Maggie’s Pre-Game Six Pack - 2024 Week 16
By MaggieLoney
The 10-4 Green Bay Packers are home this week to wrap up a four-game prime-time stretch versus the 5-9 New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football. With only three games left in the regular season, the Packers benefit from hosting two out of three at Lambeau Field. Here are six things to keep in mind going into the Monday night showdown.
1. Parading into the Backfield
Green Bay’s pass rush heated up at Lumen Field, registering seven sacks against Seattle on Sunday Night Football. J.J. Enagbare, a fifth-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, led the charge with two sacks on his own while Edgerrin Cooper, Brenton Cox, Rashan Gary, Karl Brooks, and Devonte Wyatt all joined the fun with one each.
It’s a welcomed sight from a pass rush that’s struggled to generate pressure against opposing quarterbacks for much of the season. With Preston Smith being traded to Pittsburgh before the deadline, Green Bay needed to see increased production out of its young players. Gary leads the team with 6.5 sacks (he’s registered four in the last five games), followed by Enagbare now with 4.5. Former first-round pick Lukas Van Ness has three sacks this season along with Cox who has only been active for five games this year, which makes his numbers all the more impressive.
The Packers have 40 sacks on the year which is good for seventh in the league. On the flip side, Saints quarterbacks have been sacked 28 times. With Derek Carr dealing with a left hand injury, his status is up in the air for Monday night. If he can’t go, Spencer Rattler will get the start in his place. Rattler has been sacked a whopping 14 times, half of the Saints’ total, in only four games, though Washington failed to register a sack against him last week. Pro Football Focus considers Saints center Erik McCoy the best in the NFL with an elite grade of 93.4, but the rest of the line has its struggles, primarily at both tackle spots. The Packers should be able to build off the pass rush momentum they established last week again on Monday night under the lights.
2. Ten out of Ten
Jordan Love continued his streak of mistake-free football on Sunday night, extending to four games without an interception. This is also the fourth straight game the Packers have scored 30-plus points.
For Love, it was the second time this season he’s posted a passer rating above 120.0, this time earning a 123.8 against the Seahawks. Unsurprisingly, five of his six best passer ratings of the season have come in the last five weeks, with the lone outlier the Cardinals victory in mid-October. He’s posted a passer rating above 107.0 in each of his last five games and has only taken four sacks in that span. Coming out of the bye, Love has thrown eight touchdowns with only one pick.
While the Saints defense has 13 interceptions on the year, they’ve only snagged one turnover in the last four weeks. With an offense at full strength that could be adding tight end Luke Musgrave sooner rather than later, this should be another strong performance from Love and company in prime-time.
3. Coop There it Is
The rookie inside linebacker won his second NFC Defensive Player of the Week award this week for his performance against Seattle, and it was well-deserved. In his return to game action, Cooper registered five tackles with two for a loss, two passes defensed, a sack, and an interception. As things stand currently, Quay Walker is being considered week-to-week with an ankle injury. That means Green Bay will need Cooper to continue his dominant play in the middle of the defense.
In 11 games for the Packers, Cooper is fourth on the team in passes defensed with four, and fourth on the team in sacks with 3.5. He’s also fourth, go figure, in quarterback hits with six, and is tied for second on the team with seven tackles for loss.
It’s early, but it certainly seems the Packers found their star middle linebacker in the second-round pick. Cooper ranks eighth out of 83 qualifying inside linebackers per PFF metrics with a grade of 77.0. He boasts an elite 89.8 pass rush grade and a stout coverage grade of 76.9. He’s Green Bay’s second-highest graded defender on the team behind only Xavier McKinney. It’s time for Cooper to become an every-down player on defense.
4. The Kamara the Merrier
Saints running back Alvin Kamara suffered a groin injury on Sunday against the Commanders, and it sounds like the injury is more significant than the team originally thought. He’s yet to practice this week and seems doubtful for Monday Night Football. His loss would be a significant blow for a Saints offense that’s been decimated by injuries this season. Receivers Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Bub Means are already on injured reserve, though Olave has been designated to return. In fact, Kamara is New Orleans’ top receiver this year with 543 receiving yards. No other player has surpassed 400, a mark Olave set in his eight games before going on IR.
Kamara was the lead back in New Orleans by a wide margin. He posted 950 rushing yards and averaged 4.2 yards per attempt with six rushing scores. Tight end Taysom Hill was second on the team with 278 rushing yards and six scores, but he’s also out for the season with an injury. That leaves only Kendre Miller (130 yards) and familiar face Jamaal Williams (129 yards) as options in the run game going into Monday night. Both backs have one touchdown this season and neither has over 35 rushing attempts on the year.
Another recognizable name, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, is in line as the Saints’ top receiver going into Monday night if Olave can’t go, and he’s also on the injury report with a chest injury. It’s a banged up offense that won’t be even remotely close to full strength in prime-time. There’s a reason the Packers are almost two-touchdown favorites heading into the matchup.
5. Put a Bow on It
As was mentioned previously, this is Green Bay’s final prime-time game of the regular season, and the fourth in a four-game prime-time gauntlet. The last prime-time game the Packers played before this stretch was all the way back in Week 1 on Friday night versus the Eagles in Brazil.
This is the first and only Monday night contest for the Packers, all the way in Week 16. Per the dope sheet, this is the 32nd straight season (1993-2024) that the Packers will play on Monday Night Football. It’s the longest streak in the entire history of Monday Night Football.
This is also the latest Monday Night Football game ever played at Lambeau Field. Per the dope sheet, this is just the fourth Monday Night Football game ever in the month of December at home for the Packers. For what it’s worth, Green Bay won the other three.
In Green Bay’s four other prime-time games this season, the Packers put up an average of 30 points per game and averaged 367.3 total yards of offense. The defense also had seven takeaways in that stretch.
6. Lock It Up
The Packers can officially clinch a playoff spot this week, and the path to getting into the postseason is simple. Win on Monday night. That’s it. Green Bay enters Week 16 in a win-and-in scenario.
Green Bay can technically clinch a playoff spot even before taking the field on Monday, but that would require a couple of different outcomes. First, the 7-7 Falcons would need to lose or tie. Then, either the 8-6 Seahawks or the 8-6 Rams would need to lose or tie. But the Seahawks do host the Vikings on Sunday, so the Packers may be okay controlling their own destiny and rooting for Seattle to upset their division rival.
Looking around the rest of the NFC, the Lions travel to Chicago to take on the Bears, and the Eagles travel to the Commanders. Depending how comfortable you are with Green Bay’s chances of winning out and keeping in front of Washington in the playoff seeding, you can either root for the Commanders to take down the Eagles, or root for the Eagles to keep stacking victories in the hopes that they steal the No. 1 seed from Detroit. That would also require the Bears to, you know, win on Sunday, which is asking a lot.
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Maggie Loney is a writer for Cheesehead TV and podcaster for Pack's What She Said. Find her on Bluesky at @MaggieJLoney.
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Comments (31)
T7Steve
December 20, 2024 at 07:33 am
"a pass rush that’s struggled to generate pressure against opposing quarterbacks"
I think they haven't got the sack #s but they've put allot of pressure on QBs. This # has also been skewed because they were facing so many QBs that were running threats and were victims of this in the past.
This Saints D will be a good test all around for the Packers. If the D can keep the Saint O on the sideline it's a perfect tune-up opportunity to get the rough spots ironed out before the Vikings game and the Playoffs.
Can't bring myself to root for the Bears, so will a tie help? At least it would hurt both teams draft standing.
GregC
December 20, 2024 at 07:41 am
Monday Night Football at Lambeau Field! I'm looking forward to it.
Packers are favored by 14 points, which seems a little high considering that the Saints have a decent defense.
The Packers defense is 8th in sacks. When I look at team sack totals, I'm surprised how bunched up they are. If the Packers had five more sacks, they would be tied for 2nd, and if they had six fewer sacks, they would be 17th.
This hasn't been a fun year for Packer individual stats. I know it doesn't matter, but stats are fun, and there is not a lot of fun to be had in the stat columns aside from Josh Jacobs being third in rushing yards and Xavier McKinney being tied for first in interceptions. Jordan Love missed a couple games and threw a lot of early interceptions, and now that he is rolling, he is part of a balanced offense, so he is not putting up big numbers. That's fine. It just isn't much fun to look at in the stat columns. Our leading receiver, Jayden Reed, is 35th in yardage, and our leading sacker, Rashan Gary, is tied for 36th.
T7Steve
December 20, 2024 at 07:49 am
You forgot to list where the Packers rank in special teams, "Stat Boy". I don't know how far they've moved since they fixed the place-kicking problem but at least I'm not fearful every time one of the units goes on the field. Remember when punt returns were the most worrisome?
GregC
December 20, 2024 at 08:41 am
Special teams rankings are one of those garbage stats where they feed a bunch of stats into a formula. There's a guy from a Dallas newspaper who does that at the end of the season. We seem to have a rally good punter, but his stats are right around the middle. Our kicker has made all of his extra points and only missed one field goal, but I don't want to think about that.
T7Steve
December 20, 2024 at 09:05 am
Thanks.
All I know is that we aren't fighting to be last place there anymore. All three phases are playing complimentary to each other and when one is down it mostly gets supported by one of the others. Thus 10-4 winning season and this team is still improving because it's almost all youngsters.
LambeauPlain
December 20, 2024 at 11:09 am
Whelan is a stud punter. He can boom them, but he is sublime placing his punts inside the 10. And I appreciate his resilience. After his mis-hit last Sunday with a 33 yarder...his very next punt was a field flipper with a sky high long punt at the 5 yard line.
He has made McManus's welcome to Green Bay an uneventful one as well. The FG operation has been solidified with Whelan's great hands and placement. McManus needs to stay too...hope he does.
PatrickGB
December 20, 2024 at 07:43 am
Loved the layout of the article!
mrtundra
December 20, 2024 at 08:11 am
Rattle Rattler and RTFB!!! GO PACK, GO!!!
PackEyedOptimist
December 20, 2024 at 09:11 am
This would be a fun game for MarShawn Lloyd to come back, since he and Spencer Rattler played together at South Carolina in 2022.
BruceC1960
December 20, 2024 at 04:50 pm
Didn’t realize Marshawn played for both USCs. Cocks and Trojans. Gotta be a joke in there somewhere?
Leatherhead
December 20, 2024 at 04:59 pm
"That's what"
----She----
Bitternotsour
December 20, 2024 at 09:51 am
Everything that's wrong with analytics and in particular PFF is right here in this article. The Saints center is the number one rated center on a line that has given up 40 sacks. Josh Myers is the lowest rated center by PFF (I'm told - I don't read or pay attention to their numbers) on a line that has allowed 16 sacks and leads the NFL. What exactly is wrong with the picture.
How is it that we have so many mediocre performers individually and such a team of the moment reputation nationally. It's a mystery.
GregC
December 20, 2024 at 10:24 am
To be fair, the center is only 1/5 of the O-line and is the least important one in pass protection. Also, these grades are based on both run blocking and pass protection. This could allow for a big disparity between your center's overall ranking vs. the quality of your O-line's pass protection.
I share your skepticism about the PFF grades however.
Bitternotsour
December 20, 2024 at 11:23 am
We'll have to disagree on this one, the center is the most important, he calls the protections and is the hub of communication.
GregC
December 20, 2024 at 11:40 am
Those are essential things, but they are pretty routine. That's why centers are the lowest paid O-linemen, just below the guards.
On average, right tackles make about double the amount of interior O-linemen, and left tackles make more than three times as much. There would not be such a disparity in pay if the tackles weren't more important. This is also why tackles are often drafted early in the first round, while centers are not.
Leatherhead
December 20, 2024 at 05:27 pm
All that's true, but the biggest reason for the disparity is supply/demand. You need 1 center, but 2 guards. Often, one of the guards is a backup center.
Secondly, Centers are not frequently signed to a second deal. Think about it. You have a guy for 4 years. That means that only about 1/4 of the teams, in any given year, are looking to the draft or FA. That means you're in a small group.
And since most Centers are on a rookie deal, they're not going to have the high average salary of either tackle spot.
I would caution against thinking that Centers are less important because they're paid less. There are other considerations.
GregC
December 20, 2024 at 05:39 pm
So do centers have shorter careers than other O-linemen? Seems to me like the better centers stay in the league for quite a long time, just like any kind of linemen. If centers have shorter careers, my point still holds though, because it means they are easily replaceable with younger, less experienced players, whereas the best OTs have skills that are not so easy to replace--at least not without using a very high draft pick and spending a lot of money on their replacement.
Oppy
December 20, 2024 at 06:21 pm
"And since most Centers are on a rookie deal"
Well, here's the problem, half of all (starting) Centers are not on a rookie deal.
16 NFL starting C's are on 2nd-3rd contracts.
I have a feeling this is pretty typical of all positions in the NFL, since the average NFL career is shorter than the average rookie contract length.. and that's because most players fail to stick in the NFL. Then teams draft a new crop of young players to see if they develop into a long-term players or not.
LLCHESTY
December 20, 2024 at 09:10 pm
I wasn't going to bother to look up all the numbers but of the top 10 centers 7 are past their rookie deals and I'm sure the Chiefs are going to resign Humphrey. They're usually the least athletic lineman of the 5 which probably is why they don't get paid as much. Also the top guards are getting paid a lot more than they used to in relation to tackles. It probably has to do with defenses going away from the run stuffing giants and having two athletic DTs on the field on most snaps.
It's one reason I think the Packers MO of drafting tackles to play guard is outdated. Playing guard requires a different set of skills and mindset and there's plenty of athletic guards in the draft these days. Last year there were a half a dozen guards in the draft that met the Packers athletic thresholds and played with a bit of nasty. I'm not saying abandon drafting tackle types altogether but pick a true guard once in awhile. They'd probably have better luck with up the middle runs. This year they've been lucky that Jacobs has been so damn good at making the 1st guy miss and gaining yards after contact. It's truly amazing how good he has been this year.
Oppy
December 20, 2024 at 05:19 pm
You can be a great communicator and understand the calls... and still be a marginal blocker.
While I do think Meyers is a better pass protector than a run blocker, he's an atrocious run blocker and a only slightly-better-than-average pass blocker.
A lot gets masked in the run game because we run zone blocking concepts and that means Meyers is generally getting guard help on the double team on the LOS.
Line play in general is a unit approach. There is quite a lot you can do with the interior to help 'pull up the britches' of a player on the inside of the line - there is almost always help. Plus, since nearly all pass pro keys are inside out- that also means that any leaks through Meyers are going to have the added protection of being the top priority of any running back, H-back, TE, etc who has pass-pro duties - either exclusively or before leaking out.
Meyer's ain't it.
LLCHESTY
December 20, 2024 at 09:42 pm
I don't think Myers has been as good pass blocking as he has other years but maybe that's due to his wrist injury although I do think he was pretty bad at the start of the season as well. It's pretty simple really, if they are going to run more than they have in the past they need to be better inside.
Leatherhead
December 20, 2024 at 05:03 pm
Center is traditionally the 2nd most important player on the line, behind LT. He handles the ball on every play, he calls out blocking assignments, etc. In Green Bay's scheme, he's a second level blocker on a lot of plays. Myers is part of the reason that Love is pressured and sacked so infrequently.
I don't think you have a good line if your Center is poor. That's a contradiction that I can't resolve. Either our line isn't good or Myers isn't that bad. Choose what you'd like to believe. I know what the coaches believe.
Oppy
December 20, 2024 at 05:31 pm
Our line is absolutely over-rated, but I still think they are good.
Meyers is a placeholder at center. Overall, he isn't a liability, but that's more a testament to the players around him than his own ability.
If the Packers aren't looking to upgrade at Center at some point and they resign him.. something is wrong.
He's probably the weakest starting C the Packers have trotted out in 20+ years, maybe longer.
*exception: possibly Jeff Saturday.. Legendary all-pro Center, but he was past his expiration date when the Packers signed him as a stop-gap.
Oppy
December 20, 2024 at 05:40 pm
I just had to do a quick once-over the all-time roster..
I'm going to say this: There's only (2) Centers who have held a starting position for the Packers over the last 35 years (going back to 1989) who are worse than Meyers.
1) Jeff Saturday (again, HOF Caliber career, but he was washed for the one season he played for the Packers)
2) Lucas Patrick
It should be noted, both of these players played a single season.
I almost included Evan Deitrich-Smith, but honestly, I think he was a better C than Meyers.
Maybe I've got it wrong and the Packers stick with Meyers long term beyond his rookie contract, but I don't see it. I think he's been 'good enough' to get by with, and the Packers have had other more pressing roles to restock over the last 4 years, but they've got to be looking at upgrade at C.
LLCHESTY
December 20, 2024 at 09:22 pm
Wahle made a great point this week when he said they need one more guy that removes players from the LOS. It's also a credit to LaFleur that the run game has worked as well it has. Someone wrote an article that he got really inventive when Willis was starting and they kept some things that worked. But give DCs a year to figure it out and it will be tougher.
If they want to continue to be a slightly run heavy team(52%) they're going to need better inside blocking and hopefully Lloyd is healthy and gives them a strong outside runner as well. Lloyd might not be Gibbs but Jacobs is better than Montgomery.
Bitternotsour
December 20, 2024 at 11:15 pm
so the success is despite their personnel. got it. leading the league in fewest sacks allowed and they're doing it essentially with 3 competent linemen and some dudes from a pick-up game.
Leatherhead
December 21, 2024 at 01:45 am
I'm glad to see you've cracked the code on this. This is the 3/5 of a line theory that Coldworld has been promoting since the Philly game. All that we've accomplished this year has been with a fraction of an offensive line.
It doesn't make sense to me, either, but they're willing to die on that hill.
Oppy
December 21, 2024 at 08:44 pm
Something to consider about the total sacks given up...
Only the Eagles have fewer passing downs on the season than the Green Bay Packers in 2024. Less passing downs = less opportunity to be sacked..
Packers OL allows pressure on the QB on 21.3% of all dropbacks, good for 13th in the league (13th best).. So just outside of the top 1/3. (Best in league is 14.7%)
Packers QBs have been hit 40 times.. 12th most in the NFL.. despite having the second lowest passing snaps. (Lowest in league is 18..!)
Interestingly, in the above two stats (Pressure %, hits..) the team that is lowest in league in both cases is Tampa Bay. Packers have 16 sacks and 40 hits, that's a total of 56 times the OL allowed pressure to physically get to the QB. For Tampa, it's 33 sacks and 18 hits, that's a total of 51 times they allowed pressure to physically get to the QB.. But Tampa has run 70 more passing plays than the Packers.
I bring that last tidbit up because it also shows how just looking at total sacks doesn't tell the whole story about effective OL play.. Tampa has almost double the total sacks allowed than Green Bay, but when looking at the amount of times the Packers have allowed their QB to get hit compared it Tampa, it becomes clear that the QB's ability to escape sacks is a bigger factor than the OL's ability to keep defenders out of the backfield in this case.
Also, technically a side note, the Bills have given up the least sacks in the NFL, not the Packers. Packers are 2nd. They've (The Bills) run 30 or so more passing plays than the Packers and given up 3 fewer sacks.
At the end of the day, my point being is there's context to all of this data, and just throwing out the total number of Sacks, while a very popular stat used by media and fans to asses OL play, does not remotely tell the entire story. Packers OL is probably better than average, but just outside the top third of the league. They are not, IMO, great, and there is plenty of room for improvement. The weakest link IMO is Meyers, although I'm not entirely sold on Sean Rhyan either - he's a very good run blocker but not so sharp in pass pro.
Advanced Passing > Pressure
.pro-football-reference.com/years/2024/advanced.htm
canadapacker
December 20, 2024 at 10:48 am
Just lock up the wild card - dont care about trying to win the Division - it is an unlikely scenario and we should not risk the health of any banged up players to try to get there. Hopefully that scenario will be done by the other teams before it impacts our final 2 games. I am sure that our preference is for Phillie to get the bye and for us to play any of the other teams - and that includes the Lions ( how many times does a division rival win all 3 games in a season?). We did ii in the playoffs last year and even came close in San Fran - we will take another step forward this year.
LambeauPlain
December 20, 2024 at 11:17 am
More good writing, Maggie! I enjoy your articles.
Coop, There It Is! "It’s time for Cooper to become an every-down player on defense."
Yes it is. It is past time for the timing of The Edge to play full-time.
Get The Edge in the middle, and when Quay returns play him at Will or Sam and turn him loose.
LLCHESTY
December 20, 2024 at 09:29 pm
"Get The Edge in the middle, and when Quay returns play him at Will or Sam and turn him loose."
That's funny because Hafley said that won't be happening this year in his presser today. He said switching between the two is harder than people think and he has enough on his plate.