pay all positions highly, the SC won't allow it so, as a GM, you must make those decisions and GB gets it!

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PatrickGB's picture

March 26, 2021 at 12:00 pm

If I expect the unexpected then it’s no longer unexpected.

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Stroh's picture

March 26, 2021 at 12:36 pm

More than anything drafting in rd 1 it has always been about positional value. QB, OT (specifically LT) CB, Pass Rushers (either Edge or DT). Those positions affect the game far more than others. Safety isn't of highest priority but would fall in the next tier with WR.

It started when Wolf took over as GM and has continued thru Thompson and now Gutey. Been preaching it for more than a decade now, mostly fans have deaf ears and listen to the media and mock drafts unfortunately for them.

This year I expect either OT or CB. DL is possible but its a poor draft for DL.

Drafting at #29, means your likely drafting 2nd rd talent. Most drafts have about 25 players with 1st rd grades, which partly explains Gutey moving up from late rd 1 to take Jaire, Savage and Love, since he was trying to pluck off one of the last players with a 1st rd grade!

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flackcatcher's picture

March 26, 2021 at 01:57 pm

Brian Gutekunst in his end of the season pressers, has always answered question about Packer moves. Never has he engaged in GM speak. Not once. So when he said he was looking at RB and TE and OL last year in his presser, the Packer media and most of the fan base thought he was playing typical BS mind games that GM's do. So what does he do, he drafts for those positions, and the fan base and media goes nuts. From day one as Packer GM, Gutekunst has always laid out the Packer plan going forward. So when he says he has a plan, he has a plan. (His first presser he said he wanted to draft Gray and a CB, that CB was a need. And he did just that)

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