Around the NFC North: 2024 Week 9

Hello darkness, my old friend.  

Everything is awful. Jared Goff and the Lions beat the Packers in Green Bay for the third year in a row and, even worse, now we have to hear about it for two weeks before the Packers play again. At least there's always money in the banana stand (the bears still suck and we can make fun of them). 

Bears

The Bears got smacked by the Cardinals 29-9. 

Game Notes

  • The formerly bad Cardinals defense had Caleb Williams in the torture chamber on Sunday, pressuring him constantly. According to Ben Solak, the Cardinals average pressure rate this season had been 26% prior to this game. They pressured Williams on 46% of his drop backs and 16 different Cardinals had at least one pressure. I don't know if 16 different Packers even have a pressure on the season. Williams did not handle it well, finishing 22/41 for 217 yards and no TDs. Usually QBs either have a high average yards per attempt and low completion percentage (because they're throwing the ball further downfield) or the opposite. Williams had a low completion percentage and a low yards per attempt. Meh and double meh.  
  • D'Andre's Swifts long on the day was a pedestrian 13 yards and, shockingly, he managed just 51 yards on 16 attempts. Last week we talked about how Swift commonly has a just OK game and then somehow hits a big run that makes up most of his stats so all defenses need to do is take away the big run. I'm not saying I could be an NFL defensive coordinator. 
  • The Bears' defense did give up plenty of long plays, including three different players with a run of at least 15 yards (including the tight end???) and four different players with a catch of at least 15 yards. Not great! especially not great when your whole defensive scheme is supposed to make teams dink and dunk. 
  • Ancient safety Kevin Byard led the team in tackles (never a good sign) and added a sack as well. The Bears had a couple other sacks but no other major defensive stats. They gave up 154 pass yards, which isn't bad, and 213 rush yards, which is. 
  • It's a foregone conclusion that the Bears will be searching for their ideal Caleb Williams whisperer at head coach this offseason, we need to get the prayer circle started now that they won't end up with Ben Johnson. 

 

 

Vikings

The Vikings hung on for a 21-13 victory over the Colts. 

Game Notes

  • Another game of Dr. Jekyl and Sam Darnold. When pressured, his PFF grade was 59.8 (and he threw one of two picks), when kept clean his grade was 81.5. A pretty stark contrast for the sixth-year quarterback. It's also worth noting that four of the 13 pressures were converted to sacks - a 30.8% rate. For comparison, Jordan Love with a strained groin was also pressured 13 times on Sunday and wasn't sacked once. To be fair, Love did throw one of the worst pick sixes ever on a play where he was pressured, but who doesn't have a Will Levis moment every now and then or even every single week for like 8 games in a row. Anyway, Darnold, again, looked like a premier QB when kept clean and amassed 290 yards and 3 TDs. If the Vikings can keep him clean consistently, he could be a good playoff QB. It's a big if. 
  • It was the second week in a row that Aaron Jones didn't offer a ton of help in the run game - he had just 64 yards on 21 carries and another 18 yards on four catches. 25 touches is a lot for Jones and to only get 82 yards out of it is rough. 
  • Justin Jefferson is what makes this offense go and he turned in a 137-yard performance. Josh Oliver, Jordan Addison and Jalen Nailor had the TDs. 
  • The defense rebounded a little from a few bad performances, but it's worth noting that they did it against a 40-year-old QB who couldn't run 20 years ago in the CAAFC. Jonathan Greenard had another two sack game and Andrew Van Ginkel was impactful as a mugging inside linebacker. Every week it's more annoying that the Vikings got these two guys in free agency and the Packers spent first-round picks on Rashan Gary and Lukas Van Ness who combine for diddly van squat in the pass rush category.  

Lions

The Lions beat the Packers, 24-14. 

Game Notes

  • For the second week in a row, the Lions were massively out gained and still won comfortably. At least it wasn't by 30 plus this week. Jared Goff completed 18/22 for 145 yards and a TD. May not seem like much but it was enough. Jordan Love completed 23/39 passes for 273 yards and a pick. Love also had several bad drops from receivers. Those 39 passes could've easily turned into 325 yards or more but what ended up mattering was that both QBs throw a TD to the same team and it was the wrong one for Love. 
  • The Lions did what they always do on the ground - pound the rock with David Montgomery in the first half and then break a few big ones with Jahmyr Gibbs in the second half. The Packers did surprisingly well against the Lions defense that is built to stop the run - totaling 138 yards on 23 carries (14 more yards than the Lions on nine fewer carries) but had to abandon the run in the second half because first-half screw ups put them down multiple scores. 
  • Pressure wise, the Lions were the clear winner, pressuring Jordan Love 13 times against just seven pressures on Jared Goff. Goff had just 22 yards on those plays and got sacked once, but it wasn't close to enough. 
  • I think right now the two big differences between these teams are discipline and pass rush. The Packers can do everything else the Lions do just as well or better. They proved it in this game. But they can't stop shooting themselves in the foot. The Packers had 10 penalties for 67 yards and the Lions had 5 for 51 - two of those and 30 of the yards came on one play for the Lions. The Packers' penalties killed drives. Likewise, the Packers had five drops on the day and the Lions only had four incompletions. The Lions are a more veteran team and they just aren't making the mistakes the Packers make every week. I don't know what the answer is. 
  • As far as the pass rush goes, it's embarrassing for the Packers. Going into last season I ranked Rashan Gary as the best edge in the division. Now the Lions' premier edge rusher and DPOY candidate goes down and they have three players step up and get just as many pressures as Gary in this game. Alim McNeil, a nose tackle, had five more pressures than Gary. And it isn't just Gary, fellow first-round picks Devonte Wyatt, Kenny Clark and Lukas Van Ness combined for three total pressures. Big money free agent signing and third contract player Preston Smith had none. The Packers D somehow gave up just 17 points in this one against the best offense in the NFL. Imagine what they could do if a single soul on the defensive line was playing well. 

   

 

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Mike Price is a lifelong Packers fan who recently moved from Utah to Stoughton (a Madison suberb). You can follow him on twitter at @themikeprice.

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Comments (28)

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Leatherhead's picture

November 05, 2024 at 11:06 am

OK, this is going to be harder than I thought. Minnesota hasn't quit yet, and the Lions are going to be formidable right to the end, and we're still the youngest team in the league.

The Packers are 6-3, have a bye week, and then resume by playing at Chicago. That's less than two weeks from now, and nobody knows if Caleb Williams will be broken by then, but the first step for the Packers has to be beating Chicago, in Chicago. Following that, we have home dates with suddenly mediocre SF(4-4) and weak Miami (2-6)

Meanwhile, Minnesota plays 3 road games in a row against Jacksonville, Tennessee, and the Bears, but let's look at what's waiting for Minnesota in December: Arizona, Falcons Bears, all at home. Their final 3 games of the season are at Seattle, home against the Packers, and at Detroit. I absolutely can see a scenario where they lose their last 3 games.

Detroit has, IMO, a good schedule between now and the Dec 5 rematch. Any hope the Packers have for a division title has to include a win in Detroit.

The Packers offense is a chunk offense that is error prone. It's 7th in first downs but 6th in penalties. It's 5th most in Turnovers. It's 4th most in passing TDs. We move and we score but we screw up a lot and end a lot of our possessions without getting points. Only 42% of our drives result in points.(and that includes quite a few FGs). We're poor in the redzone,because that's when these penalties and drops are really hurting.

As the Packers start the bye week self-scout, top of the list has to be cutting down these mental mistakes. You just can't go out and take 10 penalties, a turnover, and a half-dozen dropped passes, and then expect to beat one of the better teams in the NFL. Back in the day, we had mistake-correctors like push ups and wind springs, but probably the NFLPA doesn't permit that anymore. These guys need to take a look at themselves. Winter is coming, and it's survival time. There's nothing fun about being out of the race and getting your can kicked when it's cold and windy.

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BuckyBadger's picture

November 05, 2024 at 11:16 am

Miami is a much better team when Tua is healthy. They are a lot better then their record indicates. The same can be said about the 49ers. When they play them they should have most of their weapons back and a healthy Trent Williams. I wouldn't chalk those up as victories just yet.

The other self-scout they should be doing is looking at their pass rush. They have invested way too much in the that front 7 to have these results. If they can't rush the passer games like Miami can get very difficult.

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Minniman's picture

November 05, 2024 at 01:05 pm

Re Love's INT's

Watching the Chiefs-Buccs match one thing that stood out to me was that when Mahomes is scrambling in traffic he either shovel passes or pitches (or throws away) - but rarely (if ever) have I seen him attempt to load and throw short. Similarly for Rodgers.

They also don't try and throw these on 1st and 2nd downs - that JL has a strong tendency to do.

In the case on the weekend, even if JL connected with Jacobs on that ill-fated play, Jacobs is still well behind the LOS, with limited to no screen help.

The good news is that this is coachable - the bad news is why didn't it get coached out of him after the first ill-fated attempt this year?????

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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

November 05, 2024 at 08:05 pm

Worse, this is still the same problem that put the final nail in last season's coffin. I expected this lesson to have been learned.

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Lphill's picture

November 05, 2024 at 11:15 am

Z Darius Smith to Lions, we need corner help , where is Gute?

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splitpea1's picture

November 05, 2024 at 11:16 am

Lions just acquired Za'Darius Smith and a seventh-round pick, and all they gave up was next year's fifth-round pick and a future sixth-round pick.

The Packers are supposedly interested in Saints CB Lattimore. We could certainly use the help here to shore up a major weak spot. Plenty of competition for his services though, and the price might be too high for Gute. On the other hand, it crosses off a position at or near the top of the upcoming draft list.

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BuckyBadger's picture

November 05, 2024 at 11:46 am

Trading for Lattimore doesn't do much for the future and the draft need would probably still remain. He also has a big cap hit. Trading for someone like Lattimore might help this year but at his age you can't expect that to sure up the position for much beyond that. He isn't as young as he used to be and past his prime. Do we really want a $30M cap hit on a guy that isn't what he once was? The game I saw vs the Bucs he looked very ordinary.

I can't imagine Gute trading to take on that contract.

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splitpea1's picture

November 05, 2024 at 12:18 pm

He's gone to Washington for three draft picks.

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BuckyBadger's picture

November 05, 2024 at 11:58 am

Fans always want to see a trade and I get it. It brings some excitement and injects hope that this new face can do something the team has struggled with but the more often than not just waste resources for the future. This team is still one of the youngest in the league and I don't think should mortgage the future just yet. Of all the trades I saw I think Hopkins to the Chiefs was the only one that made sense. They are contenders doing for a historic 3rd Super Bowl (I know Packers have 3 titles in a row, but one was before the SB era) and the move sures up an area they had lots of bad luck with since Hill was let go. The Chiefs aren't worried about the future as they are favorites to win their conference now.

Lions getting Z I understand but good luck stopping the run when he is on the field. They too are in window of their peak opportunity to win a title.

I don't see this as a time for Green Bay to make a move that mortgages future picks for the now. Is a CB going to fix the pass rush? The team is still coming together and I don't foresee any major moves if any at all.

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BuckyBadger's picture

November 05, 2024 at 12:23 pm

Can take Lattimore off the board, he is now a Commander. They gave up too much.

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T7Steve's picture

November 05, 2024 at 12:42 pm

They had that and the cap room to give to go on a run. Rookie QB works wonders for that.

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BuckyBadger's picture

November 05, 2024 at 06:22 pm

I still don't think its a good move. Yes they have the cap space but you just gave up draft picks that you could use to build the future around this young QB. Lattimore is on his way out. Commanders are not winning this year and this doesn't put them over the top and makes building for the future harder.

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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

November 05, 2024 at 08:12 pm

:)

I'm so glad we don't have an owner, much more an "owner group."

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NFLfan's picture

November 05, 2024 at 04:16 pm

@BB-Conversely, is Lukas Van Ness going to fix the Pass Rush?

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BuckyBadger's picture

November 05, 2024 at 06:23 pm

I have to hope he improves. Now he will be starting or at least getting more reps.

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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

November 05, 2024 at 08:12 pm

Not necessarily. There are several other people in this group.

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dobber's picture

November 06, 2024 at 09:12 am

I think Enagbare is playing better at this point.

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T7Steve's picture

November 05, 2024 at 12:40 pm

The Packers loss to the Lions sucks for us fans, but maybe the team can use it to help better than if they'd won before the bye. It never hurts to get slapped in the face, as much as slapping yourself in the face. Winning covers up the errors. Losing magnifies them.

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Lphill's picture

November 05, 2024 at 01:41 pm

maybe not Lattimore but there has to be somebody out there better than Nixon .

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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

November 05, 2024 at 08:13 pm

Gutey's happy with Nixon.

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egbertsouse's picture

November 05, 2024 at 01:43 pm

Preston Smith to Steelers. The Packers are selling, not buying at this point

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Lphill's picture

November 05, 2024 at 01:44 pm

maybe Brenton Cox will get a chance now.

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dobber's picture

November 05, 2024 at 02:02 pm

He should get a chance to be active, unless they lean more into Brooks and Wooden at DE and go looking for another DT (maybe Ford?).

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dobber's picture

November 05, 2024 at 02:01 pm

Yes, they sold P. Smith, but with his contract his days in GB were numbered. They're supposedly close to dealing Andre Dillard, who can't get himself active on game day. They cleared snaps for Van Ness who can do most of--if not all--of what the Packers were getting from Preston Smith this season. This will put Mosby and Enagbare on the field more, too, and might allow all those Brenton Cox fans to actually see him active.

This is hardly "sale" mode.

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13TimeChamps's picture

November 05, 2024 at 02:42 pm

The youngest team in the NFL just got even younger.

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NFLfan's picture

November 05, 2024 at 04:11 pm

Lukas Van Ness needs to talk with his peer, Will McDonald IV about how to pressure/sack. McD has had 8 in 2024.
I'm underwhelmed with GB's choice of LVN to replace Smith.

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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

November 05, 2024 at 08:14 pm

That's not how it works.

Nobody is replacing Preston.

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NFLfan's picture

November 05, 2024 at 09:31 pm

LVN will be the recipient of many of his reps

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