The NFL Draft is just a few hours away, and after months of speculation and reading mock draft after mock draft, we’ll finally know who the Green Bay Packers will select in the first round. While the first-round pick is always the most exciting—bringing the most anticipation and the highest on field expectations—the Packers’ recent history with first-round selections has been shaky, to say the least.

For every Aaron Rodgers, there’s a Damarious Randall. For every Jaire Alexander, there’s a Justin Harrell. Although the Packers have hit on the most important, franchise altering first-round picks over the last 20 years—namely the franchise quarterbacks—they haven’t always maximized the value of those crucial selections. Where they have consistently found value, however, is in rounds 2 and 4.

During both the Brian Gutekunst and Ted Thompson eras, rounds 2 and 4 have produced high-quality players who made an instant impact. It’s been well documented that the Packers haven’t selected a wide receiver in the first round since 2002. But why would they need to when they can regularly find talents like Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, Randall Cobb, Christian Watson, and Jayden Reed in the second round? I wouldn’t expect Gutekunst to change that strategy this year either, not with a track record like that.

While the second round has been a goldmine for receivers, the fourth round has done the same for offensive linemen. Ted Thompson struck gold in back-to-back drafts in 2008 and 2009, selecting college tackles Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang, who were converted into Pro Bowl guards. In 2013, he drafted a little-known offensive tackle out of Colorado named David Bakhtiari, who took over as a rookie and never looked back. That same 2013 draft also brought in center J.C. Tretter, who, although his Green Bay career was shorter, went on to be a very solid NFL player. Brian Gutekunst’s best fourth-round pick so far is right tackle Zach Tom, one of the most important building blocks on the current roster and in line for a sizable extension.

Just last season, Gutekunst delivered a masterclass in rounds 2 and 4. Two key pieces of the Packers’ improved defense—linebacker Edgerrin Cooper and safety-turned-slot-corner Javon Bullard—came from the second round. Bullard was a starter from day one, logging over 72% of defensive snaps as a rookie. Cooper, despite a season start hampered by injuries, was arguably the team’s best defender not named Xavier McKinney by the end of the year.

In the fourth round, the Packers selected safety Evan Williams. Despite mixed reactions to the pick—due to perceived concerns about his agility and athleticism—he’s expected to start opposite McKinney for years to come. That one draft class turned two of the Packers’ weakest positional groups, linebacker and safety, into two of the most promising units heading into 2025.

I might be in the minority with this line of thinking, but I believe the Packers could benefit from trading out of the first round to acquire an extra second-round pick. They did exactly that in 2008, trading the 30th overall pick for the 36th (second round) and 113th (fourth round) picks. They used pick 36 to draft Jordy Nelson and packaged pick 113 to move around the draft board and select Josh Sitton. I’m usually not a big proponent of trading back, but if it gives the Packers more shots in the rounds where they’ve historically dominated, I’m all for it. The thousands of Packers fans in attendance at the draft in Green Bay, anxiously awaiting that first-round announcement, might feel differently.

This is all to say: we need to see the entirety of the draft before we can judge it a success or failure. If, five years from now, the first-round pick is on another team—or out of the league entirely—but players taken in the second, fourth, or later rounds are signing second contracts, and are key contributors of this team, that’s a successful draft. It’s not about where a player is drafted; it’s about the impact they make.

So when you see the big G flash across your screen and see the words “THE PICK IS IN” during rounds 2 and 4, pay attention. History that’s where the Packers make their money.