Packers Draft: How Much Pressure Is On Ted Thompson?
By jasonperone
With the 2016 NFL draft just days away, the Green Bay Packers have likely done most of their work to prepare for the nine opportunities (currently) that they'll have to add new players to the roster. The Packers have a long history of relying very heavily on the draft to infuse talent and it begs the question of how much pressure is on general manager Ted Thompson and his scouting team to hit on most of this year's picks. Both sides of the coin have been argued since the Packers season ended in overtime in Arizona back in January.
The popular "window of opportunity" argument gets made with every passing season and as quarterback Aaron Rodgers edges another year towards the end of his career. To those who are waving that flag, there is quite of bit of pressure on Thompson to ensure that the Packers have more to show for having had one of the best quarterbacks in the game for several years than just one Super Bowl championship. Many of those fans who agree with that line of thinking are also quick to point out how disappointing it was that the Packers only won one ring after 16 years of Brett Favre.
On the other hand, there are those who argue that the Packers already have quite a bit of talent on their roster and don't really have any position of dire need right now. In that case, Thompson & Co. can truly afford to take the best player available on the board and not be tempted to marry that along with need to decide their pick. It would be ridiculous for the Packers not to address any of their positions that lack depth at some point during the draft, but if we go with this school of thought, the Packers should land some very quality players in the first few rounds.
Some would say that it's blasphemy to think that this Packers team doesn't have major needs and they absolutely have to nail their first few picks. With the loss of B.J. Raji and Casey Hayward, for example, they lost some quality guys on defense and need to fill those holes. Mike Pennel will also miss time serving a suspension. Raji's departure has many concerned because he proved to be a staple on the team's defense and the defensive line already had some questions at the bottom of the depth chart. Letroy Guion is the only one on the roster currently suited to play the nose and Datone Jones is going to spend some time at the elephant end position, which means they'll need a body to fill a spot on the line at times. While neither Raji nor Jones have been stellar, it's not as easy as plug-and-play to fill their roles.
Others would argue that the defense can survive until Pennel gets back and that the Packers need only get a good part time or developmental player who can contribute later in the season. They look to last year and use Jake Ryan as an example of a player who can become a regular contributor with some patience and development. Speaking of inside linebacker, that still seems to be the consensus top need for this year's Packers. The more I look at the team, I'm not sure I agree to the point where it's a linebacker in round one or bust. Inside 'backers aren't necessarily the type that garner first-round consideration unless there is a sure-fire guy available. Is Reggie Ragland or Darron Lee that guy? It only takes one team to think so and they're off the board. Besides Ryan, the Packers are getting Sam Barrington back. Barrington went into last year as a starter before being lost in the first week. The Packers like Barrington and Ryan and seem to want to get Clay Matthews back outside. So does that make finding an inside linebacker the linchpin to this draft for Green Bay?
There are other areas of need, such as offensive line, outside linebacker and defensive back to consider as well. As this discussion moves along, it would appear that the Packers, while still carrying one of the more solid rosters in the league, have some work to do this next weekend to solidify what they'll go into 2016 with. Their goal continues to be not just a division title and home-field advantage in the postseason, but another trophy in the case. So how much does this draft determine how good the Packers' odds are of rising to the top of the NFC and competing for a championship?
That will vary from one to the other but in my estimation, there isn't an immense amount of pressure on Thompson. I say that from the relative sense that some GM's and teams are being counted on to find their quarterback of the future or replace an All-Pro player who left in free agency and remain competitive. The issue for the Packers always seems to be health and the depth to carry them through injuries. There's no doubt that there will be injuries again in 2016, it's just the nature of football. What the Packers have behind their starters is going to play a big role in their ability to weather those losses. Creating depth and building more of the pipeline for the future is the key in this draft. With the potential departure of some key pieces next year, guys like Josh Sitton, T.J. Lang, David Bakhtiari, and Micah Hyde, for example, the Packers are now and will be faced with plugging those holes.
As of right now, they have nine chances to do just that. The question is, how vital is it that Thompson and the Packers have a stellar draft?
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Jason is a freelance writer on staff since 2012 and also co-hosts Cheesehead TV Live, Pulse of the Pack and Pack A Day podcasts. You can follow him on Twitter here
Comments (45)
NickPerry
April 25, 2016 at 06:15 am
I feel it's imperative Thompson has a good draft. IMO, OLB, DL, OL, and ILB, the 4 biggest areas of needs the Packers have with WR, RB, and TE all a close 5th. Because Thompson pretty much ignores Free Agency, the Draft is the Packers only avenue used to improve it's obvious he MUST hit on more of his picks than other teams. Several of us were upset TT didn't use FA a little more this year. Just thnk how much easier this draft might be had he added in Cook AND a player like Knighton or Freeman for the DL or ILB positions. IMO that's the reason it's imperative Ted has to have a good draft. If Thompson had another draft like he had in 2011 or 2012, the Packers would be in a lot of trouble by next year.
I also wouldn't be surprised if this is Teds last season in Green Bay. He's denied the personel who work for him the chances to advance in their positions and set the Packers up for the future. I think this is the Packers last season of doing things "Teds Way" and hopefully he rides off holding another Lombardi.
John30856
April 25, 2016 at 02:19 pm
He usually has a good to superb draft so what's the problem?
barutanseijin
April 25, 2016 at 03:26 pm
Like 2011 & 2012?
D-wing
April 25, 2016 at 08:28 pm
I think the keyword there was "usually".
NickPerry
April 25, 2016 at 06:47 pm
Well josh John30856, considering Raji is gone, Pennel suspended, Peppers, Lang, Perry, Sitton, Bahkatieri, Hyde, Tretter, Lacy, Jones, Cook, and Barclay are in the final year of their contracts and ALL of those that are starters won't be retained or will retired, I say have a draft like 2011 or 2012 would be ONE HELL OF A PROBLEM!
PS...He doesn't always have a suburb drafts. He's had good drafts the last 3 years, Hell 2013 he got Bahkatieri, Lacy, Hyde, and Barrington but the rest are Jag at best. Some might argue at least 2 or 3 of the 4 I mentioned are JAG's as well.
2014's draft is teetering too, we'll all know more after this season. Maybe that's the "Best" all GM's do, I'd have to do research but Ted always has extra picks because he won't sign an URFA who wasn't cut. He's had 19 picks those 2 years, I'd wish for nmore than they got before calling that suburb!
Rodgers has always masked the weak spots he's so good. I've maintained this offseason last year was an anomoly and Rodgers comes back with a vengence in 2016. If by the smallest chance he doesn't, you'll see "What's the Problem".
Amanofthenorth
April 25, 2016 at 06:23 am
There is approximately 14.7 lbs. per square inch upon TT
dobber
April 25, 2016 at 07:32 am
...only at sea level. There's a little less pressure on him in GB.
Christopher Gennaro
April 25, 2016 at 04:22 pm
so at mountain level he is floating then? also great comment almost spilled my drink. cheers
RCPackerFan
April 25, 2016 at 06:32 am
The top needs going into this year are DL and LB. DL right now is the biggest need. With Raji retiring, Jones moving to Elephant End, Pennel suspended for 4 games. Right now the DL is the top need.
LB, they need an ILB. They really need a guy that can play all 3 downs and that can cover. IF they play Mathews more inside then they have a bigger need for OLB, but right now the need is greater inside, especially with the talks of Mathews playing more outside.
Other positions they could use more depth at are RB, TE, OL, CB, S.
Looking past this year, the positions they will need to try and find starters for are OLB, OL, RB, TE.
A lot of conversation lately has been that the Packers need to draft OL high because they will have a big need there next year. While I agree that they will have need there, I find it highly unlikely they lose 4 OL, and lose Bakhtiari especially. Thompson doesn't let his young good players leave very often.
I think looking past this year OLB will be the biggest need. They will likely be or could be losing Peppers, Perry, Elliott, and Datone Jones. I don't think all of them will be leaving, but I could see 2 of them for sure. Also the team still hasn't resigned Mike Neal. So that adds another spot open for an OLB.
When adding up future needs with immediate need and breaking them down into tiers of need they need:
Tier 1 - DL, OLB, ILB,
Tier 2 - OL, RB, TE,
Tier 3 - CB, S, WR
Thompson, needs to have a good draft for this year and next couple of years.
dobber
April 25, 2016 at 07:40 am
I've actually come to believe that in terms of actual NEED, CB is a bigger issue at this point than ILB. They've got a developing player at ILB (Ryan), a starter coming back from injury (Barrington), and a very good player who will spend some time on the inside (CMIII). They've shown they can get by with that.
What they haven't shown is whether they can effectively replace the 900+ defensive snaps played by Casey Hayward last season. I wouldn't be surprised if the Packers go CB with one of their picks on Friday and don't touch the ILB position until Saturday.
RCPackerFan
April 25, 2016 at 07:59 am
I politely disagree.
CB they are replacing Hayward with Rollins. They have Randall and Shields as the outside players. They also have Gunter in the mix as well. Also if they need another slot CB they have Hyde. Don't forget to they must feel really good about Robertson-Daniel since they promoted him to the 53 over Mitchell Henry who they really liked an at the time had a bigger need at TE then CB.
I do think they need to draft another slot CB, but I think adding a 3 down ILB would benefit the defense more then a 4th CB.
croatpackfan
April 25, 2016 at 09:13 am
I do not share your concern with Casey departure. I liked Casey, but he was just another slot corner (DB) and he was danger for Packers playing outside. He had 5 TDs last year which are exclusively his responsibility other teams scored... Not a good record...
John30856
April 25, 2016 at 02:21 pm
sheesh, if they are deep at a position its CB
dobber
April 25, 2016 at 02:54 pm
One of the things that they got from Hayward (aside from experience) was that ability to play on the outside. We agree, I think, that he was better inside and underneath than on the boundary, but he played a significant number of snaps out there. They don't get that from Hyde and likely not from Rollins, and the UDFAs are untested.
My argument is that when Shields/Randall miss time (Shields has not played a full season in his career) they need someone who has a good chance of stepping in and being serviceable on the outside. Right now they have two CB who have shown they can play on the outside. They better feel really good about Rollins, Gunter and Daniel and their ability to contribute out there (keeping in mind that Gunter is slow and Daniel hasn't been active on game day).
CB is one of the money positions on an NFL roster...you get thin there, and life gets tough.
jeremyjjbrown
April 25, 2016 at 07:56 am
If there is extra pressure on Thompson he's put it in himself by doing so little outside the draft. Bringing in Cook removes a little bit. Although I bet Thompson feels the importance if this years draft is exactly the same with or without Cook.
RCPackerFan
April 25, 2016 at 08:26 am
I think the real pressure is created from previous draft misses.
For example if they don't miss on Jerel Worthy, or Khyri Thornton it puts less pressure on redrafting for those positions in the future. Which then leads to more pressure in finding those players in free agency.
lebowski
April 25, 2016 at 10:03 am
Thornton and Worthy,… I just threw up a little
RCPackerFan
April 25, 2016 at 10:13 am
2 of Thompson's top 4 worst picks.
dobber
April 25, 2016 at 12:16 pm
I haven't given up on Ringo. I have a hunch we'll hear from him, yet.
NickPerry
April 25, 2016 at 06:52 pm
I hope so dobbler, I hope so. Call me wierd but TT 6th round picks SUCK. Well at least since 2010 when he picked Starks. Now if Ringo was a 4th or 5th I'd say we have something.
Thegreatreynoldo
April 26, 2016 at 01:18 am
I like Ringo. I was surprised that he did not contribute towards the end of last year. His tape was very intriguing.
Razer
April 25, 2016 at 06:59 am
Draft and develop team - every draft is big pressure. Given that we are all hearing Rodger's clock ticking, the time to recover from bad drafts just isn't there.
I am hoping the draft lays out in a manner where some real talent comes to our spot. Other than a couple of reaches, teams seem to be better at managing their picks. Let's hope enough mistakes are made in front of us to give us what we need.
dobber
April 25, 2016 at 07:37 am
You hit the key idea in that first statement: Thursday-Saturday set the tone for the next 3-4 years. That's what's going to decide whether the Packers will be forced to scramble to fill holes for the next 2-3 drafts.
My Dad was a dairy farmer and he used to say that farming was the ultimate gamble: every time you plant a crop, every time you buy an animal, you're gambling that they're going to turn out and keep you moving forward. If you miss badly, you might get by on insurance or reserves for a year, but it will cost you eventually. The draft is the same kind of thing.
croatpackfan
April 25, 2016 at 09:16 am
Very wise dad... So, players are like cows or pigs (maybe chickens?) and corn or wheat...
Amanofthenorth
April 26, 2016 at 12:35 am
Players may be like cows, but no player is or ever was like cow
EdsLaces
April 25, 2016 at 08:05 am
Big Guy round one! Unless you get Lee somehow ...hold n off on that mlb till day 2. Billings/Cravens. Butler/D.Jones. Or a combination of the 2 sounds fan-fn-tastic.
ray nichkee
April 25, 2016 at 08:12 am
I'm with jason here.
I will not be surprised if it goes like this:
DL, ILB, OL and DB for the future, and pass rusher. The order may be mixed up a bit but DL round 1 and heavy on these five positions. I say DB and pass rusher because if TT likes a player Capers will find a way to use him and depth is needed.
justabob
April 25, 2016 at 08:18 am
After 11 drafts TT has shown what I believe are some tendencies. Nothing set in stone but rather a set of preferences.
First his BAP includes a positional weighting system. He seems to have three tiers of weighting, first level being OL,DL, because big men are hard to find. The second being WR, DB-S, and then moves to LB, RB,TE.
Odds are during the draft, its more than likely first round will be (yes there are exceptions especially in the first) will be DL,OL second round will follow a and so on giving the fourth tier again at OL/DL.
The second tendency is that upon completion of the draft there should be on at least one player drafted at each level on each side of the ball. extra picks beyond six will be specialist, position of need or backup QB.
The things that disturb this are a highly rated player of wrong position or less need dropping to really low round in which he will trade up and then make sure he trades back to get enough picks to fill each tier level on each side of the ball.
In this draft class it seems tier one OL/DL leans heavily to DL, so unless their is a huge run on DL or a player TT has rated really high drops expect a DL to be first round pick.
Remember its just preference not a set in stone policy but it is where he starts. grades on the board already reflect the positional bias so he can really boast taking BPA.
Yes I expect to see a WR in the seventh
RCPackerFan
April 25, 2016 at 09:01 am
Thompson definitely has some tendencies.
Some of the tendencies that i have picked up on, is almost every draft he will draft at least 1 OL, DL, and DB. He likes to go front 7 of defense in the first round, WR or DB in the 2nd round, and look for the middle rounds for him to take an OL.
He has had 11-1st round picks. 6 of those 11 picks he has taken front 7 of defense.
He has never drafted a RB, WR, or TE in the first round.
He has had 15- 2nd round picks. Of those 15 2nd round picks he has drafted 5 WR's, 4 DB's.
In 8 of his 11 drafts, he has take an OL in the 4th or 5th round. So I expect them to take one there again. With 3- 4th round picks I would expect an OL in the 4th.
TarynsEyes
April 25, 2016 at 08:54 am
There is very little pressure on Thompson if any at all. As most have already deemed the schedule to merit a 12-4 record or better based on the assumption of its ease, than the pressure has been eliminated by the mere acceptance of entrance to the playoffs and the standard of success being met by many easily placated fans but perhaps also those who have voice in the hire/fire of Thompson have become as sedate, since the fans are content and have adopted the standard excuse list sheet with denial of having to many inferior or grade C and less players cheered for their lacking play regardless of blame.
Thompson is secure until he says no more. I am all in on the draft and develop but the targeted players have either been taken by others or the wrong ones are being overly heralded come draft time...or aren't being or are incapable of being coached up to needed growth.
egbertsouse
April 25, 2016 at 09:47 am
There is no pressure on TT. The Packers made a boatload of money last year and that is all that matters to Murphy and the BOD. Winning is just frosting on the cake.
egbertsouse
April 25, 2016 at 09:47 am
There is no pressure on TT. The Packers made a boatload of money last year and that is all that matters to Murphy and the BOD. Winning is just frosting on the cake.
lebowski
April 25, 2016 at 10:05 am
I didn't know Kate Upton cared about the Packers
John30856
April 25, 2016 at 02:23 pm
That is one of the stupidest statements I have heard from a supposed Packer fan in years
DrealynWilliams
April 25, 2016 at 10:00 am
I think there's some pressure on TT this draft -- this season. The type of pressure that will lead to a firing? Nahhh. But MM throwing outs hints (I'd like to think they were slight jabs) post-season can't be good. It has to be frustrating to sit back and think about the NFC representatives in the SB for the past 5 seasons. Should have been there 2 - 3 more times, maybe? Think back to those key plays that didn't go our way or plays that weren't made in those Playoff losses.
WKUPackFan
April 25, 2016 at 11:03 am
The "AR ticking clock" should not produce extra pressure. TT's job is to build a competitive team every year. That requires long-term planning, even into the post AR era. TT will not, and should not, sacrifice future seasons with outrageous FA signings or trades, trying to win a championship in any one year.
marpag1
April 25, 2016 at 11:34 am
If you want to gauge the value of a draft, think of it like this...
2010 - won SB
2011 - lost divisional round
2012 - lost divisional round
2013 - lost wild card
2014 - lost conf. champ. (OT)
2015 - lost divisional round (OT)
It is generally acknowledged that the Packers whiffed in the 2011 & 2012 drafts. The only real players from those 2 drafts are Cobb and Daniels and Hayward.
So how important were those drafts? If TT had nailed even one of those two years, or done pretty good in both of them... how many Superbowls would the Packers have won in the past five years?
Easier said than done, of course, and the Packers do it better than most. But the reason the Packers are a little iffy right now is 2011 and 2012 drafts.
NickPerry
April 26, 2016 at 05:47 am
^^^^ THIS, THIS, THIS ^^^^ marpag1 couldn't be MORE Right.
WKUPackFan
April 25, 2016 at 11:47 am
Slightly off topic: Regarding Tyler Higbee, several posters over the past week stated very critical comments regarding Higbee's recent arrest. Someone even said he committed a hate crime. Here is a more complete version of the story.
The "victim" followed Higbee and his girlfriend from one Bowling Green, KY nightclub to another. At the second establishment the "victim" continued to harass the lady, shoving her at one point according to Higbee's attorney. The "victim" also has two DUI arrests and has been booked into the Warren County Kentucky jail five (5) times. Also, Higbee did not intentionally evade authorities or resist arrest. He simply left the scene and cooperated fully with the cops when approached.
Never believe anything contained in police report.
dobber
April 25, 2016 at 12:21 pm
I had heard similar things, but I think his draft position will take a hit because of this. Could work in the Packers favor. I like him better than Jerrell Adams.
WKUPackFan
April 25, 2016 at 07:36 pm
Yes dobber, I'm afraid it will. I was going to let the negative comments slide, but having had personal experience with the Bowling Green police I did some research to try and find out what actually happened. The good news is (perhaps bad news from the Packers perspective) that the story does not seem to have a lot of legs.
Also, I hate to see players demonized because of an arrest without checking into the underlying facts. Fortunately, most folks here at CHTV are willing to wait for the complete story before forming opinions.
Thegreatreynoldo
April 26, 2016 at 06:11 am
WKU, my only interest in Higbee is whether GB should draft the guy. I am not interested in demonizing him, sanitizing him, or prejudging him. I checked; here is the only comment I made that I can find:
Thegreatreynoldo says:
April 19, 2016 at 07:13 am(edit)
Drealyn - I had Higbee as a 3rd but more likely a 4th rounder before his 2nd degree assault arrest, with a possible hate crime enhancer to come. Now Higbee is a 7th round flyer - at best - to me.
So far Higbee hasn't been charged with a hate crime enhancer, but it is not unusual for such a charge to come later. I based the POSSIBLE hate crime enhancer phrase I used on the following:
A second witness "observed Alsaleh on his phone and 2 white males were arguing with him." The witness "said that one of the white males began saying racial slurs towards Alsaleh such as '(expletive) ISIS' and 'White Power' and something like, 'This isn't your (Alsaleh's) country.' "
At the jail, Higbee told police "that he did not make any racial slurs. Higbee then stated that after he hit Alsaleh he stated, 'Watch out Haji.' Higbee advised he made no other racial slurs toward Alsaleh."
I don't believe everything written in a police report. I've disproved statements police wrote in their reports several times. I've disproved things written and said by attorneys so many times that I've not only lost count but also deem those assertions to be pretty much worthless. The only new information of which I am aware is that the guy who Higbee admits that he punched was admitted to a hospital with a brain hemorrhage in an unresponsive condition, was discharged 10 days later. I knew that the guy Higbee punched was not a pillar of the community, having been arrested quite a few times for DUI, hit and run - property, and other alcohol-related incidents. Also, I can find by googling for 45 minutes no evidence other than Higbee's mouthpiece that he did not try to evade the police (subject ran away from the scene according to one witness, and tried to hide behind a line of trees according to police) or that Higbee fully cooperated (police say that Higbee initially denied having been in an altercation but the officer arrested him after noticing a cut and blood on Higbee's right hand).
Now, I'd love to wait for the legal process to unfold, so as to not prejudge Higbee, but the draft starts on April 28, and Higbee's initial appearance isn't until May 5, and his trial, if there is one, probably won't happen until 2017. Judgment has to be made in terms of whether to draft Higbee this week. I can only use google to form an opinion - not as to whether Higbee is guilty of anything but whether GB should draft him - and I find no reason to change my opinion that Higbee is worth at best a 7th round flyer. You are local; if there is more local coverage that sheds more light on this incident, I'd like to read it. I imagine TT will investigate.
http://www.bgdailynews.com/news/police-alleged-victim-in-higbee-altercat...
dobber
April 25, 2016 at 12:25 pm
I'm guessing many of you have seen this. An interesting read...
http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2016/story/_/id/15304231/green-bay-packers-s...
...but the teams that rank highest also tend to be the younger teams in the league on a regular basis.
Since'61
April 25, 2016 at 02:24 pm
TT is not under pressure in terms of his job but his role is still to field the best team possible. TT is at the point where he can walk away whenever he likes since it seems the Packers have established their succession plans. Besides that we won't know for 2-3 seasons, at least, if this draft is a successful one or not. By that time TT will probably be retired. Thanks, Since 61
WKUPackFan
April 25, 2016 at 08:00 pm
What is the cost to make you go away? I'm sure you can be be bought off and will gladly contribute to the cause in order to rid CHTV of the contagion. I'm thinking the price of a box of ex-lax is appropriate.