Packers' Playoff Odds Dwindling According to ESPN's FPI
Sunday's loss at home to the New Orleans Saints didn't exactly help the Green Bay Packers' chance of winning the NFC North -- or even making the playoffs, for that matter.
According to ESPN's Football Power Index, the Packers' chances of winning the division now sit at a underwhelming 13 percent, whereas their chances of making the playoffs are at 33 percent, 13 percentage points lower than where they were before Sunday. The Minnesota Vikings, now leaders of the division at 5-2, have over a 70 percent chance of winning the NFC North.
The reasoning behind such low percentiles that clearly don't favor any postseason appearance for the Packers is majorly due to quarterback Aaron Rodgers suffering a broken right clavicle in the Oct. 15 loss to the Vikings.
Rodgers is expected to miss at least eight weeks minimum, leading to the team placing him on injured reserve on Friday, one day after he underwent surgery on his collarbone.
There's a chance Rodgers can begin throwing after six weeks, but while on I.R., he won't be able to do so with the team. A target date for his return -- in a perfect world -- is Dec. 17 against the Carolina Panthers.
However, in the meantime, this team belongs to third-year quarterback Brett Hundley.
He was less than impressive against the Saints, only throwing for 87 yards and an interception, but still managing to run in a 14-yard touchdown. Coach Mike McCarthy admitted to having to simplify the gameplan for Hundley, leaving both the former UCLA Bruin and the rest of the offense out of sorts in his first career start.
The Packers enter their week eight bye with a handful of execution and playcalling deficiencies to address, including getting Hundley on the same page with his receivers. All three leading receivers [Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams and Randall Cobb] combined for five catches and 40 yards en route to just 260 yards of total offense.
Their 27 points scored in the last two games are the fewest by the team since the final two games of the 2015 regular season when the team had Rodgers at the helm.
When Rodgers broke his left collarbone in 2013 and missed seven games before returning for the season finale against the Chicago Bears, the Football Outsiders playoff odds report gave the Packers a 5.9 percent chance of making the playoffs by the first week of December.
For what it's worth, there's still time for this 4-3 football team to right the ship before their post-bye Monday Night Football meeting with the rival Detroit Lions.
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Zachary Jacobson is a staff writer/reporter for Cheesehead TV. He's the voice of The Leap on iTunes and can be heard on The Scoop KLGR 1490 AM every Saturday morning. He's also a contributor on the Pack-A-Day Podcast. He can be found on Twitter via @ZachAJacobson or contacted through email at [email protected].
Comments (33)
Since'61
October 25, 2017 at 12:07 pm
The Lions game following the bye week is really critical because after that we have 2 very winnable games versus the Bears on the road and the Ravens at Lambeau. The Lions game will be the toughest of those 3 games but if we can beat the Lions at Lambeau we could go 3-0 and get to 7 - 3. That would keep us in playoff contention at least, going into the final 6 weeks of the season.
Our final 6 games include games with the Bucs and Browns, 2 more winnable games. We also play the Steelers and Panthers on the road, Yikes!! and finish the season with the Viqueens at home and the Lions on the road to finish the season. If Rodgers can return and we're 9-6 or maybe 10-5 we could be playing the Lions for a playoff spot or even the division. Who knows, but crazier things have happened in the NFL.
In any case I'm holding out hope until the Lions game after the bye. If our defense shows up and MM let's Hundley play we may still have a shot at this season. If we have another miserable showing like the second half versus the Saints we're probably cooked for this year, we may already be done anyway but I can't give it up yet.
If our defense gives us yet another, "we can't get off the field until our opponent scores effort", I'll be looking for Capers head, that's for sure. I'm probably just whistling in the dark hoping for the defense to ever carry this team. Thanks, Since '61
Finwiz
October 25, 2017 at 12:36 pm
Come on Since '61, you're painting the most optimistic scenario possible.
They won't go 3-0 in these next 3 games, I can almost guarantee that. More likely 1-2, but 0-3 is entirely possible because the Bears are better defensively than NO and look how that turned out.
We need the high draft choice more than sneaking into the playoffs this year.
ZacharyJacobson
October 25, 2017 at 01:08 pm
The transitive property of football doesn't exist. Just because a team loses or plays poorly against another doesn't dictate future match-ups. If anything, this 2017 season has taught us that. So many unpredictable outcomes.
Finwiz
October 25, 2017 at 02:36 pm
Lions played the Saints and scored 38 on turf. Imagine what they'll do against our D? Ravens away won't be any easy game either. Lucky to by 2 & 1, more likely 0-3.
Since'61
October 25, 2017 at 08:21 pm
Fin - we're playing the Lions at Lambeau after the bye. They scored 38 points indoors in the Superdome against New Orleans. 21 of those came in garbage time after the Saints led 52 - 17. We're also playing the Ravens at Lambeau not on the road and the Ravens have been terrible so far this season. As for the Bears they are playing better but anything can happen in a division game. All I posted was that if we can beat the Lions we can go 3 - 0 in the next three games. We might lose to the Lions and go 0-3 but I'm not giving up on the season yet. Thanks, Since '61
Finwiz
October 25, 2017 at 09:59 pm
I understand, but there was no garbage time for GB against NO was there? It was still 17 points - ALL DAY. At least the Lions can point to success in garbage time. We had no success to speak of, other than a great game by a rookie RB that should be a 3 down back.
jeremyjjbrown
October 25, 2017 at 01:45 pm
I don't think the Packers have any "very winnable" games ATM. Not even the Browns.
Pauly
October 25, 2017 at 01:57 pm
Question for you "Since '61"?
If CMIII stays at ILB with Martinez 3 downs full time with House/King as press corners, Burnett or Dix safety, Jones SS, Randall slot corner.
I am thinking this simplified scenario, replacing Nitro and all the personnel substitutions would be able to defend about anything most offenses would use.
Would this be making best use of 32 yr old Clay's skills, experience, will to dominate, run and pass coverage going forward and at same time simplifying DCs complicated defense.
Future pass rushing doesn't rely on CM anyway, it's a young man's position.
Finwiz
October 25, 2017 at 02:39 pm
So essentially your asking Capers to change the entire defensive philosophy mid-season? They spend the entire off season preparing this "Nitro-package", don't think they'll abandon it that quickly. This isn't a very reactive coaching staff. They don't make in-season adjustments. Like I've said previously, "a leopard can't change it's spots". It's harder to change the older you get. Capers is old, so draw your own conclusions.
Pauly
October 25, 2017 at 03:49 pm
Unfortunately you're right about old. I'm 76 and have first hand knowledge about it.
I already posted I think DC is too slow in thought processing the changes Sean Payton was making because of Caper's age. With Caper's experience, if he was 50 yrs old, there should not have been any confusion. That happens,, I clearly remember "what the hell" were they thinking when they let Kaepernick run a second 80 yrds on them in 2nd half of playoff game a few years ago. Where was the halftime adjustment? Were they brain dead? Yeah!
But personally, I would make this kind of change in a heartbeat, especially after chaos we have seen so far in the defense. Nitro is way too complicated with changes needed for run and passing downs. When Capers came up with it he was desperate and didn't know Martinez was going to play this well compared to last year.
Now, learn and change going forward or repeat the screwups.
Give Martinez the com helmet until Burnetts back. With his play and CM's skill and maturity and far less substitutions needed maybe the young defense will settle down and play.. Maybe.
Anyway it's too late this year for much of a pass rush, if it happens will be because of healthy Perry, Beigle and healthy Brooks not CMIII at 32. I think use CM where he can play well and not get hurt easily.
Finwiz
October 25, 2017 at 06:44 pm
I still can't believe what I saw that day Kapernick ran for 182 yards in the playoff game. That was the most RIDICULOUS display of defense I've ever seen for a pro team. They had no flipping clue how to contain that read option - a pro team, with pro athletes. Not college - pro's. They essentially made Kapernick's entire career that day, he became a star because he made the Packers look ridiculous, and nobody could believe GB could be that bad, so it must be this unknown superstar QB. That's when I knew Capers was done....a joke. He's been a joke to me ever since. Jokers don't need to be coaching in the NFL.
As an addendum, if Kapernick wouldn't have gone off the rails with this protest BS, I'd be ALL OVER the Packers to bring him in. Then again, he'd probably already be employed, so it wouldn't be an option. Do you realize he was like a 4.0 in college at UNLV? Very smart guy. When he was good with SF, I was really impressed. This protest thing got way out of hand for him and cost him millions.
badaxed
October 26, 2017 at 07:37 pm
capers change or adapt...........LOL
Since'61
October 25, 2017 at 08:09 pm
Pauly - I agree that package could work however, I don't think the Packers will make those changes to their defense. I for one would like to see Josh Jones get more snaps. I would also like to see King and House as press corners. As for CM3 I think that it is best to move him around as we did during the 2014 campaign. He can play inside but if we keep him inside opposing OCs will be able to limit his effectiveness. I would move outside on certain downs and situations to make the QB account for him on every play. right now the biggest issue for the Packers defense is lack of a pass rush and poor tackling. Those two issues must be addressed when the team returns from the bye. Thanks, Since '61
RCPackerFan
October 25, 2017 at 12:10 pm
In reality if we had Rodgers we would likely be 6-1 right now. We are currently 4-3. So its pretty easily to see that our record is already impacted on Rodgers loss.
Mojo
October 25, 2017 at 01:20 pm
ESPN -"Packers' Playoff Odds Dwindling"
No $hit Sherlock.
ZacharyJacobson
October 25, 2017 at 01:34 pm
Thanks.
Finwiz
October 25, 2017 at 01:40 pm
LOL! Right?
Does the Pope wear a beanie??
jeremyjjbrown
October 25, 2017 at 01:46 pm
Why show up just to be a dick?
RCPackerFan
October 25, 2017 at 01:47 pm
hasn't that been the comment section on here for quite some time?
jeremyjjbrown
October 25, 2017 at 02:05 pm
Yeah, but I don't recall it from him...
Mojo
October 25, 2017 at 02:44 pm
My comment was aimed at ESPN, hence that's why I included them in the original comment. It wasn't meant for Zach or CHTV.
When I read the headline the first thing that came to my mind was "No $hit".
jeremyjjbrown
October 25, 2017 at 05:49 pm
Ok, cool.
Lphill
October 25, 2017 at 04:18 pm
It's amazing other teams can start a backup QB with less experience than GB and still win, Hundley gets his first start and you would think he just got picked up off the street the way he played or was it just MM holding him back. Let's see another start before we give up on him. As far as the Defense I think Capers just does not know how to use the players he has in the right fashion , he may not be up to speed with today's football .
Packer_Fan
October 25, 2017 at 04:59 pm
This season will go only as far as the coaches go. MM has the players on offense that he wanted. He needs to find a way to have Hundley be successful. This is third year for Hundley, he knows the system. The Pack still has offensive weapons galore. He even has a running game. Not having Rodgers is no excuse for MM to be at or above .500 when Aaron returns.
I have no idea why the defense is this bad. Capers need to convince these young players to play better, or change the system mid stream to allow them to be successful.
LASVEGAS-TOM
October 25, 2017 at 05:43 pm
Well, If any of you think GB still has a chance to Win the NFC or the SB, Now would be the time to put a few Bucks on them. Last I looked they were 20 - 1 to Win the NFC, & 40 - 1 to Win the SB.
LVT
Flow49
October 25, 2017 at 05:54 pm
If history tells us anything the Vikings and the Lions will remember by about mid November that they don’t belong in the drivers seat of the north and start blowing games left and right. Leaving the door open for an 8-7 packers team to win their season finale and back into the wild card.
Tundraboy
October 25, 2017 at 06:25 pm
MM needs to put up or shut up. As for Capers, what's the point. Perhaps D will be so pissed off after last week, that they play there annual great game.
HankScorpio
October 25, 2017 at 08:55 pm
"Never tell me the odds!"
-Han Solo
4thand1
October 25, 2017 at 09:03 pm
Playoffs?!, You talken playoffs?
Johnblood27
October 25, 2017 at 09:13 pm
"Were just tryin to win a game"
Point-Packer
October 25, 2017 at 10:56 pm
This team has zero chance of making the playoffs with Hundley. Zero.
Thegreatreynoldo
October 26, 2017 at 01:29 am
If MM had to simplify the playbook for Hundley after 3 years, I can't think of more damning indictment. Hundley has good size, good running ability, and a good arm. He should be able to run our normal offense. At least half of what makes a QB good is between the ears.
HankScorpio
October 26, 2017 at 06:35 am
The lips of the Packer staff say they have confidence in Hundley. Their gameplan says they don't.
I believe the gameplan more.