Two division leaders meet in prime time as the Green Bay Packers (9-3) host the Atlanta Falcons (5-7) on Monday night for a Week 14 matchup at Lambeau Field. 

1. Drawing the Line

The Packers should enter this contest overflowing with confidence along both lines. On offense, Atlanta will start a struggling first-round rookie at left tackle, an undrafted free agent rookie at center and a second-year college free agent at right tackle. At home, the Packers should be living in the Falcons’ backfield. On defense, Atlanta is last against the pass in large part because the defensive line provides next to nothing rushing the quarterback. The Falcons have 14 sacks in 12 games and rank last in sack percentage. There isn’t a player up front for Atlanta that will legitimately scare the Packers. It’s difficult to envision Aaron Rodgers dealing with too many disruptions Monday night, especially given how well the Packers have blocked in recent weeks. The blowout is on if Green Bay scores a decisive win at the line of scrimmage. 

2. Megatron-ish 

If there’s any player that break the game Atlanta’s way, it’s probably receiver Julio Jones. He massacred Cardinals cornerback Patrick Peterson for almost 200 receiving yards last Sunday, and the Packers probably don’t have a cover player on the roster with Peterson’s natural ability. Jones is powerful and fast, can jump out of the building and fights for every target. He wins at every level of the field and can be dominant near the boundaries. The Packers probably view him much in the same light as Calvin Johnson, an annual foe who Green Bay knows it can’t completely erase from the game. The key is limiting the damage. If the Packers can keep Jones’ chunk gains to a bare minimum, the Falcons probably don’t possess enough other pieces on offense to outscore Green Bay at Lambeau Field. 

3. The One to Watch

Packers receiver Jordy Nelson versus Falcons cornerback Desmond Trufant is the best individual matchup of this game, bar none. Nelson is on pace for almost 1,500 yards and 13 touchdowns, while Truant has quickly emerged as arguably the game’s best young cornerback. The Falcons keep throwing Trufant at the game’s best receivers and he continues holding his own. He has both the size and straight-line speed to matchup with Nelson for 60 minutes Monday night. This Packers offense no longer needs to avoid any one player on defense, but it wouldn’t be surprising if Randall Cobb and Davante Adams run the show at receiver. The Falcons can be had opposite Trufant and in the slot. That said, Nelson will get his looks because he’s immensely talented and Rodgers has complete trust in his ability to beat any corner. The Falcons probably need Trufant to eliminate Nelson to have any chance at the upset. 

4. Keep it Clean

The Falcons are a defense wholly dependent on takeaways. Atlanta ranks 22nd in points and last in yards, but third in turnovers (24). The defense forced three last week in Arizona, giving the Falcons a 5-3 record this season when receiving at least two takeaways. On the flip side, Atlanta is 0-4 when getting one or fewer turnovers. The bad news for the Falcons: No team in football protects the ball better than the Packers, who have just eight giveaways this season. Only three of the eight have come at home—a botched snap against New York, a Matt Flynn interception against the Vikings and a Cobb fumble near the goal line against Chicago. That’s it. Two fluky plays and a pick from a backup quarterback. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t thrown a home interception in over two years. The Falcons probably need at least two takeaways to win, but the Packers simply don’t play carelessly with the football at home. 

5. Loser’s Winnings

Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good. Back in March of 2013, Packers general manager Ted Thompson was probably a few million dollars and one too many years away from signing veteran running back Steven Jackson in free agency. The Falcons offered more money and a longer commitment. Fast forward to December of 2014, and Atlanta has a fading back averaging just 3.8 yards per carry, while Green Bay is living large with a younger, cheaper, more reliable version of Jackson. Eddie Lacy can run, catch and block, much like Jackson was once capable of with the St. Louis Rams. Who knows how Jackson’s last two years would have gone in Green Bay, but it’s safe to say using a second-round pick on Lacy was the better investment. Hindsight is always great. So is getting lucky. 

Prediction: Packers 45, Falcons 24 (8-4)

No more betting against Aaron Rodgers at home. And especially against a team that can’t rush the quarterback or protect its own. That’s a blowout recipe at Lambeau Field this season. 

Zach Kruse contributes to Cheesehead TV. He is also the Lead Writer for the NFC North at Bleacher Report. You can reach him on Twitter @zachkruse2 or by email at [email protected].