Packers vs Bears: Gameday Preview - 2022 Week 2
The Packers and Bears are a historic rivalry... albeit one-sided lately. Will it stay that way tonight?
By BruceIrons
WHEN THE BEARS HAVE THE BALL
It's hard to know where the Bears are on offense after one game. The have a young quarterback, new offensive linemen, and a receiving corps that starts Equanimeous St. Brown.
They played in a monsoon last week, but only put up 204 yards of total offense, compared to the 49ers's 331.
The Bears ran 26 times with their running backs, 11 times with their quarterback, and attempted only 17 passes. The rain really skews those numbers, but the 49ers (with a less-experienced quarterback) were much more pass-oriented, which gives an indication that the Bears are still a run-first team.
However, the Bears first two touchdowns came off big passing plays, including a wide open Dante Pettis touchdown when Field scrambled until coverage broke down and a 18 yard EQ touchdown (also on a coverage breakdown) on a drive that started with a 22 yard pass to Byron Pringle (note: the Bears offense was inconsistent and not all that impressive last week).
The Packers, unfortunately, proved that they aren't unsusceptible to coverage breakdowns in Week 1.
I'd like to see the Packers play Fields the way the played successfully contained Russell Wilson in the past. Push the pocket without pressing for sacks. Keep him contained and make him throw from a stationary position instead of scrambling to but time for his receivers. Then, clean up all the miscommunication on the back end coverage.
David Montgomery is a powerful back, but the Packer retooled front with Kenny Clark, Jarran Reed, De'Vondre Campbell, and Quay Walker should be able to contain him.
The key to the Packers success on defense is to simplify their coverage scheme and not let Justin Fields out of the pocket.
WHEN THE PACKERS HAVE THE BALL
We've been clamoring for the Packers to run the ball more with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon for as long as they've had Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon.
Maybe this is the week they listen.
Aaron Jones had almost 10 yards per carry last week and Dillon had a consistent 4.5. In the rain, when the Bears knew the 49ers were going to run, they let San Francisco rush 37 times for 176 yards.
Matt LaFleur, we're begging you: release the hounds.
With Bakhtiari and Jenkins still not expected back, Jon Runyan recovering from a concussion, and Jake Hanson somehow still in the starting lineup, the Packers cannot expect to hold up in a pass-heavy offense this week. Their passes should be aimed mostly at Jones and Dillon, along with quick slants and the occasional deeper shot.
The Packers started with a pretty balanced 6-5 pass-run ratio in the first quarter last week, before going 10-4 in the second quarter. By the 4th quarter, they attempted 20 straight passing plays without a single rushing attempt to keep the defense honest.
Unacceptable. Especially with two great, healthy backs and a lot of breakdowns in pass blocking.
I know Aaron Rodgers wants to slice it up against the Bears in prime time like he always does, but that will be a lot easier if the Packers keep their play-calling balanced.
It also cannot be understated that the Packers will need to mix things up and get away from their normal tendencies on offense. Luke Getsy has been with the Packers since LaFleur took over. He was the quarterbacks coach and passing game coordinator. Now, he's the Bears offensive coordinator and he will made sure the Bears defense knows everything he knows about how the Packers offense works and how to defend it.
The Packers need to do something different this week that they haven't even thought about in the last three years (like being a run-first team, maybe).
OTHER NOTES
- Equanimeous St. Brown, formerly the Packers WR6, is currently the Bears WR2
- The Packers are 11-1 against the Bears since 2015
- Matt LaFleur has never lost two games in a row in a season
FINAL THOUGHTS
The Packers outclass the Bears from a talent perspective and have dominated recent history. However, that means nothing tonight.
The Bears, like the Vikings, look at this as their Super Bowl. They will be motivated and energized, which is something the Packers seem to struggle with.
This game is simple: keep Justin Fields in the pocket, have some semblance of coverage on the back end, and lean on the best 1-2 combination of running backs in the NFL. Oh, and run special teams to at least a mediocre level like last week. No disasters and the Packers should win.
Packers 23, Bears 13
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Bruce Irons has played, coached, and studied football for decades. Best-selling author of books such as A Fan's Guide To Understanding The NFL Draft, A Fan's Guide To Understanding The NFL Salary Cap, and A Fan's Guide To NFL Free Agency Hits And Misses, Bruce contributes to CheeseHeadTV and PackersForTheWin.com.
Follow Bruce Irons on Twitter at @BruceIronsNFL.
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Comments (17)
mrtundra
September 18, 2022 at 07:44 am
Bears D will make this a not-so-easy game for the Packers. I think the Packers rise to the occasion, though, and defeat the former monsters of the Midway. Look for solid games from Preston Reed, who seals off whatever edge he plays at, on the line, giving the Bears now here to go there. Russian Gary and the DL crumble the Bears OL and pressure Fields. Jaire Alexander, who stops everything and everyone coming his way, Quay Walker, who gets his first sack, as a Packer, Bob Tonyan, who has become Rodgers' favorite target. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, who both wear down the Bears DL and run wild, in the Bears secondary. I also look for ARod to hit a wide open Christian Watson on a bomb down the right sideline, that Watson catches, this time, for a TD. Same play as in the viking game, but a different outcome.(That one for Maggie and Perri). Doubs is targeted as well, as he is open, a lot, to move the chains. Rodgers gets rid of the ball quickly, this game, and the run game figures heavily into the Packers' victory over the Bears, who, by the way, still suck! GO PACK, GO!!!
croatpackfan
September 18, 2022 at 08:30 am
Everybody can dream nice dreams...
stockholder
September 18, 2022 at 08:32 am
If you can't pass. You won't win. This is a rivalry. They know each other too well. Don't take the ball out of Rodgers hands.
PatrickGB
September 18, 2022 at 09:29 am
I agree. And don’t fumble when getting sacked. ;-)
Have #12 throw quickly and to to the open receivers. Whomever they may be, even if it’s a short gain. Get in a rhythm and keep the defense guessing.
barutanseijin
September 18, 2022 at 12:27 pm
Can 12 just throw to whomever? Does he even go through his progressions to see who is open?
At any rate, it'd be great if he did that. I just don't think that he will change after years of doing it his way.
LLCHESTY
September 18, 2022 at 02:31 pm
Does he even win MVPs anymore?
murf7777
September 18, 2022 at 10:00 am
They might know us as but over the past decade it hasn’t mattered. If a rivalry means close games and an even amount of victories, than historically that is correct, but over the past decade it hasn’t been close. 21-3 over the past 24, 11-1 over the past 12, 6-0 over the past 6 and over the past 4 games they have won each by an average margin of victory of 15.
IMO, this game will be a blow out with the Rodgers having 275+ and the RB’s with over 150+ and expect between 400-500 yard game by the Pack. The Defense will hold the Bears to under 275 yds and under 17 points, unless they give up a prevent 4th quarter TD.
The Bears are not a very good team on either offense or defense. The only reason they beat SF is because of a sloppy, rain soaking field where an abnormal amount of turnover opportunities were prevalent. It will be a beautiful, calm evening, one set up for an offense to score points and the Packers will in groves.
Coldworld
September 18, 2022 at 11:46 am
If we don’t run we don’t win either. If we don’t run, our chances of keeping Rodgers healthy go down dramatically if we don’t have a healthy Jenkins and trot out Hanson. Even if he stays upright, the bears would be able to just attack the passer all day. Then there is the fact that the 49ers gashed them on the ground at ease and that our passing game wasn’t exactly in sync last week.
Run early, run often and get those runners into the passing game and set up play action while pulling their ILBs forward and making g room for Lazard to thrive. Sit there and throw ad nauseam and bad things will happen. Goodness knows we’ve proved that enough and that was when we had Adams as well. If we haven’t learned that by now, then I guess we never will.
BruceC1960
September 18, 2022 at 08:33 am
Trying hard to be optimistic, but missing 3 starters on the o-line has me a bit worried. Pressure on Rodgers is never a good thing.
SugarCain
September 18, 2022 at 08:48 am
Need a whole lot of #33!!!
Swisch
September 18, 2022 at 09:17 am
Beware an angry Bear!
The Bears are always going to be angry in games against the Packers, plus their recent record of embarrassment against us is going to make them even more ferocious. Add the Rodgers remark about owning the Bears, and they're going to be trying to maul the Packers.
I'm still hopeful the Packers win, but I would advise Rodgers to get the ball out quickly, and to lean on the running game. The longer passes will open up if he's patient.
The idea that any of our division opponents are patsies for the Packers is scary to me. Yes, we should win, but only if we're ready for a brawl each of these games.
murf7777
September 18, 2022 at 09:36 am
Jenkins and Lazard should play, MLF’s team doesn’t lose two times in a row, it’s SNF, Mlf & Rodgers owns Da Bears, the Pack show why last week was an anomaly….need I say more……Oh, I forgot, Da Bears still SUCK….Score 42-13 Pack!
Coldworld
September 18, 2022 at 11:50 am
Rodgers owns the Bears, not LaFleur.
murf7777
September 18, 2022 at 06:56 pm
True but Mlf coaches teams is also 6-0.
GregC
September 18, 2022 at 11:58 am
The author makes a good point about defending Justin Fields the same way they've defended Russell Wilson. It's hard not to see the defense bouncing back this week in a home game against a team that does not have a lot of offensive talent. I think the Packer offense will still sputter but will put up enough points to win.
Leatherhead
September 18, 2022 at 05:00 pm
Run more, pass less, protect the ball and wait for Chicago to make some mistakes .
Tundraboy
September 18, 2022 at 07:45 pm
Pass to the open man !