Pack-A-Day Podcast - Episode 2371 - Re-Evaluating Brian Gutekunst's Draft History

On today's show, Andy looks back at Gutey's draft history and re-analyzes each class now that the 2024 season is in the books. Plus, thoughts on Ben Johnson becoming the new Bears Head Coach. Don't miss it!

On today's show, Andy looks back at Gutey's draft history and re-analyzes each class now that the 2024 season is in the books. Plus, thoughts on Ben Johnson becoming the new Bears Head Coach. Don't miss it!

 
 

 

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Andy is a graduate of UW-Oshkosh and owns & operates the Pack-A-Day Podcast. Andy has taken multiple courses in NFL scouting and is an Editor for Packer Report. Andy grew up in Green Bay and is a lifelong season ticket holder - follow him on Twitter @AndyHermanNFL!

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Comments (13)

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stockholder's picture

January 21, 2025 at 06:53 am

So everyone seems happy with Cooper.
But lets not forget, he was the top ILB
coming out.
And that is the key to Gute being successful.
When the best positional player of the draft,
is still on the board. TAKE HIM>
That was the mistake of not taking Branch.
And so many others.
Top players always start.

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jannes bjornson's picture

January 21, 2025 at 11:59 am

Naturally, worth repeating...see how McLaurin fares this weekend, maybe two TDs??

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BA4Pack's picture

January 21, 2025 at 07:15 am

Gutey has had his share of hits and misses for sure.
Branch was drafted #45 so he was passed on 44 times. That’s the case with every player the Packers should have draft in hindsight.

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stockholder's picture

January 21, 2025 at 07:25 am

Humphries vs. Myers ???

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BA4Pack's picture

January 21, 2025 at 09:33 am

Yep that was definately a glaring miss by Gutey.

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BA4Pack's picture

January 21, 2025 at 09:37 am

2021 was a bad draft year.

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jannes bjornson's picture

January 21, 2025 at 12:04 pm

Greg Rousseau, Odafe Oweh, Shoyinka and TysonCampbell beg to differ...That's just Rd One.

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Coldworld's picture

January 21, 2025 at 12:12 pm

3/32? Regardless of pick position as well? That’s a pretty dire draft defined.

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KenEllis's picture

January 21, 2025 at 09:25 am

Every GM hits and misses in the draft. The same holds true for Gutey.

But there are some real bad misses that continue to haunt:

In 2019, the WR starved Packers traded up in round 1 to take ... Darnell Savage. Not only did Savage not pan out but Deebo Samuel, DK Metcalf, and AJ Brown were all on the board.

Then, in round 3, the Packers took Jace Sternberger 1 pick before Terry McLaurin. Even Sternberger laughs at that.

In 2021 the Pack had a need at Center. The consensus #1 Center on the board was Creed Humphrey. Gutey shocked by making Josh Myers the first C to be drafted that year. Humphrey went the very next pick to KC where he has become an All-Pro player whereas Myers was one of the lowest rated Centers in the NFL again this year by PFF and he may well walk in free agency.

Green Bay also still needed a WR in 2021, so Gutey again traded up to take slot WR Amari Rodgers in round 3. The Lions took slot WR Amon-Ra St. Brown in round 4.

Finally, Green Bay doesn't often get a top half of the draft selection, but it had #13 in 2023. There were a number of players who have already contributed to their teams on the board when GB took Lukas Van Ness. To date, LVN has been perhaps Gutey's biggest first-round bust.

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Coldworld's picture

January 21, 2025 at 01:45 pm

Van Ness looks the part, his metrics suggest the look is valid. His play does not. He should have been a prime beneficiary on paper of the switch to a 4:3. He was mostly ineffectual and clearly hadn’t learned any new moves either on his own or through being coached to. Rebrovich is gone. Hopefully LaFleur/Hafley/Gute have made it clear to him he needs to learn his craft.

Until I see signs of expanding his repertoire I’m going to put this down to a clear example of both bad coaching and overconfidence in how far his natural ability will take him on the part of the player. I hope he’s hearing what people think and resolved to prove them wrong. Again, this comes down to coaching, in season but also in post season review.

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Coldworld's picture

January 21, 2025 at 12:09 pm

The reality is that all GMs are made by two things. The first is finding a QB of true class, the second is an extraordinarily fortunate draft or a couple of very good ones in close succession. I say lucky because no GM has ever sustained that kind of success.

Teams also need good coaching. A bad coach leads to any draft looking worse and stunts player growth as well, compounding the problem. The regression this year being so general is a sign of the latter regardless of Gute’s merits. Ordinarily a GM could address that.

Under our structure Gute can’t. It may yet mean we start over completely in the near future. Our D has been part of the problem, but may not be now. Our O design and calling definitely was this year and may have been previously. Gute and LaFleur are fast heading into a season where there are no excuses. LaFleur may yet take Gute down with him. This coaching staff isn’t looking particularly impressive on the offensive side.

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Bear's picture

January 21, 2025 at 12:46 pm

20 years counted.
According to Pro Football Reference, most drafted players are busts. the only problem with their system is they don’t take into account the round they where picked. But anyway…
16.7% don’t even end playing for the drafting team (20 years average)
37% are considered ‘useless’, or busts.
5.3% are ‘poor’. Busts such as Jamarcus Russell are here.
So 69% are ‘poor’ or worst.
10.5% average
12.3% good 
6.8% great
1% legendary
That gives 20.1% good. 2 out of 10.

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MitchAnthony's picture

January 21, 2025 at 01:45 pm

This is just a point of discussion, that's all.

We look at this history of BG's drafts and we are often told how Green Bay has wanted to get faster and more athletic in their player selections. RAS is a big driver in some of these picks if not many of these picks. If these guys look great in Under Armor at the Underwear Olympics (combine) and they come out with a really good RAS, GB gets a serious crush on some of these candidates. These are the players who make up GB's draft and develop crowd. LVN was a 9.39! Pretty impressive, right? AJ Dillon and his big thighs were a 9.18 when he was drafted.

The two players who made the biggest impact this year on either side of the ball were not selected in a draft by Green Bay, they were free agent acquisitions. Xavier McKinney sported a RAS of 5.85 and Josh Jacobs a RAS of 5.72 in their respective combines.

I get it. RAS is a measurable, and you do need measurable data sets when making decisions. Maybe, just maybe, GB is focusing a bit too much on RAS and missing some things with the eye test when it comes to film study and finding real football talent instead of football prospects and projects.

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