#PackersDaily: Who blinks first?

Reports indicate that several soon-to-be former Packers could be heading to New York as the NFL world awaits the finalization of a trade of Aaron Rodgers to the Jets

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3 points
 

Comments (26)

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Leatherhead's picture

March 15, 2023 at 05:34 pm

The Packers don't have to do anything until the season starts, they have a starting QB, and they're in decent shape salary cap wise until the season starts.. The Jets have no QB except for the kid they don't like. The pool of available starting QBs is shrinking. Who do you think will blink first?

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Coldworld's picture

March 15, 2023 at 05:55 pm

Our situation isn’t that rosy either. Know your own weaknesses before you call others. We have a very expensive QB who the world knows we don’t want—and we can’t afford to roster due to a dreadful contract negotiated a year ago by the guy sitting in front of them, Russ Ball. Know your opponent. We are relying on not turning up in the off season. I seem to recall we were relying on Favre similarly.

I think it depends on what the Packers are asking as much as on what the Jets think about alternatives and how much they like the rush lists. Buckle up and put on your poker faces.

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greengold's picture

March 16, 2023 at 07:25 am

“I seem to recall we were relying on Favre similarly.”

So much so that Murphy McIdiotpants flew to Mississippi with $10,000,000 cash in a suitcase.

How did that work out?

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Wilment's picture

March 15, 2023 at 06:23 pm

,For all the starters that want to flock to NY to follow AR.....who cares? When we won the NFC north last year on our way to winning the NFC championship and Super Bowl 57....oh, wait That never happened We finished third, under five hundred and couldn't manage to beat the lions at home to secure a wildcard spot. "Win and in". became "Lose and snooze" This group didnt underperform last year. It was not a great group I love all of them, AR, Lazard, Cobby, Lewis, but lets face it, with the exception of the jets, nobody made a big run at Rodgers Cobb if he moves on will be with his fourth team in four seasons and, as with most of his career, missed games with injuries and isnt getting younger Lewis was and is an accessory piece The only guy out there id jump to grab is Lazard. It s time to move on, Love these guys and the memories, but move forward. GO PACK GO

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

March 15, 2023 at 08:41 pm

Schefter is reporting that the Jets want to re-work AR's contract. I can't imagine what can be done to mitigate the cap consequences of AR's contract save for a pay cut or moving the date AR's 2024 $47M roster bonus becomes fully guaranteed from February 16 to March 18, 2024. That would allow the Jets to cut AR with a post june designation when the new 2024 league year starts if things didn't go well in the big apple during the 2023 season. If they have to cut AR February 15 to prevent being obligated for $47M more, they would have to find $43M in cap space prior to the start of the new league year. Probably doable but it would hamstring th eclub.

If the Jets have not reached an agreement as to the terms of AR's contract, has AR consented to being a Jet?

The Packers want more picks than the Jets want to give up.

LEVERAGE:

Jets:
The Jets have climbed out on a limb pretty far. They have an owner who might want AR and doesn't like GMs who can't deliver what he wants. Still, I think the Jets GM could explain that 2 firsts and a second plus $108M for AR over 2 years was just too steep. Yes, a bunch of QBs signed elsewhere, but the GM doesn't think Carr, Smith, Garoppolo, Bridgewater, Dalton and the like get them over the hump like AR might have been able to. I think signing Lazard for $11M could be defended on its own merits. Hiring Hackett might be more difficult especially if the Jets have a bad offense in 2023.

That all said, the Jets FO would have egg on their faces. They don't have a lot of cap space so they cannot sign too many players while they hold space for AR.

Packers
GB just told AR they don't want him. That may have motivated him to play in 2023, and initially to consent to play in New York, but perhaps he doesn't want to alter his contract or take a pay cut. Now that he's motivated to play, it would not be a good result if he reported to the Packers OTAs in June. The dead money increases from $40.3M to $68.2M in 2024 if AR plays for GB in 2023. More if the $47M roster bonus kicks in. If AR retires, no draft picks.
If AR plays for GB, no draft picks in 2023. AR becomes the player with the highest cap hit for a single season in NFL history and the most expensive backup QB in NFL history. Or he starts ahead of Jordan Love. Perhaps GB can trade him in 2024, but he is a year older, no knows how he played or if he will play ahead of Love, or if he will want to play in 2024. Maybe no 2024 draft picks, and probably fewer picks.

GB is under the cap, and has just enough to get through the season, assuming Campbell's new restructure and an extension for Gary. The Packers don't know if they have to hold upen $$9.44M (8.69M + $750K offset) that it costs to trade AR. That makes it hard to sign Tonyan and outside FAs. Gute likes to sign FAs to shore up holes prior to the draft. Still, they might be able to sign a guy to two, plus some close to minimum guys (like Tyler Davis, who just re-signed).

A deadline might be the April draft. Another might be May 3, when the Packers have to decide on picking up Love's 5th year option. Nor do I think the Jets will hold $16M in cap space open for AR for any substantial period. And they probably won't want to double down on signing Marcedes Lewis and/or Cobb without knowing for sure AR was coming. Will those players wait to see what happens between the two teams? Will they wait for AR to agree to contract terms? Not that those contracts would be too large for the Jets, but the potential egg on their faces is already substantial if this falls apart.

Advantage: Packers.

But it isn't as overwhelming an advantage as some might think. Then again, I know nothing about Jets owner Woody Johnson. Saleh is not on the hot seat. The GM might be if this goes south. Can the Jets back out? I do think the Packers FO can still screw this up royally. Gute, Murphy, Ball and LaFleur also are pretty safe for the short term, for sure.

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SoCalJim's picture

March 15, 2023 at 08:56 pm

Things I don’t think the Jets can do:
Have Rodgers meet with Jets coaches, learn the playbook
Have Rodgers meet/practice with Jets players
Market Rodgers to the fans and local media (no Jets pressers)
Sell Rodgers Jets merchandise
Negotiate a new contract with Rodgers

If another team decides they suddenly need Rodgers, Green Bay can explore that. Rodgers would only balk if that team was very unattractive, otherwise, his interest in continuing to play will lead to his acceptance. The Jets would be screwed.

Perhaps I’m wrong on some or all of this. I’m happy to be corrected, but, this is why I think the Jet’s have less leverage than the Packers.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

March 15, 2023 at 09:20 pm

That all sounds right to me.

IDK about the likelihood of another team making an offer for AR. Who has the cap space? Who has the need? Who has a good enough team to be a contender if they acquire AR reasonably? I do know a bunch of QBs signed recently. Bridgewater is still looking for a $25M deal. Wentz, Ryan, Mariotta, Minshew are out there.

That said, I don't really know, so there might be a team out there which could be interested if this deal falls apart.

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BirdDogUni's picture

March 15, 2023 at 11:02 pm

I think if it gets to Friday without getting done, I think the NYJ fanbase will have a %'in Cow... If it goes another week after that, there might be protests in the streets.

I don't know when the Packers have to do something, but I don't think the Jets can wait that long, period.

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greengold's picture

March 15, 2023 at 10:36 pm

Thanks for sharing this TGR. Your thoughts shared are super helpful, per usual, and greatly appreciated.

Anyone who works deals for a living knows:

1. Both sides must feel they are getting something of value for a deal to work.

2. Time kills all deals.

3. Don’t lose sight of the prize. Keep your eye on the donut, not the hole.

Mr. Mark Murphy better not screw this up. Same holds true for Mr. Woody Johnson.

Two gigantic, historical fan bases are counting on this.

The money the NFL will reap altogether in this trade when it happens will be immense, on a scale that eliminates “if” it will happen entirely. The NFL and Roger Goodell will do their best to facilitate this one.

It will be exciting. I’ll be stunned if Bakhtiari isn’t included in this trade.

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BruceC1960's picture

March 15, 2023 at 10:13 pm

Titans ?

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greengold's picture

March 15, 2023 at 10:50 pm

Bruce, the only one who can say no to the Titans jumping in is known to be a Mr. Salvatore Lawrence Cap.

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BirdDogUni's picture

March 15, 2023 at 11:07 pm

Spotrac has Titans with $17 million in cap space right now. How much do you think they could clear if they really wanted to?

How the Saints got Carr under the cap IDK... Seems like they're always in cap hell, but always get things done that seem impossible too. I don't understand it... Lol

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greengold's picture

March 15, 2023 at 11:29 pm

Me either. I was just goofing around. Again. LOL

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

March 16, 2023 at 02:12 am

No sweat for the Titans. Releasing Ryan Tannehill with a post-June designation generates $27M in cap space, and there are lots of other places the team can go for more space. And TN has a ton of space in 2024.

Derek Carr has an AAV of $37.5M but his first year cap number is $7.2M. That's just 20% of AAV! Horrible! Saints continue to play games with the cap. I guess there is a lot to do in New Orleans so not fielding a terrible team is important for the finances?

[I think you were not reading CHTV when I analyzed the Packers poor habits regarding using particularly low percentages of AAV for a first year cap number. Detroit, Chicago and MN all were running about 65% or 70% and the Packers were about 55%. And the signing bonuses used by GB ran about 31% of the total value of the contract whereas the other teams in the division were in the low to mid twenties. To paraphrase Senator Everett Dirksen, a million here, a million there, and soon it added up to real money.]

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BruceC1960's picture

March 16, 2023 at 08:47 am

Him again..

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

March 16, 2023 at 02:16 am

I thought I would link this article by Jason Fitzgerald of OTC on the leverage issues. It is good as far as it goes, but is just one viewpoint.

https://overthecap.com/a-few-details-and-thoughts-on-the-aaron-rodgers-c...

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

March 16, 2023 at 03:36 am

I also thought I would re-post this comment here as it is buried in a 200+ comment thread elsewhere. It envisions what happens if NY and GB dawdle, Cobb and Lewis sign elsewhere, and AR gets pissed so he reports to GB and plays for the Packers in 2023. He might get pissed after GB told him to go play for NY and then driving a hard bargain that the Jets back out.

Cutting AR post June is a terrible outcome. The result is:

$30.405M dead in 2023 - so almost no cap relief this year;
$68.2M dead in 2024.
No extra draft picks in 2023 or 2024.

Finding $68M in 2024 would be hard. OTC has GB $17M under the cap now with 30 players signed for 2024, so if GB has 51 or more, zero cap space (21 players times $795K = $16.695M, and OTC projects a $256M salary cap for 2024) . Lose $40M since AR is gone, still need $20M. Cutting Bakh saves $21M, so GB is in the black. No Gary on OTC's list, so what is his cap number in year two of his extension going to be? Probably at least 12M, better if it were $17M on a $23M AAV extension? So GB is negative $12M to $17M and needs at least $12M to sign draft picks, 52/53rd players, PS, and some cushion. So they have to mangle Jaire again, or Kenny, and maybe Douglas and Campbell.

It could be done, but the Packers would be in cap hell in 2024 if they do it that way. GB would be out of hell, even out of purgatory by 2025, so there is that.

I still like AR as a player and think more highly of his prowess on the field than many do here on CHTV. When I tried to construct a contract for AR last year, I sadly but definitely concluded that the Packers should trade AR to Denver. They instead signed him to a monstrosity of a contract.

For me, the numbers led then and still do lead inexorably to the conclusion that AR should not play for GB. It has nothing to do with AR being a jerk, or whether Murphy is dumb, or any other speculation as to fault. It is a no fault divorce and the assets are being divided.

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greengold's picture

March 16, 2023 at 07:48 am

Level headedness extraordinaire. Thanks, TGR.

I’m curious your thoughts on compensation. To me there are trade offs, some not really mentioned much using Stafford’s deal to gauge.

Jets favor:
1. AR is a massive cap expenditure

2. Jets & AR may have talked about not mentioning playing multiple years for the Jets. This would help NYJ to characterize the trade as being for one year of the player’s services, lowering the compensation.

3. AR is 6 years older than Stafford was at the time of his trade from DET.

Packers favor:
1. AR is already a Super Bowl Champion who has been there before.

2. AR carries with him 4 MVP trophies.

3. Though AR’s legs & arm may not be what they once were, there’s not a better veteran game manager on the market.

4. Rodgers is less than 400 days removed from winning the MVP.

5. AR played with a broken thumb last year, lowering his level of performance.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

March 16, 2023 at 09:49 am

I tend to look at what I would do. Jets owner Woody Johnson wants AR. According to other posters Woody already said he'd pay two first round picks for AR. No question the Jets put some prestige behind their pursuit of AR.

GB has no money. They can't help with AR's cap costs, though perhaps they could do so in 2024. NY has to pay $59.3M for one year of AR, who might then retire. They don't have a lot of cap space so they exercise the option and account for $15.8M this year, and put the remaining $43M on the old credit card.

Then there is the $47M roster bonus that becomes fully guaranteed on Feb 16th. That's a lot more dough unless AR is a top 5 QB. NY has a lot of cap space in 2024 but also lose some big names, including Quinnen Williams, Carl Lawson, Corey Davis, and Jordan Whitehead as UFAs. They probably re-sign some, maybe all of them. Davis is iffy.

GMs gave way more money than I would have to Derek Carr ($37.5M AAV with $70M guaranteed), Geno Smith ($35M), Jimmy Garopppolo ($24M).

I think NY doesn't want to part with pick 13. I don't think they would do two firsts unless Woody Johnson is a crazy, meddling owner. So, I'd give up pick 43 and a first round pick in 2024 without conditions. Maybe the first goes to a second if AR is injured, retires, or NY doesn't make the playoffs?

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greengold's picture

March 16, 2023 at 10:00 am

I disagree with two R1s being characterized as crazy, if you'd see my breakdown of the similarities/differences in the Stafford and Rodgers trade scenarios in my reply above.

Rams took on Stafford's $42M contract and ate Goff's $22M dead cap hit.

Not entirely dissimilar to what Woody Johnson walked into here.

Stafford didn't walk into LAR with half of Rodgers credentials. At some point, there needs to be an evening out on this discourse, where age/cap hit is offset by a far more attractive set of credentials walking through the door.

Market value was established by what the market bears. My own pricing has worked according to those simple laws of valuation for the last 20 years, not unlike any other business.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

March 17, 2023 at 01:06 am

Perhaps.
Stafford was 33, so LAR was looking at 5 years or more.
Stafford got $63M fully guaranteed. AR said hold my beer.
TBH, Stafford got $120M guaranteed/ 5 years. AR, $108M/2
AR said he was 90% retired.

True:

AR >>Stafford, even now and likely for '23, and '24.
Teams pay a lot for QBs. Carr got $37.5M, $70M guaranteed.
Teams send 2nd rounder for half year rentals all the time.
NO gave a future first to draft Davenport.

Correction:

Lions ate $19M dead, but it was all accumulated dead money from previous years.
Rams ate $24.7M dead, with all but $2.5M being accumulated dead.

You may be right and your evaluation system might be accurate. I am surprised on what GMs will pay for a QB and what they will pay for the right to draft a QB.

Never let your accountant run your business. You need to know the numbers. I might whisper the odds into an ear, but I let the poker player play the hand.

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dobber's picture

March 16, 2023 at 10:25 am

Rumor is that the Packers have had a call or two and have been listening to other teams. I don't know if that's accurate.

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greengold's picture

March 16, 2023 at 01:58 pm

It's absurd, because NY media is positing it only being for 1 year of Aaron Rodgers' services, which is complete BS and drives down perceived value.

Why? Because AR has not stated he would play for more than one year. That all needs to be clearly communicated, publicly. Privately? He and the Jets likely discussed all of this, and are allowing this discourse to drive the narrative.

"Leave it ambiguous" is Aaron Rodgers' MO. That shit don't play here, homie. You want to be honored by the Packers? Then treat them with the respect they deserve.

On that note, somebody please tie Mark McIdiot Murphy to a chair without a phone at 1265, please... FFS. How on earth did they think it was a good idea to hire this knob of a communicator?

DO YOU NOT HAVE QUALIFIED PR PEOPLE, Packers? You want to make some calls...????

Other teams would gladly give away two R1s... but then there are the other hoops to jump through.

Aaron might want to re-think this, and commit to playing for the Jets for a 2 year minimum. The Packers can play hard ball.

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CheesedDeadHead's picture

March 16, 2023 at 10:06 am

"Cutting AR post June is a terrible outcome."

I believe the best outcome (if a Jets trade falls through) would be a post-June 1st RETIREMENT. Rodgers was 90% for retirement before his journey through darkness, so he may still be of the mindset. How do the Packers encourage him? By offering him a 12-year personal services contract for say $10M per season. That covers his remaining contract $ (plus interest - think of it as a deferred payment) and get's him off the market, he retires having only played for the Packers. Rodgers merchandise sales over that period would likely off-set the contract cost and free our cap. We only get cap relief, but we also don't have a still good QB with a chip on his shoulder coming back to haunt us.

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Lphill's picture

March 16, 2023 at 05:50 am

Is it far fetched to think Rodgers winds up in San Fran , Purdy has to heal up and Trey Lance needs to learn , and Jimmy G is gone .

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DoubleJ's picture

March 16, 2023 at 12:58 pm

I am all for taking the full cap hit this year so the cap should be very healthy in 2024.

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