Could the Packers End Up In Draft Purgatory, Or Does It Not Matter?

To tank or not to tank, that is the question. 

So you’re saying there’s a chance. Yes, the Green Bay Packers are still alive for a playoff berth. As my colleague Wendell pointed out earlier this week, the Packers have a chance, albeit slim, at making the playoffs for the 31st time in franchise history. In order to do so, they will need to win their last four games – vs. the Rams, at the Dolphins, vs. the Vikings, and vs. the Lions – and get some help from the other teams that are “loitering,” as ESPN put it. 

There is surely a chance that the Packers win out, but still miss the playoffs for the first time under head coach Matt LaFleur. With 14 teams making the playoffs, if the Packers finish the season with a five-game winning streak, they would probably pick anywhere from 14 to 17. They are currently slated to have the 14th overall selection in the 2023 NFL Draft, but there are seven other teams that have a 5-8 record – the Raiders, Panthers, Falcons, Jaguars, Browns (their 1st round pick goes to the Texans via the DeShaun Watson trade), and Steelers. The Colts are 4-8-1 and are slated to pick 7th, while the Cardinals, Saints (their 1st round pick goes to the Eagles after New Orleans traded up for wide receiver Chris Olave in last year’s draft), and Rams (their 1st round pick goes to the Lions due to the Matthew Stafford trade) are all 4-9 and currently sitting at 6th, 5th, and 4th, respectively. 

Therefore, the 14th overall selection and the 4th overall selection are separated by one game, but is the talent gap between those picks that significant? Conventional wisdom would tell you that there is a talent gap, but let’s take a look at the last five years to see. (Obviously this is not a perfect exercise because, among other reasons, teams may draft for need at their respective position, rather than draft for best available, but it is a worthwhile exercise nonetheless.)

2022 NFL Draft

4) CB Sauce Gardner

5) DE Kayvon Thibodeaux

6) OT Ikem Ekwonu

7) OT Evan Neal

8) WR Drake London 

9) OT Charles Cross

10) WR Garett Wilson

11) WR Chris Olave

12) WR Jameson Williams

13) DT Jordan Davis 

14) S Jordan Hamilton

2021

4) TE Kyle Pitts

5) WR Ja’Marr Chase

6) WR Jaylen Waddle

7) OT Penei Sewell 

8) CB Jaycee Horn

9) CB Patrick Surtain

10) WR Devonta Smith

11) QB Justin Fields

12) EDGE Micah Parsons

13) OL Rashawn Slater

14) OL Alijah Vera-Tucker

2020

4) OT Andrew Thomas

5) QB Tua Tagovailoa

6) QB Justin Herbert 

7) DT Derrick Brown 

8) LB Isaiah Simmons 

9) CB CJ Henderson

10) OT Jedrick Wills Jr.

11) OT Mekhi Becton

12) WR Henry Ruggs

13) OT Tristan Wirfs

14) DT Javon Kinlaw 

… 

22) WR Justin Jefferson

53) QB Jalen Hurts

2019

4) DE Clelin Ferrell

5) LB Devin White

6) QB Daniel Jones

7) LB Josh Allen

8) TE T.J. Hockenson

9) DT Ed Oliver

10) LB Devin Bush Jr.

11) OG Jonah Williams

12) LB Rashan Gary

13) DT Christian Wilkins

14) OG Chris Lindstrom

… 

19) DT Jeffery Simmons

36) WR Deebo Samuel

… 

44) OL Elgton Jenkins

2018

4) CB Denzel Ward

5) DE Bradley Chubb

6) OG Quenton Nelson

7) QB Josh Allen 

8) LB Roquan Smith

9) OT Mike McGlinchey

10) QB Josh Rosen

11) S Minkah Fitzpatrick

12) DT Vita Vea

13) DT Daron Payne

14) DE Marcus Davenport 

… 

18) CB Jaire Alexander

32) QB Lamar Jackson

The draft is an inexact science and, to a greater extent, a crap shoot. On paper, you would obviously prefer to be in the top 10 or better and thus avoid being in draft “purgatory,” meaning picks 13 to 17, but does it really matter? As you can see above, there is talent up and down the draft board and the same rings true beyond the last five NFL Drafts. For instance, future Hall of Fame players Aaron Donald and JJ Watt were both selected outside of the top 10. Thus, it comes down, in a way, to scouting, the general manager’s eye for identifying talent and, frankly, getting lucky. Either way, for those that want the Packers to tank: a) it might not do any good at the end of the day, and b) Brian Gutekunst has no interest in doing so. “I think it’s a culture thing. I think winning is a culture thing. I don’t think we ever roll out there on a Sunday, Monday, or Thursday, without the intention of winning.”

Herm Edwards once famously said, “you play to win the game.” And the Packers should do just that for the remainder of the season, draft positioning be damned, and then the pressure lies on Gutekunst and his staff to identify and scout talent in order to get the Packers back on track to competing for a Lombardi Trophy. 

 

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__________________________

Rex is a lifelong Packers fan but was sick of the cold, so he moved to the heart of Cowboys country. Follow him on Twitter (@Sheild92) and Instagram (@rex.sheild). 

__________________________

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3 points
 

Comments (42)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
canadapacker's picture

December 16, 2022 at 11:27 am

It doesnt matter and as your list points out - it just doesnt matter unless a team is in real need of a franchise QB - and if one looks at all the high end QB failures over the past few years - and we have one visiting us on Monday night. It doesnt matter. Our last really high pick was AJ Hawk and in looking at that draft - he was a pretty good pick - considering the final results of other members of that class. Everyone always says take the best player available - and that might be true - unless there is a draft class that is according to those so- called draft experts heavy to one position or another. I think that no matter where we pick we need to pick the best tight end available and unless there is some sort of tackling machine inside lineback - ie a Parson type close by. BTW no matter who you pick - nobody is a saviour - ie has Pitts saved Atlanta from the tight end or would Chase or Waddle been better - same as us = would Rousseau been better than Stokes.
Right now it is looking like maybe - just maybe Gute is going to be a hero if Love turns out to be the next guy
That is why I hope that after we beat the Rams on Monday - that we lose in Miami and give Love a chance to show what he's got against Minnie and the Lions - even if they are just playing out the string.

4 points
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Starrbrite's picture

December 16, 2022 at 04:53 pm

A very well reasoned comment—and I agree with you.
You make your best choice and cross your fingers.

2 points
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Coldworld's picture

December 16, 2022 at 11:37 am

To the extent that we aren’t very good, and have no cap and holes, it matters. We either need a shot at a premium pick to help Rodgers or to help the reload either directly or via trading back for more pick volume. The reality is that we have a lot of needs: TE, S, DL, to name a few where a higher pick could make a significant difference.

If there was a point, a coherent basis for winning a few more and thus weakening the pick, that would be one thing, but this year there really isn’t, regardless of who will be QB. Moreover, we are going to be highly dependent on the draft, the more options in every round from an earlier pick only help that.

5 points
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stockholder's picture

December 16, 2022 at 11:45 am

The best rd will be the second. The next step is TE, S, DL. But We need to score points. Take the guy that blows up a Defense.

0 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

December 16, 2022 at 01:52 pm

Get at minimum, two picks in the second round. A WR and a TE. They need a solid OT. We don't know the comp picks at the moment, or the Trades Gutedkunst will not make to bring in another playmaker. They will sit on the 5 gal. pail, sipping Dr MucGillicuddy, another five years, as long as the Fans show up with the cash. They made their play, extending Savage; now they will be eating more CAP for a guy afraid to tackle, or cover.

-1 points
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PackyCheese500's picture

December 16, 2022 at 02:09 pm

Is there something wrong with Yosh and Tom?

1 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

December 16, 2022 at 03:24 pm

Watch the film.

1 points
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stockholder's picture

December 17, 2022 at 05:35 am

I see something more wrong with paying Bahk. He will never return to his All-pro status.
We don't want another Spriggs. Seems like the development of Tom and Nijman gives us hope.
The better move might be just to cut Bahk and pay Jenkins.

1 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

December 17, 2022 at 10:20 am

Should have the OT from last draft. Now, they are in the hamster wheel. They will probably refi Bhak and hope for the best. Franchise Jenkins and they still are over loaded on CAP. Bring in another OT by rd three.

0 points
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stockholder's picture

December 17, 2022 at 05:43 am

The OTs have short arms and project to being a Guard. We don't want another Spriggs. Or as you might remember Mandrich.

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jannes bjornson's picture

December 17, 2022 at 10:41 am

Only the Ted Show would have moved up to add a fraud like Spriggs. Another let's transition a TE to OT fantasy.
Harrison from the Sooners. Bergeron a Bulaga clone from Syracuse.

0 points
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Coldworld's picture

December 16, 2022 at 03:29 pm

Stock, we know our best round isn’t the third. That’s putting an awful lot on the second. I would see your point if we could parlay a higher first for additional picks, including a second.

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stockholder's picture

December 17, 2022 at 05:40 am

Gutey always comes up with HIS guy in the 3rd. When he learns to take what the draft gives him.
He'll hit on the 3rd. That means a guy who Fills a need and had a very good college career.

0 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

December 17, 2022 at 10:45 am

The third round is usually the easiest for a GM to secure a player. Let the other scouts make the pick.

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canadapacker's picture

December 16, 2022 at 12:57 pm

Before you go on and on about losing more games to get the higher pick - analyze the last few drafts and see who came out big time and who was a JAG - The point is that no matter where we are - one player or another will not matter if you dont do the proper scouting - look at the Raiders took Ruggs ( and he was not performing whilst playing and is now out DUI) versus Jefferson Jeudy or CD Lamb. Many good guys will be there and some duds - get the good guy in the correct position and we took Stokes - he played well not great last year - but what would have Patrick Queen done inside for us. Draft after the fact is 20-20 to tanking is idiotic especially if you cant put together a team and pick the correct players - how many years have the Jets and Jags and Browns been fumbling around. And we have a few holes - TE ILB and probably another Dback ( one who is willing to tackle) but other than that - bring along pieces ie OL , special teamers

4 points
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Starrbrite's picture

December 16, 2022 at 04:56 pm

Could not have said it better Canada—excellent!!

0 points
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Leatherhead's picture

December 16, 2022 at 08:15 pm

We're going to need a lot of guys if we cut players to get under the cap. I don't think that any ONE guy is going to make a difference, so I'm thinking we should be trading down and adding more picks.

0 points
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canadapacker's picture

December 16, 2022 at 09:46 pm

What is the average turnover in players from year to year. Usually 12 to 14 of the 53 - plus the practice squad. We will be probably turning over 5 or 6 vets only - guys like Cobb Lewis Crosby Lowry Amos and maybe not bring back Lazard or a few others - and redoing some other contracts - but what are the list of other guys - other than the bottom end guys who may not make the cuts after the new drafted and free agent guys come in. I am sure they will kick the can down the road like they always do and re-up guys like Jenkins and maybe Tonyon and Reed and Leavitt - ( which wont break the bank)

0 points
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stockholder's picture

December 16, 2022 at 11:39 am

I have No Faith in Gutey. The concern should be putting Points on the board now.

-6 points
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Starrbrite's picture

December 16, 2022 at 04:59 pm

I don’t believe Guty’s the trouble. It’s Murp and his his unorthodox management structure.

2 points
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TarynsEyes's picture

December 16, 2022 at 11:58 am

The better the draft selection position, the development process takes less time, which is important if Love is the QB, since he has already been sitting 3 years.

I believe Rodgers will be back for next year only and better draft picks will ease the salary cap somewhat with the veteran dump that needs or will be forced to be performed.

Naturally, the FO has to convince Love to sit another year, or convince Rodgers to agree to a trade or to retire. Good luck with that happening.

10 points
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splitpea1's picture

December 16, 2022 at 12:33 pm

The only times in recent memory the Packers could be accused to "tanking" on the field (not to be confused with giving your highly-drafted younger players more snaps in order to better prepare for the future) are the final games of the 2017 and 2018 season vs. Detroit. And I was stupid enough to watch them both.

It would be an encouraging sign if the Packers were to "finish strong" with younger players like Love, Wyatt, and Toure. But if you're continue to trot out Rodgers, Lowry, and Cobb, or others who may not be with the team next season, then there's really no long-term significance in doing so, even if the team ends up with a more respectable record.

Trying to predict what Gute will do draft-wise is an exercise in futility. But the only player he should even consider moving up for is a stud TE prospect like Mayer. Otherwise, trading down seems like an appealing option to add another quality piece at either edge, safety, or WR. There shouldn't be any temptation to tank unless you're vying for a top QB prospect.

7 points
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PatrickGB's picture

December 16, 2022 at 12:48 pm

One good thing about being higher in the draft order is the fact that it applies to every round. It’s more than just the first round. The vast majority of a team’s personal come from later rounds.

12 points
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crayzpackfan's picture

December 16, 2022 at 01:40 pm

Very true Patrick

1 points
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dobber's picture

December 16, 2022 at 01:04 pm

"Herm Edwards once famously said, “you play to win the game.”"

Who was it who said, "it's hard to lose your way into winning"?

4 points
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GregC's picture

December 16, 2022 at 04:43 pm

I don't know, but it's a much better quote.

0 points
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jhtobias's picture

December 16, 2022 at 02:08 pm

Wont matter as long as Joe Berry is the defensive coordinator . This man has single handedly ruined the franchise and maxe dom capers look like Buddy Ryan .

Lets not lafluer gute or murphy off the hook they hired him they still keep him employed.

These 3 stoges will down in packer history as worse than the tony mandarich pick.

Bunch of soft losers

-1 points
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nygary's picture

December 16, 2022 at 02:46 pm

It shouldn't be about tanking or not. We should play our future now and hope they play well enough to win. Love should start and all of our young players should get a lot of reps. I just think Rodgers has to much power and MLF and the front office allow it. The team has no chance to win a super bowl with him it's time to move him and move on.

6 points
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ricky's picture

December 16, 2022 at 05:12 pm

The draft is, indeed, a crap shoot. Take a look at the QB's that were taken the last few years. There were teams that traded multiple picks to move up to get "their guy", only to find that it was fool's gold. Look at SF. They traded three firsts and a third to get Trey Lance. And found they were just fine, first with Garoppolo, and now with Purdy. Chicago spent several draft picks to move up one slot and get their guy (Mitch Trubisky). So, earlier draft slots gives you more choices. But if those choices don't pan out (Josh Rosen), and then Kyler Murray for Arizona pop to mind, it simply means you're choosing the wrong guy earlier than later.

1 points
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Starrbrite's picture

December 16, 2022 at 05:18 pm

I for one deplore any thought or suggestion a team or player at ANY level should “tank”.
IMO, “tanking” suggests, fraud, scandal, cheating, deception, payoff.
What legitimate competitor would give the green light to “tanking?”
There are many here who are/were players and coaches at various levels of competition.
Shame on you if you would consider this an appropriate solution.

3 points
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Coldworld's picture

December 16, 2022 at 05:24 pm

Tanking in the sense of planning with the primary objective to lose is definitely not something to support. Using the time to test personnel and combinations one thinks might add value in future is different. After all, if the tanking conversation is happening, there are obviously opportunities for improvement over what went before.

3 points
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GregC's picture

December 16, 2022 at 06:23 pm

Especially in this case, because there are combinations they can try that probably won't significantly decrease their chances of losing and may even improve their chances. As we all know, it took them too long to get Zach Tom on the field and Jake Hanson and Royce Newman on the bench. Rudy Ford could've replaced Darnell Savage sooner than he did. And of course there was the painfully late demotion of Amari Rodgers as kick returner.

So who can they put on the field more? Devonte Wyatt for sure, and maybe more T.J. Slaton, at the expense of Jarran Reed. Sammy Watkins has already been benched for the most part. I'm looking forward to seeing Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs on the field at the same time. And Samori Toure. Anybody else? The O-line may finally be jelling, so I'm not sure I would want to muck with it at this point.

3 points
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mbpacker's picture

December 16, 2022 at 06:14 pm

Is anyone in here good at picking stocks? Not sure if I should go offensive or defensive due to the current economy. Of course, who knows right? It's all so risky and sometimes you just have to be lucky despite all the research that goes into those perfect stocks that will put a jolt into the portfolio. GPG!

2 points
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Since'61's picture

December 16, 2022 at 09:03 pm

There is no such thing as a perfect stock over the longer term. The approach is to diversify your portfolio so that you are protected when the market dips. Diversification also includes bonds, commodities, and currency including Gold and Silver.

Personally I don't own any individual stock unless you include shares of Packer stock which are nothing more than glorified thank you cards for our donations to the team. Mutual Funds, Index Funds and ETFs are much better at mitigating risk and protecting your money over the longer term. Plus today's funds provide plenty of diversification in each of the investment categories.

Most importantly investing is not just about accumulation it's also about distribution when the time comes. Do both properly and you won't need to worry about running out of money during retirement. Thanks, Since '61

0 points
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mbpacker's picture

December 16, 2022 at 09:47 pm

Thank you for putting all that info for investing. I did a poor job of using it as an analogy for the Packers drafting, making trades, and developing their team. By the way I have a diversified retirement fund(s). Hopefully it will be good to me. GPG!

0 points
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Rarescope's picture

December 17, 2022 at 07:20 am

Since ‘61 - are/were you a finance pro or just someone who takes an active interest in investing? Wifey and I are working towards FIRE - financial independence retire early - 100% stocks in cap weighted funds (other than a rental property we own). I perish the thought of any of our money sitting in gold or foreign currencies for diversification or even bonds for that matter. Maybe if you live in Argentina or Peru now you might want some green back exposure but living in the US? No thank you.

-1 points
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Since'61's picture

December 17, 2022 at 09:55 am

Rarescope I'm retired now. So I just want to be "Grandpa" these days. I was a co-owner of a Consulting Firm. Our firm specialized in Business Development and Mergers/Acquisitions projects working with financial service firms, such as insurance companies, banks and brokerage houses.

As for me I have undergraduate degree in Economics and post-graduate degrees in Management Science and Corporate Strategy/Leadership

Initially our business was primarily generated in the US. By the late 90s much of the major M&A business was done in the US. Many of our US clients were expanding into International markets so we continued to work with them as they moved into the Global markets. We remained focused on Global markets, supporting US based companies until the end of 2019. By then my business partner and co-owner had retired and we had already worked out the arrangements to transfer the Company to our employees who still own the Company.

I would agree that currency trading is for the young and the bold. I dabbled in it for a while but I became too busy to keep up with it and pulled out years ago. Gold has traditionally been a solid hedge against inflation and usually does well when markets go into a downturn and create a "flight to quality" in the markets. Bonds were solid investments until interests rates went down to basically zero, although US treasuries are still a good play for those who are extremely risk averse. You won't make much money but you won't lose much either.

As I become older I become more conservative than I was in the past. I stay in touch with the financial gurus who manage our firms investments and our equity shares. I also speak to and visit with many of our clients who are still CEOs or now retired CEOs of some of the Fortune 100 companies.

I wish you the best of luck with your investment portfolio. Stay invested for the long term. Keep an eye on your goals and don't react to sudden market swings either up or down. Cap weighted funds, value index funds should serve you well in the current climate depending on your age. Enjoy. Thanks, Since '61

0 points
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Coldworld's picture

December 17, 2022 at 06:26 pm

The best window into the stock picker myth is the simple fact that the investment banks who advise others do not trade for that purpose. Indeed they expend a great deal of money preventing employees from trading that way in company funds. Over time it’s a losing strategy, and they know it.

1 points
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mbpacker's picture

December 19, 2022 at 10:45 am

Hi- No I am not a financial pro at all but do know the basics. I have a balanced fund and some inherited stock, a pension and that is it. Hope it will be ok. I do keep track a bit and like to consult and view the Boglehead community for suggestions. GPG

0 points
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Since'61's picture

December 16, 2022 at 09:17 pm

I'm not sure what draft purgatory means. Good scouting and proper assessment of the team's draft should mitigate the selection risks whenever their slot comes up in each round. Having said that the draft is still a crap shoot since there are so many variables involved with each player selection, even in the top 10 picks.

Teams like the Browns, Jets and Lions, to name a few, seem to go on and on forever with high draft picks and without fielding a playoff or championship caliber team.

Bottom line is that it is a very difficult feat to accomplish on a consistent basis even in this era of Free Agency. Thanks, Since '61

1 points
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Ferrari-Driver's picture

December 17, 2022 at 11:58 am

I'm not a fan of tanking, but if we were to ever tank, I would hope that it would have been in 1989.

We beat the Cardinals the last game of the season and went from drafting first to drafting in the number two position and we chose Tony Mandarich and we all know how that turned out. These are the first five players drafted in the 1989 draft and four out of the five are in the NFL Hall of Fame.

1 Dallas Cowboys Troy Aikman qb, UCLA
2 Green Bay Packers Tony Mandarich T, Michigan State
3 Detroit Lions Barry Sanders rb, Oklahoma State
4 Kansas City Chiefs Derrick Thomas LB, Alabama
5 Atlanta Falcons Deion Sanders dB, Florida State

2 points
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Starrbrite's picture

December 17, 2022 at 05:41 pm

Much to consider here.
Had the opportunity to select one of the three best ever at their positions.
But honestly, I was (at the time), jazzed they selected Mandarich.
I believed then, he would become one of the best ever O-linemen.

0 points
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