Maggie’s Pre-Game Six Pack - 2024 Week 15

The 9-4 Packers travel west to Seattle for the third of four straight primetime games to take on the 8-5 Seahawks on Sunday Night Football. Per the dope sheet, this is the first time the Packers have played four straight primetime games in a single season since the merger. It’s also one of two final away games for Green Bay during the regular season. Here are six things to keep in mind going into Sunday night. 

1. A Streak of Their Own

The Packers entered last Thursday’s matchup with Detroit on a three-game win streak. It was the second three-plus win streak for Green Bay this season, with the first coming in Weeks 5-8. Unfortunately, both streaks ended at the hands of Detroit. 

Per the dope sheet, this will be the third consecutive week that Green Bay will face an opponent on a win streak of three-plus. The Seahawks have won four straight, including three wins against NFC West teams to keep them in the driver’s seat within the division. With a win on Sunday night, Seattle’s playoff odds would increase to 84%, yet with a loss, the Seahawks still have a 56% chance to make the postseason, which remains the highest odds in the NFC West. 

As it stands, Seattle is the most-likely candidate for the third seed in the NFC. The Packers, on the other hand, have a 95% chance to make the playoffs even with a loss, and their most likely landing spot is currently the sixth seed. That means we could see a Sunday Night Football rematch as early as Wild Card Weekend. 

2. The Wild Wild West

The Packers are 3-0 against the rest of the NFC West this year, and per the dope sheet, Green Bay, Buffalo, and Detroit are the only teams in the league to be 3-0 against the NFC West this season. The Packers have finished 4-0 against the NFC West only twice (2009 and 2021) since 2002. 

Also per the dope sheet, Head Coach Matt LaFleur is 10-1 against the NFC West during the regular season, which is the most wins any team outside of the division has against the NFC West since 2019. LaFleur’s one loss, of course, came against the 49ers during his first season as head coach. 

The Packers have won 10 consecutive regular-season games against NFC West opponents, per the dope sheet, which is tied for the second-longest winning streak against a division since 2002 (12-game winning streak vs. NFC North from 2010-12).

Against the NFC West in the postseason, LaFleur is 2-3, with wins coming against Seattle and Los Angeles, and all three losses taking place at the hands of the 49ers. Interestingly, including postseason, the home team between the Packers and Seahawks has won the last 10 matchups. The last road victory for either team was a Green Bay victory all the way back in 2008. And also worth noting, the Packers are 12-0 (including playoffs) when scoring 25-plus points against the Seahawks. 

3. I Love the Smith(s)

Kudos if you get the reference for this one. We needed some way to talk about both quarterbacks, and 500 Days of Summer delivered. 

Love has started two Sunday Night Football games in his career. In each, he’s thrown three passing touchdowns with zero interceptions, and he has passer ratings of 118.6 and 125.3. The Packers were 2-0 in those games (27-19 vs. the Chiefs and 33-10 vs. the Vikings). 

In his last four games, Love has thrown six touchdowns with only one interception. He also has one rushing touchdown in that span. His passer rating is 115.4 and he’s averaging 226 yards per game. He’s only taken four sacks in that timeframe. 

In Smith’s last four games (and Seattle’s four-game win streak), he’s thrown three touchdowns to two interceptions, but he’s second in the NFL in passing yards with 3,474 behind only Joe Burrow (3,706). He’s also rushed for one touchdown himself, too. Unlike Love, though, Smith has been sacked 12 times in the last four games, and he’s fumbled three times. In fact, Smith has fumbled seven times this season. 

While Seattle ranks third in passing yards and fifth in passing attempts, they’re 26th in passing touchdowns with 14. The offense had also given the ball away in five straight contests before last Sunday’s matchup against Arizona. If the Packers want to force a turnover on Sunday night, Smith will be the primary focal point. 

4. Second String Secondary

It’s still early, so it’s possible Jaire Alexander, Evan Williams, and Javon Bullard are all able to play in primetime, but there’s also a realistic chance none of the three are able to suit up. It sounds promising that at least Alexander will be able to go, though, as he’s been a full participant in practice this week. Williams has been limited in practice, and Bullard is the only DNP on the roster. The Packers lost both Williams (concussion) and Bullard (ankle) against the Lions and had to throw some unlikely candidates into the starting lineup. For example, special teams ace Zayne Anderson played 53 defensive snaps versus Detroit. Before that game, he had eight total defensive snaps in his career. 

This also likely shifts Keisean Nixon back into the slot with Carrington Valentine and Eric Stokes operating as Green Bay’s boundary corners. Using Pro Football Focus metrics, Nixon grades out at 67.2, or 48th out of 118 qualifying cornerbacks. Valentine is 97th (53.9) and Stokes is 99th (53.2). That’s a far cry from Alexander’s 75.2 (11th overall).

Nixon has played in all 13 games for the Packers, starting 11, and has one interception with six passes defensed and two forced fumbles. He’s also registered two sacks. He’s played well enough this season to qualify as one of Green Bay’s best-five in the secondary. 

Valentine has two pass breakups and Stokes has yet to register one this season. It’s a duo that, should they be called into action again on Sunday Night Football, will be tested by the tandem of D.K. Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. 

5. Battle-Tested Tandems

Speaking of Metcalf and Smith-Njigba, the duo has combined for 1,723 receiving yards and eight touchdowns this season. While Tyler Lockett is also in the mix with 511 receiving yards and two scores, the passing offense really funnels through Metcalf and Smith-Njigba. 

Another tandem the Packers may need to prepare for on Sunday night is Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet. Walker and Charbonnet have combined for 942 rushing yards this season and 16 total touchdowns, with seven rushing scores and one receiving score apiece. 

Walker missed last week’s game against the Cardinals with a calf injury, and he's been a DNP in practice all week this week, so his status for Sunday is up in the air. Somehow in Walker’s absence, though, it was Seattle’s best game of the season on the ground. The Seahawks posted 176 rushing yards which was their first game in four weeks eclipsing the 100-yard metric. Charbonnet had 134 of those yards and two touchdowns himself. 

While Walker and Charbonnet have the ability to put up big yardage at any point, the Seattle ground game has struggled to get rolling for much of this season. The unit ranks 27th in total rushing yards and 24th in yards per attempt, averaging only 4.1 yards per carry. 

The Packers defense has done well against the run in recent weeks, giving up only 44 rushing yards to the 49ers and 39 rushing yards to the Dolphins. The Lions duo of Montgomery and Gibbs was largely held in check on the ground last week too, combining for 94 rushing yards themselves. On the year, Green Bay’s defense ranks ninth in rushing yards, 10th in rushing touchdowns allowed, and seventh in rushing yards per attempt, allowing an average of 4.1 yards per carry. Eliminating one of the tandems will go a long way towards making Seattle’s offense one-dimensional on Sunday. 

6. The North Remembers

When the Seahawks host the Packers on Sunday, it will start a three-game stretch against NFC North opponents. After the Packers, Seattle stays home to host the Vikings next week before traveling to Chicago to take on the Bears in Week 17. 

The Lions handed the Seahawks their first loss of the season back in Week 4 when Seattle was surging on a three-game win streak, losing 42-29. It was Seattle’s highest offensive output of the season, putting up a whopping 516 yards in the loss. 

The Packers, as we know, are 1-3 against the NFC North this season. The Vikings also have a two-game lead over Green Bay in the standings, which is why it’s most likely at this point that the Vikings earn the fifth seed and the Packers claim the sixth seed in the playoffs. 

Still, anything can happen with four games to go, as the Packers still have to play the Vikings and Bears once, too. The Vikings and Bears will face off for the second time this season on Monday Night Football before the Vikings start what is arguably the toughest three-game stretch of their season to end the year, traveling to Seattle, hosting the Packers, and finishing the regular season at Ford Field. Those are three teams with a combined 29-10 record. 

If the Packers want to make up ground and possibly steal the fifth seed away from Minnesota, they’ll need to win out down the stretch, starting on Sunday Night Football at Lumen Field.

 

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Maggie Loney is a writer for Cheesehead TV and podcaster for Pack's What She Said. Find her on Bluesky at @MaggieJLoney.

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Comments (5)

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GregC's picture

December 13, 2024 at 10:06 am

I'm liking the Packers' improved run defense lately. It wasn't enough to stop the Lions, who torched them through the air, but it will be a big help if they can hold the Seahawks' running game in check. With Xavier McKinney limiting deep shots and hopefully Jaire Alexander helping on the edge, the middle of the field may be under attack again. The Packers need to stop this. How about tipping some passes and turning them into interceptions?

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LLCHESTY's picture

December 13, 2024 at 09:50 pm

Had to go and jinx Jaire didn't you? Dammit Greg! 😉

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LeotisHarris's picture

December 13, 2024 at 10:31 am

Even though Pete Carroll and his world-class masseters no longer roam the sidelines of whatever they want to call their little noise hole of a stadium (Lumnen? *snort*), and even though all the players are different on both teams, I still experience unpleasant feelings when we play in Seattle. It's a winnable game. Packer wins on Sunday nights make for restful sleep.

No onside kicks, please. GPG

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Spock's picture

December 13, 2024 at 10:50 am

Carroll is the kind of guy who masticates in front of other people. I'll never forget his "Victory Dancing" in the game that shall not be named. Hate that arsehole. Yeah, he's gone but never like the Pack playing in the "12th idiots" stadium.

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Leatherhead's picture

December 13, 2024 at 10:59 am

We've scored 30 in three straight games, so that's good.
We generally don't play our best on the West Coast, and that's bad.
We've won three of our last four, so that's good
Seattle has won four in a row, so that's bad.

Seattle doesn't have a particularly good offense. The one thing they do a lot of is throw: They're 5th in attempts and 3rd in yards, but they don't have many TDs to show for it. Close to the goalline, they like to run it. They're average-to-below average in the redzone. Defensively, it's kind of the same story. They don't do much really well, but they aren't really bad at anything, either. They actually profile about the same as Green Bay does, and they're a little bit better in redzone defense.

By the data, Green Bay is a better team. It will depend on whether we protect Love and Love protects the ball. We're a pretty good team when we don't turn it over (3-0). We've only had multiple turnovers twice this season, once in a loss and once in a narrow win over the Texans. We're 5-3 in one turnover games, and 8-3 in games with one or zero turnovers, We're also 8-2 in games where we go over 100 yards on the ground. We're also 8-2 when we throw for 260 yards OR LESS.

To me, this paints a picture of the Packers offense taking care of business and protecting the ball, and Seattle not really being able to stop or keep up on the other end. If we don't beat ourselves.

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