My One and Only 2024 Packers 53-man Roster Prediction
Jersey Al takes his annual shot at predicting the Packers roster just before cutdown day.
By JerseyAl
By now, you've surely read way too many 53-man roster predictions, you say? No kidding! Weekly predictions seem to be the norm nowadays. Going back over a decade, I've tried to be kind to you and only do one of these.
So here it is, my annual stab at predicting the Packers' 53-man roster. Note that for the majority of this prediction, this is what I think the Packers will do, but it's hard to not let a little personal preference sneak in at times.
The Turk is a cruel taskmaster, and soon, 37 NFL dreams will hit a bump in the road or be ended completely.
Cutdowns are never a fun time, but it is a fun exercise to try to predict the outcomes.
Here goes:.
OFFENSE: 24
QB: Love, Pratt
RB: Jacobs, Wilson, LLoyd (Dillon to IR)
TE: Musgrave, Kraft, Sims, Davis
WR: Watson, Doubs, Reed, Wicks, Melton, Heath (Heath over Dubose is a little personal preference creeping in.)
OL:Walker, Jenkins, Myers, Morgan, Tom, Rhyan, Monk, Dillard, Telfort
COMMENTS: I've seen some people suggest cutting both Clifford and Pratt and bringing one back to the Practice Squad while signing a more experienced backup off the waiver wire. Not a crazy idea, but taking such risks is generally not how the Packers operate. I kept Pratt because I believe he sees the field better and has a higher upside. I'm guessing either Lloyd or Dillon will end up on IR. Due to the ominous "getting other opinions" statement LaFleur made about Dillon's injury, I'm guessing it's him. I almost left Davis off, as he now has a shoulder injury and could be IR'd to make room for someone else, but they love his special teams play. As for the wide receivers, the final spot for me was between Heath and DuBose. I feel that DuBose may have a higher long term upside, but Heath is a gamer. All he does is find the open spots and catches the ball when you need a first down. And he's a nasty blocker downfield. That's enough for me. As for the OL, I really wanted to keep 10, but went with these 9. Left out are Travis Glover and Caleb Jones, who should make it to the practice squad. Note that it would not shock me at all to see Royce Newman make the team again. We've been trying to say "Goodbye Newman" for a couple of years, but he keeps hanging on and the contract restructure he agreed to this offseason makes it more attractive for the Packers to keep him. Be prepared.
DEFENSE: 26
DL: Clark, Slaton, Wyatt, Wooden, Brooks
DE/OLB: P Smith, Gary, Van Ness, Enagbare
ILB: Walker, McDuffie, Wilson, Cooper, Hopper, Welch
CB: Alexander, Stokes, Nixon, Valentine, King
S: McKinney, Bullard, Williams, Johnson, Oladapo, Anderson
COMMENTS: Nothing to discuss on the DL. As for DE/OLB, the four are set in stone but it was hard to leave Aaron Mosby off. Mosby has been the surprise splash of camp on defense, but I'm not going to fall into the "someone will claim him" trap, which almost never happens. He's on my practice squad. Normally, I'd expect the Packers to keep five at this position, but with Karl Brooks' ability to play on the edge, they have a built-in backup there and I'm all in on getting Brooks some more snaps. Similar situation with the ILBs with five set in stone, but how do you leave Welch off? Well I didn't. Welch is a special teams demon and you can be sure Bisaccia lobbies hard for him to stay on the 53. Cornerback is the spot I took a risk at to make room for Welch, since S Bullard can be expected to get snaps as a slot CB anyway. Although I'm not that confident in Kalen King, the Packers will keep their draft pick and send Ballentine to the Practice Squad. Bisaccia loves his safeties for special teams, so it was hard not to add Anderson as the sixth safety.
SPECIALISTS: 3
Carlson, Whelan, Orzech
COMMENTS: Oh Anders... what are we going to do with you? Probably keep looking for his replacement. As for Joseph, as a vested veteran the Packers would have to pay his entire salary if he's on the team Week 1 and I don't think he's earned that level of commitment from Green Bay. Not that Anders has earned much, but he could be cut at any time and the Packers would not have to pay the rest of his salary. It's sad, but with both kickers taking turns being inadequate, I think the money issue is the difference maker here. I correctly had Whelan beating out O'Donnell last year, and he has looked solid in preseason with no competition needed.
PRACTICE SQUAD:
WR DuBose, WR Hicks, QB Clifford, CB Ballentine, DL Mosby, CB Rochell, LB, Cox, OT Jones, OT Glover, DL Schad, G Smith, RB Merriweather, TE Wilson
LATE BREAKING NEWS...
Important note as teams construct their initial 53-man rosters:
NFL teams were informed that the NFLPA vetoed the revised Emergency 3rd Quarterback rule that would have allowed teams to elevate a bona fide QB from the practice squad an unlimited number of times.
So, the rule…
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) August 26, 2024
Finally, since others are doing it, here is my Tuesday morning adjusted prediction taking into account the Willis trade and a Rob Demovsky report that Marshawn Lloyd will go on IR:
In that case, for the record, here's my new "adjusted because that snake Andy Herman did it" #Packers 53-man Roster prediction:
OFFENSE: 24
QB: Love, Willis
RB: Jacobs, Wilson, Dillon (LLoyd to IR)
TE: Musgrave, Kraft, Sims
WR: Watson, Doubs, Reed, Wicks, Melton, Heath… https://t.co/CFSawXqlE7— Jersey Al - GBP (@JerseyAlGBP) August 27, 2024
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"Jersey Al" Bracco is the Editor-In-Chief, part owner and wearer of various hats for CheeseheadTV.com and PackersTalk.com. He's a lifetime Packers fan living in the land of the Giants (and Jets). Follow Al on twitter at @JerseyalGBP.
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Comments (80)
PeteK
August 26, 2024 at 11:07 am
That last miss by Carlson and near long miss coupled with Joseph's right down the middle 50 yarder might have spelled the end for Anders. I know there is concern about Joseph's ability to kick outdoors, but I have not seen an improvement from Carlson.
Coldworld
August 26, 2024 at 12:15 pm
We aren’t going to keep an older vested kicker who misses more than Carlson. So if it’s not going to be Joseph then who? It’s not Hales at this point.
WD
August 26, 2024 at 02:47 pm
Unfortunately, It will take a few missed kicks and extra points before management will admit they made a mistake in resigning Carlson. He had it in the bag until the final chip shot was missed. Deja vu from the lost playoff game kick he blew. I hope I am wrong.
WestCoastPackerBacker
August 26, 2024 at 03:52 pm
Carlson wasn't resigned. He was drafted last year and they brought in competition for him this spring. They just haven't cut him (yet) cuz they haven't figured out anyone better.
Coldworld
August 26, 2024 at 11:07 am
I’d be surprised to see Lloyd avoid IR. He’s not healthy and missed too much of camp. Much as I want him as an option, I don’t see LaFleur giving him many snaps without proving he can retain possession and protect. I’d be ok with Merriweather as RB 3 to start out. He can pass protect and runs hard. I’m not sure about McCrary in protection. Personally I’d move on from Dillon, roster Merriweather to start out and get McCrary on the PS initially.
I can’t get on board with Telfort over either Jones or Glover or in fact, both. He’s just not mobile enough as I see it, especially laterally. Even if I’m open to the possibility of being proved wrong about that, I definitely can't get on board with keeping Newman and am as certain as I could be. I’d keep Smith, Telfort or Tenuta first—the last two have played T and G and haven’t been worse (I actually prefer either at G despite their height).
I can’t get behind rostering Davis either. He’s never been as good in games as practice and was beyond awful at the only thing he’s supposed to do in Denver. Not bad, not very bad, but awful. Pearson was good in the run blocking role on Saturday. He might even bring more in the passing game and can run the ball as a wrinkle. Keep him or do away with the H back. I’d IR Davis with a return designation only if there’s no other reasonable candidate for the second designation, and then as depth insurance if we can’t find one for the PS. Time to move on.
On D, King and Oladapo to the PS for Rochell and Mosby. ST wins, Rochell may well be our 4th best perimeter corner and Ballentine can cover the slot depth when a S can’t. AJJ is going to get snaps, freeing up a S for the slot if needed.
Ballentine is likely active for STs anyway. He bumps Anderson because of his versatility, proven defensive adequacy and ST ability, of which is now a lot deeper with Rochell, Mosby and Ballentine as well as Welch, whom you had anyway. No need for a player we’d not want out on D.
Alternatively, if Hafley would use a ILB as a situational rusher/ coverage DE. Anderson could stay, but after Saturday I’m not convinced Mosby’s versatility isn’t a more intriguing source of opportunity for Hafley and brings ST value.
Probably just confirmed the departure of most mentioned favorably by me, but that’s my take on what’s earned on field and the best mix for STs and depth elsewhere, injury or situational.
Dubose or Heath is too close to call. I’d go with the one deemed to run better routes and to have more athleticism. At this point I don’t know who that is. I do know that Hicks is the first WR I want on the PS. More versatile and more upside than both, but in need of polishing.
I don’t see any major risks of waiver claims, let alone that would upset me, other than Wilson and Melton. The rest are late picks who have shown little for various reasons or unknowns. None would make or break us and none have vast upside I see that I wouldn’t let go and are plausibly ready to justify a roster spot (Hicks, King, Oladapo and perhaps Russell would disappoint but aren’t ready. I’d put Pratt in that category too).
Leatherhead
August 26, 2024 at 03:40 pm
CW, it's hard to understand all the downvotes here. It would be helpful if somebody would explain what it means.
Heath is listed as a second string WR on the Packers depth chart, so I'm assuming he's in. Likewise with Melton and Wilson.
We only have room to add a few, so I'm adding Mosby, King, and Ballantine to the 22 defensive players,
Newman will be starting for us at some point this year.
Bitternotsour
August 26, 2024 at 07:52 pm
I can explain. Downvotes are personal expressions by the bitter amongst us. They have no relation to the discussion and are useless to the overall understanding of the issue. They are unsigned letters to the editor. They are fists shaken at clouds. They are the foot stomping of toddlers. Disregard the emoji.
Thegreatreynoldo
August 27, 2024 at 04:36 am
The downvotes are not surprising. Lots of opinions in one comment. How in the world is Bo Melton waived and on the CW's practice squad? He would be a little worried about a waiver claim on Wilson n(and Melton). Which one: Eric, Joel, or Emanuel? I am not worried about waiver claims on Emanuel or Eric because they would be making my 53-man roster. I prefer Joel W. to pass through waivers but it is not a big deal: TEs who can catch and move a little but can't block can be found. We have someone like that come out of nowhere most years.
Trading for QB Malik Willis to back up Love isn't surprising. Under the QB section of one of my snap count articles, I just listed a tweet with QBs on other teams who might be acquired.
Ditto for OT. None of the tackles vying for the swing backup OT role is any good. As for Dillard, Jones, Telfort, Tenuta, one might as well throw a dart. It is hard to tell given the opponents they faced.
I don't have any interest in Henry Pearson. I don't even have him on my PS, much less the 53. Looking at Jersey Al's list, I would substitute Pearson for Schad, which by the way I thought was a surprising guy for Jersey Al to like, as I thought Schad was clearly overwhelmed. EDIT: I keep forgetting Donovan Jennings. I actually did not realize that he entered the game at LG against the Ravens, so I really don't know how well he played. Maybe Jennings > Pearson/Schad.
Coldworld
August 27, 2024 at 07:51 am
The only two individuals in the discussion of bubble candidates to any degree who I think would stand a chance of being claimed are Melton and Emmanuel Wilson, if that clarifies. I think the chances of a team wanting to put any others on its 53 are very low. I don’t actually believe either will be exposed, my point was intended to be that there’s very low risk involved for most of those discussed. I think the last time we lost a player to a waiver claim was 2017: Taysom Hill and Brian Price.
I’ve not been a particularly big fan of Pearson, but he can run block. Thats essentially all the H back is asked to do these days. He can run a bit and seems to have good hands. That is a grunt role. I don’t see any other TE as competent at it either.
Schad was moved about far too much. He’s got some athleticism but he’s too small to anchor in the run game. Maybe Al thinks he can bulk up or play DE. Jennings would be on my PS at least for a more extended look.
GregC
August 26, 2024 at 11:12 am
That's an interesting idea, keeping only four DEs because Karl Brooks can play that position. It also solves the Cox vs. Mosby dilemma--by cutting both of them!
I expect Cory Ballentine to make the team over Kalen King, unless they keep six CBs and cut Zayne Anderson. They gave Ballentine some guaranteed money as I recall, so they would take a hit if they cut him. They probably would not have done that unless they were confident that he would make the roster. He played quite a bit last year, and played well.
Thegreatreynoldo
August 27, 2024 at 04:58 am
I expect Ballentine to make the 53 as well, not in lieu of King, but in addition to him. I would find the extra roster spot for King.
I like Rochell a lot, as well: I don't know how injured he is. Does he have to be waived/injured (which often means he will be on a different team), or can he be placed on IR with a return designation? I think Rochell is a little more ready to play immediately than King, but I think Ballentine is a whole lot more ready to play than either of them.
Cheezehead72
August 26, 2024 at 11:17 am
Al I agree with you but where I disagree is I believe we keep DeBose over Heath. Also I am sticking with them keep only Love so they have on position to move guys to the IR (Dillon). They will be able to get both Clifford and Pratt after they clear waivers. Yes I believe they make Pratt number 2. I just hope he does not play lie number 2 if the need arises.
Leatherhead
August 26, 2024 at 03:30 pm
If a team like....The Bears, or the Vikings, or anybody else, wanted to be funny, they could put in waiver claims on Clifford and Pratt and we'd have to go to Brazil with one QB, Love. And if Love gets hurt, then we are well and truly boned.
According to Packers.com, Heath is listed as a 2nd string WR.
dobber
August 26, 2024 at 03:46 pm
They could, but remember that a waiver claim means you've got to put that guy on your 53 and cut someone else--post 53--loose. That's two guys off your roster that you're planning to play with in this case. Waiver claims just don't happen that often. Maybe a team like the Vikes who likely aren't going anywhere could do that.
Bitternotsour
August 26, 2024 at 04:09 pm
I'd take that gamble any day. Oh noes, you signed two inexperienced guys who didn't really do a lick during the preseason, now we are forced to hire an experienced back-up. Whatsoever shall we do...
Thegreatreynoldo
August 27, 2024 at 05:02 am
AND you have to pay the waiver claim for 3 weeks at full pay. A team can waive a player they claimed on waivers whenever they wish, so technically while they have to clear a spot to make room, they don't have to clear a spot for long. Still have to pay the player they claims three weeks pay - around $150,000 for a minimum guy/rookie.
stockholder
August 26, 2024 at 11:26 am
I prefer keeping Clifford, Carlson and Newman.
Play-off chemistry first.
Newman is still good enough to back -up.
Carlson - He'll improve. And can kick off artificial turf.
Clifford- Too soon to give up -
splitpea1
August 26, 2024 at 11:29 am
I'm in strong agreement with finding a spot for Welch and keeping Heath over Dubose (although it's close). However, the Packers would be taking a big gamble at CB by not having Ballentine at the ready and counting on the unproven King at this point; especially with the injury histories of Stokes and Alexander... No comment on Carlson other than I'd rather pay someone else.
Irish_Cheesehead
August 26, 2024 at 12:54 pm
King would have gone undrafted had the Packers not taken him. I think he ends up on the PS.
cheesehead1
August 26, 2024 at 11:33 am
Gute must fix the kicking situation now, I’m confident he will do everything he can. Carlson looks the same as last year, we can’t go thru another season crossing our fingers every time he steps on the field.
PhantomII
August 26, 2024 at 11:49 am
Either back-up QB's would play better with our #1 offense in front of them. I do prefer Pratt though......the chip is on his shoulder... and I have a feeling he could elevate his play if he was in that position of need. We have a pretty solid team. The ST kicking game is the most obvious need of attention. I would feel much better with a much more consistent kicking operation and it's not just the kicker either....Get to work Gute. Pay a vet who is a lot better than this band-aid......GPG
13TimeChamps
August 26, 2024 at 12:07 pm
Ah...the old "chip on his shoulder" argument.
First off, why would this apply to Pratt? He played for a small school from a crappy football conference, who STILL got drafted and has an opportunity to play professionally.
Secondly, how exactly does having a chip on your shoulder make one play better? I've never understood that logic. Either you have the talent to make it in the NFL or you don't.
He'll either make it or he won't. It has nothing to do with having a chip on his shoulder.
BuckyBadger
August 26, 2024 at 12:23 pm
The only positions up for grabs that really matter for the 53 would be Kicker and back up QB to a lesser extent. They won't keep a kicker on the PS so the guy cut there will be on the streets. I think Pratt gets the job as he has the better arm and it isn't even close. Coaches will probably want to give the reps to the guy with more upside on his arm talent. Either way the other one will more than likely make the PS. We don't see a ton of guys getting poached from PS anymore. GMs and coaches like to the guys they had in camp and know how to scheme for.
As far as the other fringe players at the bottom of the 53 the roster will remain fluid throughout the year. Don't get too excited if a guy you liked gets the axe tomorrow, he will probably get on the roster at some point if he was even close to making it.
LambeauPlain
August 26, 2024 at 12:25 pm
Hey Al, just curious...over the last 10 years, how many times did you nail the roster?
I like your list and we all have confidence in the starters. May they all stay healthy.
I like DuBose but over the last two weeks he likely played his way onto the PS. He did have a good day of practice vs Ravens. But in the last two games he disappeared, which surprised me. And he did not block well on Saturday either, also a surprise. I go with Heath, too. Good football player.
I was also not certain Melton would make the 53 but is likely now.
Mosby plays STs as well as Anderson and the S room is loaded now. Anderson will not be snapped up for a 53 if cut either. I go with Mosby who delivered on the field and has a long resume of STs in college at Fresno State and in the NFL since 2022. The dude also runs a 4.7 as a DL!
JerseyAl
August 26, 2024 at 12:34 pm
In all my years, I've never see anyone "Nail it." The best I've ever seen was 51 out of 53, which I matched once during the Thompson years. It was easier then - Gutey is harder to predict.
LambeauPlain
August 26, 2024 at 01:06 pm
51 is quite good! I have never made it to 51. "Hello Neeeewman!" has put me behind the 8 ball the last two years.
Gutey is very hard to predict. He probably values intangibles more than we think....leadership, locker room presence, growth over time, etc.
barutanseijin
August 26, 2024 at 01:27 pm
Obviously, you need to put Newman on your list this time. Either he gets cut and you have the pleasure of seeing him leave, or he makes the 53 and you can gloat about being right. You can’t lose!
LambeauPlain
August 26, 2024 at 04:12 pm
Problem is I don't think I would gloat even then.
MooPack
August 26, 2024 at 12:33 pm
Thanks Al. Agree with most.
QB - Same
RB - Same. That stinger on Dillon is 2nd time in last 8 months I believe. Lloyd hammy will heal sooner. Send him to the same specialist as Watson and Stokes.
TE - Only change is Davis. They should look to the waiver wire for the 4th TE/ST guy.
WR - Same
OL - I'd swap out Telfort for Jones. Take out DL Schad on PS and put OL Donovan Jennings there.
DL - Same
DE/OLB - Same with exception of adding Cox
ILB -Same
CB - Keep Ballentine, King to PS
S - Oladapo to PS for adding Cox
ST - Same
CheesyTex
August 26, 2024 at 01:37 pm
Finally, a little love for Cox. Left off the 53 he's gone in a heartbeat.
Coldworld
August 26, 2024 at 02:03 pm
Cox did nothing wrong. He’s roster worthy, thou arguably a misfit in this scheme. Mosby is that too, but more situationally versatile and just made more key plays and plays STs. Even he may not make the roster though. Wooden, Brooks or an ILB like Hopper might be used in the event of injury or situationally leaving only 4 DEs listed on the roster.
Joemailman
August 26, 2024 at 12:39 pm
My final stab at the initial 53 has 7 WR's and 0 kickers. Gute will pick up a kicker. That 32 yards miss by Carlson was just too much.
BuckyBadger
August 26, 2024 at 12:49 pm
That is how I do my fantasy team, leave the kicker off and figure it out later. lol
WD
August 26, 2024 at 03:15 pm
I think we need 10 OL more than we need 7 WR. Moreover we meed 10 OL more than 4 TEs in my opinion. What we need most Is Big Beef Caleb Jones on the line of scrimmage on short yard situations! And, I mean on the line of scrimmage; not the practice squad!
BuckyBadger
August 26, 2024 at 12:49 pm
People love Caleb Jones and I get it. He is a massive human being and looked improved this year but fans don't get to see him vs top NFL talent in preseason games and where Caleb's game falls off is vs speed rushers. Guys with top speed coming out of their breaks. You aren't going to pull rush him and if he gets his hands on you it is all over but he doesn't face top speed guys in the 2nd half of a preseason game. How he performed in camp with his reps vs Gary and LVN and during inter squad scrimmages would be more of a determinating factor. If he is moving his feet to get into position to block speed guys who could become a top LT but not sure he ever will with that size.
GregC
August 26, 2024 at 12:59 pm
Yeah, that has to be the problem with Jones, even though he looks good vs. backups. His run blocking is outstanding, but for an OT, pass blocking is far more important. Run blocking is almost irrelevant because any OT who is a good pass blocker is likely to be at least adequate as a run blocker. Pass blocking is a higher level skill for OTs, playing out on the edge, and that's where Jones's massive build could actually be an impediment. He may be just a tick slow against speed rushers.
Coldworld
August 26, 2024 at 02:12 pm
All well and good sounding. I’m curious where you saw this reality take shape? In college where he weighed 400 pounds not in the 330s? It’s not here, because they’ve not given him the chance this year, he was buried last year behind Nijman and not as a rookie.
Regardless of how you came to know this, you seem fine with Telfort. Telfort is less mobile, in terms of foot speed and particularly laterally, than Jones, or Tenuta for that matter. Dillard has plenty of foot speed. Whether they take him to the right place at the right time had been the issue as soon as teams start pulling or stunting. I suppose we will trust that that has suddenly changed?
It’s not that I think Caleb Jones is the greatest thing out there, it’s just that I believe he has more agility than Telfort, this year’s seeming favorite and out played him and the others. Dillard has looked good before in camp, it’s what happens in season that has not been pretty. At least we aren’t paying him what the last team that thought that could change did. Thats how he got here on a minimum deal, and they played him at LT. He’s been a lot worse at RT.
BuckyBadger
August 26, 2024 at 04:31 pm
I wouldn't really be fine with either but you what do you think has been holding him back all these years? I didn't even mention Telfort as I don't think he would be the 3rd tackle either. The OL has very little in the way of depth.
I know his story going back to college where I watched his tape. He is here for his size and they can hope they can make him into something. Maybe he made the roster but wouldn't be shocked to find him on the 53 without a bunch of injuries. Many NFL pass rushers would just run right around this guy like he wasn't there.
Coldworld
August 26, 2024 at 07:18 pm
He was over 400 pounds in college. I will wager he’d not be here were he that or even the 370 of the combine. His first year was largely lost to Mano (I think) in season, when he might have been in line for some snaps. His second year was the coming out of Tom and Watson and behind them was Nijman. His third year was this one when he was hurt entering camp and only at full speed for games 2&3. By which time Stenavich had gone all in on a slower, less agile, big man who was the shock PS invite this time last year. I have no idea why, based on play.
Let’s be clear, Telfort is a massive guy. An inch or so shorter than Jones but essentially the same weight. If you are going to say Jones is too big, then Telfort is also and certainly not more agile. So this argument doesn’t work for me here.
BuckyBadger
August 27, 2024 at 09:33 am
I have never once argued for Telfort. Just saying what I see in Caleb who everyone seems to think is so great. Well he has been waived.
LambeauPlain
August 26, 2024 at 04:42 pm
The only contest between Tenuta, Telfort, or Jones is awarding one of them with a spot the PS.
To me, that would be Caleb Jones. Walker developed slow too but showed enough growth to make the 53 his rookie 2023 season. Caleb may be a step slower in his development. And unlike Tenuta and Telfort, he has what they never will...massive size and strength. So expect he's a lock for the PS.
Do you think someone else would put Caleb on their 53?
I would find another T tomorrow after cutdowns.
WD
August 26, 2024 at 03:04 pm
People love Caleb Jones because they see the games and they love the way he blocks and manhandles his opponents from whistle to whistle. He does that most every play. Watch him! Oh; he doesn't do as well against Rashad Gary? So, put him on the practice squad? Nothing irritates me more than the disrespect given to Caleb Jones! Especially when our short yardage running game chronically sucks no matter who is in there. Moreover who is Telfort?
BuckyBadger
August 26, 2024 at 04:28 pm
The guys he manhandles are being cut today and tomorrow. Can he take on a fast NLF starting caliber pass rusher? The Lions have a couple, the Bears beefed up their pass rush and the Vikings are blitz happy. If the can't bend and get the edge he is not worth much to you otu there. I do watch him, watched him and handicapped his play in college as well. He is a massive man but NFL is about speed as much if not more than size.
DragonSilk
August 26, 2024 at 02:12 pm
I can see taking a chance on Carlson. My fear with him is that getting cut might shake him up enough to start kicking lights out, like his brother, for somebody else. Besides Joseph hasn't done enough where another team is going to snatch him up. He should be available to come in and compete with somebody new if Carlson goes completely in the toilet.
Leatherhead
August 26, 2024 at 03:24 pm
Dude...he was 20 for 20 inside of 40 last year. He was 60% from over 50 yards. That's pretty good.
Oppy
August 26, 2024 at 05:50 pm
Let's talk about his five shanked extra points. That's not pretty good.
I keep on saying this, hoping some day, you'll listen:
Missed extra points cost you wins.
I get your simple math: 3>1. Yes, a FG is worth more than an extra point.
MISSED EXTRA POINTS COST TEAMS WINS.
Leatherhead
August 26, 2024 at 08:58 pm
What wins did those misses cost us last year? It's one point. It's not like missing a FG, which is like a turnover. A turnover is a MUCH bigger deal than a missed extra point. Most teams in the league last year missed 1 or 2 .
Tell me the last time that the Packers lost a game because of a missed extra point. None comes to mind, not last year or in previous years. Saying it in all caps just means "I'm wrong at the top of my lungs". It's an axiom, and not one that's going to stand up to a lot of scrutiny.
If you want to talk Math, I would point out that if a good offensive team went for two every time, and made half of them, it would be the same as hitting every extra point, which only a few teams do. I wouldn't be kicking extra points, period. And when I kicked short FGs, I'd prefer the guy who was 20 for 20 inside the 40.
Mostly, I'd go for it a lot more. I'd have a four down mentality and I'd try to grind it into the endzone, then get the two point conversion, because that'd be 8 points and 8 >3
Oppy
August 26, 2024 at 09:12 pm
I don't want to badger on about this, but you're wrong about the two point thing as well, and the reason why is for the math to "balance out" on the averages (which isn't how it works, but I'll indulge you), you need to score touchdown in sets of two. Statistically, the way you're presenting the math, the math only works out if you score 2 tds, 4 tds, 6 tds, etc and so forth. Odd numbers of TDs destroy the logic.
The other thing to consider, is that for *most* NFL kickers, the extra point is a 96% or so success rate. Statistically, that means 96% of the time, you score that extra point. Statistically, the 2 point conversion rate in 2023 was 48%. In the real world, the way statistics work- that doesn't mean that for every (2) 2-point attempts, you (roughly) score once, so it would "make up" for the previous missed attempt. That's not how it works. Statistically, it means every single time you attempt that 2 point conversion, you have a greater probability to fail to convert than to succeed. Your odds of succeeding don't increase because you failed on a previous attempt.
Teams regularly get themselves into serious trouble, and do lose games, when they fail to convert 7 total points on a TD (TD + Extra Point). Please don't pretend like they don't.
NFL kickers must make extra points.
Leatherhead
August 26, 2024 at 09:20 pm
We'll agree to disagree. If two teams each scored 50 TDs in a season, and one team kicked the extra point and made 96% of them, that would be 48 points.
If an AVERAGE offense went for two 50 times, at 48%, that would be 48 points.
If an ABOVE AVERAGE offense went for two 50 times in a season, they might well do better than that.
If you ever come up with that example of a team that lost a game because of an extra point, let me know. I'm sure it has happened at least once, just like everything else.
MadMax
August 26, 2024 at 08:10 pm
Yes, but an extra point is a 33 yarder & how many of those did he miss last season including playoffs?
ricky
August 26, 2024 at 03:01 pm
When Bisaccia was hired, there was finally hope that the Packers would have a much improved ST unit. Well, not so much.
"The Green Bay Packers are back near the bottom of Rick Gosselin's annual special teams rankings. After jumping from No. 32 (last) to No. 22 in Rich Bisaccia's first season as special teams coordinator in 2022, the Packers fell back seven spots and finished 29th in Gosselin's rankings for 2023."
Now, they have a kicker that Bisaccia likes, because he coached his brother, who puts fans on the edge of their seats every time he trots out to attempt a FG or XP. Maybe this will all work out in the end. But right now, the ST guru doesn't seem to be building a stronger unit. They are still the weakest part of the Packers game, by far. So, how hot is that seat? Or will this be another case of LaFleur keeping a guy around for no obvious reason (Joe Barry comes to mind; but Butkus also has underwhelmed at OL coach).
WestCoastPackerBacker
August 26, 2024 at 04:25 pm
" but Butkus also has underwhelmed at OL coach)." What is the issue?
After losing all-pro #69 in the first game, they took some time to gel, but by the 2nd half of the season, the line was not a problem and they held up VERY well against really good pass rushers in the playoffs starting a 7th rounder at LT. Not to mention #33 going for over 100 yds/game for the last 5 games of the year (season + post season). So the line was functioning well in protection as well as the run game.
So what is the issue with Butkus?
Leatherhead
August 26, 2024 at 05:01 pm
That's how I see it. These guys had a pretty good product on the field when it mattered, despite injuries. Butkus deserves credit.
In fact, when injuries strike and we start putting backups on the field, Butkus will find a way to make it work. If injuries DO NOT strike, we should have a pretty good line this year.
Leatherhead
August 26, 2024 at 03:22 pm
If we just go with the first and second teams, as posted to Packers.com, that gives us our 44, then add the three specialists. Then we can add six more players, or seven if we put somebody on IR. I'd keep Caleb, Wilson, and Sims on offense, and King, Ballantine, and Mosby on defense.
That's my 53.
LambeauPlain
August 26, 2024 at 04:23 pm
Like you, I don't foresee many, if any surprises tomorrow.
I do feel very good about the potential of our starters on O and D...and key backups who will play significant snaps.
Bisaccia will lobby hard for Carlson and also advocate for Wilson and Mosby, two solid ST LBs.
However, If Rich cannot get Carlson corrected soon, not only should the kicker go, maybe a change at ST Coach is (again!) needed. Just what has Rich done to earn his NFL leading ST coordinator salary and earn a promotion to assistant HC? I truly thought he would turn around our lousy STs. Going into the 3rd year. Waiting...
Leatherhead
August 26, 2024 at 05:08 pm
Carlson has never missed a kick under 40. Everybody focuses so much on some missed extra points that they're missing the big picture, IMO. The extra points don't matter that much. It's one point....it's not liked a missed FG, which is like a turnover. Most of the teams in the league missed at least one or two, so we're quibbling over 2 extra points a year right now.
Wilson, according to the packers.com depth chart, is a STARTING linebacker, ahead of Cooper at this point. Mosby is not listed as being on the first or second string, but he'd be one of the players I'd add.
Packitin
August 26, 2024 at 04:37 pm
Some notes on Roster cuts:
ATL waived John Leglue. I thought he'd stick.
Vikings waived OT Jeremy Flax. Apparently not cut from the right cloth.
The Cowboys waived Tyron Billy-Johnson. Seems his White Shoes and kick-return skills weren't enough.
The Chargers cut QB Max Duggan, but they're looking forward to signing him to the PS--yes, Max Duggan Returns!
OT Brian Dooley was waived by the Titans. Hang down your head, Brian Dooley.
The Bengals cut OL Jackson Carman, which matters only to me. I guess I'm All By Myself.
Miami cut LB Zeke Vandenburgh. He couldn't seem to work in Concert with the other defenders.
P Pressley Harvin III was not only cut by SF, he had to return to Gilligan's Island.
GregC
August 26, 2024 at 04:45 pm
You get an upvote for the Eric Carmen reference. I don't particularly like that song, but I'm a pretty big Raspberries fan.
Leatherhead
August 26, 2024 at 05:16 pm
Clever. The Jackson Carman thing caught my eye and I checked....he got himself cut. The Packers should be on this.
He was the #46 guy taken, started at RG. The next year, he began on the bench but came on to play well at LT.
Last year, he didn't play. I don't know the details of that.
This year, he drew 3 holding penalties and an offsides in one game. He wanted out, obviously. I can't believe he's not a better player than Royce Newman.
Bitternotsour
August 26, 2024 at 05:17 pm
quality work there.
I might have gone with leStick though.
Bitternotsour
August 26, 2024 at 05:14 pm
Malik Willis for a 7th. No ones eyes deceived them. Both Clifford and Pratt were not up to it
Leatherhead
August 26, 2024 at 05:22 pm
Now everybody has to redo their 53. I thought Clifford and Pratt were workable and I don't know anything about Willis.
Why isn't there a deep dive on this posted already?
Bitternotsour
August 26, 2024 at 05:29 pm
has the kind of skillset that can steal a game here and there. unpredictable, fast. fearless.
Oppy
August 26, 2024 at 06:29 pm
I'm a hard pass on Malik Willis.
Run first QB who's passing game seems to rely on PA, after which he just stares down the target and waits for him to shake free before delivering the ball.
I watch his game vs the Pats and yes, he's improved on his tendency to always run first, and he did occasionally look as though he may have gone through 1st to 2nd progression a few times... but that's after the Titans put a full year of work into developing him.
He's a 3rd round pick in 2022 that the Titans just decided to part with for a 7th round pick in 2024.
I sincerely hope this move is about the Packers deciding they would like a gadget player / backup QB with a divergent skill set more than it's about the Packers not having faith in one of their two young backup QBs.
Hope I'm wrong. This guy feels like a Deshone Kizer type move- a player the Packers were interested in two years ago, and they saw an opportunity to kick tires for a relatively cheap price.. because I have a bad feeling about Willis. Does not look like NFL talent to me. Mike Vick without the arm talent or football IQ. Good lord let me be wrong.
Bitternotsour
August 26, 2024 at 06:48 pm
I'd say more Geno Smith than Kizer, or a shorter Justin Fields. He has a gun. I'm delighted with an alternative skillset, seems I dunno, smart. If Love goes down for a quarter he could go in cause some real havoc.
PackEyedOptimist
August 26, 2024 at 06:56 pm
While I agree with most of your statements, I think he is an improvement for the early season roster.
He is elusive, and has a strong arm.
His college highlights are impressive.
I think he can grow with coaching.
A 7th round pick is a very low cost for a guy that some analysts thought might be a first round pick just two years ago.
I expect Pratt to be on the PS and elevated for the early games.
Oppy
August 26, 2024 at 07:23 pm
His college highlights are what scare me away from him.
That's all they are- college highlights. That type of QB play will not get it done in the NFL. One trick pony who relies on athleticism first- run it- and when he does throw the ball, he doesn't read the field - just locks onto one target and waits for them to get open.. or he tucks it and runs again.
As far as being an improvement for the early season roster, I can't agree. This is a player who has no knowledge of our roster. He'll make a fine backup RB I guess.
I know I'm becoming a run away train on the negativity track here, but my eyes don't like his tape whatsoever. That's not an NFL QB. As always, I would be enthusiastic to be 100% wrong. Last time I was this sure a player would bust for the Packers was DeShone Kizer... and I'd actually go with Kizer over what I've seen of Willis' tape.
But I guess there's a reason why the Packers picked him up. So we'll wait and see.
Bitternotsour
August 26, 2024 at 07:58 pm
This is an interesting view. He runs his offense. He runs it with amazing skills. He didn't design the offense, how is it an indictment of his skillset. He runs like Lamar and throws the ball a hell of a lot better than Clifford or Pratt. Jesus man, the guy has unbelievable skills. Are you watching different highlights?
What on earth are you seeing on tape? The college compilations I'm seeing he looks like a world beater. Would you be happier if he played for North Dakota State and did those things?
Oppy
August 26, 2024 at 09:23 pm
Run first QBs who can't operate out of a pocket and stare down the first read don't succeed in the NFL.
Is he an amazing athlete? Yes. Is he a good QB? I don't think so.
He's got a gun but he regularly misses his targets and he doesn't seem capable of reading his progressions. I don't know what to tell you. You ask what I'm seeing on tape, I've stated it numerous times already. The league is littered with excitng, big play making athletes at QB who fail at the NFL level because they have got by their entire careers by being a superior athlete and never had to be superior QBs.
There's a reason TEN let him go for a 7th. They literally took a loss on a young man who hasn't even reached year 3 with them.
We'll see how it plays out. My forecast, and I hope it's wrong, Willis will be nothing but a tease at best. You have to actually be able to play QB at a pro level to make it as a QB in the NFL. This young man is a runner with a big arm but he doesn't have the fundamentals of operating out of a pocket of most top college QBs much less an NFL QB.
Maybe he develops. That's the gamble the Packers are taking in hopes that they can teach him how to be an actual QB..That's also the gamble the Titans took when they spent a 3rd rounder on him in 2022 and decided he wasn't developing, and thought getting a 7th round pick for next years draft was a win for them.
Coldworld
August 26, 2024 at 07:26 pm
He was not good at all last preseason. He has a strong arm and can run (and does). The knock had always been accuracy and his ability to learn offenses and process progressions.
That said, he came into preseason and knocked it out of the park. Accurate and a passer rating of 108 I think, over a lot of snaps.
I think we keep Pratt on the PS, and our new signing h shows why: the potential flashes that could lead to a big jump over time. If Malik really has got that much better (or even half that) then Pratt may too.
Clifford went the wrong way unfortunately. He didn’t show consistent progress in any major facet of play. He’s likely out of the league. A shame for him, as he seems a good guy, but just not enough upside, youth or progression.
Swisch
August 26, 2024 at 08:03 pm
It seems as though Clifford was getting clobbered by the pass rush in this preseason.
If so, was this due to unimaginative play calling on the part of LaFleur or one of his assistants? In any case, LaFleur would have ultimate responsibility.
I realize offenses don't want to show their entire hand in the preseason, but it seems the LaFleur offense is diverse enough to have been able to show some creativity in these games.
Was there much in the may of motion and misdirection, or imaginative routes run downfield, or passing on early downs instead of mainly on third down?
***
I'm wondering if LaFleur gave either Clifford or Pratt much opportunity to thrive, or even survive, during this past preseason.
I'm not the keenest observer of such things, but my impression of the Packers offense of this past preseason kind of reminded me of Woody Hayes in the 1970s coaching Ohio State.
If I'm pretty much right, then it would seem really unfair for LaFleur to coddle Love during this past preseason but to overly expose his backup QBs to injury.
An offense in the preseason should at least be creative enough to protect all of the QBs who take the field, and to give them a good opportunity to succeed.
LambeauPlain
August 26, 2024 at 06:03 pm
Congratulations to the new #2!
I expect Pratt goes to the PS, or Clifford if Pratt gets signed to someone's 53...and I don't think he will now.
Oppy
August 26, 2024 at 06:31 pm
I'm really not sure he's the new #2.
Maybe I'm just hoping that he's not the new #2.
I don't like the tape. at all.
Bitternotsour
August 26, 2024 at 07:33 pm
You must be looking at a different highlight reel. That kid can play. My only issue is he went to Jerry Falwell U, which is a strike against him in my book.
Grandfathered
August 26, 2024 at 06:43 pm
DL is not cut and dried. I have Mosby making the initial 53
Packers0808
August 26, 2024 at 07:01 pm
Yup.
ImaPayne2
August 26, 2024 at 07:34 pm
Thanks Al. Looks good. Would not be shocked we bring a QB in, keep Pratt, adios Clifford.
Ditto Carlson. Adios Joseph, find another kicker then adios Carlson too..
ImaPayne2
August 26, 2024 at 07:51 pm
Thanks Al. Looks good. Would not be shocked we bring a QB in, keep Pratt, adios Clifford.
Ditto Carlson. Adios Joseph, find another kicker then adios Carlson too..
barutanseijin
August 26, 2024 at 09:00 pm
The Packers have traded a 2025 7th round pick for Titans QB Malik Willis. Apparently they’re cutting Clifford.
I’m surprised. I guess they were as unhappy as you guys with the backup situation.
stockholder
August 27, 2024 at 05:50 am
Just shows how bad he can be selecting picks in the later rounds.
(It's build them up then tear them down.)
Tom Brady never had a cannon.
But it just reaffirms my beliefs.
The packers will never win a super-Bowl under Gute.