Packers Should Covet Dalvin Tomlinson Over JJ Watt
If the Packers are going to sign a big-name free agent in 2021, they should target defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson.
JJ Watt is reportedly interested in signing with the Packers. A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about how Green Bay needs to find help for Kenny Clark upfront. Along with a 2021 draft pick, Watt could be that guy, or it could be someone like Dalvin Tomlinson. Before last year’s trade deadline, the Packers tried to make a deal for the New York Giants defensive tackle. If it were to come down to Tomlinson or Watt, it would be smarter to choose Tomlinson.
New York has expressed interest in resigning Tomlinson, but if he wants to test the market, the Packers could make another run at him. Rather than get a declining 31-year-old vet, they would get an ascending player that is much younger.
Health is another factor to consider. Watt has battled significant injuries in three of the last five seasons. Meanwhile, Tomlinson hasn’t missed a start in four years.
Obviously, when you compare the two, Tomlinson’s name doesn’t have the same aura. Watt is a household name and 3X Defensive Player of the Year, while Tomlinson is a good player on a bad team. However, Tomlinson can very much help this defense, perhaps even more than Watt.
After four seasons with the Giants, Tomlinson is having a very strong start to his career. When New York selected him in the second round in 2017, he immediately made an impact. He was one of the best run-stopping tackles not just in his draft class, but in the entire NFL as a rookie.
More recently, Tomlinson has continued to be a dominant run stopper and started to produce as a pass rusher. In the past two seasons, he’s totaled 7.0 sacks and 19 quarterback hits. This was after two seasons of having just 1.0 sack. Last season, Tomlinson recorded 3.5 sacks, 49 tackles, eight tackles for loss, and 10 QB hits. By comparison, Watt totaled 5.0 sacks, 52 tackles, 14 tackles for loss, and 17 QB hits.
Of course, when it comes time to put pen to paper, it will all come down to money. Green Bay will have to make some tough decisions and cut more players to even think about signing Tomlinson or Watt.
There’s a hopeful feeling that Watt would take a hometown discount to come to Green Bay. In reality, we don’t know that to be the case, and perspective tells us this could be Watt’s last chance to receive a decent contract. He’ll be 32 in March and could be eyeing retirement once his next contract is up.
On the other hand, Tomlinson is just now coming into his own. He’s about to turn 27, and over the last two years, benefited from learning and playing alongside Leonard Williams. Playing next to Clark would continue to sharpen Tomlinson’s tools.
It would have been much more feasible to acquire Tomlinson in 2020 when he was still playing on his rookie contract. Perhaps, they would have had a better shot at re-signing him. This offseason will be Tomlinson’s first chance to cash out, so there’s a good chance he gets paid a lot of money.
Spotrac predicts Tomlinson’s market value is somewhere around four years, $45,873,412 or $11,468,353 per year. Watt was reportedly been offered in the ballpark of 15-16 million per year, meaning his market is very strong. Therefore, the idea of landing Watt on a cheaper deal is not necessarily the case.
Lastly, there’s also a difference in how Watt or Tomlinson would be implemented. At this stage in his career, Watt might be ready to transition to more of a rotational role. Assuming the Packers release Preston Smith, they still have Za’Darius Smith and Rashan Gary playing Watt’s natural position on the edge. Fans clamoring for more Watt next season would then have to sacrifice reps for Gary. Watt could kick inside on occasion, but it’s a better fit for Clark or Tomlinson to play the nose tackle or three-tech defensive end.
When you factor in everything from money, health, age, and projection in the defense, the answer is clear. Green Bay going all-in on a defensive lineman in free agency would make more sense if it were for Tomlinson instead of Watt.
Brandon Carwile is a Packers writer who also enjoys watching and breaking down film. Follow him on Twitter @PackerScribe.
Comments (56)
CoachDino
February 26, 2021 at 03:21 pm
Kinda a mute point, there's zero interest in either one at those prices. Plus apples to oranges, in a way. I agree younger ascending is better than older descending but Watt's not looking at 4 year deals but closer to 2 year deals. Plus can we finally get away from "run stuffing" d'lineman? I "somewhat" fell into that trap myself, thinking that's what was needed. The facts proved me wrong. It is a fact that the packers defense, down the stretch, did a good job defending the run against some very good run teams. It had nothing to do with "run stuffing" lineman. IMO it had more to do with KC getting healthy, Z and others being disciplined and the overall commitment to gang tackling.
I'm not here to argue KC gets all the attention due to not having better 3 and 5 tech guys with him. But what's wrong with him getting the double teams? The problem is the other guys need to them make plays.
The Packers need Watt more because he is a run stuffer and Pass rusher. That is the whole key.
It was an inconsistent pass rush that doomed the Packers not run defense.
I'm all for upgrading the Dline and do see it making a difference if they do. 1st is Outside and slot CB obviously, certainly as far as FA are concerned.
Barmore is tops on my list for Dline after that Alim McNeill. A Healthy Keke will help. Then add another pass rusher. Gary and Z are a great combo but one more Pass Rush specialist from the edge would be great.
Watt brings those traits. Tomlinson not so much. Both would help no doubt, neither would be a prudent way to spend limited resources. Who knows what is going to happen but the real story is all about getting under the cap so to best position this team to resign JA ,DA and maybe AR.
PhantomII
February 26, 2021 at 04:40 pm
Clark having 2 fatties laying on his back is what has been getting the highest paid defensive player on the team hurt. Clark is in need of another DL who has burst and is a run stopper/ pass rusher up the gut like him. With Z and Gary at the OLB position doing their job.
flackcatcher
February 26, 2021 at 04:49 pm
Any movement in free agency totally depends upon the Cap, both how low the floor is, and how high the ceiling is. Otherwise, and I hate to say this, the Packers will not make any moves in free agency, preferring to use what little Cap they have to sign their own for this season. Frankly it would not surprise if they resigned King to a 2 year and option. He's a starter in a league where good CB are tough to had year to year. Beyond that, until the draft don't expect the Packers to make any moves. Till they know who they can see on this year's roster, then they might (maybe?) sign some FA.
Guam
February 26, 2021 at 05:37 pm
I know there are lots of fans who would prefer dumping King, but I second your idea of resigning him on a manageable contract. He is inconsistent, but still has some skills and had some good games. He is not a throw away despite the NFCCG.
blacke00
February 27, 2021 at 07:22 am
I hate to say it but I agree
jannesbjornson
February 26, 2021 at 06:16 pm
If you're looking at the Giants D, I would rather move on Leonard Williams.
canadapacker
February 26, 2021 at 06:26 pm
I disagree Coach Dino - but first a little bit of terminology - Dont use mute - it is what you hit on your cell phone. The correct word is MOOT- A moot point is a fact that doesn't matter because it's not relevant to the current situation. There is no such phrase as mute point.
And I think it is relevant - We need somebody so that they cant double or triple or whatever - wear down Clark. The problem with Smith is that they were running around him and inside him and the other guys there werent stopping up those gaps. So having a guy and if it is Tomlinson - it would make a heck of a difference especially if Gary keeps progressing on that side with Z on the other side. So I kind of agree on spending more cash on a Dline man and getting some draft picks and kids that can play fast as LInebackers and cover tight ends and rush the odd time in the middle of the D
scoonie_penn
February 27, 2021 at 05:22 am
oh contraire, the "mute' is silent in that sentence. *LOL*
MarkinMadison
February 26, 2021 at 03:40 pm
There is no way that anyone should be paying Watt $15M/year at this stage in his career. I can't even wrap my head around the Packers giving him anywhere near that number given their cap situation. If they do it they are just plain wrong.
Tomlinson at $11M/yr is more reasonable and more manageable. I'm still not sure that it would be the right choice.
I'm sorry, but I'm a lawyer. The phrase is "moot point." Moot, meaning, "of little or no practical relevance." When people say "mute point" it drives me up a wall.
flackcatcher
February 26, 2021 at 04:56 pm
HA! Talk to my in-house counsel. All the darn time. I finally 'counseled' him in private with my trusty nerf 'cluebat'. Drove me nuts...
MarkinMadison
February 26, 2021 at 06:50 pm
Report him to the board of bar examiners.
egbertsouse
February 27, 2021 at 06:48 am
I took the bar exam once. I failed the Bahama Mama.
PeteK
February 26, 2021 at 06:14 pm
In actuality ,mute makes more sense as moot is an archaic Anglo Saxon word for meeting.
MarkinMadison
February 26, 2021 at 06:40 pm
https://www.dictionary.com/e/moot-point-vs-mute-point/
Coldworld
February 27, 2021 at 07:37 am
While this forum could be a rather informal Packermoot in your usage, moot also means debatable to the point where it can’t be relied upon (noun) or, as used here, something rendered merely hypothetical by subsequent happenings.
mrtundra
February 27, 2021 at 07:59 am
Moot works when meeting with Ents, too!
egbertsouse
February 27, 2021 at 06:45 am
I’m mooting this discussion if I can find the moot button.
Since'61
February 26, 2021 at 03:45 pm
If the Packers could afford Tomlinson, that would be a much better move than signing Watt. Tomlinson is a better player with more upside than Watt at this point in their respective careers.
Regrettably I doubt that the Packers can afford either player at this time. Thanks, Since ‘61
Demon
February 26, 2021 at 05:17 pm
Hard pass on Tomlinson!! Run stopping DL can be found in the draft in most rounds. 11+ mil a year too much for someone like that. Better off with a low cost rookie.
PBacker
February 26, 2021 at 04:35 pm
It’s my opinion GB should draft the best of WR or DT with their 1st two selections. That way they’ve got a cheap rookie deal and they can have a legit chance at resigning proven players already on the team. The Center and ILB position with good upside can be found rounds 3-5, where the Packers are projected to have 5 selections. Watt is very good, but his injury history concerns me. He’d have to work with us and maybe sign a lesser base of 10-12mil annual with some playoff incentives up to another 1-2 mil season. If he doesn’t provide a push in the playoffs, then I’m not interested in regular season stats. I think we’d be better spending pick #29 plus a day 3 selection to move up if needed
Guam
February 26, 2021 at 05:42 pm
I just don't see the need for an early draft choice WR given other needs. The Packers had the #1 offense in the league and they will be adding Funchess. There just aren't enough snaps for WRs in MLF's offense to warrant Adams, MVS, Lazard, Funchess, ESB and another high draft choice. DT, CB, and ILB would be my preference.
jannesbjornson
February 26, 2021 at 06:11 pm
St.Brown probably gets cut.
Guam
February 26, 2021 at 10:18 pm
Agreed, but the point still stands - the high draft pick is fighting Adams, Funchess, MVS and Lazard for playing time. How much help would the guy really be?
jannesbjornson
February 27, 2021 at 05:20 am
The first round should focus on CB or OT. If Barmore is around late first round maybe you consider him. I would jump on Zaven Collins, but he will go mid-round. They need to hit on a blue chip player. The WR can be bagged in round three.
Coldworld
February 27, 2021 at 07:39 am
Can’t really see why: no savings. He is no lock to make the roster, but I can’t see why they wouldn’t take him into camp.
Oppy
February 28, 2021 at 10:27 pm
I agree completely.
The Packers are looking to shed costly contracts on aging players / journeymen who don't have much more upside, not young players on rookie contracts who have room to grow.
Those are the players the Packers will have to rely on more and more with the salary cap narrowing and Rodgers contract hanging over their heads.
canadapacker
February 26, 2021 at 07:54 pm
Totally agree unless the guy can also return kicks. That has been an achilles heel of the ST. We need a young guy who can run and will not drop the ball. Now - not saying that it should be anywhere in the first 3 rounds unless it is a comp pick - what did we get for Martinez anyway?
Guam
February 26, 2021 at 10:15 pm
I don't think the official picks have been announced, but those who track this stuff seem to think the Packers will get a 4th, 5th and 6th for Bulaga, Martinez and Fackrell. We will soon see......
PhantomII
February 28, 2021 at 05:12 pm
None of those WR's but Adams would be starting most teams except at #4 WR position. That is the difference.
TXCHEESE
February 26, 2021 at 04:36 pm
Agree with Demon. You can put all draft eligible DL from OSU, Clemson, Florida, Auburn and Bama on a dart board, close you eyes and whoever you hit would be a better option than throwing that kind of money at FA's. Just need some bodies to assist, not be the stars. Hopefully Adams and Keke can get healthy and contribute, as they both flashed some this year when healthy.
PF4L
February 27, 2021 at 10:18 am
I don't know if i agree with Brandon Carwile, but i'll say this....
It's refreshing reading someone who writes with a voice of reason.
IMO..the Packers would really have some work to do, and like someone a lot to pay a free agent 8-10 + million.
If....they did that, i'd rather see them spend that on a proven corner.
.
Stopping the run in the NFCCG wasn't necessarily a problem.
We all know.....what the problem was.
.
Plus...grabbing a corner takes a need and burden off the draft.
PBacker
February 26, 2021 at 05:09 pm
I’d love another shutdown CB round 1. I think people will be surprised at what Keke can offer when he’s healthy. He played hurt a lot and he was just starting to show consistency verses flashes. Get a good solid CB, then go after best of WR or ILB day 2
jannesbjornson
February 26, 2021 at 06:14 pm
Right, for the money a FreeAgent CB would fit the plug and play and draft another CB in the third.
Lphill
February 26, 2021 at 04:58 pm
Watt would take less to sign with the Packers .
PBacker
February 26, 2021 at 05:22 pm
Maybe. But not if he’s anywhere near 15mil+ annual. GB would be a player at $11mil /yr. plus incentives if he plays in a Championship match. I’d rather go after a stellar ILB and a CB to replace King. We have opportunities to double down at DL rounds 4-5 and get 1 keeper
Watt has too many injury concerns. I’m not interested in hoping on him playing at back breaking $. 15mil gets you several Solid Veterans upgrades at DL AND LB or CB. If those don’t work out get a DT at #29 or trade up if needed
13TimeChamps
February 26, 2021 at 06:00 pm
"Watt would take less to sign with the Packers ."
Did he call you and tell you that personally?
Alberta_Packer
February 26, 2021 at 06:13 pm
Why not sign both? Just cut Dean Lowry and Preston Smith - apply added cap space to Tomlinson and Watt (along with some other salary re-structuring) and voila! - Watt and Tomlinson instead of Lowry and Smith! However Watt is not a 15m per year player anymore (maybe half) - as the greatest of race horses eventually fade in the stretch.
PackEyedOptimist
February 26, 2021 at 06:18 pm
I'm starting to get a feel for how Gute works. He has shown that he likes to cover all of the weak spots on the roster with "someone potentially decent" BEFORE the draft. So, I expect him to pick up some free agents for CB, DL, and OT, and probably RB. Maybe a P and WR too. Then, during the draft, he can go for "BPA who you believe will improve your roster," which is ALWAYS the best approach. With this weird year, I have little in the way of strong feelings about most of the draft-eligible players, but I do see a LOT of really interesting scatback types who will go in the 2-4th rounds I think. Who the BPA will be at 29 is a total crapshoot of a guess this year. I'm hoping it's a DT or OT, but I'm predicting it will be a CB or S/LB type. We'll see.
stockholder
February 27, 2021 at 07:46 am
I'm expecting a WR, CB, C. Moore, Newsome, Myers ///// But here are my choices. I would draft Najee Harris to replace Jones. Next Would draft = Terrace Marshall WR. ( In fact Marshall is a better choice then Moore.) and Finally I would take Little OT. Yes thats offense. But Gute is in denial about the DL. And with all the Time King missed. We survived.
jannesbjornson
February 27, 2021 at 05:27 am
Newsome would have to be snagged in the low first round, as I said before move into the first for two picks. I don't know how Moore's body holds up. He's not a Tyreek Hill type.
stockholder
February 27, 2021 at 06:48 am
Newsome is a reach in one. Moore is ridicules. If Gute stays to form. A 1 and 4 for ( A. Samuel.) ( Before this is all said and done.) But Really, "They still can't pay anybody" . Lowrey can't Tackle. And Ke Ke is to light. With Concussions. Yet Gute is trying to still get sleepers for that position. If you want a Arron Donald. They must pay for one, or draft one.
Coldworld
February 27, 2021 at 07:47 am
Wondering if this year will be different though, could be cap pushes him to wait and be more active in summer to fill holes.
jannesbjornson
February 27, 2021 at 02:24 pm
Need to set the team by June camps. Get this show tuned for the Big Game, nobody cares about the sledding hill revenues.
Starrbrite
February 26, 2021 at 09:00 pm
The Packers can afford anyone they are willing to pay. It's a matter of moving money around...teams do it every year. Many here are so concerned about the future, but guess what, a great future isn't promised no matter what course you pursue. Former Rams and Redskin coach, George Allen was quoted as saying, "The Future Is Now." Allen was fired by then Redskins owner after a few season's and the Billionaire owner (can't recall his name), was quoted as saying, "George was given and unlimited budget and he exceeded it". We don't have an unlimited budget, but I do believe "the future is now." I'm in Colin Cowherd's camp, "it's time to take the kids on a vacation we can't afford". Maybe it works, maybe it doesn't. Whether it's Watt, Tomlinson, et al., let's make a run! Vic Ketchem was fond of saying Packer fans are winsome; I agree. we're always sooo nice.....sooo worried/fearful. No Fear --- lets' make a run....we'll worry about 2022 and three, and four whey they happen.
jannesbjornson
February 27, 2021 at 05:31 am
They have not been in the big game in ten years and their MVP is getting older. The pressure is on Gutedkunst to hit it this draft and get a couple key contributors in free agency. Veteran depth and smarter players.
stockholder
February 26, 2021 at 10:18 pm
The Packers won't sign either. No Money. And after seeing the list of players they've had virtual meetings with. We are in trouble. My Blood sugar is over loading. I wonder if this Front office understands anything?
Fabio
February 27, 2021 at 04:36 am
I think helping Clark is a good idea, but not essential. Last season we had a good performance despite everything and, if we look at the games with Tampa, let's remember that the Tampa protection line was really really good and Brady was protected all year against all defenses. (maybe we should pay attention too ??). However if we have to spend a lot of money on FA I think it would be better in CB or ILB (in order of necessity)
Greetings from Italy
GPG
Thegreatreynoldo
February 27, 2021 at 05:17 am
Very well thought out article. Tomlinson is young (and healthy) enough to give a backloaded contract to, so if he is really $11M AAV his first-year cap number could be around $6M to $7M without nasty-looking numbers for 2022 to 2024. I'd be hesitant to give Watt more than 3 years and would be figuring on getting two years out of him. He is far more a pay-as-you-go player for me.
Tomlinson is similar to Kenny Clark. His pass rush for an NT is just fine. His run stopping is very good. Tomlinson is more of an NT/DT, rather than a DE. Watt brings more pass rush, that is fair to say.
Clark: 12 pressures, 2.0 sacks, 6 QB hits, 42 tackles, 73.8 PFF grade.
Toml: 15 pressures, 3.5 sacks, 10 QB hits, 49 tackles, 75.1 PFF grade
Watt: 29 pressures, 5.0 sacks, 17 QB hits, 52 tackles, 85.4 PFF grade
Clark has had better years (really his last good year was 2018) so he wasn't worth his contract last year. He was paid as being elite and GB got good play.
Watt is better than Tomlinson, but they are also different players who do different things. Tomlinson has been extremely consistent over his 4-year career.
Cheesey51
February 27, 2021 at 06:34 am
Well written. Having a second run stopper can make KC an elite player look at what Tomlianson did. For NY last year and their other DT. I'd prefer not to have an injury plagued player with elite 3 time Defense MVP Watt and pay the money for an ascending player like Tomlianson who has no injury history.
Also, Packers have been consistent in finding rotating IDL in the later rounds not elite .Shoring up the IDL allows the packers to take a CB in the first round or ILB
Coldworld
February 27, 2021 at 07:57 am
Not watched Tomlinson closely, but I agree that a DT who is not merely a runstuffer next to Clark would potentially radically improve this D if that player is also good against the run. KeKe is more of a penetrative type. We can pick up a pure run-stopping specialist much later or cheaper, but that isn’t a game changer.
Your point about Watt being a different type of player is critical in my view. We already have players who project in his type of role. It’s about what makes the team get better most. A second Clark type would do more in my view.
Stroh
February 28, 2021 at 04:37 pm
That pass rusher next to Clark would be Watt. He can play the position that Aaron Donald plays. A 3 tech mostly but can move him all over the DL. Watt would be great in that role! He's not just an edge rush guy. And at this point in his career, probably would be better rushing inside instead of on the edge all the time.
SarahEmi45
February 27, 2021 at 05:54 am
Well done! Man
mrtundra
February 27, 2021 at 08:06 am
I don't think we will see either Watt or Tomlinson in Green and Gold. I look to the draft and see a guy like DT Christian Barmore, from Alabama, having a better chance to become a Packer, than either Watt or Tomlinson. That is, if Gute picks him in the 1st Round. He will be gone, before our 2nd Round pick, unless Gute moves down the board and gets us an early 2nd Round pick in addition to our regular pick, near the bottom of the 2nd Round.
PhantomII
February 27, 2021 at 02:21 pm
If Gute uses his 1st RD and moves up 10 spots, ........Maybe.
Stroh
February 28, 2021 at 04:32 pm
If the Packers are implementing a defensive system similar to the Rams, where Aaron Donald starred moving around the DL and primarily playing as a 3 tech DL, that is right up Watt's alley. He would not take snaps from Z Smith or Gary and would slide in next to Clark as DL and play primarily as a 3 tech, just like Donald. Too many people look at Watt as simply an edge rusher and he's been very good in that role at his best. But a 31 yr old Watt in not at his best or won't be for long. It would also give the Packers 3 rushers who can be moved all over, from edge to rushing inside. Watt would benefit by having other pass rushers around him so he isn't getting the brunt of double teams, like he did in Houston where he was doubled at the highest rate in the NFL last year. Z Smith was #2 in that regard.
Tomlinson while very good at what he does is mostly a run stuffer and garnered his sack while being single blocked, while Watt got his being the most double blocked NFL player. You'll forgive me for not being impressed by his pass rush ability. Tomlinson would likely supplant Clark as the NT, which is basically what he was next to Leonard Williams and allow Clark to play more of the Donald role. However, Clark while terrific doesn't have the explosive element to his game in nearly the way Donald does.
The question comes down to what you want. A better run D, or the more important pass rush ability of Watt?! There is a reason pass rushers earn alot more than run stuffers. They simply affect the outcome of game much more than run stuffing DT do. Either way makes the Packers better, but which one would help provide the lift and leadership to the Packers? That is Watt, not Tomlinson!
The Packers are in a salary cap conundrum, but they have the wherewithal to afford either. I see Watt as becoming the Defense's Leader (in the Reggie White mold) and I see him being very successful playing the Aaron Donald role, I lean toward Watt even if they have to push more into future years to make it happen. The Packers are in a window for the remainder of Rodgers years in GB. Get Watt! He will help you win more than a run stuffer will.
tchicomen
March 03, 2021 at 04:35 pm
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