That 3rd down stat was brought up on the broadcast, I believe it was worst in the league. Not sure if that's a concern or one of those fluke stats that don't really tell you anything. I'm guessing GB has had a number of 3rd and 30s that are throwing off that average.

Bulaga - I guess with games against NY and WAS I would have thought this would be the time to rest him and get his leg healthy for the final games and playoffs. That tells me that either the backup is so terrible that MLF would be scared for 12s health in doing that, or that 2 weeks of rest wouldn't have benefited Bulaga much.

"On my list of topics for this article was to touch on Rodgers' extreme aversion to risky throws.

Thanks for bringing this up Al. I actually commented about this same thing in a response to Razer on a different article here on CHTV earlier this morning, but I couldn't agree more. IMO it's become detrimental to the offense BIG TIME.

Remember the play in McCarthy's offense called "Tampa 27"? ALL offenses have something similar but for the Packers, they KILLED teams with it with Driver, then Jennings, and Jordy Nelson. The Packers could run the same play and throw it to Adams, MVS, or even Lazard. BUT Rodgers has become SO risk-averse he rarely throws a pass over the middle unless he absolutely HAS to and then it's maybe 50-50 of it happening. You give Rodgers a choice between a wide-open receiver in the middle or a semi-open receiver along the sideline he'll throw to the sideline 9 out of 10 times. More defenders in the middle of the field equal a better chance of a deflection or interception which to Rodgers it seems is just unthinkable.

Personally, I think Rodgers is going to HAVE to start throwing to the middle of the field IF the Packers are to do anything against the better defensive teams left on the schedule or in the playoffs. Throw a pass to the TE down the seam, just like EVERY team does against the Packers. Stop IGNORING that WR or TE who flashes open right in front of you 15 yards downfield for the overthrown or underthrown pass 50 yards down the sideline.

I get it, there's a possibility of bad things happening when throwing down the middle. Tipped passes, deflections, a Safety Rodgers didn't see to make an interception. BUT with risk comes reward. Not always but enough where I'd like to see Rodgers at least TRY. Of those 4 interceptions, at least 2 or 3 have been tipped, deflected, or bounced off the hands of the receiver. Starting this week I'd love to see MLF's "Tampa 27" used moving forward. How about at least throwing the ball to that rookie TE 20 or 30 yards downfield on a seam pass? He may not know the entire offense or (GULP) a trusted receivers for Rodgers. But I'd bet my last dollar the kid knows how to run a seam route, catch the ball, or make a play if given the chance. 4 weeks to go...It's time Rodgers...

I think part of the Packers problem leading to longer yardage to go on third downs is penalties. While the Packers are 21st in the NFL for total number of team penalties this season so far (80), they are second in the NFL with 64% of their penalties by the offense (51). That averages out to over 30 yards in penalties per game by the Packers offense.

I rely on Jersey Al to give me a clear and balanced view of the state of the team. You never disappoint. Like most of us, you are tempering your 9-3 enthusiasm with a health dose of critical eye. Thank You.

For me it boils down to this offense coming together - which basically means Aaron Rodgers getting 'it'. Let's face it, the defense is as good as it is going to get. The D-line isn't getting any better and there is no help coming at linebacker. If the secondary doesn't blow too many coverages we will snag the occasional turnover and give the offense a chance. SO, the offense needs to be able to control games and put up points at a higher, more consistent rate. Rodgers is the engine and he has to put the pieces together. This coin has to drop or any balanced team with a good D-line will beat us.

At the game:
Getting to watch from your viewpoint I'm really curious to know what you took away from the game. For example, are WR's getting open more often then we are lead to believe. Or vice versa? Do you see major openings in our defense? Things like that.

3rd downs:
Its really a simple thing. Get 5 yards on first and 2nd down and 3rd downs are manageable. The problem this year is that they have had way to many 3rd and 10's or more. This is where I'd love to see a simple play. Sometimes you just need a simple 5 yards on 2nd down to make 3rd and 5. How about getting the TE's more involved. While some of these plays may not be dynamic it helps making 3rd downs more manageable.

Kevin King:
I do believe a lot of his inconsistencies are due to him missing so many games in his young career. King is inconsistent. He can be very, very good. He can also give up big plays. He needs to cut down on giving up so many big plays.

Turnovers or bust:
This defense looks completely different when they get the turnovers. But some of that is due to the pressures they are getting. In games where they are getting more pressure they create more turnovers. In games where they don't get the pressure they get torn up a bit. Even in those games they have gotten there hands on balls which they have dropped. When they get the chance at the turnover they need to complete it. And yes I'm mostly talking about Alexander.

Academy Awards:
yeah we all had to hear all about this from the tv crew. While he is good at it, can't deny that those plays 95% of the time are truly pass interference.

NFL:
The 3 teams currently ahead of GB have some tough games. This week 2 of them play each other. Saints and 49ers. Week 17 49ers and Seahawks play each other. This is the remaining schedule for the 3 teams.
Saints - 49ers, Colts, At Titans, At Panthers
49ers - At Saints, Falcons, Rams, At Seahawks
Seahawks - At Rams, At Panthers, Cardinals, 49ers
I'm not sure exactly what we need, but loses from these teams are good for us. Looks like we will be rooting for Panthers and Rams a quite a bit the next few weeks.

All we can do is continue to win, and it will fall the way it falls. That Chargers loss is hurting a little more right now.

Warrior:
Not only did Bulaga play, but he was dominating! I'm not going to lie, I really do wonder if the 49ers game would have been different had Bulaga been able to play the whole game. Light really struggled in that game.

Rodgers:
I do wonder if a few of those off throws were due to weather. There was one for sure you could tell it slipped out of his hand.
There were a couple of plays in the game though where he was under pressure and he was able to throw downfield for completions. 1 huge play to Lazard and another was the 4th down to Allison. I think he needs to throw his guys open a little more. throw it and let them go get it. Lazard has shown he can go get it. Adams is another guy. But I'm not going to complain about Rodgers being more conservative. There is a fine line there and I'm good with what he has done.

"This was a bottom-10 offense that led the Packers in time of posession, first downs and total yards."

I've never done any statistical analysis, but I've often noticed when the turnover margin gets lopsided that the losing teams ends up leading in these three categories. My gut is that this is because with turnovers the winning offense is operating on shorter fields.

I was so very wrong about DK Metcalf. I said that the other day but I feel the need to say it again. It appears that he has learned how to run a route. Here's hoping that Lazard and MVS can take a step forward right now.

All good points, Al, though I'm not sure about the Davante acting award. He gets mugged a lot once defenders know they got beat.

Glad Bulaga is getting just praise after all the offseason crap about him being glass slippers, overpaid injury risk.
Let a few of those fans own up, and give him his warrior medal.

I put Marcedes close to Bulaga as a grind it out warrior, and I've been on his bandwagon since he arrived.

On Rodgers' conservativism; agreed. We just debate endlessly about why; whether poor separation by WRs, poor routes, inadequate WR speed, or Rodgers panic against sacks and then doesn't see the field like he used to.

When watching Dusty Everly recent post on 3rd down pass plays, it strikes me that WRs were overly rigid on running a route (and kind of lethargic), even when it was clear that the defender anticipated and played that route, the WR continued, then kind of trotted when the WR realized he was well covered.

In just a few of those plays that Dusty showed, if the WR had abandoned the pre-set route early enough for Rodgers to note the change, and juked opposite where the defender was going, there was wide open field.

Its a tough dilemma. A preset and predictable route is usually a recipe for success between QB and WR, but then being overly rigid, and not having a receiver-QB mechanism for improvisation then limits the potential for significant opportunities, and the offense can become too predictable.

Is GB overly scripting WR routes? Is this simply inexperienced WRs? Is it simply a matter of time when WR and QB get that chemistry? Or, as is it simply Rodgers overly cautious in Al's mindset? Please, someone, tell me the authoritative truth.

Thanks for the insights Al. This has become my favorite CHTV column.

I particularly appreciate the props for Bulaga. That was a warrior playing when his team needed him the most.

It seems to me that this Packers team is dependent on opposing teams making errors. Interceptions by our defense, Rodgers capitalizing on "free plays" etc

I am not convinced that this Packers team can beat a decent team, that plays a fundamentally solid, mistake free game

I would like to see a breakdown of the Packers on 2 Nd down plays I think that’s when they have the most negative plays either a loss of yardage , a penalty or just no gain which results in a 3 rd and long . I believe this is the problem. Negative 2 Nd down execution.

I hate to keep harping on the 3rd and long, 3 and whatever for that matter,but I must.

Is it just my imagination that whenever there's a third-and-long we go for a play that'll yield a handful of yards, but yet when we're third and one, and we could use that very same play we go for the deep shot.

Bulaga is well deserving of your Warrior designation.

For him to suit up and play the whole game so soon after his latest injury is testimony to giving his all for the team!

Following his injury, in the past week Gute promoted T Yosh Nijman from the practice squad to the active roster and also signed veteran free agent tackle Jared Veldheer to the team.

Those signings sure suggested the Pack expected Bulaga to be out for a couple games so, to see Number 75 slugging it out last Sunday was a welcome sight!

I think we're taking what the defense is giving us, but don't have the players to make the plays. Jones used to be that player , but we can see that teams are really focusing on him. My hope is that Lazard is becoming that other reliable option.

"That's how conservative he's become."

He did actually throw the ball over the several times for good success last week. Is that a sign of things to come or is it just sign they where playing a poor defense?

I will need to see it more often to not assume the latter.

I posted this on Twitter yesterday

Replying to
@JasonPerone
Fear of throwing an INT can put your team at an offensive disadvantage more than throwing the ball into areas of risk.
The former reduces the playbook where the latter keeps it open. Naturally,who the QB is figures in greatly.

Rodgers doesn't see himself as the QB that can make those risk throws as he once did and that self belief has dwindled every year.

The lack of separation by WR's,which Rodgers and many fans use as reason for offensive struggles, may be a derivative of Rodgers FEAR of the INT and defense of WR's is easier because of it. They can concentrate on the lower risk routes they know Rodgers WANTS ONLY to throw because of the INT FEAR.

Naturally,when Rodgers does connect on a high risk pass,this is immediately discarded as unreasonable which is another issue...Most are too quick to dismiss what has become so readily available visibly and backed up by the stat of 0.4 as noted in the tweet used in the article.

Al, I was also at the game with a few of the DAVs who I work with at a veteran support organization. Although the view from that section is not as majestic as yours upstairs but at least it's covered from the elements.

In any case I think the issue with our passing game is a combination of factors. The first is the receiving corps. Except for Adams they do not run their routes very sharply. The other issue is they do not know what to do when Rodgers extends the play although Lazard and Graham are better than the others at the scramble drill. The other factor is the OL. On some plays the protection breaks down almost immediately and allows a defender through virtually untouched leaving Rodgers no time to get his progressions. Then there is Rodgers himself. I think there are 2 issues with him, first his aversion to poor decisions with the ball and secondly he is still learning the new offense with a receiving score that is relatively inexperienced at reading defenders. When Rodgers was having his best days he would discuss how the game had "slowed down" for him. Maybe with the new offense the game has not yet "slowed down" for him especially when it comes to throwing over the middle. Finally I think that Rodgers and the offense miss Cobb a lot. Rodgers always seemed to find him sitting in a hole in the defense. To me that is what this offense is missing the most. A player who knows how to get open with good hands. We need another player like Cobb but that can't happen until next year a least.

As for 3rd downs we need to get better results on first and second down and we need to cut down on the penalties. The interior of our OL is better than last year but still not as effective as it needs to be. Linsley's play this season has been disappointing to say the least.

Everything else is spot on as usual AL. Go Pack Go! Thanks, Since '61

Al can someone do an assessment of the Packers 2 Nd down efficiency I feel this down is where they struggle the most which leads to 3 rd and long, I despise the 2 Nd toss that usually results in no gain or a loss , something MM ran on a regular , thanks

I see several dangers in your assessments. 1. Bulaga the warrior? He's in a contract year. He's finding a way out against speed rushers. Which he can't handle anymore. Yes he's are best RT. But I say he's playing possum. 2. Kevin King; He's a good CB and good things happen when he's in there. He's a keeper. I believe that when the safety play improves. His play will be less problematic. 3. For Arron Rodgers to be more of a gambler. One must have the protection from the OL. Were Still seeing Mistakes and penalties that we shouldn't. 4. Turn-overs. Don't expect them against the better Qbs. Until they stop teams without Turn-overs, This defense isn't going to get better.

The big question: After debacles against the 49ers and Chargers, does Aaron Rodgers see the real need for improvement in the offense, or is he determined to go with business as usual?
We can appreciate the great turnaround for the Packers this season, and the huge role of Rodgers as a true star leading the team to nine big wins; and yet we can also acknowledge that the offense has been frustratingly choppy this season, and seemingly overmatched against the top defenses in the NFL.
Rodgers is still stellar enough to pull off the big plays that overcome flaws and result in victories; but those plays aren't going to happen enough to beat the likes of the Vikings, Seahawks and 49ers.
While we can rightly show some patience in the development of a new offense with new players, we can reasonably expect some improvement in crafting a short game that moves the chains on a consistent basis.
I would like to see an increasing artistry of formations and motions and deceptions, with a variety of players involved in various parts of the field -- and the long strikes interspersed with ingenuity.
So the key seems to be whether or not our great QB has the "vision" to embrace the little things that are necessary for big victories against the best opponents.

Great write up, sir!

Here is my feeling on Kevin King. He is pretty young, which is good news. But the bad news, is that I don't really see a LOT of improvement game to game. I remember when the whole HaHa Clinton-Dix vs Amos conversation was going on, a thing I was big on and still am, is the fact that HHCD is a "spectacular" safety and Amos is a consistent safety. HHCD makes big spectacular plays that show up in the stat columns, but blows coverage all of the time which doesn't always show up. Anyway, I see King sort of following that path where he can make big spectacular plays, and does, but then just isn't consistent game to game. I know turnovers are a huge point of discussion with the Packers D, but I would give up a little of the spectacular-ness with Kevin, and see a lot more consistency in coverage.

Our defense has fallen off pretty hard as the season goes on. We still have guys performing in huge ways, but the overall performance has been quite lackluster. I love the spot we are in, but I fear we may not end up with the home playoff game.

I'm very excited to see how this thing goes for the next few weeks, and I am even more excited about our performance this year. There were a lot of question marks heading into the season, but we look GOOD. There are flashes of bad, but overall the Packers are back!

This question of throwing over the middle might get some clarity if we define what the middle means. I suppose probably more than the hash marks but how much more? How far down the field is this middle versus something else? For instance were the two bombs to Lazard considered middle of the field? I've looked around to see if there are any stats on where each QB throws passes but have not found anything yet but if someone out there has that stat then we can really make progress on how shy, if at all, Rodgers is about throwing to the middle, whatever middle on chooses to define.

If AR stops trying to fake out the D with a hard count (not working anymore) and gets rid of the ball sooner, many of the O penalties will go away. He's a great QB and we are lucky to have him. But he is getting paid big time so he's got to learn to change too. Stop with the 3rd and 2 long throws. How many times has that worked this year? And stop underthrowing MVS.

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