Confessions of a Polluted Mindset - Lets Combine Our Thoughts
The Weekly Packers Brain Drain from Jersey Al.
By JerseyAl
I must apologize for the brevity of this column today and likely the next couple of weeks. As you may or may not know, I'm the editor of the CheeseheadTV Draft Guide and it's "Hell Month" around here as we work on getting this massive project completed. Expected publication date for the guide is April 3rd. We will publish the order link that day.
In addition to editing the CHTV Draft Guide, I'm the guide's analyst for the Offensive Tackle position. I've studied in detail about 15 so far (many more will be studied the next two weeks), and I had myself a true "sleeper" who I hadn't seen mentioned by anyone . But then the combine happened and my sleeper did quite well for himself. Hence, my sleeper is likely no longer toiling in anonymity. Let me see your guesses of who you think it might be in the comments.
I have the entire combine DVR'd but have only seen bits and pieces as of this writing so here's a scattershot of polluted thoughts based on the players I did see and study a bit.
Kamren Kinchens, - A 2.11 RAS? Ouch! I'm going to have to find a new player for the back cover of the draft guide. Any suggestions?
Ennis Rakestraw Jr - Not much better than Kinchens.
Tanor Bortolini - Can this boy play football? I have no idea but damn he medaled in the shorts Olympics!
Cole Bishop - I like the idea of drafting a box safety and looking to free agency or a trade for the post safety spot. It would be much easier for a rookie to step in and start as a box safety and let someone with some NFL experience handle that crucial post safety spot. I hope it works out that way and I like Bishop and his 9.82 RAS athleticism for that box safety role.
Max Melton - I'm all for this if for no other reason than seeing all the stupid "nepo sibling" tweets from twitter idiots. But seriously, his athleticism, fearlessness and outside/slot versatility matches up with what the Packers are likely looking for. Bring him in!
Jaylon Wright - 9.75 RAS and great college production in the run and pass game, plus a willing blocker. In year one, he could fill the Patrick Taylor role while providing a lot more running ability and helping the Packers manage Aaron Jones' snaps.
Trey Bensen - 9.78 RAS - Reading a few scouting reports on Bensen, if I didn't know who it was, I would have thought it was an AJ DIllon scouting report. Bensen is not as heavy and has some better acceleration but the rest of the strengths/weaknesses noted are pretty similar.
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"Jersey Al" Bracco is the Editor-In-Chief, part owner and wearer of many hats for CheeseheadTV.com and PackersTalk.com. He is also a recovering Mason Crosby truther. Follow Al on twitter at @JerseyalGBP.
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Comments (113)
packerbackerjim
March 06, 2024 at 06:30 am
I’m going to guess Braden Fiske was the sleeper you had eyeballed. Though there is no chance Gute would even consider him, I think Ladd McConkey is going to have DCs pulling their hair out. It would not surprise me if Gute trades down with a QB desperate team eager to get Penix or Bo Nix. Can’t wait to get the CHTV Draft Guide.
murf7777
March 06, 2024 at 09:06 am
I could see him drafting Fiske in late round 2 or trade up in 3. I know his arm length is an issue, maybe that’s your thoughts.
Regarding round 1, if Murphy, Chop Robinson or Newton are available I’d draft them. In the new scheme, building the front of the defense is important. Also, if the DL can play 2 or 3 point stance all the better. If you look at how San Fran and Jets built there 4-3 D it started there. Well that’s my belief, build the trenches.
jannesbjornson
March 06, 2024 at 03:11 pm
Wyatt is the three-tech. They didn't use a One pick on him to have him sit the pine.
murf7777
March 06, 2024 at 06:28 pm
JJ….you need rotations on the DL so you keep them fresh. Also, you can’t expect DL to always come out of the gate fast.
Coldworld
March 07, 2024 at 10:06 am
I suppose it depends on who you think is in that rotation. We will have 2 DL out there 70-80 percent of the time and three the rest. I see a lot of depth there if my take on who can or should fit is accurate, not so sure about LB.
murf7777
March 08, 2024 at 08:54 am
It does, but I’m thinking of guys that can play in either stance effectively. Take a look at SF and Jets defense for example.
JerseyAl
March 06, 2024 at 11:38 am
No, I was strictly referring to offensive tackles.
stockholder
March 06, 2024 at 07:01 am
Gute says back 7 - Go with what we got @CB
I say Safety; first pick sets his draft.
After taking Savage rd 1. - Tyler Nubin S
AS long as your Analyst for the Ots.
How does King Sua @ 41 sound?
And duplicate the OT. @58
Kiran Amegadjie - OT Yale
Injuries covered!
Then back to Bishop. and a ILB.
JerseyAl
March 06, 2024 at 08:55 am
I really wanted to love Sua, and I do love his mobility for a zone scheme, but there's a lot of work needed on fundamentals - he's pretty undisciplined with technique in both run/pass. I'd still take him, but it depends where. Not sure about 41 - depends what other OL are still on the board.
Kiran is kind of in the same boat, but even more development needed. Sure wish we had more than a few games of tape to look at from 2023.
stockholder
March 06, 2024 at 09:39 am
I agree. - But there isn't any Ot taken,
that won't need development.
So instead of taken a lesser rated tackle.
Just take the both that will turn into
those building blocks. ( RT - LT.)
Because it sounds like the current Ots
are not set long term. (If it's a issue.)
Their arm length is the positive.
Their Athleticism will bring out competition.
And after Tom went down.
The reality was No pre- plan worked.
jannesbjornson
March 06, 2024 at 10:56 am
I was guessing Kiran as the sleeper. How about an OG @ #58 who could start and not need to be trained from an OT background. Beebe, Coleman, Mahogany all know the position.
JerseyAl
March 06, 2024 at 11:41 am
I personally think drafting a true guard is what they'll try to do and then address tackle later, but it all depends on how it falls.
jannesbjornson
March 06, 2024 at 12:45 pm
I like Morgan as the LT from watching his footwork and slide. Similar to Bhak. Bhak also had the "short arms" tag
going into the draft. He carried the chip on his shoulders pretty well.
stockholder
March 06, 2024 at 01:06 pm
He has 32 7/8 arms
He didn't lift and can't jump.
Anything else can be fixed.
But Bahk? - No -
jannesbjornson
March 06, 2024 at 03:30 pm
Morgan's testing is almost the same and better in some aspects with a better vertical and long jump. 10 yd splits about identical. We will see how much he can bench on his Pro Day. His arm length is 1"-0 shorter than Bhak's, but I would rather have a puncher with good feet, than a long reach guy who is cemented to one spot. Remember, this is a wide-zone scheme. Rhyan is the guy they want to wall off defenders on Inside zone. I expect three O-line drafted and some UDFAs to re-set the competition.
Leatherhead
March 06, 2024 at 07:49 pm
The Sainted Ron Wolf said he could get a RG anywhere, and that it was the least important position on the offensive line. I think you take a guy like Barton and play him where you need him, and he'd be a plus player wherever he lines up.
If the Packers wanted to shuffle some people around on the line for this season it would make a difference.
stockholder
March 07, 2024 at 07:30 am
Watch Bartons right foot when he blocks.
No - way is he a LT.
stockholder
March 06, 2024 at 12:21 pm
Beebe works. @58.
But if I really wants Mitchell @ CB.
That pick is gone.
jannesbjornson
March 06, 2024 at 12:51 pm
He is the best CB in the draft. He is in the #10--#15 range. He would take precedence over DeJean in the order.
The Bears tagged Jaylon Johnson and the Jets probably bag the LT to protect Rodgers. Denver should be hunting for a QB. A trade up with the Raiders @ #13 would be a scenario. Schneider dumped the bad Adams deal and could be sniffing Q. Mitchell, or DeJean as well as the Bengals.
stockholder
March 07, 2024 at 07:52 am
I guarantee if the packers don't take DeJean.
The Lions Will. And Nubin too.
Both are a safety away.
Razer
March 06, 2024 at 07:04 am
I hope that the combine gives our scouting people the last bits of comparative info that we need on each of these players. Beyond that I hope that the numbers don't deflect us from solid athletes and smart football players. Picking guys that can run fast but have trouble diagnosing plays has been one of our past sins. No greater example of that than our safety position. If we haven't identified the good ball players via their college tape and careers the draft will be riddled with fools gold.
murf7777
March 06, 2024 at 09:15 am
I agree with you Razer…..I think the 40 yd dash is important number, but grossly over rated. Agility in most positions is more important to me. Also, why would I care about that in a lineman, show me how quick he is and how fast he runs the 10 yd dash. I want explosive numbers, not overal speed.
Lastly, many try to compare past players to the draft players based on measurable. Many times that just doesn’t hold true. The reason is because it doesn’t take into consideration the person ability to react quickly, read a defense/offense pre-snap, their desire to play football for more than money, how much they study for a game, and their hustle and play to the whistle on every play vs taking a play off here or there.
jannesbjornson
March 06, 2024 at 11:02 am
Hand placement and punch.
TKWorldWide
March 06, 2024 at 07:19 am
Brevity is good!
No need to apolog
10ve 💚
March 06, 2024 at 07:57 am
I see what you did there! 😀
Cheezehead72
March 06, 2024 at 07:21 am
Good article and short is not always bad.
First of all to try to determine who the Packers are going to select in the draft is nearly impossible and you are setting yourself up for disappointment. I do not predict their picks anymore. I look at players and try to determine if they are a fit for the Packers.
I will also say what positions they need to concentrate on drafting but that is nearly impossible until after FA because you do not know who they might get in FA.
So even after the combine and FA it is nearly impossible to predict their picks because they could trade or stand pat and then pick a player you did not expect just because they saw something you did not.
But go ahead and try to figure it out. I like to look at the top 100 draft picks and look at those players ranked about where the Packers are selecting to see if there is a need there.
NickPerry
March 06, 2024 at 07:29 am
This is supposed to be the best Tackle class in YEARS. I was impressed with Walker, especially later in the season, but I'd still address the OL fairly early. I anxiously waiting to see what Gute does in Free Agency. With what they have at safety right now on the roster I think you HAVE to add at least one starting Safety in FA while still addressing it in the draft.
There's a lot of really good interior O-Linemen in this class as well. Does Gutey continue with the drafting of Tackles and then moving them inside? What about Jackson Powers-Johnson? Is he worth the 25th pick? I'm still going through a lot of information on these guys and am curious about a lot of players pro-days.
T7Steve
March 06, 2024 at 07:42 am
I think if they can get an NFL ready tackle (if they haven't decided on Mt Caleb) it would be great to be able to move Tom into guard or center due to his perfect size and start to build the best O-line in the NFL. That would leave Runyan as the inside line swing man (hope they get him signed) and Tom can move around in emergencies too. The line was ok for pass protection we just need to take some big steps in run blocking.
Coldworld
March 06, 2024 at 10:05 am
Remember too that they seem to love Tenuta. We’ve seen very little of him, but they essentially redshirted him last year when they could have easily just injury settled and they have continually referenced their enthusiasm. I’m really not sure what that’s based upon, but for an in season SFA pick up it’s hugely unusual.
Nothing in his background I can find sheds much light on this. He was originally a 6th rounder but that may have exceeded predictions. However, he’s clearly got something the Packers value. He’s athletic for a man his size certainly.
Cheezehead72
March 06, 2024 at 07:44 am
I would predict that Gute will pick up a FA Safety and ILB along with drafting some. He will use the draft to beef up the OL, CB, and RB.
murf7777
March 06, 2024 at 09:19 am
I think you can add DL within the first 3 rounds. Going to a 4-3 makes that position even more important. And, with Egnabare probably out next year with ACL makes it even more important. Those guys need to stay fresh.
Cheezehead72
March 06, 2024 at 09:40 am
I agree. I left it out by accident but also as it is not as needed as the others. I could have said CB. A team should always draft CBs and big guys
PeteK
March 06, 2024 at 02:50 pm
If Cox gets his head in order, he could be Egnabare's replacement. Another run stopping DT could also help unless Ford improves.
golfpacker1
March 07, 2024 at 08:43 am
There are only 5 picks in the first 3 rounds Murf. We can't keep adding lesser need groups to those 5 picks, which have to stay OL, S, CB, RB, and ILB. those are the immediate biggest holes we have. DT & Edge are the top 2 needs for 2025.
Unless we get sloppy lucky with a late round pick @ Edge, the better and more realistic way to add an Edge who can contribute would be signing a decent up and coming FA Edge. It's costs more, but we would get a for sure better player who will contribute immediately. One I like is A J Epenesa. The Bills are imploding their salary cap and are going to lose Epenesa who has had his 2 best seasons in a row. He is 25 and projected to get $5 to $6 million per year. He could play immediately and losing P. Smith in 2025 becomes easy.
Don't forget about Cox. He was highly rated and might be ready for a breakout year. Miles Cole is a late round Edge I like, but his strong combine showing might get him drafted sooner.
Starrbrite
March 06, 2024 at 01:42 pm
That’s how I feel Cheez.
golfpacker1
March 06, 2024 at 11:42 am
Nick, if the choice @ # 25 was between Powers-Johnson and Barton, I would take Powers-Johnson all day. They would be drafting Barton to be OG/OC. Why not take the better OG/OC. We don't need to have a Creed Humphrey debacle all over again.
Or as another poster stated, why not just take Beebe, Mahogany, or Zinter if we are trying to fill OG. They are the best at the position. I don't have as much faith in the U Conn guy.
Guam
March 06, 2024 at 07:33 am
Taylor Bartolini or Tanor Bortolini? If you are talking about the Wisconsin offensive lineman, yes he can play. Shifted to center his senior year when the starting center was hurt even though guard is his natural position. He is a team first type of person and was Wisconsin's best O-lineman despite the late shift to center which he had never played before. Quality person and player worth a long look by the Packers.
JerseyAl
March 06, 2024 at 08:05 am
whoops! fixed that, thanks.
Guam
March 06, 2024 at 08:08 am
Almost there Al. It's Bortolini, not Bartolini.
JerseyAl
March 06, 2024 at 08:56 am
See, I told you I knew nothing about this guy! lol. And as an Italian-American, he's spelling his name wrong! I'll fix it again...
dobber
March 06, 2024 at 09:10 am
I agree: he was out of his element playing C. I think he's a natural G who can play C (and RT in a pinch). He can run and pull, and that flexibility and athleticism might be attractive to the Packers. Power is not his game, which asks you whether he's an upgrade from Myers or Runyan. His play at C might depress his draft position some, but his athleticism might lead some to elevate him.
Honestly, I think he's a mid-round guy. I've been pretty vocal about how disappointed I've been with UW OL of late. I think they've underachieved for years (or, frankly, they haven't recruited well)...so I'm not so high on Bortolini. Best of a pretty meh bunch at UW last fall.
murf7777
March 06, 2024 at 09:32 am
Dobber, I agree, his best position is probably guard, but good versatility by being able to play center effectively.
Regarding UW’s recruiting, if you go by the star rating which is really all you have to understand what people who do it for a living provide us, the OL recruiting was great over much of the past 5 years at WI. Chryst for all the S*** he gets had back to back best recruiting years during that time at UW . That was mainly because of OL they recruited. All or mostly 4 and one 5 star.
IMO, the reason for the lack of development was due to turnover in the OL coaching position every year and more recently the new offense requires a different style of OL. Lastly, from my understanding, OL are the hardest to predict from HS to College due to not being able to know if they can carry additional weight and how it affects their athleticism and play. I think over the years, some of the best OL were 3 stars that could add the weight comfortably and by the time they were Juniors became a high level starter.
Guam
March 06, 2024 at 09:34 am
I agree with your overall assessment of the Wisconsin O-lines over the last five years although most of the deficit has been at the tackle positions. The Badgers haven't had a good tackle since Ryan Ramczyk. Wisconsin has continued to produce some pretty good interior offensive linemen recently (think Travis Frederick and Tyler Biadasz as two examples at center).
I think Bortolini took one for the team when he shifted to center last year and did that as a senior when he had to know it would hurt his draft status. He is not a mauler, but he held his own in pass pro and run blocking against pretty good DLs from Ohio State and LSU this season. I think he will be a good guard (where he played as a junior) in the pros.
jannesbjornson
March 06, 2024 at 01:03 pm
He had a hard time dealing with the bull rush from Hall during the OSU game and Jenkins from Big Blue. He has the mobility and balance to be a wide-zone guy at guard and probably Center if he gets better training at the position.
Guam
March 06, 2024 at 02:34 pm
Hard to have a tough time with Jenkins when the Badgers didn't play Michigan in either 2023 or 2022 when Bortolini started. The OSU tackles were tough in both years but Bortolini did okay as a center in 2023 and better as a guard in 2022.
jannesbjornson
March 06, 2024 at 03:40 pm
Thank you, I stand corrected, Guam. The brain relays should have sent the Image of Newton & company from Bielema's Illinois crew. More coffee. He is probably a better guard prospect.
LLCHESTY
March 06, 2024 at 04:15 pm
Nelson was really disappointing this year. I hope they don't just hand him back his starting spot on the left side. All those 4 and 5 star guys signed the last few years, it would be nice if one or two of them grabbed a starting spot and balled out before they all transfer.
T7Steve
March 06, 2024 at 07:34 am
According to Spoff, the Packers look at the vertical jump first and foremost when looking for O-line, because it shows their initial burst. Then and only then do they look at 10-yard splits, size measurables, and the other junk in no particular order.
Like Cheezehead72 above I don't even try to make guesses and look to the CHTV experts and comments to just learn about all these guys.
Thanks, Al. Look forward to your guide and don't lose any sleep over it.
dobber
March 06, 2024 at 09:14 am
Several years ago about this time of year at the AllGBP site there was a series of articles where one of the writers tried to correlate Combine numbers to All Pro performance over the various position groups. The strongest correlation for OL and DL was number of bench reps--meaning that high reps (or more than some chosen number...I think 28?) was a better indicator of being a future All Pro than other Combine tests.
Is that still true? IDK, but just as food for thought....
Cheezehead72
March 06, 2024 at 09:44 am
I would agree with that but the bench press can be helpful for most positions. I would say that the combine events other than the interviews and physicals have little correlation to future performance because there are so many variables determining performance. I would say these events just make GMs feel better about their pick.
T7Steve
March 06, 2024 at 10:17 am
The bench press is so obvious and important that I was really surprised by the Packers concentrating on the height of the jump, but then I realized that a person's leg strength is a pretty determining factor. Most of your lifting/pushing while you're standing comes from your legs, I suppose,
Coldworld
March 06, 2024 at 10:53 am
It’s not just leg strength, it’s a good indicator of quick twitch musculature. How fast can that body accelerate from stasis. Getting momentum is a huge advantage. Strength then kicks in. On the outside quick feet and agility get more important—think Tom and Bakh as great examples. Inside that’s not nearly as true. Bend, explosion and functional power, which is magnified by the first two anyway. The 10 yard split is important for pulling and ability to get out in front, but that’s a second stage consideration that won’t overcome the lack of explosive pier and leverage.
PeteK
March 06, 2024 at 03:06 pm
Absolutely, quick & agile feet are a must for Ts in order to stay in front, and beat the rip and swim moves from athletic outside rushers.
LLCHESTY
March 06, 2024 at 07:43 am
Tylan Grable could be your new late day 3 OT sleeper. Interesting player; played QB in high school, TE at Jacksonville State before ending up at T for UCF. Tested right in the Packers wheelhouse.
https://twitter.com/MathBomb/status/1764440507638255955?t=J4XGNXH3zvscDB...
JerseyAl
March 06, 2024 at 08:09 am
I haven't gotten to Grable tape yet, but he sure aced the combine.
Coldworld
March 06, 2024 at 11:12 am
I find him interesting as a project, but also for his ST potential as well as the ability to be a designated lineman who could do more than block. However, he’s fairly raw technically and he’s more a finesse guy. He’d be a great potential 5th OL, though I think he’s athletically an T, but with short arms, and potentially able to play some blocking TE/6th DL. I do like him as a late round utility pick.
On a different note, How about a Zach Frazier at C (with G capability). Love the attitude. A former wrestler. The guy is coming off an injury, but he is a true football player and really reinsert some bite to the interior mindset.
LLCHESTY
March 06, 2024 at 07:48 am
As far as sleeper I'd guess it was Fautanu but he was a borderline 1st round guy anyway. But most people thought he'd have to move inside before he measured with 34½" arms.
JerseyAl
March 06, 2024 at 08:10 am
He's no sleeper, although he may end up as our #1 guard prospect due to All-Pro potential inside.
LLCHESTY
March 06, 2024 at 08:01 am
Cole Bishop played more at FS than he did in the box in 2023 and played a lot of nickel in '22. Was a true Junior last year which Gutey will notice along with the high RAS. He's not a playmaker like the top guys are though with 3 interceptions in three years and 10 total return yards on them. Also had a 19% missed tackle rate. Savage had a 13.4% rate for comparison.
JerseyAl
March 06, 2024 at 08:14 am
Hmm, that differs from what I've read about him, but I haven't watched his tape myself. Some examples: "Bishop was a highly productive tackler and valuable three-year starter for Utah. He stays busy around the line of scrimmage and can dart into gaps but can be a little slow playing off of big blockers. Bishop has man coverage potential on tight ends and is a bona fide striker when crashing down from his zone perch. He balances pursuit flow with a last-line-of-defense mentality as a run defender from high safety but will lose discipline in his deep safety duties at times. Bishop is an enforcer with NFL size and toughness for consideration in both down safety and split safety alignments."
— Versatile defender who can play at all three levels of the defense and becomes more effective closer to the line of scrimmage.
— Instinctual player who displays good vision and route recognition to see threats.
— Strong tackler who takes good angles and tracks the ball very well. Does a great job of quickly closing ground and explodes through the ball-carrier.
LLCHESTY
March 06, 2024 at 04:25 pm
I think his testing will have some teams going back and looking at his deep snaps and trying to project his versatility. He certainty can be a LOS SS but can he do more?
A lot of these guys played 3 or 4 spots in college but couldn't do that in the NFL. I remember a couple years ago reading Jevon Holland started out as a FS for Oregon, then played mostly nickel his 2nd year starting before playing all over his 3rd year. Wondered if that was normal and college teams DBs closer to the LOS as their bodies develop and get stronger. Really wanted the Packers to draft him but he went much higher than I expected.
RCPackerFan
March 06, 2024 at 08:08 am
Taylor Bartolini - Can this boy play football? I have no idea but damn he medaled in the shorts Olympics!
He isn't a OC. He would be ideal at OG. His snaps were terrible at OC. But as an OL he is pretty good. I just don't want GB to draft him thinking he would be OC.
Max Melton -
Melton I think would be a pretty good fit for what I believe Hafley wants for his CB's. But then again right now I really don't know what he wants, just think I know.
Jaylon Wright - Right now Wright is my top RB I want. I want someone that can bring juice to the offense. We saw the difference it was going from Jones to Dillon and Taylor. There wasn't any juice. So we need to get a guy who can bring juice. Wright is one of them that has it.
Trey Bensen - Bensen is another RB I would be happy with.
To be honest. I just want 1-2 RB's added in the draft.
Guam
March 06, 2024 at 08:16 am
I agree that Bortolini is a much better guard than center. Can't really ding him too badly for his shotgun snaps (which weren't good) since he got thrust into the center spot unexpectedly and had never played there before. I would love to see him at RG for the Packers. He has the athleticism to get to second level blocks and the strength to wall up in pass pro. I am also a Wisconsin Badger homer so take my recommendations with a large grain of salt.......
RCPackerFan
March 06, 2024 at 10:12 am
Yeah he definitely got thrust into a position that the wasn't really prepared for. I am not sure if he really improved or not, but perhaps with a full season under his belt and some pro coaching he could improved enough to be a starting OC. But I view him as a OG only. If I'm GB i would take him to play OG.
I think he would be a very good RG for GB.
I am a homer as well. But that just means we saw more of these guys then others have so we can be more honest about them.
I like Braelyn Allen. I don't think he will be another AJ DIllon. He is more flexible when running. Not as stiff of a runner. I would be happy with him as well.
Guam
March 06, 2024 at 02:43 pm
Not as big an Allen fan as you are RC. Great kid and I wish him the very best, but I am not sure he will be a successful pro running back. His agility is not great and as a result he takes a lot of punishment which results in fumbles and injuries. I would rather the Packers look elsewhere for a RB.
LLCHESTY
March 06, 2024 at 04:28 pm
He looked really smooth running the bag drills , it was impressive for his size. He'd be more successful in a power running scheme though.
Coldworld
March 06, 2024 at 05:32 pm
I fear we’d be drafting as close as we can get to Dillon II. His strengths don’t fit our play any better than Dillon’s did. Neither fit our OL Philosophy or LaFleur’s use of RBs.
golfpacker1
March 06, 2024 at 07:46 pm
Gute has said multiple times recently that he wanted a bigger RB to go along with Jones, so I guess yeah, Allen could be a pick for GB.
Allen is not Dillon, and that's good and bad. Both run very hard and dish out punishment. Dillon was a very underrated pass catcher @ Pitt, because they never threw to him. He is actually a very good receiver, that's a strength of his. Allen also hasn't been used much catching the ball, but he looks natural doing it. He is a hands catcher as are most of the RBs in this class. Catching is a real plus for all of them.
Depending on his pro day, Allen will be picked in the 4th round, but could fall to the 5th. He would be a good value in the 4th round and that's where we would have to pick him, because after the 2nd round all of GBs picks are late in the rounds.
Estime is another who could fall that far after his disastrous 40 time at the combine, 4.71 is slow for a tailback.
croatpackfan
March 06, 2024 at 08:17 am
I really do not follow college footbal, so I have no my own opinion on any player that was accepted for draft.
Combine is, as far as I was concluded, just one time athletic measurement of many players that may shine or may have terrible results. For me, that tells nothing. For me, it is always better to make your own testing if you like player (through Packers scouts' reports) than to pay attention to actual achievement (or non-achievement) at combine - see Jaydon Reed!
Also it is hard to predict who are the players Packers are interested in, either in FA or in draft. What is, for me, high quality situation, as many other teams can not predict who will be the Packers potential pick. That gives you more flexibility in targeting players. Also, if it is hard to other team Front Offices to predict who will Packers draft, it is futile job to predict by us.
Anyhow, all your fan predictions are amusing to read, and to follow draft picks that will be selected by Packers. As far as I following that process, more than 95% of Packers fans are always surprised by selection Packers FO make. Than there is spitting on players Packers picked or on Packers Front Office until we see what those draft picks can offer to Packers football team. Many are so "pissed off" if Packers don't draft their draft crush, especially if that player was available for Packers to pick.
Really interesting time of the year!
I know who is the player you picked up as surprise O lineman Al, but I will not tell to the people to help you keep them guessing ;-)
GregC
March 06, 2024 at 08:40 am
It's hard to predict who the Packers will pick, but it's not totally hopeless. Lukas Van Ness was on the short list of players they might pick last year. Although I am not very knowledgeable about the draft, I knew who he was, and I was glad they picked him.
I think the significance of the combine and the RAS scores is in the extreme results that are unexpected. A lightly regarded player who scores very high has more potential than he was known to have, while a highly regarded player who scores very low probably has less potential. It's also possible that he just had a bad day of testing, but it's still a significant red flag.
croatpackfan
March 06, 2024 at 12:07 pm
It might be, but I like formulation that late Ted Thompson always said when commenting why Packers picked player: "He is good football player!"
MooPack
March 06, 2024 at 08:19 am
Al,
"sleeper"
I thought about OT Roger Rosengarten, Washington, who was a sleeper of mine. But, I'm going with OG Brandon Coleman, TCU, who really had a good combine. I hadn't really looked much at him yet. Tackle/Guard experience. Most likely stay inside.
JerseyAl
March 06, 2024 at 11:47 am
You know what they say about sticking with your first instinct...
MooPack
March 06, 2024 at 12:47 pm
Well, as long as the Packers don't second guess themselves.
However, I wouldn't mind hearing thoughts on Brandon Coleman, possibly in the draft guide. Looking at him a bit more. Military kid. Being a vet myself, partial to them. Many have a better level of discipline instilled. He didn't really start playing football until his senior year in high school so didn't get much interest. Was a JUCO recruit after one year. Had an injury that kept him out for a year and I believe he was dinged a bit last year. Rotated LT and LG, but allowed only 1 sack. Horn Frogs pass a lot, so that's great production. I watched a play, I think against Texas, where he took a rusher and tossed him to the ground with one hand. Wow. Huge hands, long arms, elite explosion. 600 lb squat. Made Feldman's athletic freak list. Team captain. I've warmed up to him.
jannesbjornson
March 06, 2024 at 01:10 pm
Rosengarten was schooled by the Texas & Michigan pass rush. Starts grabbing and picks up the Holding calls. We will see
Coldworld
March 06, 2024 at 08:36 am
Bortolini has very short arms and yet only benched 20 times apparently. Yes he has very quick feet, but that lack of power is really troubling in the NFL for an IOL. I fear he’s one of those who will find the upgrade in level truly challenging.
Benson has quick feet, Dillon does not. He does lack body flexibility, so no wiggle like Dillon, but he does have the speed to get to the edge. His burst isn’t great though. I think he’s a guy who can play in our system but his yards will come primarily outside the tackles unless we suddenly start to open the holes we didn’t for Dillon. I think he gets over drafted for lack of better. I don’t think he’s a Packer.
Stylistically, Guerendo may be closer to Dillon, but with much better long speed if perhaps a lack of initial burst like Benson. However, I hope we don’t focus primarily on replacing Dillon but on acquiring players that can fulfill the Jones role when Jones goes out. That’s a much better fit with our OL capabilities and philosophy. Get some depth there and we gain more I think. Perhaps pick up a hard yards runner late that may lack the threat of big plays but can do the dirty work.
All the candidates are going to require LaFleur to dedicate the summer to getting them up to speed in Protection. The best Jones parallel in terms of style is perhaps Brooks, but he is contact shy and appears averse to blocking and is coming off an ACL, potentially in season. Jones works in part not because of his athleticism but because he is both physical and has dedicated himself to perfecting his protection. I hope the scouts are more convinced of options than I.
Here’s my out of the pocket Draft hope; do away with the Hback and go all retro with the spot. Jakobi Buchanan from Army. 250-260 pounds. 27 rushing TD on 399 attempts. Only about 4 yards a carry, but tough yards. Nice situational change up for a few snaps and looks late in the draft or UDFA. Not used as a passing target, but do we need that? Deguara rarely was and Davis or Sims can be that. A nice short yardage boost for our OL whether carrying or lead blocking.
I don’t see anyone I see as a good candidate to come in and play a Hafley type FS in year one. I’d like to get excited about Dejean, but that injury looked nasty. The lack of detail makes it sounds like Stokes’ potentially. Would anyone back a high draft pick if it was? Maybe he proves that wrong at his pro day, but seeing is a precursor believing for me.
FS is the big challenge for me. I see a number of candidates for the box in the draft. Free agency perhaps solves that. If it does then I see this draft as one with a lot of players who have good attributes mixed with questions rather than stand out fits. This is one where scouting is critical in my mind as a result. Finding guys with a true footballer mentality and drive and also fit how we want to use them better than they might project overall.
This draft could parallel last years if we get it right: a lot of value and snaps from picks in the second half if you sift them well. It’s a smaller draft group after the post Covid bulge, but there are more unknowns and less track record types, some of whom could prove steals and surprise. I think our scouting strength could pay a big dividend again this year as a result.
Just to play the guess the tackle challenge: Amarius Mims. Ok, I admit I just like saying that name—he’s hardly under the radar. More seriously: Nathan Thomas.
Guam
March 06, 2024 at 09:19 am
I wouldn't short change Bortolini too much due to the 20 reps. The Wisconsin weight program has always been a little different than the Combine testing (more about flexibility, endurance and durability than just strength) so Wisconsin O-linemen have never tested particularly well at the strength part of the Combine. That has not prevented many Wisconsin O-linemen and particularly interior O-linemen from having good pro careers.
LLCHESTY
March 06, 2024 at 04:34 pm
If they tested linemen with a 315 lb bench like they should I think Badger O linemen would test better. They also focus more on full body lifting like power cleans than static lifting like the bench press.
Having said that Beaux Limmer is a beast and possessing the agility he showed with 39 reps on the bench and a 700 lb squat? If the miss out on Zach Frazier sign me up for Limmer.
Coldworld
March 06, 2024 at 05:36 pm
I mentioned Frazier earlier and he can play C well, as well as providing an attitudinal filip and edge we could benefit from. Limmer is definitely interesting. I’d take both and be happy.
dobber
March 06, 2024 at 09:26 am
I agree with Al in that I think their starting FS in 2024 isn't on the roster yet, and will probably be someone else's cut or FA. They've got to draft a guy to groom for that role, but finding a vet starter is pretty important.
The FA market has plenty of SS candidates who are younger and might be value signings. That's not true of FS...but they might be able to get by for a year with a Tashaun Gipson or maybe a Quandre Diggs.
jannesbjornson
March 06, 2024 at 11:20 am
Sign Kendall Fuller as a free agent. He can go slot CB to Free safety.
Leatherhead
March 06, 2024 at 12:05 pm
dobber....what do you think of trading pick #41 to AZ for Baker? We'd have to absorb his approximately $15M salary and rework his contract into a multi-year deal, but it would solidify that Safety spot a lot better than any rookie we could take at #41, IMO.
Also, it seems like nobody's thinking these guys like Owens or Ford might be brought back after they haven't gotten any lucrative FA offers.
Coldworld
March 06, 2024 at 01:35 pm
I think it’s quite possible one will be back, but not as a solution. If they are it’s to add depth or preferably experience while new depth develops.
dobber
March 06, 2024 at 01:39 pm
I'm terrible at gauging value of picks vs. players (I still think the Packers did just fine on the Douglas trade, esp. given they went 7-3 after), but I think the mindset of GMs is swinging around toward proven players > draft picks as compared to the rigid "draft and develop" idea. That fits with the increased activity in the league at the trade deadline.
IMO, the Budda move feels more like a "finishing" move. I'd rather draft a guy, sign a cheaper FA this year who can man the spot until my draftee is ready to go (avoid long-term big money deal), and use my healthier cap to fill around my young roster that's flush with rookie contract talent to make my run in 2025. I'm also quite the idealist.
jannesbjornson
March 06, 2024 at 01:53 pm
If the 2024, # Three Pick can match the 4 Ints with one returned for a pick six and 83.2 coverage grade from PFF and toss in a couple fumble recoveries, then we can talk. Ten picks in 32 games for the Pack while Jaire had ten picks over six years with the Green and Gold. One guy at 7M, the other pulling in 12M. I wouldn't give up a Playmaker so readily.
LLCHESTY
March 06, 2024 at 04:37 pm
Baker was horrible in coverage last year. No thanks.
golfpacker1
March 06, 2024 at 08:03 pm
Budda Baker is 28 years old going on 29. Too old for that kind of investment, and we need 3 reasonable upgrade FAs, not a single expensive one. Younger, cheaper, almost as good FA options available for less money..
Plus, why in the world would we want to waste #41. The first 5 picks in this draft should make this a really solid, young roster. How about we don't even think about trading up in this draft, and we don't trade valuable, premium picks for players in the back end of their career.
Micah Hyde does the same thing for $4 million per year, if we are looking for a bridge Safety.
LeotisHarris
March 06, 2024 at 08:38 am
No idea on the sleeper. This time of year I enjoy watching y'all get amped up about who and why. Looking forward, as always, to the draft guide. It's consistently a well-done reminder that these are kids we're cheering for, and I'm not getting any younger.
Not many of you know this, but like Kamren Kinchens, TK also has a 2.11 RAS. As they say, alliteration can only carry a guy so far.
Leatherhead
March 06, 2024 at 09:41 am
On the Benson/Dillon comparison.
Neither of them fumble. Benson is much faster with breakaway speed. He also has much better balance and won't be tripped up as easily as Dillon.
IMO, Benson is the player most like Jones: Smart, versatile, and with an ability to break long gains
Coldworld
March 06, 2024 at 11:22 am
I don’t see them as close comparatives in terms of style. Jones is vision, burst and elusiveness. Benson has quick feet but neither the extreme burst or elusiveness in the sense of wiggling through small creases. He relies on speed and straight line acceleration through either blocked gaps or getting outside. He is physical like Jones and not shy of contact, not just with the ball but also as one of the more willing protectors out there this year.
LLCHESTY
March 06, 2024 at 04:41 pm
From PFF:
"Benson is a little stiff in his lateral movements, lacking some of the wiggle of the other top backs in this class. When carrying the ball, the base of his footwork is narrow, which makes it easier for him to get tripped up. His high missed tackles figures are more about speed-to-power and erasing pursuit angles than one-cut elusiveness. He is an athlete first, so tends to miss open cutback lanes in favor of getting to the sideline as soon as possible. As a receiver, he lets passes come into the body rather than extending his hands."
Sounds more like Dillon than Jones to me.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
March 06, 2024 at 09:55 am
Still on the Kinchens bandwagon. RAS doesnt make plays. Kinchens does.
GregC
March 06, 2024 at 10:23 am
But can he make plays against NFL level talent, which is much higher than college level talent? It would be interesting to know if he was able to hold his own when and if he played against future NFL prospects. Players who are less athletically gifted often get washed out in the NFL because they can't raise their level of play enough to be effective.
jannesbjornson
March 06, 2024 at 01:37 pm
Playing against ACC, Big East and SEC opponents isn't too shabby. Kinchens had 9 solo tackles with a sack and some backfield stops against North Carolina. Broke up a couple of Maye's passes. Dontez Walker had a dominating performance for the Tarheels.
RCPackerFan
March 06, 2024 at 10:25 am
Something that RAS doesn't account for is game play instincts. Some players have great instincts and vision. They can see things before it happens.
So while RAS is a great thing as far as athleticism, some guys can overcome for the lack of some athletic trait by having great instincts.
Leatherhead
March 06, 2024 at 12:06 pm
Fast minds are faster than fast feet. Just ask Larry Bird.
murf7777
March 06, 2024 at 10:58 am
Yeah, I get your thoughts on kinchens, but when drafting IMO you will be more successful in the long run if you go by the odds. What I mean is that a high RAS player who also makes plays on the field has better odds of being successful than a lower RAS. That also goes with size and weight. Of course, there are many examples where a player like Kinchens proved everyone wrong, but I agree with the Packers philosophy which is basically you will be more right by drafting with higher RAS players.
T7Steve
March 06, 2024 at 11:22 am
Everything but the Kinchens sink.
Coldworld
March 06, 2024 at 11:28 am
I think this is where scouting comes in. Some tests are just not representative. Reed was a classic example last year. Is he really that slow? Film suggests at least a legitimate questioning of that. If our scouts think the testing misleading then we know that Gute listens.
murf7777
March 06, 2024 at 11:44 am
Actually, on Reeds testing he did best with his speed. His 10,20 and 40 were very good. His size and weight brought him down quite a bit. Also, his vertical wasn't good. That said, when watching his film you see a dynamic player. His RAS was 6.74, not good but not bad either.
Kichen on the other hand, bombed out with a terrible RAS. I'd be shocked if Gutey drafted him.
Coldworld
March 06, 2024 at 12:39 pm
Reed clocked 4.45. The Packers immediately on drafting him said they believed they had him reliably timed at 4.37. I think most now accept that his combine was not representative of his true speed. That’s why I cited him.
murf7777
March 06, 2024 at 03:12 pm
Gotcha.....I'll take a 4.45 all day long as well. I think 40 times are important, but over rated vs other measurements.
Coldworld
March 06, 2024 at 05:46 pm
I think had Reed been widely recognized for his actual speed he would not have been on the board. We took him well before most thought he’d go, if you recall the chatter, and that proved to be a scouting victory for the Packers.
I think your point about splits being a critical factor in judging receivers (and more generally) is valid. Wicks might even be a better poster boy for that.
golfpacker1
March 06, 2024 at 02:35 pm
His pro day will be way better. Maybe he was sick. He sure played faster on film.
JerseyAl
March 06, 2024 at 11:54 am
If Kinchens had a RAS of 5 or 6, you would have to look closely at what he got knocked down for and see how it applies. But when your RAS is 2.11, it means you were bad at everything, which a whole different story. In fact, the only category Kinchens even registered an "okay" rating was his weight.
Coldworld
March 06, 2024 at 12:36 pm
So he tested poorly or his film is misleading. One is. I’m
Not advocating for picking him, just pointing out that there does seem to be some gap between visible performance and testing. The discrepancy is just too large. As tested, even at a lower level, his production is extraordinary.
jannesbjornson
March 06, 2024 at 02:04 pm
See what the Pro Day delivers.
Alberta_Packer
March 06, 2024 at 02:26 pm
Kinchens still remains a football player with good instincts - although his RAS suggests that he may now have to play closer to the line and in a smaller area. It also precludes him from being an NFL cover 1 safety. So from a potential Round 1/2 Cover 1 Safety - to a Round 3 Cover 3 Safety?
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
March 06, 2024 at 08:49 pm
I get that and I dont disagree. But there are exceptions. Imo, Kinchens is a glaring exception. When you turn on the tape, hes flying all over the field. Poor athletes (in D1 football standards) dont pop like that. I wouldnt be surprised to learn in the coming weeks or months that he was recovering from an injury or something like that cuz his poor combine performance just doesnt match the film. Not even close. Hes kinda the opposite of Trey Benson. Benson is a good player but the tape doesnt show a guy with even close to 4.39 speed. Jonathan Taylor ran a 4.39 and hes substantially faster than Benson. Long story short, Im gonna weigh what I see with 3 years worth of film a lot more heavily than 1 day's worth of drills in spandex. Kinchens is the type of player the Packers have traditionally ignored and Im hoping Haffney has enough pull to get Gute to step outide of his RAS comfort zone. Especially if they plan to play a ton of single high safety looks, which Kinchens absolutely thrives in.
golfpacker1
March 06, 2024 at 02:27 pm
Kinchens could be a steal because he will fall at least to our #58. He would have been gone by #41 before the combine.
The tape doesn't lie, he is fast. I will bet he runs mid to high 4.5s at his pro day. The dudes' interceptions were not badly thrown passes like some of Taylor-Demersons were in the upper highlights. Kinchens covered some major ground to get to them.
I would not take him off the board until after his pro day.
Alberta_Packer
March 06, 2024 at 03:14 pm
Right - our urgent attention is currently not required. To paraphrase Gutekunst - no need to make a decision unless I have to.
PhantomII
March 06, 2024 at 09:19 pm
I was hearing some commentary on Jaylon Wright running against light boxes because the offense was spread out....Hell yea, If our 5 OL could go toe to toe with SF, we would have had 4-5 WR's and a RB or TE to catch a pass or run against a lighter box....But no. If we ever do fix the OL...Center/ IOL run blocking and Pass blocking without TE help every snap, our offense will be able to pass or run to the Super Bowl against anyone. I would draft Wright. He is an ideal future Jones replacement. I hear Gute wants a bigger back behind Jones...If you fix the OL right now Gute. We will not need hammer...the OL will be the hammer. GPG...Bigger... Bad Ass ...OL...The Road to the SB needs Graded....Make it happen Gute.
holmesmd
March 07, 2024 at 01:27 pm
Amarius Mims, GA!🙏🏽👍🏽🏋🏽♂️