Bears’ Run Game Might Be the Stiffest Test Packers Face All Season
Bears rush into Lambeau on top of the division in thank to their run game.
By Dan Saia
Week 14 in Green Bay is set to be one of—if not the—biggest showdowns of the NFL season to date. I mean, when was the last time the Packers and Bears the leagues oldest rivalry played not only a meaningful game but one for first place. Earlier in the year, when Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers faced off against the Packers on Sunday night in Pittsburgh, that game was billed as a marquee matchup, but the Packers cruised to a comfortable second-half victory, and it wasn’t as close as the final score indicated. Since then, the Steelers have faded and are currently on the outside looking in at the playoff picture.
The Bears, on the other hand, are leading the NFC North, making this a true first-place matchup. Add in the fact that Chicago currently holds the NFC’s No. 1 seed, and the stakes rise even higher.
When the Packers played the Steelers, Pittsburgh didn’t do any one thing particularly well. They were simply a decent team led by an old Packers legend, and outside of Rodgers turning back the clock, didn’t present much that should have scared Green Bay. The Bears, however, possess a superpower that should keep Matt LaFleur and Jeff Hafley up at night: their run game. Chicago’s rushing attack has become a dominant force, and the Packers must solve it if they want to walk out of Lambeau in first place.
On the season, the Bears are averaging 153.8 rushing yards per game, ranking No. 2 in the NFL behind the Bills (155.7). They’re also producing a staggering 4.9 yards per carry with a +0.05 EPA per rush, which leads the league. Their performance last week against the Eagles was particularly impressive. In that Black Friday matchup, Chicago marched up and down the field for 257 rushing yards in just over three quarters. It’s rare for both primary running backs to eclipse 100 yards in the same game, but Kyle Monangai and D’Andre Swift did exactly that. Chicago wore out the Eagles’ front and controlled the game from start to finish.
The Packers must limit the Bears on the ground, or Sunday could look a lot like last Friday did for Philadelphia. One advantage for Green Bay is that they’ve generally been very good against the run this season. They are currently tied for seventh with the Colts in rushing defense, allowing 98.3 rushing yards per game and nine rushing touchdowns. Against several big-name running backs this season, Green Bay has shut down most of them. Only one running back has surpassed 100 yards against the Packers: Carolina’s Rico Dowdle in Week 9.
The Bears will likely want to replicate Carolina’s game plan: slow the game down, keep Jordan Love and the Packers’ offense on the sideline, and control time of possession. While Caleb Williams has shown improvement from last season, he continues to struggle with accuracy and currently sports a 58.1% completion rate, the lowest among quarterbacks who have taken at least 50% of their team’s snaps. Chicago wants to take the ball out of his hands and put pressure on their running backs to carry the load. If that’s their plan, the Packers need to copy their approach from last week.
On Thanksgiving against the vaunted “Sonic and Knuckles” duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery—arguably the best 1-2 punch in the league—the Packers held them to 119 yards on 28 carries. Green Bay has been particularly effective against Gibbs this season, holding him to under 100 total yards on 29 combined carries in their two meetings. Monangai and Swift are two good backs, but neither is on the level of Gibbs. In that Thanksgiving matchup, the Packers successfully contained Detroit with a strategy built on aggressive linebacker play, disciplined edge setting, and using Xavier McKinney and Evan Williams closer to the line of scrimmage. Expect a crowded box on Sunday, especially early, as Chicago attempts to establish its run game.
Complicating matters, however, is the season-ending injury to defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt. Wyatt suffered a fractured ankle in the Lions game, leaving the Packers without their most experienced and talented interior lineman. Karl Brooks, Colby Wooden, Warren Brinson, and Nazir Stackhouse now make up the top of the depth chart, and the team added size on Wednesday by signing former Giants draft pick Jordan Riley off their practice squad. Riley brings a 6’5”, 338-pound frame and some run-stopping talent. In 20 career games, he has 12 tackles and 3 tackles for loss. Even with Riley added, it’s an inexperienced group the Packers will be leaning on.
Those five, along with the rest of the defense, will need to step up in a major way to limit Chicago’s rushing attack. The Packers simply cannot let the Bears do what the Panthers did back in week 9 and allow the ground game to dictate terms. And while Green Bay still had every chance to win that game, the Bears are a more talented and better-coached team than Carolina.
The Packers arguably haven’t faced a team all season that does one thing as well as the Bears do when it comes to running the football. If Green Bay wants to seize control of the NFC North—and possibly the conference—they must find a way to contain the Chicago run game. It will be the stiffest test they face all season.
-Dan Saia
Comments (14)
Leatherhead
December 04, 2025 at 02:40 pm
If we score points, the Bears will have to throw. Best way to slow down their rushing offense.
When you take away their strength, they have nothing to fall back on except relative weaknesses. The longer this game remains 3 yards and a cloud of turf, the more it plays to Chicago's strength. But if they're down 17-7, they're going to have to start throwing.
Bearmeat
December 04, 2025 at 03:18 pm
Agreed LH.
The best facet of a team on the field might be the Bears rushing offense. But the next best four are the packers pass D. Packers pass O. packers run d. And Packers run O.
If we don’t turn the ball over and finish a few drives. They’re going to have to play catchup. And we win 10/10 times in that scenario.
Packers 30 Bears 17
LambeauPlain
December 04, 2025 at 04:10 pm
I always do the same exercise Bearmeat, most aptly monikered this week! Packers are the better team on paper.
The bares OL and turnovers are their strength. When they get 2+ turnovers on D, they are 8-0. When the Packers have no turnovers on O, they are 7-0.
It may be as simple as the Packers playing turnover free of on offense and they win the game.
Don't forget STs though. Bares are better than the Packers here...as are most teams. I will be apoplectic leaving Lambeau half frozen if the STs give another game away.
Leatherhead
December 04, 2025 at 06:01 pm
It would be so easy to negate/minimize any Special Teams advantage the Bears might have
1) When punting, punt the ball at the sidelines. I'd rather give up yardage on the punt (which isn't that much) to eliminate the possibility of a long, back-breaking return against the bottom of our roster.
2) When receiving punts, just watch for fakes and then fair catch. If you can't catch it safely, let it hit the ground. A turnover on a punt is a huge play.
3) On kickoffs, I'd just kick it into the endzone and remove any chance of a long return, or a stupid penalty. Let them start at the 35.
4) On returns of kicks, like punts, the most important thing is to not turn it over. Everything else is a matter of a few yards.
So,,,,IF I were playing a team like the Bears, and I was worried about their special teams, I'd just take them out of the game and make them beat us with their offense and defense, where we have clear advantages.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
On that turnover stat you mentioned, I remember back when our QB would turn it over 20+ times in a season, and the rest of the team would add another 10, and we'd have 30+ turnovers.
The Packers, this year, have the fewest turnovers in the league with 7. We score on 45% of our possessions and that's one of the higher ones in the NFC. That's good offense. Despite everything, here it is in December and we have one of the better teams on both sides of the ball in the NFC. Imagine that.
BuckyBadger
December 05, 2025 at 08:42 am
If you don't stop the run you will have less chances to throw the ball. The Bears will try to shorten the game and the issue there is the Packers play at a very slow pace as well.
splitpea1
December 04, 2025 at 03:16 pm
I refuse to acknowledge any Bears "superpower" until I have to, and hopefully that won't happen. But they will probably have some success on the ground, and it's up to us to contain it and not let it break our backs.
On the flip side, the Bears give up an average of 5.2 yards per rush, which is tied with a couple of other teams near the bottom; only the Giants are worse.
Generally speaking, I favor an offensive game plan similar to the one against the Lions: put the ball more often in Love's hands while judiciously mixing in the ground game. Love will have to be careful though, as the Bears lead the league in INTs with 17.
Don't get in a ground slugfest or dogfight with this team, and don't turn the ball over. I'd like to see our superior passing game take charge of this game and win it for us.
LambeauPlain
December 04, 2025 at 03:55 pm
LaFleur seemed to (again) see the light on Thanksgiving Day that he has a developed a good passing QB. The Packers are among leaders the NFL in most +/- explosive plays in the NFL per game...a very key stat for % probability of winning.
Love is the best in the NFL passing on 3rd down. And the bares are the worst bringing pressure on 3rd down. LaFleur knows this. So do they. But they have known their poor pressure rate on 3rd down for many weeks. Go ahead and be predictable on 3rd down. Shouldn't matter at all.
LambeauPlain
December 04, 2025 at 03:43 pm
The bares run, because while sporting the best OL in the NFL (did it in one year!), Big Mr. Johnson has decided his two backs are the best way to put the best OL to work...vs his QB throwing the ball. So his QB runs a lot too, behind the best OL in the NFL.
I enjoy watching good defense, and the Packers have one (the bares do not, even with the turnovers). This is going to be a black and blue Sunday. But not in the trenches per se...it will be the Packers front 7 on D vs the bares front 8 on O.
Hope Walker can go. Will need his speed and tackling to join Cooper's...and I hope a lot of 4-3 with McDuffie, who is looking as good as ever, stuffing run plays. Get a few 3 and outs in the first half and let Love and Co. go work against the bare D.
Get a lead in the first half, or at least by the 4th quarter. Packers are very good scoring in the 2nd and 3rd qtrs this year...among the best in the NFL.
Another fun stat I am hoping shows up on Sunday: The bares are the worst pressuring the QB on 3rd down in the NFL. Love is the best 3rd down NFL passer this season.
Even the best run game thanks to the best OL in the NFL may not be able to overcome that stat.
Coldworld
December 04, 2025 at 04:26 pm
Best OL? That might be a step too far. The Broncos and Colts have a good argument . I know of one source that ranks them the best, but in fact has a lower low on their line than ours and Morgan is likely in the bench. Much of their enthusiasm has more to do with stats that reflect the propensity to move out of the pocket, the large amount of defined moves out of the pocket and the league lead equaling run rate.
Yes, they run far more than we do. They are better than our line had been, but their so is designed in such a way as to make them look a lot better than they are. Be careful, there’s an element of buying what the Bears media are selling to themselves here.
The biggest differential is in run Blocking. They manage 2 yards before contact to our pathetic 0.8. They actually concede pressures at a higher rate than we do. That and similar stats are why other sources have them middle of the pack and is a corollary of Williams holding onto the ball longer than any other regular starter (teams have longer to pressure him and it’s often not in the box). The hype machine has managed done purchase that doesn’t withstand scrutiny.
LambeauPlain
December 04, 2025 at 05:13 pm
After the Pack, I watch the other North Division games the most. I am not buying what media is selling on the OL...they don't have to. I see their play on many snaps. They're good.
So I disagree on the bares OL. It is their team strength. And I don't like it, but they are a rock solid group. They move as a unit, very cohesive. And the unit has stayed healthy from camp to this Sunday.
Their real only weak OL link is the rookie LT so expect a lot of doubling on Parsons on that edge...Gary and Enagbare need to bring it on the right edge...but they have a stud there to go one on one. Run blitzes with the Packer overall speed at LB and S...even Nixon...should be used early. I think it can work. Keep a spy on Williams because he's a really quick, block reading runner.
Leatherhead
December 04, 2025 at 06:13 pm
They have a good offensive line. As I've mentioned, nothing good happens on offense unless people get blocked. And if good things are happening on offense, people are getting blocked. It works both ways.
Chicago has protected the ball and converted 3rd downs and scored points....they're 8th in the league. Other than protecting the ball, the only thing they're good at is running. They run it a lot and it works. They're probably the best rushing team in the NFC. They're a mediocre passing team.
Defensively, Chicago is mediocre-to-bad in a lot of metrics. The most important metric, points, has them 27th in the league. If the Packers offense makes it out of the locker room and gets to work, it'll kind of put a kink in any plan Chicago has to run it a lot.
HawkPacker
December 04, 2025 at 03:54 pm
I always fear the Bears as there is so much pressure on ME. I hate to put up with the Bear fans BS if we lose, so we need to win this game.
Also, remember we play them at their place as well so we need this one!
pantz_bURp
December 04, 2025 at 05:55 pm
It may, but at the end of the game they'll be labeling our running back room Prune Juice!
* we got the runs and nothing stopping us.
E-x-l-a-x,
Nostradumb@zz
And, not that I ever want to see fighting...especially amongst coaches...But, this is the first time I actually feel good about Coach LaF fist-tu-cuffing with da Bears Coach. I also think he could put a hurting on the Dolphins Coach if need be. So there is that.
White92
December 04, 2025 at 09:01 pm
Don't turn the ball over, and the Packers win the game. Chicago has been very fortunate to win several of their games. That said, you make your own luck. It'll be the same as all year. The only team to beat the Packers this year has been the Packers.