Confessions of a Polluted Mindset - March 31 2021
The Weekly Packers Brain Drain from Jersey Al.
By JerseyAl
I'm afraid this is going to be a short one. My brain is pretty fried after multiple days editing our Draft Guide, which will publish a week from today. BTW, you have one week left to take advantage of the Pre-Order price of $9.99. It goes to regular price of $12 once published. If you've never seen it, you can CHECK OUT LAST YEAR'S DRAFT GUIDE HERE.
Marcedes Lewis:
Welcome back Big Dog. Lewis had previously indicated he wanted a two year contract from the Packers and they obliged. The numbers were reported as eight million over two years, but I saw varying accounts of what the guaranteed money was. Adam Schefter reported it as $4M while Tom Pelissero had it at $2.1M, both according to "sources." So I guess we'll wait and see who has the better source.
Tyler Lancaster:
The parade of "former" Packers continues as Lancaster becomes the fourth player re-signed by the team. Contract details haven't been announced but I'd expect it was a one year deal.
Free Agency:
Despite all the "they still could..." I kept hearing, I never really had much hope that the Packers would sign any outside free agents (and no I'm not counting a long snapper). The Packers were good enough to make it the NFC championship game two years in a row and got blown out by a hot team and lost a game they could have easily won if not for mistakes made on multiple levels. For better or worse, the Packers are married to the idea of giving this same group another shot at it. Their free agency approach, spend what little money they had on players they know rather than on outsiders who may or may not end up fitting, is logical given their mindset. Personally, I would have tried someone new rather than King and Lancaster, but sure, they did come cheap.
From Tom Silverstein:
"Ball altered seven contracts to cut $32.4 million of salary-cap charges from the ’21 ledger since the end of the season. It has resulted in $15.8 million being pushed into ’22 and the rest into ’23 or later. The thought in pushing cap money into future years is that the cap will explode in ’23 after the new network TV contracts go into effect. The Packers should be able to take on those charges without a problem, even if Rodgers is still on the roster. It’s likely they will be back at it pushing money into ’23 and beyond next offseason, but as long as another pandemic doesn’t hit, they should be OK."
So tell me Packers fans, how worried are you about this overall?
POLL:
How worried are you about the Packers kicking the Salary Cap can down the road?
By JerseyAl
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"Jersey Al" Bracco is the Editor-In-Chief, part owner and wearer of many hats for CheeseheadTV.com and PackersTalk.com. He is also a recovering Mason Crosby truther. Follow Al on twitter at @JerseyalGBP.
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Comments (104)
marpag1
March 31, 2021 at 06:52 am
Pushing cap hits into the future is a relative thing, of course. Everybody does it, but who does it more? Even if the salary cap does "explode in 2023" after the new TV contracts, a rising tide lifts all boats. The increase will apply to everyone league-wide. It won't be any distinct advantage to the Packers.
The real question is whether or not the Packers will still be able to make competitive free agent offers relative to what other teams are able to offer. Or will they always be up against someone who has far more cap flexibility than they do? So even if the cap DOES go up dramatically, pushing money forward will always diminish your ability to compete financially.
dobber
March 31, 2021 at 06:59 am
Words of truth.
Guam
March 31, 2021 at 07:46 am
When you have a HOF QB, you rarely are going to have lots of cap room. Just a fact of life unless said QB is willing to take less than market price. On the other hand, you have a HOF QB.......
Look on the bright side, you could be a Bears fan with a retread QB and still have no cap space!
marpag1
March 31, 2021 at 08:20 am
Actually the Bears have TWO retread QBs, but I get your point. LOL
Seriously though. Yeah, agreed. It's the price you pay for the QB you need...
On the other hand, however, the 2022 cap looks to be even more challenging for the Packers than this year. And that is what is fueling a lot of the speculation about ARod. How are the Packers going to manage next year when they need to cut even closer to the bone?
Well.... one obvious way is to dump that HOF QB and go with Jordan Love. Not saying that's the smart thing or what I would do, but from a purely financial (non-football) point of view it's the obvious answer And it would also explain why they are not pushing ARod cap money into the future by restructuring.... because they want to take some of the hit this year so that they will be able to dump ARod next year.
Again, not saying that's what I would do. It's also possible that they haven't restructured ARod because they are confident they can work an extension.
Guam
March 31, 2021 at 10:16 am
I had kind of forgotten about Foles in the "excitement" over Dalton but you are absolutely right, the Bears have two retread QBs who combined probably cost nearly as much as Rodgers and produce about half as much. It has to be tough being a Bears fan.
The Packers evaluation of Jordan Love is going to be critical to the 2022 financial year. If he demonstrates he is an NFL grade QB, Rodgers days as a Packer are numbered. If he is not, then we will see Rodgers' deal reworked and extended. And probably another QB drafted with a #1 pick.
CheesyTex
March 31, 2021 at 11:47 am
I hope they get creative by working out extensions for both #12 AND Love.
murf7777
March 31, 2021 at 08:59 am
Guam, your right on, I can't think of any QB not asking for market price or beyond except for Brady. Even with him, NE is still paying for his contract after letting him go. Yes, that hamstrings the SC and I'll take that dilemma, every day and twice on Sunday.
jannesbjornson
March 31, 2021 at 09:29 am
They have the Biggest piece for their roster puzzle. Now, they have to make draft selections count. Draft for talent and refuse the square pegs to round holes model and they may have a chance to get in the Big Game.
The status quo, go with the flow may work, or it could bring back memories of the wasted Marino years.
flackcatcher
March 31, 2021 at 03:52 pm
Bears.... I need more popcorn.
Thegreatreynoldo
March 31, 2021 at 06:54 pm
True. However, after AR retires or gets pushed out, GB might go decades without having another QB as good as 2017 to 2019 AR. The odds are good that the team never has another QB as good as 2011, 2014, or 2020 AR.
Teams can win with a great defense, but it is hard to acquire and keep a great defense.
This bean-counter is in the not worried at all category; I am concerned, but aving watched the seventies and eighties, super bowl or bust is my philosophy.
jannesbjornson
March 31, 2021 at 10:29 pm
All aboard the train.
Nate-1980
April 01, 2021 at 07:41 pm
That first paragraph TGR is exactly how I feel, and spot on, it will be hard to find a qb as good as Rodgers worst seasons( with the exception of when he got injured).. That’s why I don’t understand the approach of our gm, we need at least one more Lombardi before he leaves..Was Rodgers even that bad in his”down” years ? I don’t think so.. He had a stale coach, predictable plays, and the surrounding team was not up to par.. Getting rid of him premature will be the downfall of this team, and there will be only ONE man to blame..
PeteK
March 31, 2021 at 07:28 am
It will somewhat hamper them in the future, but some older players can be released or extended if they're still playing well. Last years draft probably produced 3 starters and some who contributed. All of this with our #1 used for the future. If we can get same production with this draft it will go a long way to improving us. A Barnes type of production from a CB, Runyon type from a T, Dillion from a NG. Finally, we need a returner( Avery Williams from Boise St comes to mind). I don't think that I'm asking for too much.
Tedlyflyfisher
March 31, 2021 at 12:41 pm
Avery Williams might be very good there.
splitpea1
March 31, 2021 at 12:52 pm
I'm on the Jevon Holland bandwagon: you get defensive versatility on one hand and a returner on the other. We could really use a player like this.
jannesbjornson
March 31, 2021 at 01:11 pm
He is sound.
PeteK
March 31, 2021 at 06:44 pm
Also a great option. He has better defensive ability , but only returns kicks as opposed to Avery who does it all.
porupack
March 31, 2021 at 07:41 am
I don't like the strategy this off season. Two strategies would have been better;
1) Sign the 2 or 3 key pieces as they did, including Jones. Then wait. There was bound to be more releases and cheap 1 year contracts-to-be. Especially employing the Buc's strategy: find cap casualty, elite players just at crest of their production, from losing teams, who can be enticed to field an all-star superbowl team. Can't be that hard to have attracted some serious talent to GB.
2) Go contrarian: test all but 2 of the FA that GB had on the open market, and let them go. Clean salary cap issues, focus on restocking youth in 2021. Go into 2022 with cap space to spend when everyone else is shedding bloated contracts. And the 2021 rookies will be inserted, and any holes can be filled with elite cap casualties.
murf7777
March 31, 2021 at 08:42 am
My thoughts on your two strategies:
1. Read my statement below, we are at a distinct disadvantage in luring FA's of any kind. Any of those FA's Tampa signed big or small deals had competition and could've gone to other teams like GB. My thoughts are that much of their decision was based on the size of City, variety of women if player is single, night life entertainment, restaurants, warm weather and State income tax situation. I'm sure in many situations GB tries but would have to over pay.
2. We were still going to be in a very difficult cap situation in 2022, unless we cut a lot of players and that would jeopardize another year with Rodgers making a run for the title. Now, if the team trades Rodgers, that would be a great way to go, cut players and rebuild threw the draft, ala Miami.
dobber
March 31, 2021 at 11:06 am
Luring the FAs they wanted (key: the ones they wanted, not necessarily all huge names) was never a problem for the cold-weather, high-income-tax, Pats. Thinking you've got a really good chance at winning a ring makes a difference.
Nate-1980
April 01, 2021 at 07:57 pm
Murf7777 you’re right on everything except the size of Tampa isn’t really that large or a great party city, but in comparison to Green Bay trumps it by a good margin.. I’ve lived in Clearwater FL (since 89) which is 30 minutes away from Tampa, but there are surrounding cities with great night life and tons of clubs like ybor and St.Pete.. The summers here are unbearably hot and seem like they get worse every year, I’m dreading the upcoming months booooo !! But girls in bikinis are always a plus ha..
Razer
March 31, 2021 at 08:57 am
I fundamentally agree with your take on FA signing and Murf7777's feedback. I think that Gutekunst is showing this tendency to jump rather than wait. It has been his MO in all his drafts. This would be a good year for patience, particularly on the FA side. I don't know what the hurry was in resigning any of our own FA, particularly the guys who would be unlikely to attract big contracts on the open market.
As for FA signings and Green Bay as a landing spot. Money and security is king for these guys and discounts to play with a HOF QB only applies if you are a WR who needs the help. Allen Robinson is the rule not Devin Funchess.
flackcatcher
March 31, 2021 at 04:13 pm
HA HA HA HA HA.... Seriously, you Cap Man's agent. Other's have done the work up thread in explaining why what you are asking for won't work. The very short answer is 2023 and Father Time. Core players get old and contracts for young players who are this teams next core are expiring. The Packers front office will have to manage this all under the current TV contract and ticket prices. That means some very hard calls for Gutekunst regardless of the new TV deal.
Coldworld
March 31, 2021 at 07:46 am
Reading around, the Packers are far from the only team using this tactic this year that have rarely if ever done so before. For some teams it is nothing new, of course. Others had a ton of cap free. Other than that, we won’t be an outlier.
Razer
March 31, 2021 at 07:52 am
...For better or worse, the Packers are married to the idea of giving this same group another shot at it...
I think that you nailed it with this comment. I would also say that Gutekunst is giving Rodgers another year without disruption to see what he can do. If the team falls to make a serious run, a more significant retool will probably follow, maybe even including a Rodgers trade. Keeping the band together just has a prove it smell.
I wouldn't have given a blocking TE a two year deal. I like Mercedes Lewis but you have a roster of young athletic TEs that need the playing time. This move more than anything was done to appease Rodgers. Lancaster and King don't move this defense ahead.
My hope is with a killer draft to move this status quo.
Coldworld
March 31, 2021 at 08:05 am
Just to be devil’s advocate, we are talking 90 man rosters here in a strange year. I see a certain amount of sense in bringing in known players cheap from a group that contended last year and then seeing if drafting and other acquisitions/development can beat them out, either of a roster spot or down the depth chart. I suspect we might be active after the draft in the low cost arena.
Lewis really isn’t comparable to any other TE on the roster last year. He is much bigger and does things that they don’t really do. I was surprised by the two year contract, but I do like having a player who can do what he does.
dobber
March 31, 2021 at 08:47 am
I agree on Lewis: his role is one that the other TEs on the roster just aren't up to at this point...and may never be.
Sure, they could draft a glorified RT/TE guy and rely on him, but Lewis is very good at his craft--so no learning curve. They could go sign a new guy, but that guy would likely not be as effective and would probably cost more (see Vannett, Nick). I haven't seen the terms on Lewis' deal or a discussion of them, but my guess is that the second year is there to keep the first year palatable, cap-wise. In the end, the second year will allow the Packers to add voidable years after this season, and push his cap hit to nothing next season. Lewis indicated he wants to play two more years, and the Packers decided they wanted that, too.
Since'61
March 31, 2021 at 09:51 am
dobber - I also believe that the Lewis signing became somewhat necessary with the injury to Bak. He provides support to the OL especially at the tackle positions. He can chip on pass plays and make a legit block on run plays.
As of right now we don't know who our starting OTs will be. With Bak out for a TBD amount of time it's good to have Lewis to help out the eventual OTs until Bak returns. Thanks, Since '61
dobber
March 31, 2021 at 09:17 am
Agreed. Be well, friend!
Since'61
March 31, 2021 at 09:50 am
Thanks dobber. You stay well also. Since '61
PatrickGB
March 31, 2021 at 08:17 am
The Packers have a very very expensive HOF QB. He was MVP last year. Yet his salary hamstrings the cap. So the team has little choice but to try and keep the team as intact as it can. My guess is that they try and ride out the salary storm this year and probably the next. Frankly, I have no better idea of how to manage the problem other than what they are already doing. In 2023 I expect to see a different team.
Razer
March 31, 2021 at 09:05 am
Well said. You are right - ultimately, Rodgers will dictate the rebuild. Depending on team performance this coming season, the window may only be one year.
Lphill
March 31, 2021 at 11:03 am
Yet 10 % of the cap is used up on 4 free agents overpaid last year .
Thegreatreynoldo
March 31, 2021 at 07:24 pm
Agreed. However, the Packers are fence-sitting, with their finger in the air checking the breeze. I don't know if Gute is pointing that finger in any particular direction or at any particular group or individual.
Waiting (too long) to decide which direction to pursue makes it much harder to manipulate the cap. GB, even though they have auto conversion rights (sources are Jason Fitzgerald at OTC, Demovsky, and Ingalls), paid AR his $6.8M roster bonus. Once paid, that can not be undone or manipulated. So, in that regard, they waited too long and lost one of their options. If they also pay AR some or all of his base salary, that too cannot be undone. "Time still to change the road they're on."
Failing to commit makes it much more likely that the team will subsequently be unable to commit to AR long-term unless the cap explodes in 2023. It might increase by enough and in time, but it seems more likely that the cap takes off in 2024 and 2025, hitting $300M by 2027.
So, since Gute/FO knows more about how much the cap might increase than fans, their strategy might work, but if they are wrong (for example, the vaccines don't work well enough or fast enough for the fans to return to the stadiums in force), it can be a self-fulfilling strategy: don't commit might mean being unable to do so.
murf7777
March 31, 2021 at 08:20 am
I'm a big believer in draft and develop. For GB especially, you must be a draft and develop team if you want to consistently win. The big FA's have multiple teams fighting for them. Let's see, I'm a big name FA, I can go to a warm weather destination or a big city with lots of entertainment and cool restaurants, etc....or frigid GB, where do you think I will go if the deals are similar? The only thing GB has going for it is a winning culture, but I don't think that is enough so GB has to over pay to get the big name and in many cased fringe FA's. In addition, teams located in States where there isn't any income tax also have an advantage. Florida here I come or should I say Tampa, they have all three advantages; big city, warm climate and no income tax.
In 2019, we went big into the FA market (I was one who declared, too much in one year, we will pay for it down the road) and although the FA's have mostly worked we over payed for the majority of those deals and we are now seeing the carnage of those signings. It hamstrings your future. What if two of those signings became losers, which could've happened, we would be in a world of hurt.
Sure you have to get FA's occasionally and many times those are your own, IE: A Jones who gave GB a hometown discount. Your own FA's are the only ones who would consider giving such a discount.
Draft and develop is the way for GB to continue and I'm happy they hired Gutey, who learned from Wolf/Thompson and who understands that concept and drafts for now and the future. He got a bit too aggressive for my liking in 2019, but he is his own man and I'm fine with that as long as he continues to grow and learn the consequences of each decision he makes.
Razer
March 31, 2021 at 09:31 am
I agree in the draft and develop engine for this team. I doubt we are a preferred destination in FA, particularly after Rodgers is done. What we have not done well is DRAFT. Mistakes like Randall/Rollins and the numerous first and second round misses forced the Packers into these costly FA fixes - which, as you point out, we will keep paying for. Bottom-line, we need to get better at our drafts. Let's see what our scouts can do in this strange college year.
Coldworld
April 01, 2021 at 10:53 am
We had a period where our drafting, retention and roster make up became a problem as TT was less healthy and in charge. Nice then we’ve done really well to recover, but are still affected by the aftermath of the aging, Swiss cheese of a roster and empty pipelines inherited.
Coldworld
April 01, 2021 at 10:53 am
We had a period where our drafting, retention and roster make up became a problem as TT was less healthy and in charge. Nice then we’ve done really well to recover, but are still affected by the aftermath of the aging, Swiss cheese of a roster and empty pipelines inherited.
splitpea1
March 31, 2021 at 11:05 am
We should be rejoicing that Gute was aggressive in 2019 because we badly needed pass rush and safety help to make up to past draft failures. We would have never gotten as far as we did the past couple of years without those free agents.
I like draft and develop as the main tool for improving the team too, but if you need help, go out there and get it if you can.
murf7777
March 31, 2021 at 01:32 pm
splitpea, I would agree it has worked out well for us. That was an anomaly IMO. I think we over paid, but it did help get us back to back 13-3 seasons. I would like to see FA signings spread out over a period of years thou vs one big 4 signings in one year because it does put you into a SC bind.
Thegreatreynoldo
March 31, 2021 at 07:54 pm
Fair enough. I think your concerns about attracting FAs are not untrue but are overblown. GB's price makes it much better for UDFAs and lower-level FAs to choose GB. There used to be stories of UDFAs sleeping their cars in big city markets because they couldn't get by on weekly TC pay plus per diems. That's increased to $1,200 per week during TC now: I will let someone from some high-cost cities tell me how well such players can live on $1,200 per week, assuming they don't get cut after a week or two. Even $142K per year (assuming that the PS player isn't unceremoniously dumped after a week or two, something half of them can't assume) might get eaten up just by the cost of living in NYC, LA, and Seattle. And the weather in GB is gorgeous in June through what, September, and usually doesn't get awful until close to Christmas. Lately, it has been too warm to have a white Christmas.
Gute and every other GM in the NFL reasonably expected to have $30M more in cap space for this year. Absent Covid, those four FA deals in 2019 wouldn't be a problem, even if one or two of them didn't work out. It was a lot of money: which FA do you think GB could have dispensed with and still gotten to conference championship games in 2019 and 2020? At the time, Turner would have been the odd man out, and we'd have gotten to see just what Nijman could do against JPP or Barrett. Ugly as Turner/JPP and Wagner/Barrett was, not sure how Nijman would have looked.
murf7777
April 01, 2021 at 09:54 am
Good points, although, I still think medium to high end FA's isn't attracted to GB barring other choices without paying a higher price. Regarding Nijman and Turner/Wagner, we won't know that answer, but I'd find it hard to believe he could've played much worse. That said there may have been other unknown people who might've come on board as a lessor price then Turner and done as well or better job.
IMO, GB has a great organization and draft and develop will continue to be their bread and butter if they want to stay a consistent winner.
murf7777
April 01, 2021 at 10:05 am
TGR....one other comment, you're the last person I would try to debate against when it comes to managing the salary cap. You are on top of your game there!
Archie
March 31, 2021 at 08:43 am
IMHO, odds that Gutey:
1 - trades up in R1 - 40%
2 - trades down in R1 - 40%
3 - exercises pick 29 - 20%
Since'61
March 31, 2021 at 09:21 am
Archie your projections sound about right. The real issue is will Gute be able to find a suitable and willing trade partner either up or down. I think the chances for trading down are better than the chances for trading up.
I also believe the Packers can get better value by trading down into the 2nd round than up in the first, unless the Packers can move up a few spots to get "their guy" at either CB or WR. I don't expect the Packers to be able to move up to much higher than 26 or 25 unless they give away too many of their picks.
There's just no way to account for alll the possible variations or scenarios that can happen during the draft.
Just wake me up when it's over so I can check out the Packers picks. Thanks, Since '61
jannesbjornson
March 31, 2021 at 09:34 am
Trade up twice into round one. Get a blue chip.
Since'61
March 31, 2021 at 10:05 am
How much of the rest of our draft do we need to give up to get a blue chip. We probably need to get into at least the top 15 to obtain a blue chip player. We need immediate help at CB, DL and WR. Plus we need depth at OL, RB and ILB. And we're going to need to pick a 3rd string QB. That 's minimum of 7 picks.
I'd rather trade back and try to pick up another 2nd and 3rd rounder and give Gute the chance to draft multiple CBs and DLs at least and increase our "hit" chances than give up 4 or 5 of our picks to try to move up in the first and come up with one possible blue chip. What are we left with if we miss on the alleged blue chipper?
Having said that, there are much better draftniks here at the blog who know much more than I do about how many and which of our picks it would take to move up twice in the first round. It may take more than my aforementioned 4 or 5 picks. Be well. Thanks, Since '61
Coldworld
March 31, 2021 at 11:02 am
About half to gamble. Not the year to do it since we need competition at depth as well as early talent infusion.
jannesbjornson
March 31, 2021 at 01:10 pm
Move up for two picks in the first round. Secure talent. A CB and an OT or WR with quicks. The Raji/Matthews scenario on the lower end of the round. Fully vaccinated and fully committed to following the protocols and masking.
Science over Sorcery. Stay safe, blue skies ahead.
Since'61
March 31, 2021 at 01:29 pm
Totally agree on the vaccinations, wearing a mask and the science.
My question is how many picks are you willing to give up to move up for 2 first round picks? More importantly what is the backup plan if Gute misses on one or both of the picks?
Besides this roster needs improvement and/or depth at many position groups. That can’t happen if we trade away 5 or 6 picks or more to move up in the first round. Thanks, Since ‘61
Thegreatreynoldo
March 31, 2021 at 08:08 pm
Probably takes the 2nd pick (#62) and a 2022 first-rounder.
Per the jimmy johnson trade chart, it would take the 2nd, 3rd, both 4ths, both 5ths, both 6ths, and the 7th. IDK, maybe a team would accept the 2nd, 3rd and both fourths in practice.
Maybe NO would trade out of 28 down all the way to 62nd. Doubt KC, TB, CLE or Buff would be willing as they are trying to win, but maybe some of those teams would since a couple of them have young QBs and their windows are longer.
RCPackerFan
March 31, 2021 at 08:43 am
Marcedes Lewis:
This to me was just a smart move. He provides something different from the other TE's which makes him valuable. He also provides leadership which is needed.
Tyler Lancaster:
I am fine with resigning Lancaster as long as he is a rotational guy and not being viewed as a starter. He is fine to play 10-15 snaps a game. Not 30.
Free Agency:
I would have loved to have seen them sign a FA. Which they still might, but at this point it seems like it may wait to happen after the draft. We will see. Regardless I would expect them to do similar things to last year. Find some veterans throughout the season to fill needs or roles.
From Tom Silverstein:
Not worried about this. Ball is great at what he does which is being a cap guru.
dobber
March 31, 2021 at 09:15 am
"We will see. Regardless I would expect them to do similar things to last year."
I have a nagging feeling that there won't be as many "push-backs" on contracts next year (into 2022 and beyond) as we're anticipating. I think the purge on big contracts will start after 2021.
Razer
March 31, 2021 at 09:35 am
...I think the purge on big contracts will start after 2021...
Win or lose - I think you are right.
Coldworld
April 01, 2021 at 10:56 am
Surely we have no way of knowing? The only thing that we can say at this point is that we could just as easily go both ways: neither is certain, both are entirely feasible.
dobber
April 01, 2021 at 08:52 pm
...and if you watch my track-record on predictions of late, I wouldn't be lighting the world on fire.
Thegreatreynoldo
March 31, 2021 at 08:13 pm
I think Ball is good at what he does. Note that being the cap wizard to a GM who never signs big free agents is not that taxing.
jannesbjornson
March 31, 2021 at 10:47 pm
Gutedkunst forced him into foreign territory and made him earn some of his salary. I would have moved on from the guy. I would prefer Andrew Brandt to move into Murphy's spot and define the next ten year plan. Time to clean up some oil stains the vintage race car may be leaking.
PF4L
March 31, 2021 at 08:49 am
I'm surprised Silverstein didn't bring up the 2022 cap and where the Packers fit.
The Packers are almost ranked at the bottom, only above Dallas, they are already over the cap with only 30 players under contract.
Not to mention Alexander and Adams waiting for their monster contracts this season.
The Packers top 15 players in 2022 account for 190+ million towards the cap
The Packers don't have to worry about 2023 yet, but 2022 is another story. Right now, they are just trying to survive this year.
Some commenters have pointed out other teams had to push off salary and restructure as well.
That may be technically true, but they either had a surplus, or they didn't have to deal with a 30 plus million deficit once the cap was determined.
As always...no charge.
PF4L
March 31, 2021 at 01:04 pm
My comments were intelligently judged as bogus, proven by the Thumbs Down.
Maybe....everything i wrote is factually wrong. probably fiction, i might have just made it all up. I couldn't fool those people :)
Maybe.....the Packers have a surplus of 110 million in 2022, and i just......read it wrong?
I LOVE YOU GUYS!!
JerseyAl
March 31, 2021 at 02:09 pm
I'd guess that basically people are tired of hearing your non-stop broken record of the same commentary and the sarcasm. That would be my guess.
PF4L
March 31, 2021 at 05:48 pm
That is the first time i posted that content...Al
Was it wrong, can you find any factual errors in it...Al?
Or is the truth just too much to bear...Al?
PF4L
March 31, 2021 at 07:17 pm
Gee Al........go figure
Rob Demovsky
ESPN Staff Writer
GREEN BAY, Wis. -- If you thought the Green Bay Packers faced a challenge with the salary cap this year, wait until you see what they’re up against in 2022.
Demovsky and I used different examples, but the storyline is the same.
Coldworld
March 31, 2021 at 04:28 pm
We are far from the only team In The cap situation. We are that is pushing back cap hit. Nor were we close to the most over cap or in the amount that we have pushed out into the future. Simply not true.
PF4L
March 31, 2021 at 05:54 pm
1) Who said we were the only team?
2) If i can understand your english....
We pushed out over 32 million (so far) into the future, Please list who has pushed out more besides Dallas.
dobber
April 01, 2021 at 08:54 pm
It's only a problem if the Packers plan to honor those contracts.
Thegreatreynoldo
March 31, 2021 at 08:29 pm
There is no question that GB has the most liabilities for 2022. That's a fact.
GB's list of UFAs isn't long, but it has two elite players in Davante Adams, Jaire Alexander, and also has notable players in MVS and Lucas Patrick. Perhaps the latter two get replaced by draft picks (or they try to). Still, not hard to see another $50M+ in AAV, and even at 40% of AAV as a first-year cap number, $20M more in hard liabilities.
2022 is going to be dicey. Not sure what the cap will likely be: $220M to $230M minus one-third of whatever amount the owners propped up the 2021 cap by. Not many cap casualty candidates that don't cut muscle rather than fat at this point: Lowry and Preston are all I see.
PF4L
March 31, 2021 at 08:57 pm
OTC has the 2022 projected cap number at 203 million.
This site has things dialed in pretty tight. It can still fluctuate but i think they have a good idea based on the disbursement of the Covid hit spread across the 21-23 seasons.
There is a small influx of cash for the 22 season from the Thursday night network deal, but more to follow in 2023 when all the new network deals are in full implementation.
*****************
It's refreshing to see other fans having a grasp of reality and some knowledge. It's nice having some company.
Thegreatreynoldo
April 01, 2021 at 03:14 am
It's worse than that. OTC is based on 30 contracts. GB will have 51. 21 more players at the minimum for 2022 of $705K is $14.8M. Some of those 21 will have a credited season.
In my Packer Tracker article that I link to, I have GB's adjusted 2022 Cap Liabilities at $219M, not including Jaire, Adams, MVS and Patrick.
PF4L
April 01, 2021 at 09:35 am
Yes Sir...it is worse than that.
Which i have detailed in other post i have submitted on this site, and my home site.
I've shown where the top 15 Packers under contract for 2022 represent over 190 million in cap hits.
I have previously posted about the 30 players signed, and how Alexander and Adams still need to be signed to new contracts this season.
I've been talking about this for awhile. But now recently Demovsky is finally brining it up. So that makes it more real.....or something
So maybe now....The thumbs down sheep might actually wake up and start thinking for themselves.
Dare to dream.
Packers0808
March 31, 2021 at 09:33 am
Gut feeling signed Lewis because they plan to move on from Steinberger.[sp} Also believe Rodgers contract adjustment yet to come!
Thegravedigger
March 31, 2021 at 11:53 am
No its not. Rodgers is gone next year. Hes gonna win a sb in carolina.
Packers0808
March 31, 2021 at 12:48 pm
You just made your name with that statement!
Thegravedigger
March 31, 2021 at 10:40 pm
Im usually not the negative type, especially about the packers. I just think if they wanted him around they wouldve restructured his deal, like they did with 7 other players. Maybe there trying to just keep their options open. But they drafted a fucking qb in round 1. They could probably get a bunch of picks for rodgers, reset the money, and gute will try and be the smartest guy in the room and roll with jordan love (his guy) instead of aaron. If you dont think that gutes ego plays a roll in gbs future than you are just not looking at this the right way. Gute is just a man. He wants to be the man. Mark murphy refused to comment today on questions about aarons contract. What happened to "were not idiots"!? This is one last run. 2021. Enjoy it.
Packers0808
April 01, 2021 at 07:27 am
Glad you enjoy your negativity and being wrong.
Thegravedigger
April 01, 2021 at 11:08 am
Writings on the wall dude. They drafted a qb in round 1. Open your eyes. Or not. I dont want to be right. Read my past comments. I love this team. But they couldve restructured #12. Made another 5 mil in space for this year. Signed another piece. They didnt. Why not? You tell me that. Why wouldnt they restructure rodgers?
Packers0808
April 01, 2021 at 02:44 pm
Who says they won't besides you, dude. And most likely waiting for other deals if need cap room or see what cap is next year and then needed will do so then. This has already all been decided and discussed thoroughly with Rodgers! Open your eyes and see the light! restructure is NOT needed at this time, why you think they did all the other personnel first?
Thegravedigger
April 01, 2021 at 11:21 pm
They did all the other personel for two reasons. To make one last run, in 2021, and to have a solid team around jordan love in 2022. They only have 3 million left. Total. For draft picks. Theyd rather pay 3 players void years then sign aaron rodgers. They are actually paying amos, crosby, and i think turner years after they are even on the team. And no. They cant convert his roster bonus into a signing bonus. Know why? Because they paid him his roster bonus. You know what that does? It lowers his dead money for next year. A lot. So what light would you like me to see? They didnt draft the kid to sit on the bench. Aaron rodgers was the last first round qb to sit for 3 years. Do you honestly think this kid is just gonna be the backup qb?
frankthefork
March 31, 2021 at 09:51 am
Good enough Al. ML89 is a must signing and Lancaster is a bull in the middle; more than Lowrey who I expect a pay cut or else.
Board contacts say AR12, is acting Favre like and not willing to be a team player and Gute and MLF are ready to move on. So it's 2 more years of AR12 in GB at a minimum/maximum.
Therefore, I expect Love and a newly drafted QB will be on display for the 3 preseason games this fall. It's been great to have back to back HOF QB's at Lambeau for 30 years, but money, ego and fame have made some players expendable. Shame!
We know the CB, S, DT, LB's, WR, TE, RB and OT positions will be addressed in the draft so that's 8 picks minimum of 10 available plus UDFA's, so I bet Veldheer is signed soon. GPG
Since'61
March 31, 2021 at 10:16 am
If your alleged "board contacts" are correct then MLF and Gute should be ready to move on because after 2 or 3 under.500 seasons with Love they will be and should be shown the door. So Maybe Gute and MLF are speaking about themselves when they speak about moving on.
If Rodgers has another MVP type season and/or wins the SB in 2021 are the Packers suddenly going to become "idiots" which Murphy said they weren't and move on from Rodgers. I don't think so. And if Rodgers remains until 2022 that's fine he would be 40 by then. But plenty can happen between now and the end of the 2022 season. Thanks, Since '61
Thegravedigger
March 31, 2021 at 11:55 am
Murphy today refused to talk to the media about rodgers now. Demovski asked why they didnt restructure aaron, murphy said " nice try rob" . rodgers last year is next year.
frankthefork
March 31, 2021 at 12:07 pm
No one but the staff knows Loves NFL talent. Give it 6 months trolls, we will know. If Ar 12 is a 4 time MVP or wins a SB, that's great trade bait or possibly extended and resigned. This year's cap is a one and done downer and goes up 10% in 2022 and another 10% in 2023 based on projected revenues.
BTW, A 40 yr old NFL QB is rare. In my memory only 4 have done it; with one TB12 winning a SB. AR12 is 38 this year..what part of 2 years more of AR12 didn't you read! AR12 has 2 years left for a 3rd time! Beyond that it's a guess. Always a critic know it all wanna be!
Since'61
March 31, 2021 at 01:44 pm
First if Gute and MLF want to move on from Rodgers they will do it sooner (2021) rather than later (2022). Plus I wasn’t questioning whether the Packers will move on from Rodgers, which many of us have already discussed endlessly since he signed his current contract, I was questioning your alleged “board” contacts.
First it appears that they know nothing more than the rest of us have speculated and second if they know that the team is moving on from Rodgers they would not be speaking about it to people outside of their boardroom. I currently sit on the board of directors of 2 nonprofit organizations and I have consulted with and worked with numerous for profit BoDs during my consulting career so I am very familiar with the confidentiality agreements which Board members must sign. Once they accept and agree to a BoD position.
If the Packers have Board members who are in violation of their confidentiality agreements the team has much bigger problems than what happens with Rodgers.
Who’s the know it all wanna be now? Thanks, Since ‘61
Coldworld
March 31, 2021 at 04:35 pm
Packers Board members likely don’t know what Murphy intends to do with Rodgers even if he does. They are there to feel important and make sure the financial health of the organization is preserved. They haven’t been involved in football decisions in this millennium.
As to Rodgers contract, it may be that Rodgers has views, and it may be they don’t want to push till 2023 and if he stays healthy.
Since'61
April 01, 2021 at 09:03 am
Totally agree on the Board members and on Rodgers contract.
I think that the Packers need to come clean with Rodgers. Let him know their plans for him and the team.
If the Packers want to retain him longer term (beyond 2022) they should tell him. Also they should come clean and say "Look Aaron we want to sign blank big name FA but we need your help with the cap to do it can we work it out? My guess is that if Rodgers knows the plan and who or what the Packers are trying to do to improve the team to get to an SB that he would work with the team.
But as of today I don't think he knows or has any security about the team's plans for him or for FAs. So he is going to sit tight and keep his money until he has at least some idea of what the team is going to do with it.
Thanks, Since '61
stockholder
March 31, 2021 at 10:17 am
I see King as the best signing of anybody. What a bargain, How unselfish. And the versatility he gives Gute in this draft. Is just so huge; it would be a slap in his face to draft his replacement. Looks like packers aren't going to change. Lowrey didn't get his contract re-worked, and now with the LanCaster signing. It only signals a bad draft is on the horizon. Again, we will avoid the DL. How the trench is so important to the offense, yet isn't for the Defense, just pisses me off. I've seen the philosophy of the 3-4-4 for too long. And without the right men up front. My hopes for super-bowl champions keep dwindling. When you look back at the packers best defenses. I just shake my head at the wasted years. It's so obvious that Clark needs help. I just wish they would turn this team over to somebody that played on the DL. Gute can Never say he put his best effort into this team! With this DL.
PF4L
March 31, 2021 at 01:07 pm
:)
MarkinMadison
March 31, 2021 at 10:25 am
Right now the Packers only have about a dozen players under contract for 2023. The real money is in just four players: Rodgers, Bakh, Clark and Jones. They range from 9.5% to 14.0% of the current cap plus a nominal increase- not accounting for any future cap increases in the scale expected. By 2023 those contracts will look cheap if the cap goes up as expected. So I'm in the "not worried" category, but I didn't need the descriptive modifier. 2022 is more problematic, but I don't think the Packers have done anything to put them in any real type of salary cap pinch yet - they have plenty of room to move both now and next year.
canadapacker
March 31, 2021 at 10:58 am
All I can say is 13-3 , 13-3 and a great chance to be in the playoffs again next year with the state of affairs in Chicago and Detroit. So what needs to be done is to ensure that the draft picks fit the team and are able to develop - as fast as they are capable knowing full well that Lafleur brings guys along rather slowly. Unless we get hit by the injury bug this team should be better. Unless the new DC brings his Detroit karma with him, we should be better. Unless Covid has a resurgence and we do not get to have OTA. preseason games and practices we should see what Love is made of. So Gute has done pretty much what he was able to do. You dont dump a vet in order to pick up another vet of the same capability but unknown clubhouse character. We did lose a couple of guys and good on them for getting paid but you always have to have room for your draft picks and that is there now.
dobber
March 31, 2021 at 11:12 am
"as fast as they are capable knowing full well that Lafleur brings guys along rather slowly."
Alexander, Savage, Jenkins all started right away. Love is behind an HOFer and Gary was behind two guys in 2019 (as a rook) who notched double-digit sacks. I think LaF (or Pettine) is playing guys as they're ready (or as they win jobs).
PeteK
March 31, 2021 at 05:21 pm
Don't forget the UDFAs Lazard, Sullivan, (after one year) and Barnes ( after a few games) who were developed and brought along rather quickly especially for a 13-3 team.
Thegreatreynoldo
March 31, 2021 at 08:37 pm
Agreed. I think MM was very slow to play new faces. Could be misremembering. Barnes this year and Sullivan last year played a lot, so it isn't just high draft picks, which is more common.
splitpea1
March 31, 2021 at 11:21 am
I think this group deserves another shot at it, as long as we're trying to fill defensive needs in the draft instead of going on other tangents (like last year). Surely a couple of them can contribute in their rookie seasons if we make good selections and give them the opportunity to play instead of grooming them at a snail's pace....And although the draft is not teeming with Aaron Donalds, surely we can find at least one player who can help us out more here both now and in the future.
Jackwagon
March 31, 2021 at 11:42 am
murf7777
You're exactly correct about free agents not wanting to come to Green Bay. But your post is the first I've seen that mentions women. And I've been thinking about that for awhile. These players are very young, have a lot of money. Many come from poor backgrounds.
They want to enjoy their new & prosperous life. Warm weather, nice restaurants, the beaches, night clubs, etc. And women... How many young women are in Green Bay and how many are women of color. And they aren't in a bikini year round like in some southern states. I guess it's taboo to talk about this because I never hear about it. But dating is natural and I'm sure that it's a part of the thinking when comparing contract offers.
Tedlyflyfisher
March 31, 2021 at 12:46 pm
Haven’t you heard that Green Bay is “the Paris of the Midwest”?
murf7777
March 31, 2021 at 01:26 pm
Thanks Jackwagon....we too often think GB should've, could've signed so and so, but the reality is there is always two sides that have to agree. GB isn't on top of the list.
Thegravedigger
April 02, 2021 at 11:45 am
Look at snacks. He turnned us down like 27 times until we were the last girl at the party at 4 am
Thegreatreynoldo
March 31, 2021 at 08:46 pm
I wrote an opposing comment above, but this is a good point.
I remember my parents making me sign up for the "Study Dorm" when I went to college. I still found the parties, and the quiet hours came in handy for sleeping off hangovers in peace.
But maybe overall I'd have found more parties elsewhere - hard to believe, but theoretically possible.
frankthefork
March 31, 2021 at 12:17 pm
Agree, CP 13-3 two years running is great. Why change it? GB has quality back ups waiting, just not on defense. And the big unknown is this team in 2022; many will have expired contracts. Extending and resigning is not cost effective with no cap room(3m). Therefore expect an influx of drafted young talent this year and next. RELAX, nothing lasts forever. GPG
NorCalPacker685
March 31, 2021 at 03:25 pm
Moral of the story... Why is Dean Lowry still on the team? For over 6 million no less. The front office’s infatuation with “our guys” has gone too far.
PeteK
March 31, 2021 at 05:31 pm
Dead cap 1.5 mill in 2021, 1.5 in 2022, save 4.8 this year. I'm not exactly jumping for joy over his play, but give me a free agent with better #s for that money. Next year is the time to get rid of Lowry, unless he has a big year.
Thegreatreynoldo
March 31, 2021 at 08:51 pm
Lowry can wait. Depends on how the draft goes and/or if GB can find a veteran DL for the same or less than $3.3M. I think he might also be the final piece in getting under the cap this September when the 52nd, 53rd and PS count. $4.8M pays for them pretty nicely with about $400K to spare.
I would not be house-hunting in GB were I Mr. Lowry.
Thegravedigger
April 02, 2021 at 11:52 am
Because GUTE signed him to that deal. EGO matters. Its not about our guys. Its about his legacy. If they trade rodgers and go on to win the big game with jordan love, gute becomes a god in the sports world. It makes me sick but people are people, and men in power serve themselves first. Rodgers is our guy. Hes not gutes guy. Our guys dont matter. His guys do.
CoachDino
April 03, 2021 at 05:47 am
If Tom is right, and the cap for 2022 goes up from the 192M to 200M that's a good thing. Its an 8M, up to 10M cap relief. The Packers will then be 13M to 15M over the cap limit. Other than Dallas no nfl team is close to The Packers, or negative for that matter (Over) If the best case scenario Tom laid out happens the packers will be in a worse situation than the last 2 years.
There's another sticky issue, not mentioned.
Basically: whatever amount the cap goes up will have a very high correlation to the Salary.Contract increases the Players will demand negating any cap relief in terms of competitive advantage. In essence, cap increases will have a negligible overall impact on the cap situation.
I'm not saying it will have zero impact and am not a capologist. Just don't see how the packers will get away without another large helping of no competitive resources to use in FAs, pushing and restructuring contracts again.
Then banking on 2023 going up so much, that the Player Market Value / %Increase in cap space correlation, will lessen. The factor Ive not determined is the effect players signed with contracts under pre Cap Increase impacts the teams competitive advantage to sign wanted FA. Once again Im just thinking off the top of my head but IMO at face value, I don't see where it's the instant solution to the cap issue the Packers have. The instant solution, which I'm not advocating, is Trade AR and instantly save 23M, 2-1/2 to 3 times the saving gained through a cap limit increase (8 M to 10M). That would just give you enough to sign your draft picks. Nothing there w/o cutting pushing to sign the RFA etc that is normally the given every year before you look to NEW FAs.
That leads to another conversation