Confessions of a Polluted Mindset - Draft Sneak Peek

The Weekly Packers Brain Drain from Jersey Al.

Eight days away. Our seven straight days of full-on NFL draft coverage will start next Wednesday morning when I will publish my official "One and Only" Packers Mock draft. I do put together a Packers mock draft for the CHTV Draft Guide, but that was basically done a month ago, and a lot more information has come down the pike since then. Not sure if that's a good or bad thing, but regardless, you'll get my mock next Wednesday. 

Do you have the draft guide yet? If you do, I'd love to hear your thoughts about it, suggestions, critiques, whatever. If you don't have one yet, I thought I would give you a few sneak peeks of what you can expect to find in the guide and highlight some of my favorite things about it.

Ken Lass reminisced about some NFL draft memories, including this one about being blindsided by the Packers' selection of Rich Campbell over Ronnie Lott. Ken was a sports anchor in Green Bay at the time and had a tight relationship with Packers' Director of Player Personnel Dick Corrick. From Ken:

I trusted Corrick. He had always been straight with me. He never used me as a decoy. The Packers, under Bart Starr, generally drafted as Corrick indicated to me they would. Some comments he would ask me to hold until after the draft, and I would comply. Trusting your source is a two-way street... The one position at which Corrick was adamant the Packers did not need help was quarterback. He made it more than clear that the team was happy with veteran Lynn Dickey...  Corrick had indicated to me that Green Bay would be all over Lott if he made it down to them. I’m telling my producer to cue up Ronnie Lott video as then commissioner Pete Rozelle approached the podium. I’m quickly retrieving all of the bio material on Lott that I had prepared in advance...   Whereupon Rozelle announces “With the sixth pick in the 1981 NFL Draft, the Green Bay Packers select....quarterback Rich Campbell.” - Packers historian and former beat writer Cliff Christl would later confirm that Corrick was telling me the truth, as he understood it. He would write that Corrick was certain he had convinced Starr to take Lott, who would go on to a Hall of Fame career with the Niners. But on the morning of the draft Starr shocked Corrick by telling him he had decided on Campbell.

CHTV alumnus Paul Bretl wrote a feature article about the Packers' defense in 2024 and the adjustments that Jeff Hafley made to compensate for the absence of Jaire Alexander and the lack of pass rush from the Packers front-four.:

...Schematically, the defense that we saw from the Packers in 2024 was not what was expected under Hafley. During Matt LaFleur's end-of-season press conference, he was quite candid in saying that what he envisioned was Green Bay rushing four and playing "three deep/four under" a lot more often than what the Packers ended up doing. The fact that what the defense ended up doing on Sundays was quite different than what LaFleur expected is a huge credit to Hafley and his ability to adjust to the players that he had on the roster and what's working versus what's not. To see more of the true version of what Hafley can dial up as a defensive coordinator, the Packers pass rush, and the front four specifically, has to greatly improve this season...

Yours truly undertook the task of compiling full measurement and athletic testing numbers for every one of Brian Gutekunst Draft picks into an easy to read table. The purpose was to determine thresholds that the Packers seemingly adhere to for honing in on their "type" of player at each position and then identifying players in this year's draft that meet those thresholds. I won't give those names away, (or the thresholds I determined), but here's what I found was the average "RAS" score for Packers players selected in each of the first three rounds. As you can see, I excluded slot receivers Jayden Reed and Amari Rodgers, as the RAS system doesn't separate out slot receivers so they end up being penalized with low RAS scores for being shorter, lighter and lower vertical jumpers than bigger receivers.

Long-time NFL Draft analyst Rob Reger loves to highlight non-Power 4 players that could turn out to be hidden gems. One such player Rob likes this year is WR Tory Horton from Colorado State. 

Blessed with 6’2” height and 4.41 speed, Tory Horton has been giving defensive backs fits for the last five years at both Nevada and Colorado State. Over his career, Horton has caught an astounding 265 balls for 3,615 yards and 27 touchdowns despite missing over half of his senior season due to a knee injury. Horton’s fit with the Packers would be as a natural deep threat, which became a need after Christian Watson hurt his knee. Although not as explosive as Watson, Horton is a long strider who can eat up chunks of yardage fast with his 4.41 speed in the 40. Once downfield, Horton has a knack for coming down with difficult-to-catch passes and creating big plays for the offense.

Every year, I like to challenge our draft guide readers with ten Packers draft-related trivia questions. Here's the first two:

Here's part of my write-up on UConn OT Chase Lundt (my #13 rated tackle): 

He flashes elite athletic ability, quickly beating defenders to the spot in outside zone. Lundt is an absolute terminator at the second level—he finds his target and doesn’t miss. His tape gives off a poor man’s Lane Johnson vibe and, as Johnson did, he would need to add weight and mass for the NFL. Lundt has improved as a pass protector each of the last few years. If that continues, he could be this year’s “sleeper.”  

So there's a little sneak peek for those of you still thinking about ordering the guide, which you can do so right here. Note, while it's being sold on our Patreon page, in no way are you obligated to join one of our paid memberships (unless you want to, of course). Just create your free Patreon account, order the guide and revel in it!

Go Pack Go!

 

PLEASE SUBSCRIBE TO OUR CHEESEHEAD NATION WEEKLY NEWSLETTER HERE.

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"Jersey Al" Bracco is the Editor-In-Chief, part owner and wearer of various hats for CheeseheadTV.com and PackersTalk.com. He's a lifetime Packers fan living in the land of the Giants (and Jets). Follow Al on twitter at @JerseyalGBP

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Comments (27)

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Cheezehead72's picture

April 16, 2025 at 06:58 am

I like Lundt as a hidden gem that the Packers need. He would be a great fit especially if he can learn the other side and become a swing tackle.

There are 4 DTs that have a first round grade that would fit the Packers defense very well. I see the Packers taking one of them. Of the four I like Grant the most. I would be ok with the Packers trading up to get Grant.

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Turophile's picture

April 17, 2025 at 05:44 pm

LT Chris Grant from William an Mary is my dark horse to totally outplay his draft spot.

He put up crazy stats at William and Mary college, but he has the tools to make it against top competition in the NFL. There might be a little getting up to speed against NFL level competition, but I am not betting against him stepping up to be a Zach Tom level of player.

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JerseyAl's picture

April 18, 2025 at 07:55 am

I liked Grant the moment I watched his tape, but he's no longer a "dark horse." I've seen so many people talking him up. So I had to find someone else and went with Lundt.

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NickPerry's picture

April 16, 2025 at 07:04 am

Two Thumbs up on the CHTV Draft Guide from me Al. I get it every year and really enjoy it. I especially like when the players are ranked they breakdown the player and then tell you his fit with the Packers and why...Great stuff!!

OMG...I remember the Rich Campbell pick. I was hoping for Lott and when the Campbell pick was made I was like WHY? Picks like Campbell are EXACTLY the reason the 70's and 80's Packer teams were so horrible. Hell, that 1983 offense with Lofton, JJ Jefferson, and Paul Coffman was pretty damn impressive. But just like many of the seasons with Aaron Rodgers, the Packers defense was pretty bad.

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T7Steve's picture

April 16, 2025 at 07:08 am

Al, I'm not smart enough to think I could improve your guide in any way. You guys did a lot of work and a wonderful job on it.

I'd have to cheat on the hall of fame question, so I'll just look forward to seeing your answer. I know I'm wrong because I don't think he was a #1 but on question #2 I'm going with B. John Brockington.

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TKWorldWide's picture

April 16, 2025 at 07:19 am

Love love love the Draft Guide! One practical feature I really appreciate is the way you can be on page 58 and then link instantly back to the table of contents. Scrolling would be a huge pain in the posterior!

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Coldworld's picture

April 16, 2025 at 08:13 am

Horton is certainly an option as a deep threat, but I think the salient point he illustrates is that there are a number of size/speed X options in this draft. The best at that narrow role are not in the first couple of rounds though and mostly don’t promise much more than that longer term.

Then again, Watson hasn’t done a lot more than that except as a blocker, so I’m fine with any one of them that can get deep, stretch and catch and has shown a willingness to block. If Gute wants a Watson replacement there are players there that can contribute now.

There is opportunity to really improve our DL, get this player, a good Z type prospect and a CB in the first half of the draft that can make us a better team this year and in future. This is a draft that seems tailor made for our needs IF Gute sees them clearly.

Replace Slaton, add youth and penetration inside on the DL and add speed/agility outside while adding a deep threat X and depth and the future potential at Z. I’ve been a Gute defender, but this draft appears to be one that is poised to show how acute he is.

The player types are there, credibly and in various permutations. No excuses. This could be a defining draft for Gute’s career with the Packers as much as the season will be for LaFleur to show he can really mold a truly good O from the pieces.

This draft marks the start of a season of home truths in my view. This draft should make us better now and in future and there really aren’t a lot of excuses left for the O if it (and other recruitment) is half way decent. The needs are fairly clear and the opportunities to solve them seem abundant.

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T7Steve's picture

April 16, 2025 at 08:21 am

"This draft marks the start of a season of home truths in my view."

So let it be written.......

Superbowl here we come!

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jaxpackfan's picture

April 16, 2025 at 09:16 am

Coldworld, I think you make a ton of sense with. your post. Very nicely expressed! As I watch the draft, I hope it unfolds for Gute just as you have described.

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Alberta_Packer's picture

April 16, 2025 at 12:52 pm

I have done several mock simulations when Horton is the first WR that the Packers select (3rd round) - due mainly to how the Draft has unfolded - together with Gutekunst's strategic drafting of the BPA. It appears that the popular choice for WRs is a Higgins-Thornton pairing - or some other Higgins - Day 3 combination. However, the final WR result for the Packers could be something very different to popular choice. It could be a Tet McMillan + Isaac Teslaa or Jalen Royals + Andrew Armstrong or Tory Horton + Kaden Prather or numerous other "permutations." So I agree - there is abundance in this Draft.

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LLCHESTY's picture

April 16, 2025 at 01:11 pm

Royals+Chimere Dike would be an interesting combo given they're both fast and shifty.

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Coldworld's picture

April 16, 2025 at 04:15 pm

Neither is a classic X build though. Both are long term Z prospects.

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BradHTX's picture

April 16, 2025 at 01:14 pm

Funny you should mention it; I just did exactly that in a mock yesterday. I traded back with KC to the end of the 1st and then again with SF into the 2nd so I had two 2nds and two 3rds. I ended up with:

43 DT Derrick Harmon (don’t believe for a second he’ll last that long, but you take who’s available)
53 Edge JT Tuimoloau
75 WR Tory Horton
87 OT Charles Grant
113 WR Donte Thornton
124 CB Nohl Williams

Didn’t do rounds 6 or 7. This outcome is highly unlikely, but if this were the Packers haul I’d be ecstatic.

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Alberta_Packer's picture

April 16, 2025 at 02:44 pm

Like your mock draft - most of mine have included trade-downs - as I'm convinced that Gutekunst will acquire - one way or another - at least an additional 2 picks. This way all positions can be covered - if Gutekunst chooses.

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GregC's picture

April 16, 2025 at 08:31 am

The draft guide is excellent, and I appreciate the time and thought that went into it. The one big head scratcher for me was Nic Scourton at #1 in the rankings of edge players, with Shemar Stewart at #2 and Abdul Carter at #3. I don't mind rogue opinions, but this one didn't make any sense, especially because the writer said the Packers don't have a chance at Carter because he will be taken long before the Packers pick. Maybe he was thinking of best fit for the Packers, but that does not seem to be how the other positions were ranked.

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HarryHodag's picture

April 16, 2025 at 08:36 am

A radio sports director friend of mine was in the locker room broadcasting live the day Bart Starr took Rich Campbell. To say the press corps was stunned is an understatement. My friend had talked to a couple of scouts who had deep misgivings about Campbell. They both said his arm was inadequate at the NFL level.
Bart wanted him and got him.

This is why the decisions made on draft day, especially first round picks, have a long term impact on any team. My theory is lessen the potential blow by trading back and getting more above average players rather than trying to(using a baseball metaphor) hit a home run with a first round superstar.

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LLCHESTY's picture

April 16, 2025 at 01:13 pm

I don't know if McGinn was around back then but a Milwaukee Journal writer said every NFL person he talked to was shocked as well, and that most thought he was a 3rd round pick.

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LeotisHarris's picture

April 16, 2025 at 08:37 am

Kudos to all for the draft guide. It's visually appealing, user friendly, and well written. I thought Ken's piece really set the tone with perspective of what it was like in the olden days. A nice pre-RAS glimpse into how one man's football player was another man's bust, and the zany antics behind the scenes at 1265.

It's fun to see what the guide has to say about players I read about on other sites. I'll refer to it throughout the season, too. Well done!

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PeteK's picture

April 16, 2025 at 09:15 am

Greatly, enjoyed the personal articles this year. No improvement needed as the guide covers every facet of the draft. I still think we need a first round CB, unless a highly rated DT or WR falls to us.

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Alberta_Packer's picture

April 16, 2025 at 11:42 am

I enjoy the CHTV Draft Guide - mainly for its work in identifying Packers types. But also for its opinion pieces - which can be stimulative. Case in point - Chase Lundt - who has been referred to as a "sleeper." Perhaps so. However, I see a too tall, under-powered, short-armed OT - with athletic limitations - who will be 25 yrs. old by training camp. Still he may be an interesting developmental project - like Esa Pole - who is my "sleeper."

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LLCHESTY's picture

April 16, 2025 at 01:16 pm

One thing is for sure about Lundt, he's not in the same building as Lane Johnson athletically. IIRC Johnson had one of the highest RAS scores ever for an OT. He also has Orangutan arms. From the little I watched of Lundt I didn't see that at all. I don't pay much attention to O linemen over 6'-6" that are supposed to be day 1 or 2 picks. They haven't taken one since the John Michaels fiasco.

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Alberta_Packer's picture

April 16, 2025 at 02:00 pm

I think that after the Josh Nijman and Caleb Jones experiences - the Packers height threshold for OTs could also be 6'6". Like you I have practically eliminated any OT in this Draft over that height. Plus weight over 320 lbs.

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stockholder's picture

April 16, 2025 at 12:00 pm

Horton is very underrated.
Had a knee injury. Very fast.
Good choice.

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JerseyAl's picture

April 16, 2025 at 01:05 pm

Turns out Horton is In Green Bay today for a visit.

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LLCHESTY's picture

April 16, 2025 at 01:05 pm

Unlike Ken Lass I was all cued up to welcome Hugh Green as the newest Packer. I was such a High Green fan I used paper route money to buy a Pitt windbreaker. I would have adapted quickly to Lott though, and either of them could have been enough to push the Packers over that 8-8 hump. Between this one and the Joe Montana incident it's not shocking the club was a joke back then.

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LeotisHarris's picture

April 16, 2025 at 01:37 pm

No easy task to procure a Pitt windbreaker back in the dark ages either. You were a devoted fan!

I've always had you pegged for a Charles Johnson hater.

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Idaho Cheese's picture

April 16, 2025 at 06:15 pm

Appreciate the content and the follow-up to the Guide and eagerly await next week's Mock Draft. Thank you!

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