Maggie’s Pre-Game Six Pack - 2024 Week 5
By MaggieLoney
The 2-2 Packers are on the road this week, traveling west to take on the 1-3 Los Angeles Rams. It will be Green Bay’s first game in the new SoFi Stadium, and the first road game against the Rams since 2018. Here are six things to keep in mind going into Sunday’s game.
1. Making a Point
Points haven’t been too hard to come by for the Packers this season, as Green Bay ranks sixth in the NFL in points for and is averaging 26 points per game. The Packers have won the last four games against the Rams (including postseason), with a combined point differential of plus-51. In each contest, Green Bay has scored at least 20 points. In fact, the Packers have scored at least 20 points in the last 12 regular-season games against the Rams.
Sunday’s contest will be the 100th meeting between the Packers and Rams (including postseason). The Packers hold a slight lead 50-47-2 in the series. Interestingly, when the Packers head west for the game, they’ll be trying to beat the Rams in California for the first time since December of 1966.
With Head Coach Matt LaFleur at the helm, the Packers are 42-20 against NFC teams, which ranks first in the NFC since 2019. Unfortunately, the Packers are 0-2 against the NFC to start this season, so they’ll look for a bounce back in Los Angeles on Sunday.
2. Turning It Around
Per the dope sheet, the Packers are 7-1 against the NFC West in the regular season since 2019 when LaFleur took over. That .875 winning percentage ranks first in the NFC and third in the NFL over that span. Worth noting, the Packers are also plus-eight in turnover differential against the NFC West in that timeframe.
The Packers lead the NFL in turnover differential this season, sitting at plus-six through four games. The defense is tied with the Vikings for a league-leading eight interceptions apiece. Safety Xavier McKinney has half of those for Green Bay with Jaire Alexander, Eric Wilson, and Evan Williams accounting for the other four.
Green Bay, Indianapolis, and San Francisco are all tied for the league lead in fumbles, too, with a plus-four differential in as many games. The Packers defense has forced three turnovers in each game so far this season. We’ll see if that trend can continue against the Rams who are minus-one in turnover differential on the season.
3. Indefensible Rams D
The Rams defense has struggled to start the season, ranking 31st in the league allowing an average of 28.8 points per game. Los Angeles is also 31st in yards allowed and dead last in the league in rushing yards, allowing an average of 165.5 yards on the ground per game. When it comes to third and fourth down defense, the Rams rank 30th and 31st, respectively, allowing conversions 50% of the time on third down and 100% of the time on fourth down. Safety John Johnson is the only Rams player with an interception this season, and only Byron Young has more than one sack this year.
That defense is going to be tested against a Packers offense that ranks in the top-10 in almost every meaningful offensive category. Green Bay is third in total yards per game (410), second in yards per play (6.36), second in rushing yards per game (174.5), and seventh in passing yards per game (235.5).
LaFleur is 4-0 vs Sean McVay and the Rams, while McVay’s lone victory against the Packers came before LaFleur’s tenure in Green Bay. Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula will have to figure out a game plan for stopping LaFleur’s explosive offense, which won’t come easy for a unit that’s only responsible for three turnovers all season.
4. No Kupp or Nacua
The Rams will be without their two best weapons on offense against the Packers. Puka Nacua remains on injured reserve while McVay has already ruled out Cooper Kupp for Sunday. Kupp still leads the team in receptions (18) despite only playing in two games this season. And Nacua’s absence is especially challenging after his breakout rookie season. Last year, he led the team with 105 receptions for 1,486 yards and six touchdowns. Kupp finished second on the team with 737 yards and five scores.
Quarterback Matt Stafford has only thrown two touchdowns with two interceptions through four games, posting a 68.5% completion percentage. He’s also taken 13 sacks behind a struggling offensive line. The Rams have given up 54 total pressures, which is tied for sixth most in the league. This is significant for a Packers pass rush that seemed to disappear against the Vikings in Week 4.
The Green Bay pass rush has certainly gotten home against the Rams in previous games. Kenny Clark has 4.5 sacks in five games against L.A. which is the second-most of any player dating back to 2018 (Nick Bosa has 6.5 sacks in 10 games). Rashan Gary has 2.5 sacks, a forced fumble, and seven quarterback hits in three games against the Rams. Preston Smith adds three sacks, six quarterback hits, and a fumble recovery in his five games against the Rams. And finally, Quay Walker posted a sack, a forced fumble, and two passes defensed in his rookie season against the Rams.
All of this sounds nice in theory, but it’s not going to matter if the Packers can’t bring pressure on Sunday. Devonte Wyatt is Green Bay’s leading rusher with three sacks through four games, and he’s likely to miss some extended time with an ankle injury. Here are the Pro Football Focus position rankings for Green Bay’s defensive line and edge rushers: Wyatt (66th of 123), Karl Brooks (68th of 123), Clark (99th of 123), T.J. Slaton (117th of 123), Smith (38th of 111), Lukas Van Ness (69th of 111), Kingsley Enagbare (74th of 111), Gary (79th of 111).
The Rams are 22nd in the league in points for, averaging 18.8 points per game. They rank 29th in passing touchdowns (2), 28th in rushing yards (353), and 26th in rushing yards per attempt (3.7). They’re also 28th in red zone offense, scoring a touchdown only 41.2% of the time. It’s time for Jeff Hafley to dial up some pressure on Sunday against a struggling Rams offense missing its two biggest stars.
5. Brotherly Love
Rams offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur is back for his second year with the team. When his older brother Matt comes to town on Sunday, it’ll be the eighth time the brothers have faced off in the NFL. Unfortunately for Matt, he’s 2-3 against his brother since taking over as head coach of the Packers, and 3-4 against him all-time.
The brothers haven’t always been rivals, though. In 2015 and 2016 they worked on the Falcons staff together with Matt coaching quarterbacks and Mike serving as an offensive assistant. 2017 is when the two parted ways and Matt headed to the Rams while Mike left for the 49ers. For reference, the brothers split the division games that year and went 1-1 against each other.
When Matt came to Green Bay in 2019, he had to face Mike and the 49ers twice that season, losing both in the regular season and in the NFC Championship Game. That dropped Matt’s record to 1-3 against Mike. In 2020, the Packers beat the 49ers in the regular season, and Matt climbed to 2-3 against his brother. In 2022, Mike took over as offensive coordinator of the Jets. That Jets team beat the Packers at Lambeau Field and Mike took a 4-2 lead in the sibling rivalry. Finally, Mike joined the Rams in 2023 as offensive coordinator, a position he holds today. Last season, Matt beat the Rams 20-3 and now sits at 3-4 all-time against his brother.
Matt will be looking to even the score on Sunday and tie things up at 4-4. Pretty cool that Matt was the Rams offensive coordinator in 2017 and it’s now a job his brother holds seven years later.
6. Reed ‘Em and Weep
A second-round pick in 2023, Jayden Reed had a solid rookie season. He finished the year playing in 16 games, posting 912 yards from scrimmage and 10 total touchdowns. Now only four games into the 2024 season, he’s on pace to blow those numbers out of the water.
Last season, Reed posted 119 rushing yards on 11 attempts and scored two touchdowns with six total first downs. In only four games this year, he’s rushed for 91 yards on six attempts with one touchdown and four first downs.
As a receiver, Reed finished the year with 64 receptions for 793 yards and eight touchdowns, averaging 49.6 yards per game with a catch percentage of 68.1%. He averaged 12.4 yards per catch. Through four games this season, Reed has 17 receptions for 336 yards with two touchdowns and a catch percentage of 77.3%. He’s also averaging 19.8 yards per reception this year. Reed has a new career long both in receptions (70 yards) and rushes (33 yards) already this season.
In 2024, Reed is on pace for 72 receptions, 1,428 receiving yards, 387 rushing yards, and 13 total touchdowns. The Packers haven’t had a 1,000-yard receiver since Davante Adams’ final season in Green Bay in 2021.
With Christian Watson out at least a few weeks with an ankle injury, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, and tight ends Tucker Kraft and Luke Musgrave should see an uptick in production alongside Reed. Doubs and Kraft are tied with 12 receptions apiece behind Reed, while Doubs has a slight edge with 169 yards. Wicks has a team-high three receiving touchdowns, but also has the lowest catch percentage by a wide margin at only 36.4%. The receiving core will be in for a big game on Sunday against a Rams secondary that’s struggled with miscommunication and penalties this season.
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Maggie Loney is a writer for Cheesehead TV and podcaster for Pack's What She Said. Find her on Bluesky at @MaggieJLoney.
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Comments (20)
Cheezehead72
October 04, 2024 at 06:17 am
This is a game where the Packers should win. I take the Packers to cover.
T7Steve
October 04, 2024 at 06:34 am
On paper Maggie makes a good case for the Packers this weekend. I'm sure she'd have needed a seven pack to compare these teams' penalties.
Let's not get paper cut.
Play clean hard football and get a win.
NickPerry
October 04, 2024 at 06:55 am
I'd like to see them get Doubs more involved, especially in the redzone where the Packers have been pretty bad this season. They are ranked 23rd in redzone offense at 46.67%... What's worse is they only score a TD once in the redzone 28.57% of the time on the road. Only Miami at 0.00% is worse.
If Rashon Gary looks like he has the last 4 weeks this coaching staff really needs to start thinking about sitting his ass down for a while. Whether it's just a few snaps or a lot of snaps in a game, SOMETHING needs to be done.
Lastly lets get Jacobs more involved. I heard something about him screwing up some protections last week and that's why Wilson was in during the 4th quarter so much. Whatever it was get him MORE involved. I'm looking for a BIG Jacobs against a BAD Rams rushing defense.
T7Steve
October 04, 2024 at 07:16 am
Don't have to pass protect if you run the ball. Shove Jacobs down their throats. Make the illusion of a pass and pass blocking and RUN THE BALL!
Minniman
October 04, 2024 at 06:58 pm
Re Jacobs:
I can't remember who, but one of the Packers WR's said a great quote when interviewed this offseason.
"the mantra inside the room is that you gotta block if you wanna see the rock"
Part of me likes that there's no exceptions to that creed being accommodated...... it also explains why he only saw 9 carries.
mrtundra
October 04, 2024 at 08:19 am
GO PACK, GO!!!
LeotisHarris
October 04, 2024 at 08:36 am
Fun read as always, Maggie. Nicely done with "Reed Em and Weep;" very clever!
This should be another game that moves Sean McVay one step closer to the broadcast booth. It'll be good to get a win to help ease the pain of the Brewers most untimely exit. Oof.
LambeauPlain
October 04, 2024 at 09:06 am
After the Badgers 2nd half futility, Packers 1st half floundering, and the Brewers 9th inning flop...I need some pain management too.
After the kid Myers pitches his best career game, back to back homers, Freddy comes in shuts the door in the 8th, here comes the Airbender. I truly believed the playoff demons had been extinguished.
Wow. Still in a funk.
Packer win would assuage my stingers. Beware the trap game! In the NFL when you think your opponent has no chance, they often surprise. No more surprises, please.
jannesbjornson
October 04, 2024 at 11:44 am
Have a Group Hug. I was hoping he would close with McGill, who has been hot. Now, another episode of Groundhog's Day...
LLCHESTY
October 04, 2024 at 02:16 pm
Given the injuries on the Rams offense McVay is doing a good job. Not hard to see them making a run when they get healthy. That defense is lacking talent though.
Coldworld
October 04, 2024 at 08:37 am
I think we will see a less rusty Love. I think the O will be fine. I want to see us improve in the red zone. I don’t want to see too many field goal attempts because we have, irrespective of Narveson’s struggles. That would be a very significant step forward at what I see as our biggest collective weakness thus far. An end to the pre-snap penalty glut would also be a big plus. Last week that declined sharply as the game progressed, let’s hope this week it’s gone.
I’m not het up by the Jacobs/Wilson snap debate, which I see as perhaps the silliest “drama” to date. I’m happy that Wilson has turned into a plus protector. That’s something a lot of folks were rightly worried about having after Jones and when Dillon got hurt. Moreover, Wilson can run. Jacobs is averaging 4.6 yards per carry. So is Wilson. It’s what you do on the field that matters and Wilson is performing on a near par with Jacobs. Thats a good thing, not a problem. I think both can up their YPC. This is a game to do it.
I expect to see Hafley come out far more aggressively. I’d like to think he learned from the first half last week, but the current Rams are sufficiently weak in their OL in front of a less mobile QB and are short of weapons at the skill positions. I expect the type of aggressive plan Hafley encouraged us to expect from him. I expect less vanilla from the DL as well as more blitzes
I also anticipate more tight coverage from corners (though I do not want to see Nixon on the perimeter for any reason other than last resort not a rare disguised coverage). I do want more Williams and Cooper: they need snaps as an investment for later and soon. Unfortunately it won’t tell us if he’s going to stick with that against the stronger opponents we need to beat. If I’m wrong about the significantly more assertive approach, I think I will definitely start to see Hafley, as he presented himself to us, as a fraud.
That should return our running game to relevance, which helps the OL as well as Love. If Musgrave is going to wake up, this is the week he should. With Watson out, it seems like an opportunity to increase his role and opportunities as a WR. Wicks will benefit most, especially if he catches, but Musgrave should also have opportunities.
If we can’t win these types of match ups on both sides of the ball, then we aren’t very good. No excuse for coming out flat after last week. They should be fired up after that.
T7Steve
October 04, 2024 at 09:10 am
MLF said that Jacobs missed a blitz pickup, so he thought he'd try Wilson for a while. The Vikings were dialing them up well. Then Wilson missed a bad one too. (this info per Spoff). It's not like there's any competition for #1 RB. They had to pass to try to catch up. Even took Jones a couple years to become reliable when he started out, but I don't think it will take Jacobs long to get up to speed. Different rust with a different QB.
Coldworld
October 04, 2024 at 09:48 am
I’m not so sure about Spoff’s info, that seems contested and wasn’t my a motivation for my point. No RB, including Jones is going to win every time. The fact is that they do it well. I am just happy we’ve found a second one who can run and do it well.
I don’t care who gets yards as I think they both will, so whomever is in we still have a run threat and decent protection. Thats what matters. I want to have them both healthy in the new year, not just now. More so in fact.
Trust play on the field, not origin. Go with production and don’t fight it—at any position. Not always our strong point as a team. Don’t anoint, allow them to earn as the season progresses. I don’t have any issue with Jacobs. I do think we are better behind RB1 this year, significantly, because Wilson can catch and protect, but also is a threat to break one.
Leatherhead
October 04, 2024 at 10:01 am
Preseason is over, we've taken the team for some test drives, the Beta-test is completed......I don't think you'll see a rusty Love or a misfiring offense in Los Angeles.
Of course, considering as how so many of our players and coaches are no good, it probably doesn't make any difference. :/
Seriously, I think the Packers are a Super Bowl contender, and this is a game we should win.
splitpea1
October 04, 2024 at 11:38 am
The forgotten man on this offense is Musgrave: 5 catches for 22 yards in 4 games. I'd like to start seeing him involved a little more with Watson out, but he didn't practice yesterday, so his status is uncertain. I know Kraft is now the preferred TE, but I'm surprised Musgrave's snap count has decreased so dramatically and his downfield abilities haven't been capitalized on more for whatever reason.
LLCHESTY
October 04, 2024 at 02:46 pm
Mr YAC needs a lot of growth before being versatile enough to be a consistent contributor. Right now playing him in the slot is the only place that makes sense and that's taking Reed off the field. Before TC I was hoping LaFleur would come up with some plays that would get Reed and Musgrave on the field together but Musgrave hasn't taken a step and until he does playing him more than a few snaps is just taking someone better off the field.
Coldworld
October 04, 2024 at 04:26 pm
If Reed were elsewhere, Melton has made a pretty good case for slot snaps when given the opportunity. I’m sure if Wicks is at X they will use Heath or Musgrave in the big slot role somewhat. Right now though, is Musgrave a better option than Sims in the 2 TE sets? LaFleur has clearly thought so to date, but I’m not so sure that’s been justified by results.
TXCHEESE
October 04, 2024 at 02:45 pm
i think Musgrave has been nicked up the last couple of weeks. Hopefully he can get back to full health and revitalize the dual TE threat.
Packers are the better team. I fully expect them to come out fast and hard after last week, and take control early. Would be wonderful if Malik was able to play a large portion of the 4th qtr. I would love nothing more than to plant the retirement seed in Stafford's head.
LLCHESTY
October 04, 2024 at 02:55 pm
I agree with Mike Wahle that this is a get well game and if it's not we have to readjust where this team is and where it can go this year. The Rams are well coached but talent deficient. The only way I see them keeping it close is if they can get some big runs on the middle of the Packers D. Which is possible of course, but if they've been focused on it this week they should be able to limit the big gouges.
elizastone
October 05, 2024 at 01:36 am
"Great read! Romeo Doubs has been an exciting player to watch, so I hope everything's all good with him missing practice. The Packers need all the firepower they can get! Speaking of being thankful for players stepping up, I just wanted to mention how much I appreciate services like Sendwishonline.com for letting us send personalized thank you eCards. Perfect for sending a quick thanks to friends or fellow fans after a game! Looking forward to seeing Doubs back in action soon. Go Pack Go!"