Finally, the Packers get to face a team with a fanbase as depressed as theirs.

Imagine being a Falcons fan.

This franchise already had the national reputation of choking under pressure. No matter how talented the team is or how promising the season may seem, Falcons fans wait for the inevitable collapse. It’s similar to the mindset of the pre-2004 Red Sox fan.

But imagine the combined hope and paranoia of Atlanta fans when they led the Patriots 28-3 in the Super Bowl two years ago. I think most Packers fans have yet to fully recover from the NFC Championship collapse in Seattle four years ago. A Super Bowl failure of that caliber could take decades to move on from.

There are similarities between these teams this year as well. The Falcons have a very good veteran quarterback whose counting stats are good this year, just not MVP-caliber. The offense is good, but a far cry from the machine it was two years ago. On paper, the Falcons seem like a good team.

Yet they’re 4-8.

A 1-4 start had to have hit like a ton of bricks, yet the Falcons dug in and responded by winning three straight games. Once they clawed back to .500, Atlanta lost four straight, and they enter this game with their season basically in the bag.

There’s nothing significant at stake, so let’s just root for a Packers win for the pure joy of it. The culture around sports has gravitated toward a championship-or-bust mentality, but let’s not forget the simple bliss of a Victory Monday.

131

Great googly-moogly. The Falcons managed just 131 yards of total offense in last week’s 26-16 loss to the Ravens. That doesn’t even include the 82 penalty yards conceded by the Falcons in the game. The box score from this game is incredible.

Atlanta’s running game basically didn’t exist, but perhaps most damning, and familiar to Packers fans, is the pitiful inefficiency of Matt Ryan in the passing game. In 29 total dropbacks he threw for 131 yards and lost 34 yards on three sacks. That’s 3.34 net yards per attempt from a former MVP! That’s worse than the NFL’s worst rushing team’s yards per carry.

For context, Aaron Rodgers’ flaccid game against Arizona last week was more than a yard better at 4.45 net yards per attempt: still gross, but not quite as horrifying. The difference may be that Ryan’s pitiful game came against Baltimore’s elite defense.

109.3

As previously mentioned, Matt Ryan’s counting stats have been pretty good, much like Aaron Rodgers’. Ryan’s 109.3 passer rating is the sixth best in the league this year, yet his team is 4-8. It is notable that the Falcons’ defense has been injury-riddled and terrible (more on this later) and they’ve still been in some close games, but I start to wonder if there’s a trend emerging in the NFL.

The league has made rule changes so advantageous for passing offense, that I’m not sure traditional quarterback stats are indicative of winning anymore. Clever offensive coaches can generate near-elite production from decent-to-good quarterbacks.

The very top of the passer rating leaderboard follows the top of the NFL standings pretty well: Drew Brees, Pat Mahomes, Philip Rivers, Russell Wilson and Jared Goff. But the rest of the top-10 is a mixed bag of quarterbacks who’ve had different narratives and wildly varying team success: Ryan, Deshaun Watson, Carson Wentz, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Cam Newton. Aaron Rodgers is 11^th.

A decade ago, good quarterback play seemed to guarantee playoff contention. Now it seems to be the standard, and winning teams separate themselves in other ways.

16.9%

The Falcons’ defense is dead-last in the NFL, with a defensive DVOA of 16.9 percent. That is to say that opposing offenses are about 17 percent more successful play-for-play than league average. Key injuries early in the year have really hurt Atlanta’s defense, and they’ve proven to be too thin to recover.

But we learned last week that this Packers team can surprise against even seemingly helpless foes.

It’s been strange to see the Packers making national headlines for off-the-field news. That always felt like something other teams do—not us. It will be good to get back to actual football.

The Packers’ offense should be able to move the ball on this defensive unit. Maybe Aaron Rodgers can find himself or perhaps Aaron Jones will have a career day. There’s a chance that Joe Philbin’s playcalling will be a breath of fresh air. But keep some spiked egg nog handy, just in case.