Around the NFC North: Rookie Starters

Which NFC North team needs the most from its draft picks? 

Each of the teams in the NFC North had clear roster holes going into the draft. Even the Vikings, who were 13-4 last season and had very little draft capital, should expect a lot of snaps from rookies this year. Let's go over which players should impact each team the most.

Minnesota Vikings

The clear answer for Minnesota is their first-round pick, Jordan Addison. Addison was the best receiver in college football in 2021 and may have single-handedly gotten Kenny Pickett drafted in the first round. He took a step back in 2022 and then fell in the eyes of most draftniks even further following the combine. The Vikings' Adam Thielen replacement came in at just 173 pounds at the combine, a 3rd percentile number. He didn't breach the 60th percentile on any combine measurement. 

Addison will be tasked with taking advantage of opposing defenses that are focused on Justin Jefferson. Look at how Green Bay stopped the Vikings in the second game last year: All-Pro corner Jaire Alexander followed Jefferson around and they kept a safety over the top. If Addison can translate any of his route-running prowess from Pitt to the NFL he can be a productive number 2 right away for Minnesota. If NFL corners are able to strong-arm him, don't be surprised to see the Vikings' offense crater this year. 

Speaking of the Vikings' offense, if the team does trade Dalvin Cook after June 1, seventh-round pick DeWayne McBride has an outside shot at becoming the starter. 

On defense, the team beefed up their secondary in the third round with a couple of guys who will need to prove themselves to start in Brian Flores' scheme and took defensive tackle Jaquelin Roy in the fifth. Roy may be competing with Dean Lowry for a spot inside, which we all know could make for an easy battle.  

Detroit Lions

The Lions shocked the league by taking players at non-impact positions with both first-round picks and then doubling down with a move tight end, slot corner, and 57-year-old injured QB in the second. The sadder part is that it's possible that none of those picks will have a substantial impact this season. 

Gibbs, the RB, will likely be a third-down back/returner in his first season. Campbell is an athlete ready to be molded more than a finished product. LaPorta is undersized for an NFL tight end and played on one of the worst offenses in CFB history in college. Branch is a double of one of the Lions' biggest free-agent signings, Chancey Gardner-Johnson. And, finally, Hooker isn't expected to be ready to play by the season, much less beat out Jared Goff.

This isn't necessarily a bad draft strategy for a team. The Packers have taken their share of running backs (AJ Dillon, Eddie Lacy), linebackers (AJ Hawk, Quay Walker), slot corners (Darnell Savage), and project tight ends (Luke Musgrave) in the first two rounds, it's just that usually you do this when you're satisfied with your roster and can invest in players who will develop. The Lions are telling the league that they think they are contenders and don't need to use the draft to fill immediate holes. 

Is that true? Not according to PFF ratings. The team has three players with season-long ratings over 80 and one over 81. For comparison, the Packers also have three, and David Bakhtiari, Elgton Jenkins, and Christian Watson all just missed the mark.    

Chicago Bears

You could argue the Bears had the weakest roster in the league prior to the draft, and they made use of their many picks. 

Right tackle Darnell Wright could immediately be the team's best offensive lineman. Gervon Dexter has the potential to be the 3-tech that Matt Eberflus's defense needs. Tyrique Stevenson could start at corner from Week1. Roschon Johnson was considered to be one of the steals of the draft by many. Tyler Scott is a Darnell Mooney clone. 

The Bears have the opposite problem as the Lions. They correctly evaluated their roster and decided to lean heavily on draft picks. Don't be surprised if all of the players I mentioned and a few who I skipped over are among the top 5 rookies at their position in snaps next year. The Bears are going to throw a bunch of rookies out on the field and sink or swim. 

On one hand, it will allow them to discover right away if any of these players are blue chip types who are worthy of long-term investment. On the other, these players won't have much time to adjust to the speed and violence of the NFL. They could very easily develop and retain bad habits from being forced to play a lot right away without much in the way of veteran leadership. 

 

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Mike Price is a lifelong Packers fan who recently moved form Utah to Stoughton (a Madison suberb). You can follow him on twitter at @themikeprice.

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2 points
 

Comments (15)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
Vachio's picture

May 15, 2023 at 05:46 pm

I didn't realize the lions drafted Peyton Manning...

7 points
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LambeauPlain's picture

May 15, 2023 at 06:11 pm

Don't underestimate the value of over 35 years of NLF experience...

3 points
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splitpea1's picture

May 15, 2023 at 05:58 pm

We do! Being thin at OLB, WR, and barren at TE before the draft, our first four picks are going to need to contribute by necessity. The same is almost true along the DL after losing two veteran players. I'm happy to see a more accelerated version of draft and development--bring on the "yutes"!

4 points
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Leatherhead's picture

May 15, 2023 at 06:12 pm

Unless it's a QB taken early , or a stud RB, a rookie usually doesn't make that huge of a difference in a year. There were exceptions, like Randy Moss, or Lawrence Taylor, but football is the quintessential team sport and one guy just doesn't make that much of a difference unless he's a guy with the ball in his hands all the time.'

Here's another thing about rookies: They're playing against guys who are more mature physically, technically, etc. who are more experienced. They're at a disadvantage, even if they're good players like Walker and Wyatt from last year, or Gary, or even Kenny Clark.

Minnesota's selection of a superduper WR to pair with Jefferson, so that Cousins has more targets, is genius. It allows the Vikings to ride the arm of Kirk Cousins even more. Weapons for Cousins. Their defense couldn't stop a wet fart last year and they've lost ZSmith, one of their better players. But hey, they've got Cousins, and Cousins has weapons.

Chicago got Roschon Johnson and Darnell Wright, and if they can run the ball for a few yards and give Fields a rest, they'll be better. Fields is the most exciting player in the division with the ball in his hands, but ultimately people like that break, and he's going to break too.

Detroit. Jeezus. They just keep throwing me softballs. I've already detailed their long history of drafting crappy DBs, so I won't recap that, but Swift and Williams accounted for a helluva lot of snaps and yards last year and now it's all in the hands of one guy,Gibbs. If he's healthy,he'll get the ball a lot and he'll have some nice plays. He'll be in the ROY conversation, but he won't help the Lions win more games. Their defense is terrible and Goff will never be better than average, and Detroit is just destined to be crappy forever, even when they have guys like Sanders and Megatron and Suh.

Musgrave, Kraft, and Reed should all get substantial time on the field for us, but our big guns are still going to be Watson and Jones. Doubs and Dillon are the complementary weapons, and the ball is going to stay in their hands for most of our plays, probably about 45 or more. Hopefully a couple of the rookies will achieve 'complementary' status this year. I disliked the Reed pick because he's got such a small catch radius, but the more I've learned about him the more there is that I like. He's going to get his opportunities early.

We've also got Doubs and Toure who might be improved in their second season. That would stop teams from shifting too much coverage to Watson's side of the field, and he's the guy we'd really like to throw to the most.

3 points
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Untylu1968's picture

May 16, 2023 at 06:13 am

If you can come up with a defense to stop a wet fart, please share! It's an unstoppable force, so I've heard...💩👖

2 points
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T7Steve's picture

May 16, 2023 at 08:43 am

It might be the next great offensive scheme. Who would want to even try to stop a "wet fart"? A whole new meaning to "stink up the place".

0 points
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BirdDogUni's picture

May 16, 2023 at 02:02 pm

*You forgot maybe the best kept secret in the league.

Bo Melton...

Running a 4.34 at Indy is like sub 4.3 at any pro day. Indy isn't the fastest track, so Gutey stealing Melton off of Seattle's practice squad was a stroke of genius, IMHO.

Melton and Reed are almost identical, except Bo is slightly faster and has 1 year of NFL experience behind him. IDK if Bo will amount to anything, but he could easily become a Super-Star if the Stars in fact align for him.

1 points
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Boneman's picture

May 16, 2023 at 06:01 am

This draft emphasizes why the Pack has dominated the NFC North.

The Bears got rid of their best running back and will replace him with a 7th Round pick. Then they traded down not once but twice before taking a … right tackle. Good luck.

The Vikings took a 125 pound non-athletic slot receiver and who else?

The Lions are most perplexing of all. Trade or release 'both' of their running backs from a fairly productive (for the Lions) backfield, let your number two receiver walk (Chark), trade your TE for a bag of doughnuts (Hockenson) then overdraft their replacements. I would say 'same old Lions' except this is even worse, even for them! Oh well they got a 'rah, rah' coach to get them to play above their heads...

Pack wins this division and it's not close.

3 points
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CPerk's picture

May 17, 2023 at 04:16 am

Keep on dismissing the Lions and we’ll keep on dismissing GB from the playoffs. Both sides of the ball got better thru draft and free agency. The Lions top 4 picks ranked at the top of their positions. Lions are the new Division King of the Jungle!!

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CPerk's picture

May 17, 2023 at 04:16 am

Keep on dismissing the Lions and we’ll keep on dismissing GB from the playoffs. Both sides of the ball got better thru draft and free agency. The Lions top 4 picks ranked at the top of their positions. Lions are the new Division King of the Jungle!!

0 points
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Coldworld's picture

May 16, 2023 at 09:34 am

Two questions:

Who in the North had the best D?

Who in the North has a scary O?

On paper of course at this point. Sorry Lions, I’m not impressed beyond your OL. If your rookie rusher can’t repeat, you take a step back took none forward. Chicago is almost as reliant on rookies as we are and a gifted athlete but very questionable passer at QB. The Vikings have a rookie WR whom I’m very happy we didn’t at that draft price. I prefer our pick and that surprised me. They have one great WR and a lot of questions over Cook. Their D scares no one and their rush declined.

All the makings of a bad year for the North. Amidst that we are the wild card. Raw, untested, new system most likely, unknowns abound and extend to what we really are in coaching terms on both sides of the ball. It’s going to be fun and unpredictable, but we are potential wreckers of the hopes of all 3.

1 points
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BirdDogUni's picture

May 16, 2023 at 02:17 pm

*We will have the best Defense, despite Joe Barry, not because of him.

*We will have a scary offense, once the kinks are ironed out...

Watson & Doubs outside and Melton and Reed in double slots. Jones out of the backfield. I want to see the team that has 5 guys fast enough to cover those five. No way Love can't find a mismatch. Add Musgrave down the seam on a delay and it's "Katie bar the door!"

; )

1 points
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CPerk's picture

May 17, 2023 at 04:06 am

Based on comments, sounds like Packers fans are still hurt by Detroit sweeping them last season and embarrassing them on National TV by keeping them out of playoffs. Lions filled positions of need. Y’all keep on being arrogant and thinking same old Lions. The new management is on point and defense is greatly improved. Lions actually had a top 10 defense the 2nd half of last season. Looking forward to sweeping the Pack again!

0 points
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T7Steve's picture

May 18, 2023 at 11:36 am

I get it already!

At least the Packers have the best fans.

You're allowed to spout, after the three-game streak over the last 30 years. I'll give you that.

The worst game I remember was the one where Mason missed about 12 field goals and extra points.

0 points
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greengold's picture

May 18, 2023 at 12:02 pm

Not gonna happen.

Your Lions “new management” drafted like they had Matt Millen on speed dial.

1 points
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