Packers vs. Bears: 5 Things to Watch and a Prediction

Five things to watch and a prediction for Packers vs. Bears in Week 4.

A loss Sunday at Soldier Field would send the Green Bay Packers (1-2) to the team's first 1-3 start since 2006. 

Percentages are not guarantees, and even last season provided two examples of teams digging out of the hole to make the playoffs (Eagles, Panthers). But starting a season 1-3 is generally a good enough reason to start making offseason plans. 

Since 1990, only 15 percent of teams 1-3 after four weeks have made the postseason, Meanwhile, 36 percent of 2-2 teams have qualified for the playoffs. If history is any indication, Sunday is approaching "must win" status for the Packers.

Here's five other things to watch and a prediction:

 

1. New Jay?

Cutler's career numbers against the Packers are no secret. When including the playoffs, the Bears are 1-9 vs. Green Bay in games Cutler has started since 2009. "I know it's not a winning record," Cutler said this week. He's thrown 18 interceptions with a passer rating under 60 over those 10 games.

The mocking of Cutler's numbers are part of the rivalry, but let's not forget he threw for 226 yards and two touchdowns—with a passer rating of 103.8 and a yard-per-attempt average of 9.4—during last December's showdown in Chicago. The Bears still lost, but the defeat did not fall on Cutler's shoulders, possibly for the first time in the series history. He is now off to the best start of his career with the Bears. Cutler has completed 66 percent of his attempts, with eight touchdowns and just two interceptions—and he's on pace to throw for 4,000 yards and 43 touchdowns. He made one unforgivable throw in Week 1 but has been nearly perfect since. Same ol' Jay? We'll see. 

 

2. Running in Reverse 

Neither offense has been able to run the football with any kind of consistency to start 2014. The Bears are running it less than any offense in football (just 30.4 percent) and predictably have the least amount of rushing yards. The Packers are ranked 26th in yards, 28th in attempts and 23rd in yards per attempt. A big reason has been the fronts faced: the Packers have dealt with the Seahawks (fifth against the run), Jets (first) and Lions (second), while the Bears have played the Bills (sixth), 49ers (seventh) and Jets (first).

Both will have a chance to rebound Sunday. The Packers are allowing the third most rushing yards per game (despite a strong effort in Detroit), while the Bears remain gashable (ranked 26th) one year after fielding a historically bad run defense. Both teams have harped all week about running the ball better moving forward. If the Packers can't run it against the Bears, they might not be able to run it against anyone. 

 

3. Rodgers Comeback? 

Aaron Rodgers has three sub-200-yard passing games over his last five starts, including last January's playoff loss to the 49ers. He's previously never had more than two over a five-game stretch. Rodgers does have eight touchdowns against just three interceptions since returning against Chicago last December, but his 93.2 passer rating is well below his career mark.

His ability to rebound from losses has resulted in some fantastic fireworks, including Week 2's 346-yard, three-touchdown blowup against the Jets and a six-touchdown beat down of the Texans back in 2012. Rodgers has set the bar high for himself over six virtuoso seasons as Packers quarterback. He's a perfectionist who hasn't been anywhere close to perfect to start 2014. The 1-2 Packers now need him to be at his best against a defense that is ranked first in the NFL in takeaways this season (13). If Rodgers is sharp, the hurting Bears secondary should be ripe for the picking. Then again, so was Detroit's last week. 

 

4. Musical Chairs, X factor?

Julius Peppers returns to Chicago, while Jared Allen takes on the Packers for the first time since joining the Bears this offseason. Peppers is vital to Dom Capers' pressure package, and Allen has already rushed the passer over 100 times from the right side of the Bears' defensive line.

Want a better X factor? Try Willie Young, who also played musical chairs in the division during free agency. The Bears have given Young—a former Lion—half the pass-rushing snaps of Allen, but he has four sacks and eight quarterback disruptions. Allen has zero and 10. Young will rush off the left side with speed and surprising power, and he could give Bryan Bulaga problems. Peppers and Allen have both shown flashes—the 33-year-old Peppers had a sack-strip-recovery of Matthew Stafford last week, and the 32-year-old Allen disrupted six dropbacks in New York—but Young is the younger, more explosive rusher of the three. 

 

5. Variety Required

The Packers found out the hard way in Detroit that running a faster version of a bland offense won't always work, especially against a divisional opponent that has an intimate knowledge of Mike McCarthy's play and route combinations. Variety is a must. The Bears might be hurting in the secondary, but lining up with three receivers, a tight end and a running back on 80 percent of the snaps isn't going to fool anyone. Kyle Fuller is as instinctive as any rookie cornerback in years and Tim Jennings is no slouch on the other side.

To be better on offense, the Packers need to run the football and get creative in formations. The Bears aren't as good in the front four, but if Chicago can stop the run with six and seven, while rushing four and playing coverage with seven, it will be another long night for the Packers offense. It's on McCarthy and the offensive coaches to provide the "adjustments" Rodgers so blatantly pleaded for post game last Sunday.

 

Prediction: Bears 27, Packers 24 (2-1)

Harden by road wins on each coast, the Bears are brimming with confidence and returning home to play a team in disarray. Normally, picking a doubted Aaron Rodgers against a hurting secondary would be a no-brainer. But the dysfunction inside the Packers offense feels very real. A road divisional game is a difficult setting for an immediate turnaround. 

 

Zach Kruse contributes to Cheesehead TV. He is also the Lead Writer for the NFC North at Bleacher Report. You can reach him on Twitter @zachkruse2 or by email at [email protected].

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Comments (5)

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FITZCORE1252's picture

September 27, 2014 at 01:52 pm

38-27 PACK

You mentioned the Houston game of a couple years ago, the sky was falling then as well.

Defense has steadily improved each week. We will see the offense execute tomorrow.

#Relax

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FITZCORE1252's picture

September 28, 2014 at 03:08 pm

I gave duh bares too much credit, 10pts too much. My bad.

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PackerAaron's picture

September 27, 2014 at 09:12 pm

Right score Zach. You've just assigned them to the wrong teams. ;)

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

September 28, 2014 at 03:39 am

In his weekly radio show, A Rodgers said he doesn't like motion. Presumably that is not one of the adjustments for which he has been pleading.

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Mario Willis's picture

September 28, 2014 at 08:53 am

The gloom and doom is premature.
We spotted Detroit 9 points. We will not do the same for the BEARS.

R-E-L-A-X!

The Lions destroyed us on Thanksgiving and we bounced back (thanks to the LIONS being the LIONS). We will be fine. Aaron will perform on PRIDE alone.

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