Adams Extension Is Tricky, but Must Be Done
A contract extenstion for Adams will not be easily agreed.
By markoldacres
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Mark Oldacres is a sports writer from Birmingham, England and a Green Bay Packers fan. You can follow him on twitter at @MarkOldacres
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Comments (58)
EddieLeeIvory
August 05, 2021 at 06:34 am
Who chose the font color for this background?
Spock
August 05, 2021 at 09:22 am
Yeah, This article is from a fan who obviously forgot to account for the CHTV green background. I just highlighted the whole article and read it that way. A minor hassle, but that works.
jeremyjjbrown
August 05, 2021 at 11:12 am
Why is the font not managed by CSS?
PatrickGB
August 05, 2021 at 01:07 pm
I figured it out. Nice article nonetheless.
Johnblood27
August 05, 2021 at 06:36 am
Unreadable.
Fix the font or just delete the article.
EddieLeeIvory
August 05, 2021 at 06:41 am
I'm old enough to remember before Sterling Sharpe was even in college.
When we lost Favre's main man, superstar Sterling, we thought we were screwed.
But the other WRs blossomed.
I love Tae. I'm just not sure paying a 30-year old WR that much (Hopkins) money is a winnable formula. Maybe on a franchise tag one year thing.... we'll see.
Stroh
August 05, 2021 at 07:43 am
There is very little chance the Packers or ANY team will give Adams a contract w/ Hopkins extension money for a full contract, Simply that is not the highest paid. 22M or maybe 23M yes for sure. But more than the 27M extension Hopkins signed is not going to happen even if he hits FA.
Adams IMO is like a Fitzgerald. He's not a WR that has been beaten up and his skills, ability and production doesn't rely on speed to get open. So he will remain effective well past his 30th Birthday.
He can posture all he wants for 27M, and I don't blame him for trying, but its extremely unlikely any team will pay him more that 27M per. Highest paid WR is at about 22M.
jannesbjornson
August 05, 2021 at 09:37 pm
Draft a One Pick. They do it every other century.
NickPerry
August 05, 2021 at 07:16 am
"But realistically, the Packers’ success without Adams is probably coincidental and they are undoubtedly better with him than without him."
Hmmmm... Gotta say I disagree. Yes, they're better BUT two games, maybe three is coincidental. When you go 5-0 and IIRC score a boat load of points in those games, it's no longer coincidental. What that is IMO is a MLF scheme at it's BEST, the way the offense is meant to be run.
Packers fans including myself were all over Gute when he failed to draft a WR in 2019 and 2020. But what happened in 2020? The Packers had one of the most balanced potent offenses in the NFL. Like it or not, believe it or not, the Packers are moving towards a run first offense. Jones resigned, Dillion ready to take a much bigger role, and a RB room with Hill and maybe Taylor or Williams gives the Packers a lot of versatility and options.
I don't know what the right thing to do with Adams is. $28 million for a 30 year old WR is a lot of money whether you have a horrible cap situation in 2022 or not. The Packers are clearly all in in 2021. Next season will be the start of a new era, the Jordan Love era with a MONSTER sized, talented, and deep O-Line. A RB room that's as good and deep as any in the NFL, and on paper a pretty damn good Defense.
With a shift towards being a more run oriented offense (at least IMO) in 2022, and a passing game that has proven it came scheme players wide open if you run it the way it's MEANT to be run, and a team with a salary cap in the pooper, Adams may be a luxury the Packers can't afford...Period. Like many said in a piece yesterday...I'm just going to enjoy the ride in 2021 and hope it ends with Championship 14 and not worry about anyones contract. It's been a brutal summer and I'm DONE worrying about next season. GO PACK GO!
scullyitsme
August 05, 2021 at 09:18 am
I keep seeing you and others saying this. Matt Lafleur is going to a run heavy offense. Up to this point that has not been the case. It’s a myth. We ran 45% of the time last year. We have been middle of the pack since he came to town. There’s no evidence to support this. Maybe some shorter throws, and certainly not McCarthy like, but we aren’t special when it comes to running the ball.
Coldworld
August 05, 2021 at 11:23 am
We aren’t going to be an old style run team but we are a much more diverse offense with much heavier back involvement than we were pre LaFleur’s system and we are building to be able to run as the lead weapon if that is needed.
flackcatcher
August 05, 2021 at 12:19 pm
As Nick pointed out, he expects Love to be the QB next year, and it stands to reason with a 1st year starter Lafleur would tilt more toward the run game in his scheme.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
August 05, 2021 at 10:16 am
Simply....I just don't see the need to sign Adam's as talented as he is for any of the money being discussed. With that said, a major factor will be are the Packer's keeping Rodgers, or are they planning to go with Love in 2022? I think this issue has to be resolved before anything is even considered with Tae. If Love is the QB there is NO WAY with the run heavy play action offense that Adam's is going to be targeted nearly as often. No way! Which means the productivity will be less, yet Adam's salary is up. Mathematically it doesn't make any sense to me. I would prefer trading Adam's if we can and get what we can for him. Believe 2022 is the year the Pack may finally draft a WR in round 1, or round 2. Presently, I agree with Nick and many others about the talent we have at WR. 2022, and Amari will be into his second year.
Yes, I too well remember the Sterling Sharpe and Favre situation and Favre became a much better QB when he did not have to constantly force passes to Sharpe. I see the same scenario with Love. Spread the ball around! I do think Tonyan will be key to resigning in 2022.
Coldworld
August 05, 2021 at 11:29 am
I agree. On individual merit you resign an Adams, but football is not like that. It’s about balancing salary/potential/age and timing etc. Alexander is a must extend. Adams is dependent on what we are as a team, If Rodgers stays next year, you find a way of you can without decimating. If Rodgers is gone, you don’t tie up that much and look to develop alongside his replacement. GMs have to look more broadly than just current ability or a franchise will crash fast.
Bearmeat
August 05, 2021 at 07:31 am
I’m all for giving Adams a 3-4 year deal at 22.5 AAV. But he won’t take it. And plus, like you said, he’s at the age when many WRs start to decline. Adams game is not top end speed, but it absolutely is explosive athletic movements in a phone booth - which goes away quickly when it goes. So, I franchise him for 2022 and trade him before the season starts for a 1st round pick.
Guam
August 05, 2021 at 07:43 am
Have to disagree with the author. Paying a 30 year WR $27 million a year on a four year deal when he only touches the ball 8-10 times a game and maybe less as the Packers become more run oriented is just nuts. You can't tie up 13-14% of your cap in one guy who doesn't touch the ball very often. Adams is a great guy, a true professional on the field and off, and I deeply appreciate all he has done for the Packers. But the numbers just don't make any sense. The business decision has to outweigh the emotional decision and the Packers should just take the third round comp pick (or franchise him and trade him for more if possible) and move on.
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
August 05, 2021 at 10:17 am
Completely!
flackcatcher
August 05, 2021 at 12:25 pm
Besides with the Packers being in Cap Hell the next two years, hard choices are going to be made. Adams sits on the wrong side of that metric. If he were just a couple of years younger....
Savage57
August 05, 2021 at 07:43 am
Is it even within the realm of reality to consider the possibility of re-signing Adams without creating so much downstream disruption of the cap and the roster that it's more damaging than it is helpful?
Razer
August 05, 2021 at 08:38 am
This is the crux of the resigning. As Vic Ketchman says "WR - a dime a dozen". Sign one guy to huge money and starve other areas of the team and your cap in the process. I wouldn't even consider it.
stockholder
August 05, 2021 at 07:46 am
Franchise him! He broke off the negotiations. The packers didn't. If he wants Carr- Go to him. Because Rodgers might not be here. And he didn't want to sign or play if he wasn't, ( per whispers.) I say Gute is making a negotiating blunder. Treat Adams like Linsley. Sign what you can. Extend what you can. But don't pay out what you can't afford. Yes , Adams is great. But so was Bulaga, Linsley, Daniels, and Nelson. Have Adams concusions gone to his head? One more and he could be done. I doubt even a mediator could help.
dobber
August 05, 2021 at 08:46 am
" I say Gute is making a negotiating blunder."
I'm shocked.
But you hit on a key point with his injuries and how much you pay a guy who you can expect to miss a couple games.. Between getting his clock cleaned a couple times and annual soft tissue injuries, you have to ask yourself how many games you can expect to get out of #17 each year. It's looking like the over/under is on 14.
stockholder
August 05, 2021 at 10:34 am
I just felt he should move on to other players first now.
jannesbjornson
August 05, 2021 at 09:53 pm
As is likely and Rodgers has a great year he stays and is still ringing the bell. No big cash for a WR who cannot free himself in the hook zone. The outlier on the accountant's neuroses scale is Bhaktiari. Can he return to All- Pro status or has Jenkins taken the belt. Time will tell, but the QB is the straw that stills every drink from the Mimosas to the Old Fashioned red hat specials with rot gut brandy. My money is on the MVP. The rest may walk. Business is Business.
BradHTX
August 05, 2021 at 08:39 am
If I’m the Packers brass, no way do I touch a $27/yr contract for Davante. Don’t get me wrong, I love him as a person and a player. He’s amazing. In a vacuum, he’s probably worth the money (for now).
But next year, when we all know that Rodgers is 95% likely to be gone and Love takes over, Adams probably at best makes the difference between a 9-7 or 7-9 season. Not worth the money.
The formula is there for winning with a new starting QB:
1. Running game - done with Jones/Dillon
2. Tight End - done with Deguara and use some of Adam’s extension money to extend Tonyan
3. Defense - use some more of that $27M to sign a quality free agent DL and ILB, and this could be a formidable D that can keep a noob QB in games
Is a Love-led Packers offense better with Adams than without? Of course. Is it better enough to justify the contract cost? Personally, I doubt it. We’ll see what Gute and Ball think.
dobber
August 05, 2021 at 08:43 am
The time to extend Adams was before the start of the 2020 season (hindsight? No, I was pulling for this hard at the time). He likely would have drawn what would've seemed to be a ridiculous amount of money, but it would've been ahead of the big year he just had, they could've manipulated it to keep his 2021 number down (and facilitate other movees), and if they could've added three years to his final year it would've been manageable cap-wise. Knowing how little they had under contract at the WR position in 2021 and beyond, it seemed like a necessity.
It would've also gotten them out from under his deal a year earlier (before he hit his mid-30s). Unfortunately, Covid happened, nobody knew when football would be played or how much, and the cap implications were a mess. The fact that they didn't try to address this earlier likely means the Packers were thinking they were going to move on.
In the end, I think it cost the Packers a blue-chip player going forward.
Guam
August 05, 2021 at 08:47 am
No one has ever gotten a decision wrong in hindsight Dobber. Unfortunately......
Razer
August 05, 2021 at 08:51 am
Like most of you, I wouldn't throw that much money into a WR, especially when we have already painted ourselves into a CAP corner. But of course it isn't that easy now that Aaron Rodgers is driving the agenda. If Rodgers forced Gutekunst to bring back Cobb - how is Gutekunst going to let Adams walk? I doubt the Packers are interested in sinking 20+ million into one WR so we are back to the same bullshit by year end. Make our run, get our picks and start the rebuild - enough of the last dance nonsense.
TheVOR
August 05, 2021 at 08:56 am
Adams without Rodgers at QB is completely wasteful expensive contract. I really like Adams playing with Rodgers, but him playing with Love? His numbers will drop like a 2 ton anchor in the ocean and he won't be worth the contract. Now if Rodgers was staying, then you'd figure out how to sign the player.
The management created mess at the future of the QB position has really messed up the future of the franchise, can't say enough about how disappointed I am with the front office.
Wouldn't touch a Adams extension without knowing Rodgers is throwing him the ball for the next 4-5 years. My 2..
jannesbjornson
August 05, 2021 at 09:58 pm
Milt Hendickson is saving this inbred frat house cloister at 1265 Lombardi Avenue. He has a strong resume' and could supplant Gutedkunst w/out missing a beat. Best to bring back Andrew Brandt and get the real estate developers out of the haus and return the football people-Win the Big Game, not the Bingo card.
scullyitsme
August 05, 2021 at 09:04 am
The front office seems determined to give Adams a contract, maybe not 27mil but in the 24mil range. It makes no sense if they are moving to love. Kinda feels like they are trying to just keep the fan base happy after botching Rodgers so badly.
dobber
August 05, 2021 at 09:29 am
Have we thought that the weak contract talks between #17 and management (remember that in Adams' interview in June he said they'd only just started general discussions) is not about the fan base, but just to put a pretty face on it to keep #12 happy...or happy enough?
scullyitsme
August 05, 2021 at 11:09 am
Sure, possibly. Your scenario seems like a worse look for the front office then mine. Dealing with players contracts not in good faith would have even larger ramifications.
jannesbjornson
August 05, 2021 at 10:16 pm
The Joe Montana, Jerry Rice scenario?
Roadrunner23
August 05, 2021 at 09:23 am
I agree with most of the comments, if Rodgers re-structures (which is 50/50 at best) then yes either sign Davante or franchise him.
If Love is our QB next season it’s going to be a mini rebuild anyway so no because it would be prohibitive.
Love is going to need to grow with some of the other young WR and most likely several WR draft choices.
Again it all depends on what they do with Rodgers, Davante & him are like pea & carrots
ND
dobber
August 05, 2021 at 09:35 am
Correct me if I'm wrong, but to franchise #17, they'd have to clear enough room under the cap to account for his franchise tag number as part of their 51 on the first league day in March? It could be that the franchise number doesn't count until the player signs the franchise tender, though. Help us out, TGR!
They've got a lot of cap to clear just to get to the anticipated number in March, but that's a lot of extra cap to clear.
Since'61
August 05, 2021 at 11:14 am
There is no point in resigning Adams if Rodgers is gone. The Packers will run more and Adams will get less targets and less receptions. It just would not justify such an expensive contract. I would hate to lose Adams but I think the Packers would be better off to trade him after the season. Thanks, Since '61
13TimeChamps
August 05, 2021 at 10:42 am
But doesn't he become an unrestricted FA after the season...meaning they could no longer trade him? Is there a window between the end of this season and the official start of the new year where they still hold his rights?
Since'61
August 05, 2021 at 11:14 am
13 Times there are 2 possible approaches. First would be to tag him and then trade him.
The other would be to try to trade before his current contract expires. I’m not sure how long after the season that would be but I believe there would be a window between the end of the season and the expiration of his contract.
In any case they should trade him before the draft so they know what they can get in return. Thanks, Since ‘61
Coldworld
August 05, 2021 at 11:44 am
They can apply the tag before FA starts. If they do they gain time to negotiate a longer term deal (a second tag starts to get ludicrously expensive never mind player reactions) or trade him. The problem is that, as Dobber has noted, once they tag him they add that cost to cap totals in full. Since we are about 50 million over with him counted at zero, that means some fairly major cuts of contracted players would need to occur before the new NFL year starts. Which means, if I’m correct, before you can trade other players.
With Rodgers that seems extremely unlikely due to his cap even post any extension due to the effect on the rest of the roster outweighing the benefit. It could be done with cuts and renegotiations but no trades available. Without Rodgers it gets a lot easier but a lot more dubious an investment. I may be confusing this, but the odds seem heavily stacked against it if I have understood the timings correctly.
13TimeChamps
August 05, 2021 at 12:11 pm
Thanks for the info. I wasn't entirely sure when his contract ends in relationship to the new year officially starting. NFL contracts can be a bit confusing.
Whatever approach they take, I have a really hard time seeing him getting anything in the 24-28 million range with GB. I'm thinking 2021 is the end of the AR12/DA17 era unfortunately. Hopefully it ends with our trophy case having a new addition to it.
jannesbjornson
August 05, 2021 at 10:09 pm
Love will not be ready until '23. Rodgers may want to be on the west coast, but the Water is in Wisconsin.
TarynsEyes
August 05, 2021 at 10:14 am
The top 10 highest paid WRs are all non-factors to ensuring their respective teams get to the SB, which is the goal that needs to be a huge factor in the money to be paid to that WR.
Tampa Bay could lose Evans and achieve what they have, an SB,
KC could lose Hill and achieve an SB.
None of the rest got their teams close to an SB appearance because of the money they got paid.
I wouldn't even consider Adams's request/demand for the highest-paid WR and would wait until the season plays out and where the Packers end up as to the goal of being in the SB.
I would also ignore whether or not Rodgers was returning as it would be three straight seasons where neither of them produced an SB appearance, much less a win. Yes, not achieving such shouldn't be laid upon either's shoulders alone, but if they get the money under the premise that they will get the team there, then the blame is on them more so and justifies NOT paying them the money.
It's hard enough to justify the money QBs are getting without winning or appearing in the SB, less winning the Division or being a wildcard, to add the burden of excessively over-paid WRs.
HarryHodag
August 05, 2021 at 10:23 am
Perhaps I should remind the author that while the Packers now have a little cap space this season, they're almost $50 MILLION over the cap next season. That's unworkable by any measure.
If you see all the adjustments the Packers made this year to get under the cap(barely) that means they have little if any wiggle room for next year.
There is no way, as I see it now, that Aaron Rodgers and D. Adams will be on the team next year. I think both of them know that, thus the break off of negotiations with Adams. Rodgers' contract is a type of poison pill, too big to swallow. The trade to Denver is still viable next year for Rodgers and I wouldn't be surprised to see Adams go there via free agency or the Raiders.
No one is questioning Adams ability, that's the reason he's likely to get top dollar value on the market. But there is an end to your resources via the salary cap and the Packers are far beyond it for next year.
I suspect Rodgers, Adams, Preston Smith, Zadarius Smith, Lucas Patrick and maybe Billy Turner,Mercedes Lewis, Kevin King Randall Cobb, Dean Lowry have their contracts for next year on the chopping block. It has to be done as there is no other way after they signed David B. A. Jones, etc. this year.
Sorry to slap a bit of reality to the loyal fans in what could be a very good year for the Packers, but truth is better than fiction.
TarynsEyes
August 05, 2021 at 10:48 am
"Sorry to slap a bit of reality to the loyal fans in what could be a very good year for the Packers, but truth is better than fiction."
It seems you have forgotten with whom you suggest this. Most here dwell in the 'Reality does not exist in this DoJo' mindset.
: )
HarryHodag
August 05, 2021 at 11:36 am
Dojo--A school for training in various arts of self-defense (such as judo or karate).(Merriam-Webster)
A few days on this board and you get quite adept in the art of self-defense.
Dale_Waterstreet
August 05, 2021 at 09:50 pm
I agree with you 100%
Leland
August 05, 2021 at 10:20 am
The way I see it. Pay him and let 3 or more above average players walk. Move on from him and keep more of the above average players.
splitpea1
August 05, 2021 at 11:07 am
Somewhat related: I'm totally on board the pressing the big reset button after this season, but let's see what we have in Love before going there. If he looks good in preseason and maybe some spot duty during the regular season, then go for it....without Adams. We can't keep hanging on to every high-priced player. Gute has done a reasonably good job of turning over the roster so far, and I think we should continue on this track.
HarryHodag
August 05, 2021 at 11:39 am
Perhaps, but my view is regardless of where Love is, Rodgers has to go. Again, he is the MVP and his ability isn't in question. He isn't going to redo his contract again and he will account for nearly 1/4 of the cap by himself. Throw Adams $25 mill into it hypothetically and they would eat up close to 1/3 of it for two players.
Bridgewater would be available as a backup/starter if Love isn't ready to go.
splitpea1
August 05, 2021 at 12:20 pm
OK, so Rodgers goes regardless, but what if Love isn't ready for some reason? Then what--sign a journeyman, draft another QB (ugh!) ? Just waiting for a clearer picture before we make any more big commitments....
jeremyjjbrown
August 05, 2021 at 11:15 am
Adams needs to stop pretending that the numbers in Hopkins contract are real and focus on what the Cardinals are really paying him. Some fans might think that Hopkins really gets 27AAV, but Adams and his agents and the Packers definately know it's not real.
Coldworld
August 05, 2021 at 11:49 am
I agree on the attitude to the Hopkins deal, but in reality nothing will be done until the league resets expectations. In the end it’s what players, teams and agents see as the trend not the math. The WR market needs to settle and that will take time to get a feel for the going rate.
PatrickGB
August 05, 2021 at 01:13 pm
Perhaps that’s why Gutie made the comment about what exactly IS the highest paid player being paid?
jeremyjjbrown
August 05, 2021 at 07:51 pm
I took it exactly that way too.
Packers0808
August 05, 2021 at 02:18 pm
Tag him if needed for the 2 allowable years, he will be 31 and in most cases beyond his prime!
Packers0808
August 05, 2021 at 05:27 pm
I wonder why everyone thinks Cobb is a definite lock. If the Packers plan to trade Rodgers at end of season or Rodgers is for sure leaving, who says that Cobb MAY not be cut before season ends! Not likely to happen but maybe they wanted to appease Rodgers before season to get him back but cut Cobb after wards! Dirty pool but nothing is beyond doubt!
HawkPacker
August 05, 2021 at 09:54 pm
Why not ask GM Rodgers what we should do about Adams contract?