Who's Next for an Extension?

Who's going to be the next priority for a contract extension?

From an outside perspective, extending Kenny Clark was a clear, obvious top priority for the Packers all offseason. 

Clearly, the Packers agreed.

Clark is now the highest paid nose tackle in NFL history, but the term "nose tackle" really doesn't fully describe everything Clark does for the Packers' defense. For a big man playing tackle in a 3-4, he has an incredible pressure rate, and he affects nearly every play on the line of scrimmage. He has somehow managed to get even better every year in the NFL, is finally starting to get the recognition he deserves as one of the league's premier defenders, and is still only just 24 (!) years old.

So now that Clark is taken care of, the question becomes... who's next?

The Packers are going to have some very difficult decisions on their hands leading up to the 2021 offseason. There are several key players not under contract, most notably elite left tackle David Bakhtiari, breakout running back Aaron Jones, reliable starting center Corey Linsley and mercurial starting corner Kevin King.

Let's take a look at each of these four and the factors the Packers will have to consider.

David Bakhtiari, LT

Age: 29
2020 Cap Number: $14.7 million

Bakhtiari is in the prime of his career, and has a very strong argument for being the finest left tackle in the game. The old adage always goes that beyond the quarterback, the most valuable players on the field are the guy who gets the quarterback (pass rusher) and the guy who protects the quarterback (left tackle). A new contract for Bakhtiari won't come cheap; right now he's got the fourth-largest cap hit in the NFL for left tackles in the 2020 season according to Over the Cap, and given he's still on the right side of 30, he's going to command at least as much money moving forward. 

Bakhtiari has been extremely reliable and generally durable throughout his tenure, plays one of the two or three most valuable positions in the sport and has been a consummate professional and leader during his tenue with the Packers, not to mention a fan favorite. He will be a top contender for an extension.

Aaron Jones, RB

Age: 26
2020 Cap Number: $2.1 million

Jones' salary more than triples from 2019 to 2020, but he still comes in at tremendous value under his rookie contract as a later round selection. But an extension for a player of Jones's explosiveness and versatility is not going to come cheap.

There are several factors in Jones's favor. One is that the offense is clearly beginning to rely more on him than it did under Mike McCarthy. Matt LaFleur likes to get the most out of his running backs, running the ball a higher percentage of the time and using the backs more frequently as receivers, all over the field. Jones is capable of lining up just about anywhere, has dramatically improved his pass blocking and is the most reliable, explosive runner of the football the Packers have by a large margin. He's young enough and has been used sparingly enough in his first three seasons that age and wear and tear shouldn't be as big of factors for him as they would be for other running backs seeking new contracts after their year four or five season.

The primary factor working against Jones is the market. Frankly, if the last five years have taught us anything it's that the NFL is no longer a league where you can pay a running back a hefty contract and expect it to work out in your favor. Contracts for big-name players like Todd Gurley, David Johnson and Le'Veon Bell have all been questionable at best given their resulting yields. 

While the Packers would undoubtedly like to keep Jones, his future may depend in large part on how other players like AJ Dillon or Dexter Williams perform this year, and what the Packers expect him to command on the open market. Because really, paying large RB contracts in today's NFL is a fool's errand.

Corey Linsley, C

Age: 29
2020 Cap Number: $10.5 million

Linsley has been a wonderful surprise throughout his Packers tenure, playing consistently strong football since his rookie season with very little of the national recognition he deserves for it. However, the writing would appear to be on the wall for Linsley entering the 2020 season.

While Linsley still almost certainly has another contract's worth of strong football in him so long as he stays healthy, what's working against him are a) who's ahead of him on the list of priorities (see: Bakhtiari and Jones) and b) who's waiting behidn him on the depth chart.

The Packers extended the versatile Lucas Patrick during the season last year, and at the time it sure felt like a sign that Linsley may not be back in Green Bay after 2020. Patrick has filled in admirably at interior line positions and may well be the team's long-term plan at center should they pass up on extending Linsley. 

While I would love to see Linsley back in Green Bay, I think the situation simply isn't in his favor. He's likely playing somewhere else in 2021. 

Kevin King, CB

Age: 25
2020 Cap Number: $2.2 million

King's future may be the hardest to predict of this foursome, as what happens to him will likely depend largely on his level of play in 2020.

During King's first two years, he had a difficult time just staying on the field. During the 2019 season, his play was inconsistent; when he was on, he was fantastic. When he was off... it wasn't pretty. There was a lot of promise there, and one had to remember that while King had two years under his belt entering last year, he had barely a season's worth of game time, and was still relatively fresh to the league as a result.

This year, it's put up or shut up time for King. If he can play more consistently to the caliber we saw him flash in 2019, he's going to make it hard for the Packers to get rid of him. Jaire Alexander is in it for the long haul for the Packers, and having two strong players on the outside locking down two top receivers each game... that's something NFL teams would pay a premium for. King has shown he has the talent to be a long-term player in the NFL, but he has yet to show he has the consistency. 

Of course, another factor is would-be nickel corner Chandon Sullivan. The team showed a lot of faith in this former undrafted free agent when they opted not to bring back Tramon Williams this offseason. Sullivan played outstanding football in 2019, and will be relied upon as a larger contributor in 2020. If he continues his trajectory, there's a chance the team might see him as the long-term starter opposite Alexander intsead of King.

If I had to make a prediction based on how the team wlil handle this, I'd say the Packers will almost certainly wait out the entire decision before making a decision on King in February or March. They're going to see what they have in him and how he's progressed. 

 

PLEASE SUBSCRIBE TO OUR CHEESEHEAD NATION WEEKLY NEWSLETTER HERE.

__________________________

Tim Backes is a lifelong Packer fan and a contributor to CheeseheadTV. Follow him on Twitter @timbackes for his Packer takes, random musings and Untappd beer check-ins.

__________________________

2 points
 

Comments (28)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
TheVOR's picture

August 17, 2020 at 03:52 pm

I think they're lucky if they can get David Bakhtiari signed at this point! I was shocked it was Clark first. I think both positions are critical to this team. The bummer is saying goodbye to some really decent football players. I don't see Jones, King or Linsley resigned. It's the challenge of having the cap with a HOF QB talent being paid..

4 points
6
2
murf7777's picture

August 17, 2020 at 03:52 pm

No easy decisions. I’m thinking Bak, build the trenches with a great QB and the rest will be of less importance. Unfortunately, we can’t sign them all.

5 points
6
1
mnbadger's picture

August 17, 2020 at 04:18 pm

Trade Linsley now, even though he's a great Packer. Tough, dependable, talented and quiet. Maybe a team with excess LBs needs a center?
Spend the money on Bakh. Fill the hole with Lucas P.
GPG

-1 points
1
2
TimBackes's picture

August 17, 2020 at 04:27 pm

Given they're in "win now" mode I think they're better off keeping Linsley and getting the comp pick at the end of the season. Patrick may be ready to fill in, but you know what you've got in Linsley already and the difference between the comp pick and trade compensation for Linsley is probably smaller at this point than the difference between Linsley and Patrick.

3 points
4
1
greengold's picture

August 17, 2020 at 04:46 pm

I bet that is the plan, Tim. Linsley is solid as a rock at C. Rodgers will love having him around for another year.

-1 points
0
1
Bure9620's picture

August 18, 2020 at 08:13 pm

Could be Hanson taking over at center next year......there is a chance the offensive line could look very different next year....I think the only sure thing is Elgton Jenkins at guard

0 points
0
0
greengold's picture

August 17, 2020 at 04:48 pm

Yeah, we can't afford a listing that includes Bakhtiari, King, Jones and Linsley - all of whom will command $13M+++. That is a sad reality. Also factoring in are Sullivan and Lazard, UFA and ERFAs who, nonetheless, will command some pretty large figures as well. I mean, it is one cap number GB has to stay under regardless of FA/UFA/ERFA, with a ton of great talent to decide who will be the best fits.

I'd think Bakhtiari and King will prove indispensable and will become the top priorities. 2nd contracts for RBs are sadly becoming cost prohibitive. The team has been bolstering both RB and C the last couple of years, spelling the last years with Jones and Linsley from the outside looking in. Guess the same could be said of CB to some extent which shows Gutekunst is covering as many bases as possible with the best depth he can find.

Really wonder how the Franchise Tag will affect these future signings? Makes sense it would be Bakhtiari, but, what if they sign him first and use that elsewhere?

Really tough calls, and I wish we could keep all of them.

4 points
5
1
dobber's picture

August 17, 2020 at 07:25 pm

"I'd think Bakhtiari and King will prove indispensable and will become the top priorities"

I have a hunch you're right. Follow the draft to see where the Packers went in 2020...3 interior OL, RB, H-back, ILB, QB. No DL...they resign Clark. No LT, no CB...I think they invest in those high-impact positions next. I don't think they let Bakhtiari walk with no suitable replacement in sight.

3 points
4
1
MarkinMadison's picture

August 17, 2020 at 08:54 pm

Good points. I think Bakh is a given. With King I think it is more about getting the price right than anything else. His height/speed combo is a different dimension. I'd be a little worried if the Packers had two starting QBs both under 6'0".

1 points
1
0
mrtundra's picture

August 18, 2020 at 09:03 am

I'd say Bahktiari and King are GB's top two extensions. Bahktiari is ARod's Guardian Angel on the left side of the line. King is coming into his own after a solid season, last year. I think he and Jaire provide two of the best CBs, in the league. This past draft had GB go after three O linemen. I think that sealed Linsley's fate, in GB. I do not see any of those new draftees taking over for Bahktiari, though. A Jones extension could come a little later.

0 points
1
1
splitpea1's picture

August 17, 2020 at 05:17 pm

Although it makes me cringe to think of the possibility of losing A. Jones, having the stability at LT for a few more years would make our QBs breathe easier. On the other hand, the Packers won their third Super Bowl without a stud at this position. All I know is that if the Packers are thinking of not resigning Jones, they better hope some of their other skill players (including Ervin) turn into reliable weapons to make up for his substantial production yardage-wise and scoring.

3 points
3
0
Stroh's picture

August 17, 2020 at 11:08 pm

They won the 4th SB without a viable RB! LT are and always will be much more important than RB, at least w/ the rule of today. Jones could come back if he accepts a contract similar to Eckler. (4 yrs 24M overall) If he wants more than that the Packers will walk away from the negotiations. They will not pay a RB anything close to 9 or 10 M.

Jones injury history is another factor against him in another possible contract.

-1 points
0
1
Lphill's picture

August 17, 2020 at 05:40 pm

Runyon is the new left tackle after Bak , he made 30 starts at left tackle.

-4 points
2
6
dobber's picture

August 17, 2020 at 07:33 pm

"he made 30 starts at left tackle."

No he didn't.
As per Packers.com:
"Appeared in 32 career games with 25 starts for the Wolverines, opening 24 contests at left tackle and one at right tackle."

As per U of M's website:
".... 26 career starts (25 at left tackle, one at right tackle), and also contributing on special teams"

I'd love it if he can play LT at a high level in the NFL. That would make him a draft gem. But even the Packers list him at G and have said they might try him at T on the right side.

-1 points
0
1
Lphill's picture

August 17, 2020 at 07:45 pm

The difference from 26 and 30 is 4 , he is the future left tackle I believe his dad said the same thing about playing left tackle.

-1 points
1
2
MarkinMadison's picture

August 17, 2020 at 09:12 pm

I can't say Runyan can't play LT in the NFL. I can only say that no one seems to expect it. Not even the player himself.

0 points
1
1
Stroh's picture

August 17, 2020 at 11:15 pm

Runyan MIGHT be able to play RT in the NFL, but if anyone thought he had the ability to play LT in the NFL he would have been a MUCH higher draft pick. He's most likely going to be an OG. The Packers were extremely lucky that Bahktiari was found at LT in the 4th rd. There is no way to reasonably think a 6th rd picks can take over the LT job and succeed. The vast majority of LT are drafted in rds 1 or 2, very few even make it past the 2nd, much less into the 6th rd.

His dad played in an era where running the ball was still the dominant plan of attack on offense. Different era, different offensive strategies. Runyan has almost no chance of becoming an NFL LT!

-1 points
0
1
greengold's picture

August 17, 2020 at 06:38 pm

This seems to be a super uncomfortable topic for many Packer fans. That’s understandable, as we’re talking about a good number of great players that we’ve also come to know as great people. What a team. We are very fortunate.

1 points
2
1
Bearmeat's picture

August 17, 2020 at 06:47 pm

Dillon and a contracting cap is why I think Jones will be gone next year. Jones is fantastic, but I'd personally see if I can get Bakh for 3-4 more years first. I do think King is a goner unless he plays at a 1st team all-pro level.

1 points
1
0
Stroh's picture

August 17, 2020 at 11:21 pm

If King plays like a 1st team All Pro there is almost no way the Packers could afford to sign him. Bahktiari is going to be close to 20M per, and an All Pro King would command very close to 20M per as well. The most likely formula for King to get resigned is that he plays similar level as last year and stays healthy. That might mean the Packers could get in done in the 10-12M per yr range. If he's injured again he's gone for sure. But even the 10-12 M range might be more than the Packers can afford.

Given the drafting of 3 Interior OL this year, its pretty much a given Linsley will be leaving after the season.

0 points
1
1
Oppy's picture

August 17, 2020 at 07:19 pm

King balled out in 2019.

Having two very good corners is a major boon in today's NFL.

A top tier LT is also a major priority.

Don't know what the 2021 cap room is going to look like. It's not ideal to expose your players to FA if you can avoid it, but there's nothing saying the Packers won't be able to get a deal done with a player they want to keep after the contract expires and hits FA in the 2021 season.

I believe you have to keep Bakh, but I also believe that in a period where transition to a young QB is likely, having two very good corners would be helpful for overall team success, especially with an offense that takes pressure off the QB. I like Linsely and Jones, but they are back-seat players out of the four we're talking about. No offense to either. Jones is fantastic but we have options and paying RBs top dollar is risky business. Linsley is a fine player but King is a bigger talent.

Tough business.

4 points
6
2
flackcatcher's picture

August 17, 2020 at 07:28 pm

Gute had made it clear what the Packer priorities were at his end of the season presser. Bulgua if possible, Clarke and Bahk both depending on the Cap number and King if possible. For the rest it's a new world with Cap reductions coming. As GM, he has been upfront with the fans from the moment he was hired. We are not use to a football guy tell us what he is going to do.

0 points
1
1
Since'61's picture

August 17, 2020 at 08:41 pm

Since the Packers have signed Clark, Bak and King are the next 2 priority positions on the team. LT and CB are higher priority positions than RB or C on any NFL roster.

If I were the Packers I would have focused on Bak before Clark but they went with Clark first and I’m fine with that. Extending Clark is a good move.

Now I would focus on Bak because the Packers have questions on the right side of the OL which might not be resolved by the end of this season. If they let Bak go they could be exposed at both LT and RT. Therefore, if I’m Gute I try to keep Bak and keep my QB protected.

If King has another strong season he is worth re-signing as well. Alexander and King could become the Packers best CB tandem since Adderly and Jeter.

We’ll need to let Linsley and Jones go but we’re stronger with Bak and King than we are with Linsley and Jones. We can draft another RB and Patrick or Jenkins can take over at Center.

It’s a difficult business but it is almost impossible to keep a team together with the NFL salary cap. Thanks, Since ‘61

0 points
4
4
stockholder's picture

August 17, 2020 at 09:00 pm

I see age as the deciding factor. #2. The projection of where the packers might pick, the other. #3 Arron Rodgers staying in GB. Conclusion: King !

-1 points
2
3
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

August 18, 2020 at 03:41 am

If one is talking just about talent, production and positional value, Bakh wins hands down. The tricky part is that I think he won't take less than Larry Tunsil's $22M AAV (and that number is legitimate: $$40M of the $66M is fully guaranteed, with $10M of his 2022 salary guaranteeing in March of 2021, so a rolling guarantee). There certainly isn't any reason for Bakh to take less: he is just completing a four-year deal that significantly underpaid him already, not to mention his rookie deal that always underpays good players.

One has to realize that GB could fit the AAVs of Linsley, King and Aaron Jones in Bakh's $22M+ AAV - well, perhaps not quite unless King or Jones has an injury. In any event, I could see Linsley at $10M, Jones at $8M to $10M, and King as a wild card at $4M to a lot if he sparkles.

2 points
3
1
Guam's picture

August 18, 2020 at 07:45 am

Can not understand how this factual discussion of the cap gets a down vote. I would love to see Bahk get resigned but as TGR points out he will be very expensive. Do you sign an aging third contract player to a very large contract or two younger up and coming players like Jones and King for about the same total money? I understand the love for Bahk, but in the salary cap era financial realities have to be part the discussion.

0 points
1
1
PatrickGB's picture

August 18, 2020 at 09:08 am

Agree, I think that the team goes “three for one”. Matt’s offense is getting away from MMs offense where Rodgers holds on to the ball for ten seconds.

-1 points
0
1
Bure9620's picture

August 18, 2020 at 08:19 pm

good stuff TGR....with the cost of Bakh I thought we would let him walk but it makes me think there is a decent chance the Packers franchise tag him.
This would likely not be above his actual market value, which is a bit unusual for the tag.

0 points
0
0