Packers Playoff Run Starts in December

Packers Head Coach Matt LaFleur celebrates after last year's win at the Minnesota Vikings. His teams are 21-4 in the regular season in games played in December and January.

Matt LaFleur’s Green Bay Packers teams have all but owned December football since he became the Packers head man in 2019. In five-plus years as the Packers head coach, LaFleur has now had winning seasons in five out of six years (2022 only losing season at 8-9) and his regular-season record after December 1 is an impressive 21-4.

The success from LaFleur and the Packers includes undefeated 5-0 runs to end both 2019 and 2020. They lost the season finales in both 2021 and 2022 after going 4-0 in December. The only season with multiple losses in the last five weeks of the season was last year, with back-to-back December losses against the Giants and Bucs.

 

Last year’s win over the Lions on Thanksgiving was a springboard to the Packers playing well in December, including a win over the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs.

 

 

Playing its best football late in the season is nothing new in Green Bay. This dates back to the days of Mike Holmgren and Brett Favre. From 1993-1998, the Packers had six straight playoff appearances and were 3-1 or 4-0 in December in five of those six seasons. Those teams made five divisional playoff appearances, three NFC Championship games, two Super Bowls and the Super Bowl win in 1996.

This success late in seasons was also on display under both Mike Sherman and Mike McCarthy. In the 13 seasons that ended in postseason berths: (Sherman 2001-2004, McCarthy 2007, 2009-2016), only three times did the Packers lose multiple games after December. Those seasons were: 2004 (2-3), 2010 (3-2), and 2015 (3-2).

Based on the team’s history the last 32 years, how the team plays in December is generally an indicator of the success come playoff time. The one exception to that rule is 2010, where the team had back-to-back December losses after Aaron Rodgers was injured.

McCarthy’s teams made four NFC Championship games, and two came after winning a road playoff game (2010 and 2016). It was in 2016, where the Packers won their last six regular-season games, including five straight after December 1.

Last year the Packers won 29-22 on Thanksgiving at the Lions, as Jordan Love threw three touchdown passes, one each to Jayden Reed, Tucker Kraft and Christian Watson.

 

 

This year’s Packers are 3-0 coming off their bye last month, but the December and January schedule will be very challenging. The team will travel to three of the tougher road environments in the NFC: December 5 at Detroit, December 15 at Seattle, and December 29 at Minnesota.

All three teams are in the current NFC playoff standings, but all three teams have also lost at home this season. The Lions lost to the Bucs in Week 2, the Vikings lost to the Lions in Week 7 and the Seahawks are just 3-4 at home, including four straight home losses.

Going into Week 14, the Packers are a likely wild card team for the NFL postseason, but a strong showing in these next five games will be a big determining factor in if this team will go far in January, or if its playoff visit will be a short one.

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Mitch McLaughlin is a Packers fan and shareholder residing in Sacramento, California. He will be writing Packers stories each week on Cheesehead TV. He can be found on Twitter: @McLaughlinMitch

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Comments (9)

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Leatherhead's picture

December 03, 2024 at 07:20 pm

That 82% winning percentage after Thanksgiving....aka the Stretch Run.....isn't mentioned enough. It's pretty exceptional.

If we win 4 out of our last 5, we'd finish the season 13-4 and make the playoffs.

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Cheezehead72's picture

December 04, 2024 at 05:59 am

If they win tomorrow they have greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs. Right now they sit at 97%. They should be able to win at least 2 of these last 5. I am going to say that they can win out. If they win out they could get the division championship.

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egbertsouse's picture

December 03, 2024 at 08:38 pm

The Packers finished with a 8-9 record in 2022. That constitutes a losing record contrary to your assertion that LaFleur has never had a losing season.

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T7Steve's picture

December 04, 2024 at 07:33 am

I knew someone would bring that up. I think everyone discounts the last season of the new Jets QB. At least we try to forget about it.

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Mitch McLaughlin's picture

December 04, 2024 at 12:24 pm

I fixed it in the story. For some reason I thought the loss to the Lions left the Packers at 9-8. Forgot team was 4-8, won 4 straight and lost the game to fall to 8-9.

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GB@Germany's picture

December 04, 2024 at 12:40 am

Here my 3 cents
First these statistics have absolutely no bearing for the outcome of the next game.
Second there is quite some correlation between contending teams and eliminated teams playing each other, which mostly takes place in December.
Third: especially this years run heavy playcalling is made for cold weather football. Unfortunately Thursday night is played in a dome...
Anyhow, as long as they beat the Lions, I'm fine.

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T7Steve's picture

December 04, 2024 at 07:35 am

I think our O plays fast and well on fake grass. Just keep fingers crossed that there're no injuries.

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TXCHEESE's picture

December 04, 2024 at 08:41 am

Agreed. Although we have run the ball effectively this season, the offense can pitch and catch as well as any team.
I also believe the dome helps our DL. Their get off and push should be much more effective and should allow for penetration and pressure on Goff.

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beerandbrats's picture

December 04, 2024 at 12:44 pm

December football is the most wonderful time of the year! Go Pack Go!

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