Hard to predict to trade down, up or stand pat until the reality of the draft is playing out.

Gute (along with the efforts of the scouting dept) will land us a biggon!

Sir Gute, how big of a G-fish did you land in the G-boat?

He doesn't need to say a thing. His smile and outstretched arms (see above pic) say it all.

Get the net Boyz, FISH ON! Nicely done...they will be talking about this in the Gutenheim Museum forever...

What you do in the draft ECHOES AN ETERNITY. :)

Just did a draft on PFF and I did trade down...With the Giants. I traded 15 for 25 and the Giants (cough) 3rd round pick, PLUS next years 1st. I still got Dalton Kincaid and with the extra 3rd I got from the Giants I took Jordan Battle. Obviously this means absolutely nothing, but I agree with Ken, it's a great draft to trade back.

If Gute could pull a similar deal like he did with the Saints in 2018 when he traded way back in the round and then back up but still ended up with the extra 1st in 2019 I would be in favor. Depending how far back they trade back, maybe they trade back up or stay put but with all the needs this team has, AND a first year starting QB, IMO the Packers NEED to draft weapons.

YES, I know they need an edge player, OT, Safeties as in MULTIPLE. They also need TE's (multiple) and at least two WR's. Whatever Gute does it's my hope he gets a TE and a WR in the first and with one of the 2nd's (assuming Rodgers is traded). The Packers CAN'T go into the 2023 season and expect Love to win with JUST Watson, Doubs, and Toure.

If somehow Gute could come out of this with say Michael Meyer and Hyatt for example, or Kincaid and Rice with maybe a Sam LaPorta mixed in in the first example I'd be a HAPPY, happy, Packers fan. IF, the Packers don't get more weapons it's not going to matter if the Defense suddenly pulls their head out of their butts.

They HAVE to set up Love to succeed or at least have a chance. I mean the absolute worst thing they could do to this kid is ignore the skill positions...AGAIN!

This article shows that we really don't know much when it comes to drafting, or at least I do not.

If a player is hyped enough, all of the sudden, he is a fantastic player.

Should be an interesting draft.

I hope Guty trades down as well based on all that I have read but again, I really have no idea why.

You have to assume that if the consensus is the first round is weak, and the second and third are full of value opportunities, then everyone would be trying to trade out of the first to stockpile picks.

I guess it's why trying to figure out the strategy within the strategy is what keeps fans interested.

It's the job of the GM and his staff to manage the draft. They will be talking about all the wonderful picks they made. The media often seems to think that its job is to promote drama! So they will be debating every minute detail and second guessing everything the front office says. The truth is, we just won't know the reality until these guys are on the field for a few years. So...everybody relax!

Most of the guys you've shown. I wouldn't draft.
Why draft a bust? I'm against a trade down.
Either they give up a major Return.
Or stay away from their garbage.
I remember the Ricky Williams Trade.
Wait for the Gm thats nuts.
The NFL draft is a media sell job now.
Give me Guarantees!
The strengths of this draft, fit the Packers.
We don't Need a Thing that requires a wait.
The later picks are for that!
And when you figure in the coaching for each.
Take the sure thing @15.
My sure things are Robinson (if he Falls)
The Best OL if he falls.
The edge - Nolan Smith.
A CB who can play anywhere.
These are the fits. - Speed!
You can't teach it.

Packer MGT will probably screw up the AR12 trade with the Jets. I would rather he just retire then accept very little from the Jets in compensation. We were already embarrassed when we traded Farve to the jets for a 3rd round pick. What a joke that was. Packer MGT needs to be released.

Trade down in the 1st this year depending on who falls. Do not trade down in any other round, especially the 2nd and 3rd.

I am not sure if I agree with the premise that you can get the same quality of player in rounds 2) and 3) that you get in mid round one. It all depends on what is there. lets assume we do not trade down and we do not have any picks from the Jets. The worst case scenario would be 1)Miles Murphy or possibly another premier Edge. 2)TE Sam la Porta and 3) WR Jonathon Mingo. 4) A Safety from Illinois (possibly trade up here if available). The later rounds address the O and D lines. Stetson Bennet QB in round 7 along with Kicker Jake Babo. If we get a pick from the Jets we could consider trading down but only after a cost benefit analysis based on probabilities as there are no certainties.

In total agreement. I think Smith-N... is a big risk.

So trade down, Get more picks. The whole draft is risky, at a 30 - 50 percent sucess rate. So get as many picks as passible. Especially in the top 60.

I only had two players in my Tier One (and one of them is Jalen Carter, who has issues) and 9 more in Tier Two if one bumps 4 QBs up into that tier. Then about 10 in Tier 3 and 15 more or so in Tier 4, mostly with GB's preferences in mind due to some deficiency in height, weight, speed or injury. Couple of guys like Mazi Smith, whose tape I love but I don't like players who refuse to run a 40, 10, 3-cone, shuttle, bench, at both the combine and their pro days go in Tier 3, and perhaps 4. I am not going to rely on a year-old article called Feldman's freaks for his numbers, which should have made him a top prospect, nor do I like the attitude he had in some of his interviews.

This is for the “experts”:

EDIT: this is in reference to the 2023 DRAFT (otherwise it’s way too easy!)

Tell me RIGHT NOW the names of at least 10 first round busts.

Tell me RIGHT NOW the names of at least 10 players that will be picked in round 4 or later that will be the next Richard Sherman, George Kittle, Terrell Davis, Tom Brady, and Donald Driver.

I’d guess that if an expert throws out 20 names and gets 5 of them right, he’d consider himself clairvoyant. That’s 25%.
If Gute is only right with 25% of HIS picks, the torches and pitchforks will be everywhere!

(Oh, and to show what a good sport I am, I’ll share this: I predicted GB would throw the ball on every single offensive play last year. I was correct about 57% of the time. 57% > 25%)

“Beyond the top seven or eight prospects, there are few if any players that truly deserve a first round grade.”

What???

If there’s “very little difference in quality between players selected between roughly spots 10 through 50 or 60,” how it then possible the Packers taking Michael Mayer could be considered “a first round reach for a tight end or a safety?”

Every pick after 8 or 10 is a reach?

That’s kind of bonkers.

Every draft has tiers within rounds, often running into the adjacent round.

My draft crush right now is to trade down and pick up another 2nd or possibly 3rd round pick. I want as many 2nd round picks as I can get.

I feel like if the Packers can come out of this draft with 1-1st and 3-2nd round picks, that it is a game changer for this team. I feel like if they can add 4 players that high to this roster I feel like that is going to shape the future of this team. I don't feel great about drafting a TE at 15, but if they can get one in the mid 20's I feel much better. I also feel like there are a handful of pass rushers in the mid 20's I feel better about taking. Trading down makes the most sense to me. But you have to have a trade partner.

If they can come away with a WR, TE, Edge and DL in the first 2 rounds I would be thrilled!

WR I feel like 2nd round, maybe 3rd is where they will have the best luck with. But it wouldn't surprise me if they went WR in the first round. A lot of the WR's don't really fit the Packers typical size. So it will be interesting to see if they look at one of the smaller WR's. Zay Flowers Jordan Addison, Josh Down, Tyler Scott. All of which are under 6' tall and under 180 lbs.

TE/Edge I feel like they could go 1st or 2nd round.
TE there are a number of guys that would be upgrades for our offense. But there are some questions with all of these guys as well. Mayer doesn't have elite measurables, Kincaid coming off back injury, Washington wasn't the primary TE at Georgia, LaPorta is smaller, Musgrave missed most of last year due to injury. That is why i see 2nd round more likely.
Edge there are some guys that aren't the size they normally have gone. Would they go for one of those guys? One guy to keep an eye on is Nolan Smith. He is an explosive guy, and from Georgia. So they could very well be drafting him in the 1st round. The last 3 1st round picks of the Packers have been from Georgia. Smith could be the 4th in a row. He would be another explosive player on the defense.

DL maybe later first or 2nd round they could get a guy. There aren't a lot of big NT's in this draft. Mazi Smith would be one of them. I'm not sure if GB is looking for a NT type but he would be a guy to keep an eye on. An intriguing guy to keep an eye on is Calijah Kancey. He is in the Aaron Donald mold. An explosive type in the DL. Put him in between Clark and Gary, and he could provide something we don't have at that spot.

I also think they will draft a developmental QB. I can see them looking at Jake Haener, Clayton Tune, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Jaren Hall, Tanner McKee somewhere in the mid to late rounds.

We are a few days away until we finally have NFL Christmas! Almost time for us to see what our team unwraps for presents!

"Beyond the top seven or eight prospects, there are few if any players that truly deserve a first round grade."

The number changes by a couple players each year, but it's mostly the same idea at every draft--and every GM has a different number of guys with first-round grades on his board.

"Don’t be surprised if the predicted QB feeding frenzy at the top of the draft doesn’t happen. The most credible scouts don’t seem to be nearly as high on guys like CJ Stroud, Will Levis and Anthony Richardson as the media people are. "

Most of those QBs will still go ahead of 15, but having one or two of them (Richardson or Levis) on the board at 15 creates an opportunity for the Packers to sell that pick, if they're not sold on their board. Just like Jordan Love, QB needy teams (or teams anticipating QB needs in their near future) will want to see how far those guys slide, and when price point hits value--that will generate opportunity for the Packers. TBH, I don't get the love for Levis...and I think Richardson has disappointment written all over him.

"However, it is a very good second and third round draft "

Transfer-friendly rules and extra college eligibility due to Covid are helping to raise the floor on many prospects and create a cache of players who would likely have been day 3 or UDFAs in past years without the extra boost. Many of these guys who are 24 or 25 years old seem to be mostly capped out. The mantra on the draft for many years has been "weak at the top, value on day 2." At some point, we need to accept that as the norm and not think of it as something remarkable in that particular year.

"Most over-hyped player...It has to be Jaxon Smith-Njigba."

I think he'll be a really good security blanket, #2-type, out of the slot. This coaching staff doesn't seem to value small slots...they seem to want big players in that role (Lazard, Tonyan). Don't get me wrong, I think this offense needs some variety, and a guy who can get open off the snap would be a great get to support 10. A little concerned with soft tissue injuries, but JSN's not a good enough fit with the current Packers coaching mindset to throw #15 at him.

"My Day Three Draft Crush...Running back Dewayne McBride."

One or maybe both of AJones and Dillon will be gone in 2024. Packers need to be looking ahead with their RB room.

I've studied Branch, Mayer and Kincaid a lot. All would work at 15. Branch is the most pro ready safety this class in my opinion.

But trading back always requires someone to trade with. One thing that could happen is if C.J. Stroud falls. Bob McGinn's report on the mental ability test the draftees took probably hurt Stroud's draft status. If Stroud falls to 15 some team might be willing to give up a bunch to get him but that is pie in the sky.

If the Packers trade Rodgers this week they most likely would get one of the Jets second rounders. A first at 15, then a couple of picks in the 40's would be a nice haul for a team needing young inexpensive players.

Right now my crush is Darnell Washington. He can immediately make a contribution as an inline blocker and looks like a freak athlete that has the smarts and desire to quickly become a mismatch in the passing game. Beyond that I think we look for difference makers at DT, OT, and EDGE. The OtT can even be a bit developmental, UNLESS we can get our mitts on Paris Johnson or Darnell Wright.

Ken Lass "Beyond the top seven or eight prospects, there are few if any players that truly deserve a first round grade."

What is a first round grade ?

Ken Lass would have you believe it is some mythical but undefined gold standard against which this draft is measured. In fact if you look at the supposed first rounders that commentators reckon are first round picks, then EVERY. SINGLE. YEAR. there are less than 32 first rounders, a lot less. It is utterly stupid and to say there are only about 8 players worthy of a round one grade this year, its beyond the farthest reaches of madness.

I can tell you how many first round picks there are this year, exactly 31. If you want to express the relative talent this year (compared to others), that's fine, just say this is a draft that is fairly deep but lacking in top prospects. Don't try to tie players to a first round where about 23 players (according to Ken) will be overdrafted.

Ideally, players should be assigned a grade, say a percentage score and the top 32 grades are (pre-draft) the likely first rounders. Now you have a better way of expressing the talent level in the draft. You can point to the lowest grade that is still in the top 32 and compare that grade to previous years scores. That should work much better in showing you the strength of this draft, relative to other years, Certainly it is a much better way of comparing the quality of this draft to previous years.

This doesn't show which position groups are relatively good or bad compared to other years unless you organise grades by position, but it does indicate how good this draft is overall.

The truth is each draft is an entity in its own right with its own strengths and weaknesses and this draft should be judged on its own merits. Look at who you think are the best 32 (well, 31 this year) and call these your first round picks.

There are many ways to talk about this draft and its strengths and weaknesses, but the way Ken chose to use, is just about the worst possible and most meaningless.

PS To be fair to Ken, he did go into more detail about this draft later, its just that outdated way of describing the first round that I take issue with.

Hey Ken, I’m curious What scouts you follow and that you feel are cream of the crop. I’m not as big of a trade down as some, especially when we were in a win now mode. This draft I think it would be a good idea. We are in a rebuild so more young talent the better. Of course, a trade takes two to tango and if nobody will trade a give back good value than you have to go with taking the BPA.

I also feel that Jaxson Smith-Njigba is overhyped, overrated, whatever... I would much rather draft Dalton Kincaid at #15 and use him in the slot, than waste that pick on JSN, who might be "just okay" at his WR job. We will not be getting much, if any, value at #15, if we draft JSN there. I doubt Gute looks at any WR in Round 1, anyway. I feel the value on WRs is higher, on days two and three, in this draft. When I say that, I am thinking of A.T. Perry, Johnathan Mingo, Michael Wilson, Tank Dell, Jalen Wayne, Derius Davis, Demario Douglas, Tre Tucker and Dontayvion Wicks, types of players at WR, on days two and three.

In the first round I don’t draft guys who while healthy won’t test. I don’t draft guys with attitude problems either. I want footballers: guys who give consistent effort and are focused on playing.

I don’t draft questionable athletes (unless my scouts are completely convinced the testing is an anomaly): great second team players are not first rounders, sorry. All the skills and attitude aren’t enough if the physical attributes aren not adequate. Branch and JSN to me run the risk of being great college players who struggle to make an impact in the pros. That’s not a gamble I want to make in round one.

Add those to the small group of elite/blue chip players and this first round is a crap shoot. There are very few players for fans to latch on to. I think that’s why we are seeing some players hyped by different sections but less so by the pros. Bijan is good, but now he’s a guaranteed generational guy, JSN is a star in the making despite his concerning lack of long speed, etc.

Buyer beware in this draft. It could be a no trade affair, there could be a lot of reaching by GMs who see a fit or attributes in players others don’t. I’m not a fan of the DL or OL I see likely to be available at 15. We might get an edge if we are lucky, but otherwise I’m trading down if I can.

My best rated players I want are probably late first rounders. I don’t like the fits at WR. How many slot types do we need? How many boundary guys and TEs do we have?

The more I look at it the best slot might actually be Johnston. Thrives in contact, great hands, size, catch radius and while not sudden has speed after he has got going. More than JSN. Then there are the TEs who are mostly WRs. After that, the perimeter options are later and more developmental. Skip the little speedsters—we have Melton already, that’s a luxury we can’t afford early or possibly at all.

I’m almost certainly wrong (0 for 2 last year), but if we don’t take an edge, I hope we can trade back. I’d even consider doing that twice in some circumstances. I’d look for a Kincaid, LaPorta or Johnston as slot/TE/Lazard types. I would Love Washington as an upside gamble and blocker/red zone guy now. Late first/early second.

There are DL in the 3/4 I think, safeties in the 4/5s we need more picks. That’s the probable best route to value in this class. We have six picks as it stands in the first 5 rounds. We need an Edge, a TE, a Lazard, a perimeter WR, S and DL at a minimum. That’s your 6. That doesn’t get us duplicates or an OL. More picks would help. We aren’t going to hit on everyone.

Those 4 7ths and UDFAs have a chance to help this year, but we don’t need STs. Can we unearth a contributor there? If so at what positions? One may well be a K. Another may be QB. Picks are going to be gold dust this year given the roster we have and the cap we do not.

This year we need to have an overall strategy for the draft that goes some way to ticking off needs boxes. I don’t like that, but that’s the hole we’ve dug ourselves into. No luxury picks. This would be a great time to get that trade done. Any picks have more value this year than ordinarily for us as I see it.

Maybe not the conventional wisdom or a popular view, but it is how I see this draft in light of our position and this class. Fingers crossed and thank goodness it’s finally going to happen very soon. Even better if it sees the Rodgers situation finally resolved and pick(s) this year. We need them.

I am a proponent of a trade down this draft due to excellent depth and Packer positions needing reinforcements.

I also realize the attractiveness of a #15 trade down depends on who remains on the board and is coveted by teams sitting 16-31.

What makes this draft fascinating is while there is never a consensus Top 15 before the draft...so rarely does the actual draft reflect a pre draft mock Top 15... this year's opinions are all over the "board" more than usual.

Expect a wild ride this week. How Gutey manuvers through this draft, at this time, probably makes it the most important and consequential of his tenure.

Come on Team Gutey! We need ya! (I just hope Mark Murphy is locked out of the room.)

Repost

Depending on if the Packers get a second from the Jets and have 3 picks in the top 50, what should be there priorities? I say DL, edge, OL. They can always find a TE or WR later on, even a S or CB as well. But it all depends on the Rodgers trade and what the other 14 teams do before the Pack picks at 15.

Very good post, CW. I too think Q Johnston could be a better slot investment than JSN. In fact, I’ll add some other guys who I think have just as good a chance of being equal to JSN if used primarily as a slot: Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Dalton Kincaid, Sam LaPorta, Jonathan Mingo, and even Luke Musgrave!
If JSN is worth drafting at 15 because he is“a good slot,” I’d suggest reconsidering one of these other guys, who offer that and MORE.

Here’s a great safety candidate: from TCU, 6’2” , 215#, 4.55 40, played CB and SS, 3 career interceptions and 4 sacks.

His name? Innis Gaines, and yes he’s already on the roster and knows the system.

My point is that the bottom-of-the-roster guys have just as much potential as this draft year’s safeties. I certainly wouldn’t take one in the first or probably even second round.

I feel the Packers should draft an Edge rusher with the first pick. We had the 5th worst sack total in the league. Nor could we stop the run consistently. There are are several that would fit the Packer model of ht, wt ,speed athleticism and strength. To be specific Mile's Murphy. I liked some others earlier until I found out Miles ran a 4.51 at his pro day a few weeks ago. So, hopefully if he is there at 15. We grab him. He will most likely not be on the board later in the round. If he is not there take Nolan Smith. The knock on him is he is not big enough. I suppose the same could be said about Clay Matthews. Not big enough. lol. The Packers need play makers. Period. If both are gone take A. Adabaware. Edge rushers are probably (next to QB) the most important players on the field. That is why the good ones go early. Get a TE in round two. If the top ones are gone take Sam La Porta. Then just ride out the draft wherever it takes you. We have 10 picks . We have quantity we need quality.

With so many holes, I just hope packers do not lose picks in first 3 or 4 rounds to trade up.

My kind of article Mr. Lass! I was saving content below for draft night, but your article stoked the fire, and admittedly, it's been a couple weeks.

Wary of JSN...Garrett Wilson & Chris Olave shared the field during his banner year.  You can't argue with his elite twitch / agility which allows him to create separation; his lack of top speed; however, is well versed on tape.  Kupp or Cobb mold?  Prefer to trade down to mid / late 20s, and like a hearty Thanksgiving dinner, 2nds please.

On tape, affinity for these specific players, more or less from a value perspective:

EDGE Felix Aniduke-Uzomah
TEs Kincaid, Kraft, Washington
WR Rashee Rice
RB Tyjae Spears

Reposting draft relevant thoughts from earlier this year...

Draft crush remains EDGE King Felix...whoever put together his tape deserves an Oscar.

Metaphysically, I have DL Mazi Smith & WR Kayshon Boutte as the two highest injury risk players in the first 100 picks, both 7 life paths born on 7 days.

De'vondre Campbell is in his enemy year.  If misfortune strikes, theoretically ILB Jack Campbell could fill the void.

Dont draft Mayer at 15. Maybe 2nd round. Average blocker and receiver not real big or fast.

Well, so much for that EPIC, TRADE OF THE CENTURY...lol

Basically a swap of 1st round picks and a 2023 2nd rounder and a 2024 pick. Pretty much what every sane person predicted. No boatloads of picks, no Olinemen included. Just Rodgers straight up.

It's official--ARod is now a Jet! Maybe we can finally talk about something else.