Pack-A-Day Podcast - Episode 2747 - Does Brian Gutekunst Draft Better Than the Consensus?!
On today's show, Andy runs through each of Brian Gutekunst's drafts as General Manager and puts his picks up against the consensus big board at the time to see if Gutey actually outperformed the consensus draft board. Find out the results, today!
By AndyHerman
On today's show, Andy runs through each of Brian Gutekunst's drafts as General Manager and puts his picks up against the consensus big board at the time to see if Gutey actually outperformed the consensus draft board. Find out the results, today!
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Andy is a graduate of UW-Oshkosh and owns & operates the Pack-A-Day Podcast. Andy has taken multiple courses in NFL scouting and is an Editor for Packer Report. Andy grew up in Green Bay and is a lifelong season ticket holder - follow him on Twitter @AndyHermanNFL!
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Comments (21)
stockholder
February 01, 2026 at 08:38 am
Espn rated per draft history.
2018. #18 Alexander. RK #2.... OVR RK #17..... @17 James #7 My preference
2019 #13. Gary. “ “ #2..... “ “ 13..... Burns #14. OLB. "
2019 #21 Savage “ “ #2..... “ “ 28.... Sweat #22. DE. "
2020 #26. Love. “ “ #3.... “ “ 20..... Higgins #30 Help #12 "
2021 #29 Stokes. “ “ #10..... “ “ 71...... Barmore #30 Help Clark. "
2022 #22 Q.Walker. “ “ #3.... “ “ 31..... Lloyd #20 ILB. "
2022 #28. D.Wyatt. “ “ #2..... “ “ 23..... Watson #39 "
2023. #13. VanEss. “ “ #2.... “ “ 15..... González. #8 Stokes failed
2024. #25. Morgan. “ “ #8.... “ “ 40..... DeJean #19. "
2025. #23 Golden. “ “ #2.... “ “ 23...... J. Campbell #19. ILB "
The obvious is when Gute reached-- he failed badly.
And after Alexander. The secondary was terrible.
He fills a hole while making another now..
Relying on Free Agents.
Truth- Love might turn out to be his best pick
regardless of Rodgers and No Trophy
jannesbjornson
February 01, 2026 at 11:15 am
Love is the only reason he still has a job. The level of talent left on the board when he snagged the hockey player, many now All PROs, should have been the last straw.
the_gavia_pass
February 01, 2026 at 11:45 am
love was the biggest mistake in packers history.
from real talent to all the communication staff and the strategic side of the pick, that Is with no doubt a fire immeditely mistake. and we are paying and we will pay for years and years for that mistake.
PackerBackerAZ
February 01, 2026 at 12:43 pm
Not even close to being the worst. See Tony Mandarich Round 1 Pick 2, DE Jamal Reynolds Round 1 Pick 10 and DT Justin Harrell Round 1 Pick 16 for the worst.
the_gavia_pass
February 01, 2026 at 03:18 pm
the love pick Is much worse because they thought Rodgers was done and did not draft a WR o a LB that we needed badly to go to SB. Rodgers not only was not done but won 2 MVPs. then they panicked so they signed Rodgers to a terrible contract and ended up losing lots of millions. so that was a really big mistake so big that It Is shocking gutey still Is our GM.
Since'75
February 04, 2026 at 03:47 pm
I think the jist of this was the Packers were on the doorstep to the SB (losing in the NFCCG)
and Gute decided no...we're going to draft for the future, hence Love.
I said it in 2020, and i'll say it again, when Love was drafted, most of us were like....WHAT?
We all expected a wr in that receiver rich draft.
Then....Rodgers said..trade me.
Which the Packers should have done and got a kings ransom.
I believe the reason they did it, is because they know Love wasn't going to show well, he needed development
So...what did Rodgers do, he lit up the Packers, being MVP, not once, but twice, forcing Gutes hand to keep him around.
End of story.
golfpacker61
February 01, 2026 at 10:15 am
One of my biggest problems with how teams choose to draft is the idea of just draft "The BPA." It doesn't fit many teams, not even the best teams on a yearly basis. I am a 100% firm believer that you should fill your biggest needs first, especially with Day 1 and Day 2 picks because the Top 100 or so players are the best in the draft every year.
I would be curious to see what our biggest team needs were in each of these drafts, and how we did or didn't address them that year. If we didn't, was that the biggest need again the next year. That's what happened last year, leading to the black hole problem we have at CB.
Since we have a decent record almost every year, we usually pick in the back 3rd of each round, basically a next round pick. Usually we are hoping to see if a player falls to us, similar to last year picking at #22. While I am totally against drafting BPA while ignoring biggest need, I am totally fine with trading back for more picks. While we might not get one of the Top 5 players at position of need, we set ourselves up to get the best of the next 5 at that position. Plus we gain extra premium picks to address all the needs. It always depends on finding a trade partner, but somone always wants to trade back ino the first round. Does it really make that much difference to be picking @ #22 or #32 or #42?
PackerBackerAZ
February 01, 2026 at 12:37 pm
Picking 22 or 202 only makes a difference if you can see football talent and mentality in players. You or I could take the highest ras player at a position of need, but can we pick a player with talent that has a football mentality? That's what differentiates between a bad gm and a good gm. Since I don't consider Gutekunst a gm, substitute player procurement officer instead.
dobber
February 01, 2026 at 01:31 pm
The issue with BPA is, "BPA according to whom?" We tend to look at the "right now" and starters in assessing needs, but the GM is looking at contracts, depth charts, who's going to walk next off-season, whose contract is becoming untenable. Yes! Need always tempers BPA! We can dream up lots of scenarios where the highest rated player on your board would be a piss-poor choice for your team getting stronger.
People go after the RAS thing with Gute, too, but it's been pretty clear that's not his only driving factor. YES, athleticism is a key thing. As they used to say there are only so many huge bodies that can play in the draft. Likewise, there are only so many elite athletes in the draft and those guys naturally tend to be higher ceiling guys. We aren't quite to the Al Davis, "Speed Kills" mantra, yet, but we look at a guy like Isaiah McDuffie who plays hard and tackles and we lament his lack of athleticism.
Fully expecting a bunch of tradebacks from Gute this year. Moving down 5 spots in round 2 gets an extra 4th and likely doesn't show a huge drop in player quality. Even moving down 5 spots in round 3 nets a 5th. People piss on Gute's ability to draft in round 1, but most agree he's done well on day 3.
Thegreatreynoldo
February 02, 2026 at 01:37 am
I strongly believe in tiers. It varies by year (or by how much time I put into looking at draft prospects), but I don't think most years there is that much difference between the 25th-best prospect and the 38th. Ditto for 39 to 64.
Note Gute trading back twice: Gute traded the 45th pick for 48 and 159, then traded 48 for 50 and 179. Then Gute drafted Jayden Reed at 50, Dontayvion Wicks at 159 and Karl Brooks at 179. That is a good haul. I would have thought it was a great haul a year ago but Wicks has been hurt and Brooks seems to have plateaued at a lower level than I had hoped: probably should be a deep reserve in the NFL.
It is fair to look at the 45th pick that we sent to Detroit: they selected safety Brian Branch. The 48th pick went to Tampa Bay who selected OG Cody Mauch. I googled Mauch and learned that he had a 74.6 PFF grade in 2024 (after a decent but not great rookie year in 2023) and went on IR in 2025 after just 2 games. He is also 27 in 2026.
Hmmm. Branch is going to get a big second contract with his drafting team. Maybe Reed will get a 2nd contract with GB, but maybe not. Wicks and Brooks figure to get second contracts but only at the 1.0% (Brooks) to 2% (Wicks) of the salary cap limit numbers.
I think Branch or Reed, Wicks and Brooks? This is close - Branch.
I think Mauch and Wicks >> than Reed, Wicks and Brooks.
The actual facts here might lean to not trading back. Let me remind fans that the Packers selected Musgrave with the 42nd pick: GMs still have to locate and eventually draft the "right" prospects.
The study done by Massey and Thaler (a couple of Wharton academics) is getting old (2005) but it's premise that
it is better for GMs to trade down is pretty persuasive.
https://www.nber.org/papers/w11270
LeotisHarris
February 02, 2026 at 08:26 am
Thoughtful and thought-provoking exchange here, dobber and TGR. Thanks for that. Gives me hope for this site.
davekenya
February 01, 2026 at 03:40 pm
The better option to pure BPA is a'hybrid' approach between BPA drafting and Drafting for Need:
"Best Player Available at a Position of Value." where teams group players into talent tiers (e.g., "Tier 1" has five players). If they are on the clock and a Tier 1 player is at a position of need, it’s a slam dunk.
If two players are in the same talent tier, then the team uses roster need as the tiebreaker.
I think teams that use this approach also have their own values around 'which positions we value most highly' (think: TT saying 'God only made so many big men...so draft them when you see them' or Wolf always drafting a QB every draft it seemed. Harder for me to get a read on Gute.
You can't just draft purely BPA. That would mean that, hypothetically, if the best player by far on your draft board was a QB (and you couldn't get good trade value trading out of that pick), that would then follow BPA and draft a QB every single round. That would never happen, yet strictly following disciplined BPA drafting, you should do that!!!
golfpacker61
February 01, 2026 at 10:29 am
So also it would be interesting how many times GB took X-player of X-position group and how that player stood in the ranking of his position group. The obvious deal breaker of Myers over Humprey at center.
PackerBackerAZ
February 01, 2026 at 10:54 am
I could care less what he did against the big board. How did his draft picks end up with the Packers? His picks have pretty much been underwhelming at best and terrible at worst. His history will show that he didn't draft many football players.
GreenandBold
February 01, 2026 at 11:04 am
His first round picks are legendary ! Legendarily bad ! And those are the ones that should fuel your roster .
the_gavia_pass
February 01, 2026 at 11:57 am
Just One name: Jordan love.
he made all the possible mistakes there: bad communication inside the organization, bad talent on the player, bad strategic vision Just based on "if we did It with favre-rodgers we can do now the same", it's something closer to a hack than an NFL GM.
the problem with gutey and the reason they did not fire him, Is that all the organization was and Is on the same line, so if gutey fall they all will fall.
I hoped Policy was different, due to his father roots but he spent too many years with Murphy and he became exactly the same.
davekenya
February 01, 2026 at 04:04 pm
Sticking purely to BPA drafting philosophy can end up being drafting 'for the future' rather than 'for helping the team now'. And when you keep doing that, the 'future' never becomes 'now'. And your team never gets 'over the hump'. I get you don't want to reach (don't). The BPA argument 'you never know where an injury will hit...so a BPA pick today might mean that guy has to start tomorrow' doesn't hold water. You can just as easily have injuries hit at any position on the field...not just where the BPA guy fits. If you have injuries at positions you're already thin at, you're sunk.
We get relatively LOW value out of many of our top picks b/c they sit on the bench 'developing' - being 'red shirted' - (Love, Gary, LVN) during their low cap rookie contracts. Then, IF they 'develop' by year 4, we need to pay them high 2nd contracts after doing little to help the team years 1-3. This is stupid and inefficient. Walker and Wyatt were not 'red shirt' draft picks and the team benefited immediately b/c of it.
How was GB a better team on the field when 1st rounder Gary sat 2 years behind the Smith brothers?
How was GB a better team on the field when Love sat behind AR? (don't get AR started!)
Now, how is GB a better team on the field with LVN sitting behind Gary and Parsons?
At least for the next 2 years, we'll get high productivity from our 2026 and 2027 1st rounders -- in Parsons!
golfpacker61
February 01, 2026 at 04:37 pm
Going into the 2025 season GB was considered a contender to go to the Super Bowl. Hence the signings of Banks and Hobbs. 2 terrible choices and massive overpays for both of them. It also makes me wonder how the FO could choose to ignore the huge need at CB by selecting 2 WRs and a OT/OG with our first 3 picks. Even in the 4th when we picked Sorrell, there was a CB that people had mocked to us in the first round. Shavon Revel was coming off ACL surgery and fell a long ways. We should have grabbed him instead of Sorrell.
DT was the other biggest need but the Top 4 all went before #22. The only WR I would have chosen @ #22 was Emeka Egbuku-Ohio State, everyone else that was left @ #22 had a 2nd round grade. The smart move would have been to find a trade partner and move back 10-15 picks, gain some extra premium picks and fill 4-5 needs instead of reaching like we did on our first 3 picks.
packertarheel
February 01, 2026 at 07:07 pm
Why not just buy the Cheesehead TV draft guide to do the draft? You would do just as well and save a ton of money on scouts and front office salaries. Gutekunst is the absolute worst about trying to outsmart everyone else and not doing the obviously correct move. It's frustrating to watch him run this team. Only Jerry Jones is worse.
golfpacker61
February 02, 2026 at 09:47 am
Interesting idea. I would bet percentage of hits vs misses we would be ahead with the guide. And we would have Cooper DeJean, Nakobe Dean , and Creed Humphey on the team right now. Probably also a couple very good WRs too.
Since'75
February 04, 2026 at 04:00 pm
We can dissect Gute and his drafts, his free agent signings, until we all turn blue.
The bottom bottom line is RESULTS.
What have the Packers won?
**********
A reporter once asked Murphy (maybe 2 years ago), what he thought about his expectations concerning the upcoming season.
He said...."Well, we are called Title Town."
So again, the bottom line is results.
From where i sit, 3 years, and a 1-3 playoff record doesn't spell success, or any reason to hand out extensions across the board, but here we are.
Playing the waiting game, like i've been patiently doing since the Seattle NFCCG.
Also (still) waiting.....for a #1 receiver.
Some believed we didn't need one, until last off season that is.
Well.........
Unfortunately now....we have more important area's of need, than a receiver.