Packers Periscope: Wildcard Round at Washington

Up Periscope against the Packers wildcard opponent, Washington.  Will this be the start of a long playoff run or another one and done?

The Past

It’s kinda been a long time since the Packers played Washington, Sept. 15th, 2013 to be exact.  RGIII was still relevant at the time and Mike Shanahan was the head coach, but not for long as he was fired at the end of the season.  Part of that was due to ending the season 3-13, with one loss coming the Packers, 38-20.  Aaron Rodgers threw an unspectacular (at the time) 4 TD and 480 yards for a 146.0 QB rating while James Jones and Randall Cobb combined for 306 yards.  James Starks also pitched in a career game, going 132 yards on the ground and a touchdown in relief of Eddie Lacy, who suffered a concussion.  On the other side of the ball RGIII threw for 320 yards and 3TDs but also logged an interception and was sacked 4 times for 39 yards.     

The Present

Overall Team Efficiency

Packers

Washington

10.2%

-0.3%

Offense

Overall

2.5%

1.9%

Run

-5.7%

-23.6%

Pass

14.4%

31.5%

Defense

Overall

-7.3%

5.4%

Run

-7.9%

-5.5%

Pass

-6.8%

13.6%

Special Teams

0.4%

3.2%

Quarterback (DYAR)

428

1028

 

(All statistics courtesy of Football Outsiders, click here for a detailed description of DVOA and DYAR.  And as always defensive DVOA is the inverse of offensive DVOA so negative numbers are better.)  

From a statistical perspective, there’s not much better team the Packers could have faced than Washington.  The Packers are an above average in passing and below average in running and the Washington defense is the exact opposite, where the pass defense is below average while the run defense is above average.  If there was any game that the Packers passing game has no excuse not to be effective, it’s likely this one.  On the flip side is somewhat similar, Washington has absolutely no running game to speak of (they have the worst running DVOA in the league this year) but a pretty good passing game; while the Packers aren’t as one sided, the Packers are actually decently good at defending both pass and run. 

The biggest difference is special teams, which again isn’t all that important, and QB DYAR, where Kirk Cousins is smoking Aaron Rodgers, whose pass DYAR has been steadily falling for months now.  The loss against the Vikings at home was huge, not only because it went from a predictive to a cumulative model but also because Rodegrs should have produced a lot more than he did. 

Overall, this is a very winnable game for the Packers, their statistics show key advantages, mostly on defense and in the passing game and all that matters now is that the Packers produce somewhat akin to what their season average. 

The Future

It seems like every year, one division sends a team to the playoffs when they shouldn’t have.  A couple years back it was the NFC west, then the NFC south, but this year it was unequivocally the NFC East.  At one point every team was skirting at 6-7 and no team appeared even interested in winning games, let alone make the playoffs.  Out of that mess, the “Washington team” (also known as those who shall not be named, stupidly in my opinion) some how managed to back into a playoff berth. 

Unfortunately, the Packers have been so inconsistent this year that it’s not a sure bet that they win but even if they don’t I don’t imagine many people will be predicting Washington from getting much further into the playoffs.  In the end, a disconnect between management, coaching staff, players and most importantly the owner will continue to plague this team; case in point, the RGIII debacle only highlights a team that has no sense of foresight and no real identity to rely on.  No matter how this game ends, at least Packers fans can rest easy that there is a “Packers way”.     

NFL Categories: 
0 points

Comments (15)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
Ibleedgreenmore's picture

January 08, 2016 at 12:53 pm

Would sure love to repeat that performance, it will be what it will be but I do miss the explosive offense.

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
brewers_rule's picture

January 08, 2016 at 01:12 pm

I don't think I've ever heard as much about this DVOA stuff from FO as I've heard this week so I figured I'd educate myself about it in regards to Packers opponents for 2015 to see how much optimism we should have for Sunday based solely on that stat. So here goes:

Based on the fact that Washington is 15th overall, I looked at a few opponents around there that we faced. Minn's 11th & we split w/them but lost recently. Detroit is 13th, we split w/them and won recently on a last second play. Oakland's closest at 14th & we won a close one in their house. There's Chicago at 19th, who we split with but lost recently to. Then there's SD at 24th & SF at 29th, who we looked marginal against but won over.

Based on all that, I'd say we're in for another close your eyes and pray day out of the offense. They could rise to the occasion against the bad pass defense & surprise or they could continue as we've seen & lose by 7-10pts. Given the track record of the last 10 games, you be the judge.

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
Archie's picture

January 08, 2016 at 01:36 pm

McFatty's last chance to get it right. Lose here and he is done in Packerland, or at least should be.

Will he run it with the RB that looks like he ate the other RB? Or will he throw with the QB who thinks everyone around him sucks? How do we dump MM's $40MM contract? Big mistake to eat.

First year w/o Hawk and voila, the defense is suddenly much better. Who would have guessed? Maybe anybody not named McFatty or Teddy boy?

People say TT chooses shit players from East Podunk because they are cheaper. Yet he spends his full salary cap just like most teams. Implication - he overspends to keep his own. Thus he can't/won't compete in market for proven skill players. He should have a rule: everytime he misses on a top 3 draft pick, he should offset with a proven free agent. Instead he spins his wheels or worse yet, goes backward.

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
Bohj's picture

January 08, 2016 at 01:59 pm

Wow dude.
You want to rip on the management and players for their poor performance fine. But it's pretty distasteful to rack up fat jokes. I mean fat jokes? Really!? So why aren't John Madden, Mike Ditka, Mike Holmgren, or Andy Reid in your attack on heavier people? I'm sorry that the Greenbay Packer football season wasn't to your expectations......but now instead of dissecting the team thoughtfully and methodically.....it's straight up come to attacks on decent human beings? Good god. Time to reconfigure what matters in life and what does not. Personal attacks add nothing to yourself or anyone else here. It's not like Coach McCarthy or Thompson punts pooches. Can't imagine a set of guys that should be more respected in their community with all the philanthropic causes.

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
DukeDivine's picture

January 08, 2016 at 02:16 pm

You're better than that Archie.... Just like "MAshed Potato Mike" is better than "McFatty"

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
Portland Mark's picture

January 08, 2016 at 02:19 pm

McFatty? Really? Are you 12 years old? Your name says "Archie" and your name calling sounds like the fictional Archie Bunker. How about respectfully disagreeing without the name calling?

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
4thand1's picture

January 08, 2016 at 07:54 pm

When will these parents police their kids?

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
Amanofthenorth's picture

January 09, 2016 at 01:30 am

To all regime change "fans", are you outta your damn minds? Imagine Pittsburgh firing Tomlin because the steeler's pass defense is so bad one year but they are still in the playoffs. You want to send your franchise into the abyss? Firing a good coach is how you do it.

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
Mebrooks5291's picture

January 08, 2016 at 02:07 pm

packers lose by 21

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
Mebrooks5291's picture

January 09, 2016 at 08:32 am

sorry their offense has been in the crapper for 2 months . will not win at wash.

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
Razer's picture

January 08, 2016 at 02:07 pm

Not sure that I would characterize Washington as "having backed in to the playoffs". They have played well down the stretch and are as worthy as any to represent their division. While the Packers secured a spot vis-a-vis their 6-0 start, they are by far the coldest entry into the fray. Technically we didn't back in to the playoffs but we are the poster child for a team in reverse.

Despite this, we have our best chance in recent history to avoid another one and done playoff. Let's hope that somebody shows up on offense. Go Packers

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
4thand1's picture

January 08, 2016 at 07:56 pm

The NFCE is horrible. The lolions would win it.

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
PETER MAIZ's picture

January 08, 2016 at 08:28 pm

I'll give some reasons why the Packers can't win. 1. Rodgers has been sacked 46 times this season, 2nd worse in the NFL. 2. Rodgers' completion % is 60.7. 3. the receivers can't get open. 4. The offense finished 25 overall. 5. The Packers converted 33.65% of third downs which was 27th in the league. I'm with Pete Prisco when he says that the Packers ought not to run isolation routes (where the receivers are supposed to win their one-on-ones) where they would be more productive if they did pick, rub or bunch formations. The defense is in the middle of the pack (no pun intended) and is missing Shields.
The Cardinals are a pedestrian team in the secondary but have lights out wide receivers and one of the best tight ends in the business. Cousins is steady, accurate and is not throwing interceptions. If the Packers lose, I will not listen to the McCarthy broken record. The latest from McCarthy was the team "didn't deserve to win the NFC North because the players didn't play up to standards" or something to that effect. So, he in effect, threw his players under the bus.
Last reason the Pack can't win.....too many injuries.

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
jeremyjjbrown's picture

January 08, 2016 at 08:37 pm

"Packers ought not to run isolation routes"

And yet they keep trying. Isn't there a famous witticism misattributed to Einstein about that.

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
Razor's picture

January 09, 2016 at 01:05 pm

Personally having a hard time hanging in there with Mike and Ted. Both wonderful human beings. They have had ten years to do their thing. Great super bowl in 2010.

But then an embarrassing 2011 playoff loss in Lambeau to the NYG and a general trend of poor playoff results since then. Making the playoffs is one thing (thank you NFC north) but the results have been disappointing at best.

And then there is the 2015 season. Even when they were 6-0 something didn't feel right. Lately it seems like McCarthy is losing the team. Blame the players if you like, but these are the guys that Mike and Ted chose.

It just doesn't feel right after 16 games to "hope they figure it out" and make a run in the playoffs.

Bottom line - since 2010 the trend is down. Who is ultimately responsible? - Mike & Ted

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0

Log in to comment and more!

Not a member yet? Join free.

If you have already commented on Cheesehead TV in the past, we've created an account for you. Just verify your email, set a password and you're golden.