Packers Snap Counts Versus The Bears: Week Thirteen
A not-so-great team beat a bad team.
The Packers elevated Safety Micah Abernathy for the second time and Running Back Patrick Taylor for the second time since he was waived. The Packers signed Innis Gaines to the 53-man roster on November 29th and elevated Abernathy because Darnell Savage was listed as doubtful. The Packers had to keep all of their offensive linemen active in order to have the 48th roster spot open for the game.
The inactive players were Bakhtiari (appendectomy), Savage (ankle), and Doubs (knee) due to injury. The healthy scratches were CB Shemar Jean-Charles, NT Jonathan Ford, and in a surprise, ILB Krys Barnes.
Tipa Gileai had been designated to return from Injured Reserve but he was not activated during his 3-week acclimation period and thus reverts to the Injured Reserve List. Gileai earned $229,166 for being on the 53-man roster for five games and will earn about $325K for being on the IR for 13 weeks since he is on a split contract.
QB Jordan Love, OT Luke Tenuta and OT Rasheed Walker did not play.
| Player | Snaps | % | STs |
| Jenkins | 66 | 100 | |
| Nijman | 66 | 100 | 4-17% |
| Myers | 66 | 100 | 4-17% |
| Runyan | 66 | 100 | 4-17% |
| Tom | 66 | 100 | |
| Newman | 4-17% | ||
| Rodgers | 66 | 100 | |
| Love | DNP | ||
| Dillon | 45 | 68 | |
| Jones | 25 | 38 | |
| Taylor | 6 | 9 | 8-33% |
| Tonyan | 34 | 52 | |
| Lewis | 28 | 42 | 4-17% |
| Deguara | 10 | 15 | 12-50% |
| Davis | 7 | 11 | 19-79% |
| Lazard | 62 | 94 | |
| Watson | 61 | 92 | |
| Cobb | 33 | 50 | 1-4% |
| Toure | 12 | 18 | |
| Watkins | 7 | 11 | |
| 20 on Offense |
The offensive line did not allow a quarterback hit all game, much less a sack. Pro Football Focus singled out Elgton Jenkins as a lineman who did not allow a pressure over 32 pass protection snaps. The Bears no longer have Khalil Mack, Robert Quinn, Akiem Hicks, or Eddie Goldman in their front seven, but one can only play the opponent who is across the line of scrimmage. Despite having no time to prepare, Zach Tom looked good replacing David Bakhtiari, who is out after an appendectomy last Friday. Bakhtiari is likely to miss a couple of games after next week's bye, so there should be plenty of time to evaluate Tom and/or other young linemen.
The Packers ran the ball 15 times for 59 yards in the first half, a 3.93-yard average. Dillon gained 38 yards on 8 carries (4.8-yard average) with a long of 11, and Aaron Jones gained 21 yards on 7 carries. Jones added 5 receptions on 5 targets for 24 yards. Jones only got a handful of snaps in the second half due to an injury to his shin, but he did have 2 carries for 5 yards in the second half, with no targets. Dillon carried the ball 10 times for 55 yards, including a 21-yard touchdown run. It would be remiss of me not to mention a fine block by Sammy Watkins on Dillon's touchdown run and an even better block (if possible) on Watson's 46-yards touchdown run in the second half, since I called for Watkins' release last week. Patrick Taylor got one carry for 6 yards.
Despite lots of time, Aaron Rodgers completed just 18 of 31 passes (58.06%) for 182 yards (5.87 yards/target). Allen Lazard led the way by catching 5 of 6 targets for 67 yards with a long of 21, including quite a few catches good for first downs. Christian Watson continued to supply most of the juice with 3 receptions for 48 yards with a long of 19, a 14-yard touchdown pass on fourth down and goal, plus the 46-yard run noted above and he also drew a 38-yard pass interference penalty. Uncharacteristically, Randall Cobb looked like he had never met Aaron Rodgers. Cobb had no receptions on 4 targets. Samori Toure had one reception on one target for 7 yards. The offense didn't look crisp but they got the job done.
| Player | Snaps | Routes | Targets | Recs | Yds | Yds/Rte |
| Lazard | 62 | 31 | 6 | 5 | 67 | 2.16 |
| Watson | 61 | 30 | 6 | 3 | 48 | 1.60^ |
| Cobb | 33 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Toure | 12 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0.78 |
| Watkins | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tonyan | 34 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 0.56 |
| Lewis | 28 | 7 | 1 | 0* | 0* | 0 |
| Deguara | 10 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Davis | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dillon | 45 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 1.30 |
| Jones | 25 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 2.18 |
* Lewis caught a two-point conversion.
^Watson drew a 38 yard interference penalty
PFF listed Dillon with 2 target, yet he officially caught 3 passes on 3 targets.
Routes statistics from Pro Football Focus Fantasy.
Lazard and Watson ran 61 of the 86 (70.93%) routes run by wide receivers. This is a new statistic to me. Last week Watson and Lazard ran 52 of the 75 routes run by wide receivers (69.33%), so it is very consistent so far. The tight ends ran 31 routes on 31 attempts (100%) this week while tight ends ran 27 routes on 25 attempts last week. The numbers for running backs was 31 routes on 31 attempts this week and 32 routes on 25 attempts last week.
Since Christian Watson returned for full-time duty against Dallas, the Packers have scored 109 points in those four games, a 27.25 points per game average. It would be fair to note that that stretch of games also included the stabilization of the offensive line, with Jenkins continuing to improve and the presence of Bakhtiari for three of those four games.
| PLAYER | SNAPS | % | STs |
| Amos | 52 | 100 | 5-21% |
| Douglas | 52 | 100 | 11-46% |
| Ford | 52 | 100 | |
| Alexander | 52 | 100 | 5-21% |
| Nixon | 37 | 71 | 8-33% |
| Abernathy | 1 | 2 | 7-29% |
| Leavitt | 20-83% | ||
| Gaines | 15-62% | ||
| Balentine | 12-50% | ||
| Carpenter | 10-42% | ||
| Campbell | 52 | 100 | 5-21% |
| Walker | 52 | 100 | 3-12% |
| Smith | 41 | 79 | 5-21% |
| Enagbare | 29 | 56 | 8-33% |
| Garvin | 19 | 37 | 6-25% |
| Hollins | 14 | 27 | 2-8% |
| Wilson | 15-62% | ||
| McDuffie | 15-62% | ||
| Clark | 39 | 75 | 5-21% |
| Reed | 36 | 69 | 5-21% |
| Lowry | 26 | 50 | 9-38% |
| Slaton | 9 | 17 | 9-38% |
| Wyatt | 9 | 17 | |
| 23 on Defense | |||
| Crosby | 10-42% | ||
| Coco | 7-29% | ||
| O'Donnell | 7-29% | ||
The Bears scored 16 points in the first half, powered by big plays. Justin Fields had 70 yards on 5 carries, including a 56-yard touchdown run. That "scrub" Equanimeous St. Brown hauled in a 56-yard bomb over Jaire Alexander and also had a 20-yard reception plus a 9-yard reception. St. Brown did not have a reception in the second half. Their running backs ran the ball 8 times for 24 yards in the first half. Other than the run that ruptured for the touchdown, in the first half Fields gained14 yards on 4 carries, a 3.5 yard average. The Bears converted 4 of 5 third down opportunities in the first half. They scored on 3 of their 4 possessions (excluding a one-play kneel-down at the half) with the only drive that did end in points due to a forced fumble on a hit applied by Rasul Douglas. In the first half, Quay Walker led the Packers with 3 tackles (1 solo), while Clark, Ford, and Douglas each had 2 solo tackles.
Justin Fields only had one carry for one yard in the second half. The Packers again against a running quarterback played fewer true defensive linemen and more ILBs. The Packers finished with 2.0 ILBs per play and just 2.29 true defensive linemen on the field on average per play. I do not know if Joe Barry made an adjustment in the second half to limit Fields to attempting just one rush. The running backs ran the ball an additional 9 times for 58 yards for a 6.4-yard average. There were some big plays. Neal Harry caught a 49-yard bomb over Jaire Alexander's head, and Cole Kmet was a thorn, catching 5 passes for 62 yards. Kmet finished with 72 yards altogether. I note that the Bears pulled RT Reilly Reif to give second-year tackle Alex Leatherwood 10 snaps to see what he could do. Leatherwood was a first-round pick (17th) last year by the Raiders, but was waived after a dismal rookie season. One Chicago blog (Windy City Gridiron) thought Leatherwood held up well. The same site bemoaned the Bears' continuing complete absence of a pass rush.
The Bears first possession of the second half was derailed by a false start and a pass to Claypool that Jaire Alexander blew up for minus 4. The Bears second drive lasted 12 plays and ended in a field goal when Tevin Jenkins was called for holding. Their third drive went 55 yards in 5 plays, but Dean Lowry blocked the field goal try. The Bears fourth and fifth possessions both ended in interceptions, one by Alexander and the other by Keisean Nixon.
De'Vondre Campbell finished with 11 tackles (7 solo), while Jaire Alexander had 7 (6 solo). Quay Walker also had 7 tackles (4 solo). Dean Lowry and Jarran Reed each had one quarterback hit, but there were no sacks. With Campbell and Walker both healthy and each playing every snap, there was no room for Krys Barnes, who was a healthy scratch, nor for McDuffie, who received no snaps at ILB. Since the defense only played 52 snaps, Clark probably was able to handle most of the pure nose tackle snaps, but I was disappointed that Slaton and Wyatt each received only 9 snaps, given how Chicago found snaps for Alex Leatherwood. Hollins was active during his limited snaps.
SPECIAL TEAMS:
Keisean Nixon continues to be fun to watch, if a trifle too exciting. Nixon averaged 25.5 yards per return on kickoffs, including a nice 35 yard return. He also had a very short return. More importantly, he appears able to play defensive snaps and had an interception. Randall Cobb had a 15-yard punt return. O'Donnell averaged 44.7 yards gross on three punts, and 38.7 net. The Packers allowed an 18-yard punt return and a 42-yard kickoff return, and had a dumb penalty on STs as well. Lowry did block a Chicago field goal attempt.
WR: 2.65
TE: 1.20
RB: 1.15
DL: 2.29
ILB: 2.00
OLB: 1.98
DB: 4.73
Snap Counts courtesy of NFLGSIS.
Photo courtesy of Matt Marton, USA Today.
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Comments (84)
Thegreatreynoldo
December 05, 2022 at 05:45 am
If anyone has any ideas on how to look at the route stats, please share them below. The sample size is very small at present, so bear with me while I wait to see if any trends show up.
STs seems better on the return units, though how much to attribute to changes in personnel among the specialists (Nixon and Cobb >> Amari) is open to question. The return units are probably better, but both punt and kickoff coverage units still allow too many long returns.
I got the impression that the DBs didn't respect their wideouts and were looking to jump Fields' pass attempts. I've nothing to back that up with, mind.
I don't know if Barry changed something up or if Fields tweaked his shoulder again. Windy City Gridiron blamed Luke Getsy for making Fields a pocket passer in the second half, if anyone is interested.
Chicago converted 4 of 5 3rd downs in the first half, and 2 of 6 in the second half.
T7Steve
December 05, 2022 at 07:53 am
TGR, I'm with you and hope that someone explains the routs run deal or if it really matters.
I have this question for you. In your first D paragraph you said in the last sentence "Quay Walker led the Packers with 3 tackles (1 solo), while Clark, Ford, and Douglas each had 2 solo tackles." Do you mean tackles for loss? In your last paragraph you told of the tackle totals.
Thegreatreynoldo
December 05, 2022 at 10:00 am
Ah, that was in the first half. I will edit to make it clearer. Thanks for pointing it out.
GB has been so Jekyll and Hyde this year. The splits between one half and the next half often are big, so I have been looking at the stats in the first versus the second half.
T7Steve
December 05, 2022 at 10:36 am
Thanks. I couldn't watch the game live and am still waiting to see the replay if I get the chance.
Leatherhead
December 05, 2022 at 01:45 pm
You can watch any Packer game by going to streameast.io Free. Easy.
T7Steve
December 05, 2022 at 02:30 pm
Thanks LH. I can't do that stuff at home, unless I try on my phone and that doesn't seem like too much fun.
Leatherhead
December 05, 2022 at 09:59 am
The WRs got 17 targets in 66 snaps, with most of those going to Lazard and Watson.
As I've said, ad nauseum, on MOST plays, that superduper WR is a blocker or a decoy. Lazard and Watson each caught about 6 balls in over 60 snaps.....90% of the plays where they lined up, they didn't get the ball. Yet Lazard, for example, helps this team on those other plays by getting his guy blocked.
And the Return Unit.....TGR, there is no correlation between return units and winning football games. If you can find one, let me know, because I don't see it. There's definitely a correlation between turning it over on a return and winning games, which is why we shouldn't return kicks out of the end zone.
Thegreatreynoldo
December 05, 2022 at 10:15 am
I have not come across data showing any correlation between good ST return units and winning football games. I am much persuaded by your oft-stated position about just fair catching the ball on punts.
As for the super duper WR, I do think there is a correlation between having a vertical threat like Watson and winning football games. Watson can also stretch defenses horizontally as well. 4 games is not an extensive data set, and indeed GB lost 2 of those 4 games, but 2-2 is better than 3-6 in the other 9 games. I am not sure where I would start to find that data.
[I confess, I do sometimes smile while I am writing something knowing that you are likely to disagree. Oppy disagrees with me, too, from his comments on other threads about the proper lesson to learn from this defensive effort. I also smiled when I wrote about Windy City Gridiron, if not explicitly blaming Getsy for it, at least wondering if Getsy put Fields in cotton in the second half. ]
Coldworld
December 05, 2022 at 10:26 am
There is a strong correlation between starting field position and success. The real question is how to balance the risk/reward. However, they’re also the factor that teams are no longer kicking short to Nixon. If there’s a refusal to return or perceived vulnerability then a short kick can be used to at worse pin teams deeper and at best hope for a muff.
The difference is, in my opinion, that thus far Nixon has proved to be effective in terms of starting position and security and also a threat to break one. With an O that’s sputtered, the result has been a big help. Most importantly, opponents are not seeing that phase as an opportunity to push for a turnover or safety or a high probability opportunity to start their next drive in a short field. Nixon is not the main one, but he is a factor in our improved O. At some point it will backfire, but the cumulative benefit to this point should not be ignored or overlooked.
T7Steve
December 05, 2022 at 10:46 am
I remember when it was good to always return kicks because it had a chance and if there was a penalty or a bad return, the offense could still be counted on to at least get a couple first downs a flip the field, if not a long scoring drive. Now it seems every time since last year's playoff debacle they get stuffed for 3 and out and have to punt out of the end zone.
Thegreatreynoldo
December 05, 2022 at 10:46 am
No, no, I was trying to needle you about blaming the play caller. 😝
GB in prior years wasn't overly bothered by its starting position except when it was really deep, something like inside their own 11 yard line, but that was when GB had an explosive offense. NFLgsis gives average starting position for the game, so that would be an easy stat for me to include. I think it is more complicated than that, but I usually mention if GB got the ball in field goal range or gave up the ball in field goal range and mention short fields. Short fields for a defense that is waiting for the opposing offense to make a mistake is an obvious contradiction/issue.
Leatherhead
December 05, 2022 at 11:30 am
You could just start at the 25, or you can try to return it. Let's say you get it to the 33. That's not a return of 33 yards, it's a return of 8 yards. And in order to get those 8 yards, you're risking a turnover, a penalty, and injuries.
Nixon has had some nice returns. He also returned one to the 20, so that cost us 5 yards. He also has muffed one already, which you have said is the same thing as losing a fumble (which it isn't, but you've said it was).
Even if we get a return to the 40, that's only a 15 yard return It's one Rodgers to Lazard completion.
T7Steve
December 05, 2022 at 01:13 pm
You make a good point. The downs must be from people that want one run to the house every game.
Coldworld
December 05, 2022 at 06:34 pm
Many fumbles happen on the catch. The myth is that the fair catch is foolproof. It also depends where the catch is taken. We’ve seen what a non return strategy results in here in prior years. A lot of very bad field position. Punters just try to pin you deep. This theory hasn’t been adopted because it’s exploitable and has been. We as team should be more cognizant if that than most.
jannesbjornson
December 05, 2022 at 03:43 pm
Three Phases of Football. Bisaccia has the return teams blockers lined up efficiently and Keesean can get to the spot in a hurry.
Leatherhead
December 05, 2022 at 11:31 am
I think ONE superduper is a real asset. I don't think we need to have 3 or 4 of them.
jannesbjornson
December 05, 2022 at 03:44 pm
Jerry Rice and John Taylor...Lynn Swann and John Stallworth...Max McGee and Boyd Dowler...
Coldworld
December 05, 2022 at 10:15 am
The thing that the route stats show is that essentially we operate on a one/two catcher O at the moment. Now one of those is a guy who has premium speed, but that speed aside, it just co firms the narrowness if the offensive vision and explains the apparent predictability to opposing Ds. It emphasizes that this D is ultra conservative really, with Watson’s athleticism the sole exception.
We continually refuse to spread the targets and thus the defenses attention. We barely used Toure again, we barely used anyone other than Lazard and Watson and fairly passively when we did. Watson and Rodgers weren’t in the same page in the longer stuff yesterday really. Fortunately, as in the Dallas game, we were consistently able to move the ball.
This is a very very limited O design plus Watson. I think it’s reflective of the same issues that saw Wyatt and Slaton get so little opportunities despite, again, looking better when they were out there. Did anyone notice how hard and fast Taylor hit that line in his 1 carry for 6 yards? It caught my eye and I wanted to see him get a few more.
But that’s not how a LaFleur team works it seems. Performance doesn’t translate into more opportunities. In other words we aren’t getting the best out if our roster or developing talent unless forced, on both sides of the ball. That’s just bad coaching for the short and long term. It’s not new, just look at Nixon on both D and STs and the OL. Those stats are quite revealing of the mindset of LaFleur and one insight into our struggles to play up to potential with this leadership on both sides of the ball.
Thegreatreynoldo
December 05, 2022 at 10:49 am
I remember going to practice last year (not this last August) and being impressed by Taylor. He was bigger and also faster than I expected. OTOH, he has been waived a couple of times this year and no one claimed him. True, almost no offensive snaps, and I don't really know whether he shines on STs or is just okay.
Coldworld
December 05, 2022 at 11:02 am
I make the point about Taylor simply because he unexpectedly caught my eye on one play and as a simple, identifiable (and rewatchable) illustration of the general point that good play doesn’t beget more opportunities in GB under this leadership. ultimately, it doesn’t matter how a player gets there, if they get results then good coaches see if they can do so again. We don’t. We rarely do the reverse either.
I think on STs Taylor is decent. He essentially plays a role typically undertaken by LBs. Not a star but a consistent performer. Then again, that role is not one that typically generates highlights.
croatpackfan
December 05, 2022 at 02:03 pm
I remember that Brian Gutekunst said in trainig camp that many will be surprised how good Taylor is. Now, the question is did BG made wrong assessment of player or coaching staff use him not properly. There is also the qustion do ACR have "trust" in Taylor.
Coldworld
December 05, 2022 at 06:55 pm
Taylor is supposedly a good pass protector. As for the rest, with this coaching staff it takes a miracle or protracted injury to get a chance if you aren’t a first choice from day one. There’s rather stuck with those cine hell or high water. RB is one if the few positions where that’s probably justifiable this year, to be fair.
jannesbjornson
December 05, 2022 at 04:57 pm
He and Gibson were a one-two punch @ Memphis. The so-called run theme never included him, it seems.
He would have been a better option at the goal line than Jones.
T7Steve
December 05, 2022 at 10:57 am
Don't you think they could immediately upgrade the look if they tried to use a tight end? I'm so jealous watching these TEs across the league make easy possession catches for 10 or 15 that open up more runs and the WRs. Now that the line is being more consistent, why aren't the using Deguara more if Tonyan isn't right? Even as an H back he'd open more options don't you think?
Coldworld
December 05, 2022 at 11:11 am
If you go back and rewatch, over the season, the amount of variety built into this O is minimal on 95% of the plays. One, maybe 2 weapons, limited personnel change and route diversity. At this point one could argue it’s the run game and the occasional throw deep to one guy plus Lazard. Watson has been the difference our passing O, not a change in approach from LaFleur. If anything Rodgers has simply decided that Watson’s rawness is outweighed by his providing the chance to at least make a positive play.
Thegreatreynoldo
December 05, 2022 at 11:11 am
IDK. Any ideas, anyone? Not too many games ago, Deguara seemed to be doing well and many expected him to start getting more snaps. However, he seems to be getting fewer and running fewer routes over the last couple of games. It could be matchups, I suppose.
Coldworld
December 05, 2022 at 11:16 am
Personnel group and general rigidity in passing concepts. Sticking with Cobb/Lazard plus Watson and using him to add to the running game but not varying the vanilla passing game outside of Watson being present. When younger players are in the field and not purely blocking, Rodgers has targeted them when open (I.e. Deguara/Toure). It’s just not very often and seemingly never as a first option or running an aggressive route.
stockholder
December 05, 2022 at 11:29 am
DeGuara = is ready to pick a fight with anyone. And if you look at pushing he's involved in, after the play.
The coaches might be playing it safe.
Coldworld
December 05, 2022 at 11:40 am
Yes, we don’t want any grit on this team, that would be unLaFleurian. As far as I recall he’s not been penalized for such things. If true, if he’s not getting penalized, the more playing time the better id say.
jannesbjornson
December 05, 2022 at 05:06 pm
Why repeat successful plays? The algorithm king in the upper deck must have failed the coursework.
jannesbjornson
December 05, 2022 at 03:49 pm
They could have drafted six of them from rd two to four last spring.
Leatherhead
December 05, 2022 at 01:56 pm
"This is a very very limited O design plus Watson"
And yet, it scores enough points for us to win, doesn't it? 28 yesterday, on the road. In fact, in weeks 10, 12, and 13, it has averaged over 30 ppg, with the one egg being the Titans game.
In the 9 games before that, Watson had only been targeted 14 times, mostly because of injuries. In the four games since he got healthy enough to play, he's been targeted 26 times.
We traded up to draft Watson because the plan was to have him be on the field, and now that he is, the offense is rolling. Despite an injured QB, despite a Day 3 rookie backup playing at LT.
I think the 1265 brass and the coaching staff deserve a lot of credit for finally getting the offense rolling the way it was intended to roll. We might have Lazard, Watson, and Toure on the field for the last 4 games. We could win out and finish 9-8, and that's a winning season. Despite everything.
jannesbjornson
December 05, 2022 at 04:29 pm
Well, they Valued Walker more than Watson and went into full panic mode to get him onboard because KC wouldn't trade with them to get back into the first round. The plan left them w/out a viable offensive line, absent Bhaktiari and a 100% Jenkins for the first quarter of this Season.
jannesbjornson
December 05, 2022 at 04:30 pm
Where were the safeties?
LambeauPlain
December 05, 2022 at 06:12 am
Beat a very bad 3-9 team and it seems about the only way to stop any opposing O with "Barry Ball" is with a turnover. Bares punted one time the entire game.
Even with two INTs, Fields passed for 20-25 and 254 yds and a 91 QBR and 71 yds rushing (Rodgers was 18-31, 182 yds and QBR of 52).
The second highest paid NFL defense hasn't been able to stop any team except for the T/O. Three and outs? Not with Barry Ball.
Leatherhead
December 05, 2022 at 10:01 am
So Fields completed 80% of his passes, for 10 yards/attempt, and had 71 rushing yards and a 91 QBR.
19 points. 19 points. 19 points. 19 points. 19 points.
Coldworld
December 05, 2022 at 10:59 am
3 TOs made a huge difference. Fields is not a consistently wise it accurate passer even with all day to throw, as he had yesterday, that showed up when he under threw the two interceptions and Alexander and Nixon read the plays. He was also throwing to guys who don’t normally play most of the time.
Im really struggling to see how you can read a defensive improvement into that game even allowing for 3 individual plays. I think it could just as well be seen as evidence that there’s more talent out there than we are consistently seeing. Then there the question of them going away from the run, QB and overall. That certainly improved our run D and likely helped our pass D by the late game.
We still gave Fields his most passing yards this season and 75 yards rushing for him and 150 or do overall. That’s against a team without their best WR and RB. I get you have an innate wish for this all to be rosy and to avoid the need to face up to personal failings. That’s very laudable in some ways, but not in a head coach, coordinator or football team management, generally, or as applied to our team and its current position.
I told you I wished you were right when you argued that this roster made sense in the off season and then for Amari as a source of improvement. I also told you why I suspected that wasn’t firm ground. I was myself more optimistic about Barry and this D with you. However, we’ve seen the systematic failings. It’s time to lose the sunshine and roses optimism as debunked comprehensively by performance. Repeating the mantra endlessly may feel better … until the results hit. That’s part of the problem within Lombardi Ave under Murphy, now and also during TTs decline. Look where that got us.
Leatherhead
December 05, 2022 at 12:32 pm
"Im really struggling to see how you can read a defensive improvement into that game "
We held them to 19 points. Only three other teams have held Chicago to 19 or less, and only one of them was at home. The Bears have scored 33 against New England, 32 against Miami, 30 against the Lions and 29 against the Cowboys.
How can you sit there and say "Bad defense"? We gave up a couple of big plays but otherwise, we had Chicago handled most of the day.
LambeauPlain
December 05, 2022 at 01:02 pm
"How can you sit there and say "Bad defense"?"
Um, because it was? Thanks goodness the Packers were playing one of the worst offenses in the NFL with a poor QB who still moved his team at will. But thank goodness that subpar QB bailed out the Packers with his telegraphed passing as the Pack was poised with 4 minutes left in the 4th to actually lose the game.
Leatherhead
December 05, 2022 at 01:58 pm
Holding a team, on the road, to 19 points is bad defense???
Maybe in your world. Not mine.
Chicago has scored over 30 several times this year. The Packers are one of the few teams to hold them to 19 or less, and we've done it twice. They scored 29 against Dallas in one game, and against us in two.
BTW, the Bears average 20.8 a game, as opposed to the Packers at 20.2, so the Packers are a weaker offense than the Bears. In fact, 11 teams are weaker than the Bears. In fact, if you take away the two Packer games, the Bears have scored 241 in 11 games....that's over 22 ppg, which would put them right around 16th in the league.
I know you're a fair minded guy, LP. The reality is that we did a good job on them yesterday and held them to 19 points.
PackyCheese500
December 05, 2022 at 07:41 pm
It should be 23, when you add the blocked PAT and blocked FG, fluke plays.
nygary
December 05, 2022 at 06:29 am
It's amazing to me that Barry uses mostly 2 DL over and over while teams run the ball down our throat. He needs to go for many other reasons but MLF doesn't seem quick to adjust to anything. I thought Tom played well for a rookie at LT. He looks like he's built more suited to play guard but seemed to play pretty well.
LambeauPlain
December 05, 2022 at 09:43 am
He has the feet, quickness, and balance to play on the LT island. Another year in the weight room will make him the heir there.
He and Jenks played very well on the left side.
Example: On a run play by AJD, Tom teamed up with Jenks at the snap to bulldoze the DT out of the run lane, then disengaged to his right in a flash to stop the pursuing defender as AJD ran for a first down. I don't recall Bakht ever doing such effective combination blocking.
Coldworld
December 05, 2022 at 11:23 am
He did well I thought. However, let’s be realistic. The Bears pose the least pass rush threat of any team in the league at this point. True validation wasn’t coming this week.
PackyCheese500
December 05, 2022 at 07:44 pm
Another thing I don't understand is why Wyatt and Slaton, our youngest DL who will likely be here for the future, are only receiving 9 snaps each when Lowry and Reed, veterans who will likely be gone next year, get 30+. Lowry and Reed aren't even that Good!
Give more snaps to the youngsters. Slaton has been nice, and we can't call Wyatt a bust until he can see consistent and substantial playing time. Just look at Christian Watson in the first 9 games when many (myself included) were calling him a bust. Now look at his last 4 games; he's breaking Packers records for most Rookie TDs and has more than Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson.
dobber
December 05, 2022 at 07:48 am
I think the note that big plays hurt this defense (again) is a key one. The Packers are still a top 10 team on defense as regards 3rd down conversions...but if opponents don't get to third down, it skews the numbers. As we go back through the season, on drives when the Packers surrender chunk plays, they surrender points...I don't think that's a reach.
Alexander must've really sloughed off on a snap, because he played 52 but only ended up at 99%.
I think the note that the offense has played better of late is a key one, too. This isn't a juggernaut, and the weak red-zone production of the team through the early parts of the season were crippling. With Gary, this is a defense that looks like it was formulated to be a front-runner. Without him, they couldn't even get a sack on one of the most-sacked QBs in the league (although they might've been playing more to contain than to rush). Whatever the case, they don't see another running QB this season, which should help some.
T7Steve
December 05, 2022 at 07:56 am
They all become running quarterbacks when they play the Packers, unfortunately.
LambeauPlain
December 05, 2022 at 09:48 am
The 3rd down ranking needs to be alongside the defenses ranking on giving up 1st downs on first and second down. Packers would probably lead that stat for futility.
What has the Packer D given up in the 2 minutes before half...60 points? Geez.
Leatherhead
December 05, 2022 at 10:11 am
dobber, we're very comparable to teams like the Eagles and Bills in regards to first downs. We've given up 254 in 13 games, the Bills and Eagles have given up fewer in 12 games, but the average of first downs/game is pretty close.
The big plays certainly mattered yesterday. One long run by Fields for a TD, one long pass over Alexander for a TD, one long pass against Alexander that set up a FG. That's all of the Bears scoring.
I do think the emphasis was on containing Fields, and not on sacking him. Other than those two long passes, he threw it 23 times for 150 yards....that's not incredible. And other than his one long run of 55 yards, the Bears had less than 100 yards on the ground.
Thegreatreynoldo
December 05, 2022 at 10:23 am
I am inclined not to edit that. After allowing bombs to ESB and Harry, I am not so sure it isn't fitting, though inaccurate. Sigh, I will edit that. [Done, but I was tempted to change it to 99.99%.]
Fields had the 56-yarder, though that lane looked narrow, he accelerated through it. On his other 5 carries, Fields gained just 15, and it seems to me one of those was 9 yards on a 2nd and 10. Still, one oopsies (which counts, of course) and otherwise a much better job. I do wonder how many first downs Fields picked up.
For those wondering, Jaire in his interview after the game described Equanimeous St. Brown as a scrub.
Coldworld
December 05, 2022 at 11:33 am
The throw to Harry was a very good catch to be fair, and a failed attempt to do what he succeeded in doing later. He still got the guy down. I can live with that. The first one to EQ, well that was perhaps him getting burned for underestimating, but he did get legitimately beaten.
jannesbjornson
December 05, 2022 at 05:16 pm
He was peeking at Fields, but no reason to misplace E quan. The shot to Harry was a perfect ball and it seemed to drift with the wind to the sideline. Jaire was close on his technique there and he didn't let them score.
Leatherhead
December 05, 2022 at 02:11 pm
Which means that Jaire Alexander, by his own admission, can't cover a scrub.
I've never understood that. Why denigrate your opponent? Better to say, "He put a real good move on me, and he's a big target and he beat me on that play." It doesn't make you seem any smaller.
Johnblood27
December 05, 2022 at 08:13 am
Toure had one reception for 7 yards, your chart says he didn't catch a ball.
signed - Momma Toure
Thanks for the quick turnaround TGR!
PackyCheese500
December 05, 2022 at 07:47 pm
So you are another Toure fan as well...I know Sammy Watkins did better on Sunday, but I don't understand how he gets snaps over Toure (I know Toure had more on Sunday, but I'm just talking in general), especially since this is likely a lost season and Watkins is likely gone next year. Toure even may be better than Watkins! in Toure's limited action, he's looked pretty darn good, with great route running and slipperiness.
Guam
December 05, 2022 at 08:25 am
I was surprised Wyatt only got 9 snaps since he did seem to play well when he was in there (saw him involved in several tackles). Wyatt's limited playing time might make sense if the D-line was playing well, but Lowery in particular has just not played well enough to keep anybody on the bench much less a first round draft choice. Hopefully that changes next year (and with a new DC).
Watkins only getting seven snaps, less than Toure's 12 snaps, just confirms he is not an answer at WR. He should be gone next year.
T7Steve
December 05, 2022 at 09:16 am
I think Watkins being here next year should be based on what Cobb does. If Cobb is done this year, they should keep Watkins for his vet presence in the WR room, his low wages, and his blocking down field. Plus, I think he'll make some surprise plays that will come up later and next year when he plays with Love.
murf7777
December 05, 2022 at 10:03 am
I don’t see it with Watkins, I think past injuries has sapped his ability to play WR in the NFL. There are other vets they could pick up if need be. I also think Cobb will play another year. The man still makes big plays when needed most.
Coldworld
December 05, 2022 at 11:52 am
Fulgham can block and probably is no worse as an offensive threat at this point. He’s a lot cheaper. If we had Doubs and would play Toure or let’s say had 3 receivers with a little more burst and speed, some of the need for blocking disappears due to the changes it requires of Ds and the location of the catches. We need blockers because of our limited route tree/predictability in part. That’s not true on the end around of course, but the need has been greater this year generally because if the short throw mentality.
jannesbjornson
December 05, 2022 at 05:30 pm
Get two more in the draft. Lazard will get Cobb&Watkins cash.
PackyCheese500
December 05, 2022 at 07:52 pm
I think we only draft 1 WR in the 2nd-3rd rounds and bring back Cobb for one more year. He would be incredibly cheap (probably on a one-year deal for around the veteran minimum, which is 1.12 mil) and would provide a good locker room presence and veteran mentor for the young'uns.
Thegreatreynoldo
December 05, 2022 at 10:29 am
Perhaps it should depend on what Lazard does? I WR who can teach WRs how to block, and all that. Probably depends on the draft as well. Next season, it will be Watson, Doubs, and probably Toure. GB has dede westbrook, winfree, Jeff Cotton, and Fulgham on the PS.
T7Steve
December 05, 2022 at 11:07 am
You two are probably right. I think with that many bodies in a room you need more than one vet. I was taking Lazzard as a given but, forgot this is his contract year. I thought it would be Cobb's last year because he let them strip his contract to bare minimum just to be able to stay in GB.
Leatherhead
December 05, 2022 at 11:34 am
I don't think Watkins or Cobb will be here next year.
6 WRs on the 53: Lazard, Watson, Doubs, Toure, will be the core. That's who we're going to throw the ball to.
Yesterday, 17 balls were thrown to the WRs. 12 to Lazard and Watson, 1 to Toure. When Doubs is available, he'll get those other targets. We simply don't need old, often-injured vets at that position.
PackyCheese500
December 05, 2022 at 07:55 pm
I don't see Lazard re-signing unless he were to accept a team-friendly deal; I think the Packers look to the draft for a replacement. A.T. Perry of Wake forest is an interesting prospect; his playing style is similar to Lazards; he thrives on contested catches, and is basically a clone physically of Lazard. Jonathan Mingo of Ole Miss is another one of my favorite prospects; he is a Deebo Samuel-type player who can be utilized on gadget plays often.
Here are the WRs I see on next year's roster:
Watson, Doubs, Toure, 2nd-3rd round 2023 rookie, Cobb, and Juwann Winfree.
PackyCheese500
December 05, 2022 at 07:54 pm
I would recommend they keep Cobb over Watkins for those exact same reasons you mentioned. Additionally, Cobb would be cheaper, likely getting paid somewhat near the veteran minimum of 1.12m
Thegreatreynoldo
December 05, 2022 at 11:02 am
I was trying to make a pointed comment when I mentioned that Chicago found 10 snaps to watch Alex Leatherwood play RT, even though they were down or lost the game. Wyatt, Slaton, McDuffie, Jean-Charles, and Taylor are guys I'd love to see. I don't know if Heflin just aren't ready, ditto for Rasheed and Caleb (mono probably knocks him out), but it would be nice to see a little of at least some of these players.
Rudy Ford, Leavitt, Nixon are all on one year deals. Maybe they will return cheap, but I suspect some other team will pony up a little more than will prove comfortable for these guys.
T7Steve
December 05, 2022 at 11:15 am
How come those guys all look like world beaters when they're on a prove it deal? Is it something sub-conscious? Otherwise, you'd think they could be coached up (if they had a real coach). Is that what separates them from the few Hall of Famers of the world?
Coldworld
December 05, 2022 at 07:05 pm
I’m not sure any look like world beaters. Ford is a guy who looked decent last year when he got the first chance at real D time. He looks like a guy who has matured in the league. He’s had downs too, but I’d pay him to be a 3rd S willingly and perhaps more. Leavitt is a pure STer. He’s probably got a market for that reason, but maybe mostly from Bisaccia.
Nixon is now a bona fide return option and in punts as well as kicks. Add that to a player who looks like he’s capable of being valid depth on D and he may have a market. I can see us managing to extend both him and Ford and Leavitt if we want to. He’s the most replaceable at this point. Nixon and Ford know they have a chance to play on D here and to establish themselves in the league. That has value in their position.
T7Steve
December 06, 2022 at 06:44 am
When I said "world beaters" I was thinking of last year's Douglass & Campbell, but these other guys weren't playing except on STs and practice squads. A new place and second chance makes all the difference. Just hope it carries over.
By the way, I think Douglass and Campbell have done as well as the defense and injuries have allowed. I'm glad that Walker is in there taking some of Campbell's tackles, even if it prevents him from getting All Pro.
PackyCheese500
December 08, 2022 at 01:13 pm
Douglas has been hot-and-cold. Did amazing in some games, like vs the Commanders, but got torched in others, like against the Eagles. Campbell has mostly been underwhelming as a run-stopper. Better in coverage
Leatherhead
December 05, 2022 at 02:12 pm
Guam, you are aware that Lowry is our highest rated defensive lineman, per PFF?
Guam
December 05, 2022 at 02:34 pm
I know, but my eyes tell me something different. He just gets moved off the LOS too often on running plays and generates little pass rush. Not sure what to make of the conflict between what I see and what PFF sees, but I am just not impressed by Lowery.
Coldworld
December 05, 2022 at 07:09 pm
PFF loves Lowry for his pressures. It undervalues the importance of stoutness in the run game. Lowry is a picture perfect example of a beneficiary.
If the eye test over years tells one thing, and a metric another, perhaps the metric is measuring the wrong thing.
Thegreatreynoldo
December 06, 2022 at 12:49 am
Well, the NFL passes 60+ percent of the time and runs 40% or sub 40%, so pressures by a DL probably "should" count more than stoutness. At least, one can make that argument.
I don't know if it is because I just entered my sixties, but I lean towards stopping the run as the highest priority. We all live in our own bubbles.
Leatherhead
December 08, 2022 at 12:39 pm
.....+but I lean towards stopping the run as the highest priority.
Why? A good RB gets 5 yards per carry, an average QB gets 7 yards per throw. Why would you want your opponent throwing instead of running?
Also, most scores in this league are the result of passing, not running.
I know it's counter-intuitive. I think the only time it's important to stop the run is 3rd and short and goal line. The rest of the time, not so much.
PackyCheese500
December 05, 2022 at 08:19 pm
I have sensed in recent years that the Packers like fast D-linemen rather than big D-linemen. Time to get some real heavyweights in there, particularly in the '23 draft!
BirdDogUni
December 05, 2022 at 02:57 pm
Probably a Viking fan doing the rating, to keep him on the team. SMH
HarryHodag
December 05, 2022 at 10:26 am
What is frustrating about this team, if you step back and take a longer view, is that there are times when they can compete and win against the best teams in the league. Then against some of the lesser teams in the league they get the stuffin's beat out of them.
It's no coincidence that the offense took off when Watson emerged from football hell and started playing at a top level. It made defenses pay attention to the home run ball, severely lacking before. It also shows the impact D. Adams had on the offense.
On defense they can get ripped to shreds or play solidly. They are so inconsistent. But it brings up a question: Justin Fields is a skilled ball carrier like Jalen Hurts. Fields started to gash the Packers like Hurts did then the Bears stopped him from running in the second half. Why? A question that might never be answered.
BirdDogUni
December 05, 2022 at 03:06 pm
Matchups and schemes would be my guess why the defense looks terrible one week and solid the next.
The Packers have routinely played down to their competition at times. (Drives me crazy.)
How can we destroy the Cowboys and then barely beat duh bares?
*Coaching.
PackyCheese500
December 05, 2022 at 07:50 pm
"Fields started to gash the Packers like Hurts did then the Bears stopped him from running in the second half. Why?"
It is simple: it is part of Luke Getsy's strategy as a branch of the MLF coaching tree; when you can run the ball well and your passing attack isn't great, under-utilize your rushers and start passing a lot! Am I wrong?
Thegreatreynoldo
December 06, 2022 at 01:02 am
PFF Grades:
TOP Offense/Defense:
Jenkins (83), Dillon (75), Watson (74), Lazard (72), Jones (72).
Wyatt (88), Nixon (83.5), Douglas (79), Slaton (77), Alexander (76.5).
Looks like Jenkins is rounding into his pre-injury form. Wyatt and Slaton only got 9 snaps each! Why? Nixon has been much better than expected. Alexander's grade is inexplicable.
BOTTOM offense/defense:
Cobb (48), Tonyan (48), Myers (53), Toure (54), Deguara (54).
Enagbare (36), Reed (44), Ford (49), Campbell (53.3), Garvin (55).
Myers continues to disappoint. I remember him bumping into Dillon on a pull. Cobb and Tonyan didn't have catches and don't do well in the run game.
Enagbare is a little surprising to me, but they are playing Hollins immediately for a reason. Reed plays like crap a lot and Slaton/Wyatt can't get on the field. Go figure. That sounds about right for Campbell - just seemed he made the routine plays but did nothing to stand out. 55 is who Garvin is, and that isn't terrible for a 7th round pick, I suppose.
T7Steve
December 06, 2022 at 10:00 am
I'm like you and CW and take these grades with a grain of salt.
Jenkins IS looking better, but hopefully he can keep progressing. The Bears D line makes for lots of high grades I bet. Wonder if they have rankings or comparisons for the competition?
No one on the Packers looked that good against the Eagles or the Titans. Even saw Dave B. get beat on one play and the next week was given a clean slate so they must have blamed someone else. It's all in what perspective they look at I guess.
Leatherhead
December 08, 2022 at 12:47 pm
"Myers continues to disappoint"
I would encourage people to remember that Myers and Jenkins are both returning from serious injuries this season, and it's entirely possible that they won't really be themselves until next season. Myers is still under contract for two more years, so we wouldn't want to give up on him at this juncture.
IMO, , for 2023, we should resign Jenkins and play him at center, we should resign Nijman, and play him at Left Tackle, we should play Tom at RT, and Runyan at LG. Myers, Newman, Rhyan, and Hanson could fight it out for RG. Walker and Mt. Caleb at backup tackles. And add some more talent in the draft.