Can Brian Gutekunst Three-peat?
Since he became GM, the Packers' drafts have consistently improved.
Like much in life, success in the NFL is about making progress. Are teams, players and coaches generally improving, stagnating or regressing over time? We keep score in the simplest way possible — wins and losses — but in a given week, or even a season, the difference between Ws and Ls can be luck, injury, officiating or other factors beyond anyone’s control.
Steady improvement is the antidote to that variance, from a lineman’s footwork all the way up to roster building and cap management by the front office. And while improvement doesn’t always happen in a straight upward trajectory, progress over time gets you to the top. Crucially, it also means that you are learning from your mistakes. So as Brian Gutekunst nears his seventh draft as GM, I thought it would be interesting to look back and ask: Is he getting better at this?
The short answer is yes, but what surprised me is just how unusually linear his progression has been, particularly given how many uncertainties there are in trying to project how a college kid will fare as a professional. For this exercise, I’m giving one point for every draftee who became a starter for more than one season, or if it’s obvious they are starters but got injured. I give fractional points for rotational or depth players who have stuck around for a couple of seasons or more. Occasional appearances or less get zero.
Gute’s first draft was 2018, and it started with a bang, first trading down with the Saints to collect a bunch of draft capital, and then jumping back up to nab Jaire Alexander. When healthy, the man is a star. Unfortunately, Gute mostly whiffed on the rest of his 10 picks. MVS couldn’t catch consistently, and the rest were JAGs (Just-a-Guys) like Josh Jackson, Oren Burks, J’mon Moore and EQ St. Brown. Score one for the Jaire pick, and one for MVS, for a total of 2.
The next year, Gute took Rashan Gary with the early first-rounder he got from New Orleans in the previous year’s trade, a clear win. Next was Darnell Savage, who flashed before flaming out, followed by a big hit with Elgton Jenkins. Everyone else (Sternberger, Keke, et al) faded away. With one each for Gary and Jenkins, we’ll give Savage a .75, for a total of 2.75.
In 2020, Gute shocked the world with the Jordan Love pick, which I think we can safely say now was a huge score. The rest of the class included A.J. Dillon (1), Josiah Deguara (.25) and Jon Runyan (1), for a total score of 3. (It should be noted that the Packers hold onto their draft mistakes longer than many other teams, so these numbers are slightly inflated.)
The 2021/Covid draft probably should be tossed out completely, but every team faced the same challenge. Gute went with Eric Stokes, a bust so far. Josh Myers was next, a starter who has improved marginally from a lousy beginning. TJ Slaton has seen some rotational playing time, as did Royce Newman, the latter to ill effect. The only other player to stick was Isaiah McDuffie, who is currently the team’s second off-ball linebacker, out of two. This should be the year we find out what his ceiling is. I’m giving Myers and McDuffie a point each, with Slaton and Newman .25 each, for a total of score of 2.5, a slight step back.
Gute came roaring back in 2022, with eight out of his 11 picks securing roster spots and likely sticking around awhile. I have my doubts about how much Devonte Wyatt (.5) and Sean Rhyan (.5) will play over time, but I don’t doubt they will be depth pieces. Meanwhile, Gute nabbed Quay Walker, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Zach Tom and, most amazingly, David Bakhtiari’s apparent replacement in Rasheed Walker at pick 249. I’m giving a total of 6.
Then came last year, when 10 out of Gute’s 13 picks look like significant contributors. Obviously it’s harder to say anything for sure the more recent the draft, but it will be a surprise if Lukas Van Ness, Luke Musgrave, Jayden Reed, Tucker Kraft, Dontayvion Wicks and Karl Brooks aren’t core pieces going forward. Carrington Valentine, Colby Wooden, Anders Carlson and Anthony Johnson Jr. are maybes. Total score: 7.
That’s steady improvement, and a clear indication of Gutekunst and his team have been making the right scouting and draft-strategy adjustments over time. So much so, in fact, that it will be hard to exceed that 2023 number. But even getting close would put Gute and the Packers in some rarified air of three consecutive top-tier drafts. The GOAT remains the Seahawks of 2010-2012, with home-run drafts that powered them to winning the Super Bowl after the 2013 season, and returning to the dance but losing the following year. Among their draftees in those three years: Russell Okung, Earl Thomas, Golden Tate, Kam Chancellor, KJ Wright, Richard Sherman, Bruce Irvin, Bobby Wagner and Russell Wilson. Collectively, these nine players were named to the Pro Bowl 37 times in their careers. They weren't just starters and contributors, they were stars.
So, Mr. Gutekunst, something to strive for. No pressure. GPG.
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Jonathan Krim grew up in New York but got hooked on the Packers — and on hating the Cowboys — watching the Ice Bowl as a young child. He blames bouts of unhappiness in his late teens on Dan Devine. A journalist for several decades who now lives in California, he enjoys trafficking in obscure cultural references, lame dad jokes and occasionally preposterous takes. Jonathan is a Packers shareholder, and insists on kraut with his brats. You can follow Jonathan on twitter at @Jkrim.
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Comments (29)
splitpea1
April 16, 2024 at 03:35 pm
Those Seahawks' drafts were great, but with all due respect, the Steelers' 1974 draft is the GOAT...with a few other HOFers thrown in there during the previous years.
With the exception of the one glaring mistake at center, Gute has pretty much nailed it on offense. I think we all maybe expected a little more from Dillon, but he still has been a useful player and far from a bust.
What we're looking for here with Gute is improvement on the the defensive side of the ball and special teams. If the first has been a disappointment at times and the second has been a disaster seemingly forever, then you're not using the proper evaluations or projection methods. Since I'm the furthest thing from a professional scout, I'll just aimlessly speculate that you have to focus more on physicality, proven tackling ability, technique, instinct, and pride/attitude instead of raw athletic potential.
LLCHESTY
April 16, 2024 at 03:55 pm
💯on that '74 Steelers draft. Even crazier is the draft was 17 rounds back then and they got another HOFer as FA in Donnie Shell. He still has the most career interceptions as SS with 51.
The Packers '58 draft might be 2nd but there are some other candidates.
cdoemel
April 17, 2024 at 12:14 pm
Pretty ridiculous and arrogant of you to judge, “Then you’re not using the proper evaluation and projection methods.” You’re telling career NFL talent scouts to be sure to look at physicality, tackling and character? Ha. Ok pal. I’m sure they appreciate your help. lol.
splitpea1
April 17, 2024 at 03:17 pm
So what are your solutions, "pal"? As fans, we're all entitled to opinions and speculation--and if you don't like mine, you can shove it where the sun doesn't shine, especially when you're not coming up with alternatives and just criticizing other posters--your specialty.
LLCHESTY
April 16, 2024 at 03:45 pm
Be a lot cooler if he did.
Since'61
April 16, 2024 at 05:35 pm
I would say that it is still too early to appropriately judge either of the last two draft classes. at least one more season is needed for the 2022 draft and 2 more seasons for the 2023 draft.
for me at least the question of cute having a 3-peat in draft is at least 2-3 seasons away. Besides a draft 3-peat means nothing with out an SB championship in the short to mid-term future6and preferably an SB 3-peat.
Can we get the draft moved up so that we can get some articles about reality? Thanks, Since '61
Tundraboy
April 17, 2024 at 12:36 am
Yep , I am definitely maxed out with speculation and what ifs until it is about the actual team , the one we have after the draft.
Then we can agonize over more focused what ifs!
cdoemel
April 17, 2024 at 12:17 pm
Agreed. Mostly because I’m sick to death of the know-it-all’s who phrase their posts as if they have the answer, GM’s and career scouts be damned. Laughable.
Coldworld
April 17, 2024 at 05:19 pm
No need to come here then. That’s what this site is, both the writers and those who comment. If all you want to do is blindly follow, try Packers.com, who have to, and spare us your righteous servility.
stockholder
April 17, 2024 at 05:34 pm
I think your there too.
marpag1
April 18, 2024 at 05:10 am
Hey, thanks for laying these big ol' turd posts on the board. Much appreciated.
What's laughable to me is when know-it-all's come on the board and bitch about other people acting like know-it-all's. Funny.
CanPackFan
April 16, 2024 at 06:34 pm
Interesting article. I'd not looked at Gutes draft success this way. I agree that Stokes looks like a Kevin King/injury bust. I am not as in love with Myers as GB management is and hope that they give Tom a shot at center. I agree that the Pack holds onto higher draft picks far too long in most cases. GPG
LambeauPlain
April 16, 2024 at 06:47 pm
I like how Jonathan evaluated Gutey's draft classes. Seems a fair way to do it. And shows interesting results, trends.
This could be a very good draft for the Packers. A few early starters and additional quality depth and future starters.
dblbogey
April 16, 2024 at 06:55 pm
Enjoyed the article. I will take issue with awarding .25 to Royce Newman, is a negative score possible?
TKWorldWide
April 16, 2024 at 07:58 pm
LOL
SicSemperTyrannis
April 17, 2024 at 06:21 pm
Some of those other players deserve more than .25 though, so it balances out. (Or maybe Gutey's score should be even higher?)
RCPackerFan
April 17, 2024 at 08:27 am
Gutey's drafts have not been perfect by any means.
2018 did start out with a bang. Moving down gaining a lot of draft capital and moving back up to only 4 spots from where he originally picked was a genius move. Sure the rest of the pics didn't really turn out well, but Oren Burks is still in the league. JK Scott has become a very good punter. MVS for a 5th round pick was a very good pick and value.
2019 getting Gary was a great pick. He has been a stud. Savage was a good pick also. He was a much better player with Pettine as DC. I'm curious to see how he does with the Jags. Jenkins has been an absolute Stud. Keke was good his rookie year. Hollman is still in the league and Summers was a good special teams player.
2020 the only pick that mattered was Love. And it looks like that was a great pick now. Dillon is back in GB.
2021 was not a great draft. Amari Rodgers was a bust. Newman was ok his rookie year but has not been good since. Myers has been about an average OC. Stokes was great his rookie year but has been injured since. Slaton was a good pick. and McDuffie was a great 6th round pick. He kind of reminds me of Desmond Bishop. A 6th round pick who has flashed good ability.
2022 was his best draft. Getting an extra 1st and 2nd round pick for Adams, they were able to get Walker, Wyatt and Watson with those picks. Rhyan started to earn playing time last year. Doubs was great from day 1. Tom was maybe the best pick of the draft. Enagbare has been a very good rotational player, and hopefully he can come back strong from his injury. Walker came in last year and played ok, he got benched but came back with a renewed focus and was very good after that. They got 6 starters out of this draft.
As good as 22 was 2023 was even better. Van Ness flashed his skills. He is a guy that will look great with Gary for a while. Musgrave, Reed, Kraft and Wicks completely change the offense. Musgrave and Kraft have the potential to form the best TE duo in the league. Reed might be the best WR on the team. But Wicks also might be the best WR on the team. Brooks was an absolute steal in the 6th round. Carlson statistically had a good rookie year. Valentine was another great pick. Anthony Johnson i think could be one of the starting safety's this year. DuBose is a guy that I think could surprise some people this year.
These past 2 drafts they have completely changed the shape of the roster. They have found their top 4 WR's. Their top 2 TE's. 2 starting OL, 3 key DL, Starting LB, Starting caliber CB, also a Kicker. Out of the 24 picks only 2 are no longer with the team. Very impressive what Gutey has done the last couple of drafts.
Bitternotsour
April 17, 2024 at 09:16 am
In my book, a comparison to Desmond Bishop is exceedingly high praise. Desmond Bishop brought the wood.
RCPackerFan
April 17, 2024 at 09:27 am
Very high praise. I loved Bishop from day 1. But I'm not saying he is the next Bishop. Just that he kind of reminds me of Bishop. Both were 6th round LB's. Bishop was a heavier LB, and McDuffie is more athletic. McDuffie's RAS score was 7.32 and Bishops was 5.82.
The part that reminds me of him is the instincts. Bishop was not a fast LB but his instincts put him in the spots to see what was happening before it happened. I see some of that with McDuffie. I have no clue if McDuffie will be more then a backup/rotational player. But Bishop didn't actually start games until his 4th year. McDuffie is entering year 3.
SicSemperTyrannis
April 17, 2024 at 06:25 pm
I'll give McDuffie very high praise. Very interested to see how he does with this DC :)
jvole
April 17, 2024 at 08:59 am
After 2022 and 2023, I wondered if something institutional changed in player evaluation for the Packers? We talk about 'Gute', but it is likely an elaborate, quantitative system with many people involved. Now an article about THAT would be interesting....But shouldn't be released until the Packers have won 2-3 more Super Bowls with Love so that it doesn't help the league.
RCPackerFan
April 17, 2024 at 09:09 am
"After 2022 and 2023, I wondered if something institutional changed in player evaluation for the Packers? We talk about 'Gute', but it is likely an elaborate, quantitative system with many people involved"
I have wondered the same thing. One thing I wondered is if he has a voice in the room that he listens to more then others. Maybe he learned to listen to others more. I have wondered if they maybe changed the way they evaluate players. Or if nothing at all changed.
I just know the last 2 years the drafts have been amazing!
jvole
April 17, 2024 at 10:34 am
Or how much does a 'soul' go for these days? :)
cdoemel
April 17, 2024 at 12:38 pm
I’ve read that in TT’s last couple years he wasn’t involved and on top of things as much. Change often takes time. Maybe after TT, a mini-rebuild of the player personnel dept. took place and that is showing up. Hence the steady climb in the authors “grade” for BG’s drafts. There are 20 people in that dept. with lots of experience. The hubris that some show regarding Packers personnel decisions makes me 🤮.
T7Steve
April 17, 2024 at 10:20 am
The drafts speak for themselves. I think it's the FAs and UDFAs that have set him apart. I questioned the Douglas trade at the time, but getting a 3rd for someone you acquired off a practice squad? Campbel an ALL-Pro? Melton?
Like RCP and jvole above, I'd love to be a fly on the wall and hear where and how he finds all these.
Starrbrite
April 18, 2024 at 11:09 am
Agree T7—it’s his willingness to explore and sign FA’s.
MilkCan44
April 17, 2024 at 03:39 pm
Over all I think Gutekunst has a process and sticks with it, which is a positive. But there's a difference between guys who don't live up to expectations, but still get signed as reserves around the league (like Oren Burks), and ones who just can't play from Day 1 and are soon out of the league (Sternberger, Amari Rodgers, J'Mon Moore, a few others).
When Gute misses, he misses big. And I bet at least the 3 I named were drafted out of "need" at that position.
SicSemperTyrannis
April 17, 2024 at 06:34 pm
Those misses happen when he double and triple dips with the same strategy, right? For example, recently he's tried to find value in late rounds in guys who played really well and then got injured, so their production dropped off and so did their draft position. You can't expect to hit 100% on those, and I doubt anyone in the building expected him to. Getting anyone at all from that strategy who makes a positive contribution is a win, and he's gotten LOTS of those, even if they weren't immediate starters or never played a full season.
The big risk that remains to be seen is #17 Carlson; he could still go either way. He was what, a 6th round pick? On its own that's pretty good! Factor in some hits in round 7 and UDFA and Gutey looks like Einstein, really.
Keep that up and it will help GPG ...
JerryMeagher
April 21, 2024 at 11:07 pm
I believe Gutekunst has the potential to be one of the best GMs in the NFL, and I'm excited to see how he continues to build the Packers in the years to come.