Hello Wisconsin: 5 Big “What Ifs” from the Packers’ 2022 Season
Looking back when there's not much to look forward to.
By TimBackes
The 2022 season is still technically ongoing for the Green Bay Packers, but most people by now have abandoned any hope of it truly continuing past week 18.
Coming out of a bye, I’m actually a little more interested in looking back than looking ahead. The game against the Rams this weekend is nearly meaningless; the Packers have only a tiny sliver of hope for a playoff berth that would likely only lead to a first round exit anyway. The Rams are out of this with multiple key players sidelined with injury.
The Packers have looked a bit better lately in some respects, so it’s worth wondering how things might have played out had certain things happened (or not happened) earlier in the season.
Here are a just a few examples.
1. What if Christian Watson had been healthy all year?
Christian Watson barely hit the field in training camp due to injuries, and did not play in the preseason. Most of his first half of the season was lost to a series of frustrating injuries as well, to the point where some morons had started to call him a bust or a bad pick.
What if Watson had been healthy all year leading up to this point? What sort of effect would that have had on the offense earlier in the year? Are there other games that suddenly become more winnable?
I don’t think it’s entirely unrealistic to say a healthy Watson could account for two or three more wins on the season for the Packers. He’s truly made a significant difference for the offense, and in games where the offense was struggling, he may have been able to be a major factor in the team eking out a win.
But also, he’d still have been a rookie. Who knows how he’d have developed so early? Who knows if Rodgers would have even trusted him, especially if he still struggles with drops early on?
2. What if the Packers had a healthy offensive line?
Going along with the injury theme, one also has to wonder how a healthy, cohesive offensive line would have made things different this year.
David Bakhtiari’s injury history is well known. Elgton Jenkins came back relatively early in the year but even then didn’t really come on and start to look like his old self until the last month or so.
Had Bakhtiari never been injured at all, it’s not unreasonable to think the Packers would be back-to-back champions (or at least have won one championship of the last two). But even just this year, his health, along with that of Jenkins, would have made a pretty big difference, especially considering the other deficiencies this team has struggled with on offense this year.
3. What if the Packers had simply won one more game?
A single game could have made a big difference. Had the team beat the Giants, Lions or Commanders, for example, they’d be at 6-7 and at least have one tiebreaker with a team in playoff contention. With the Giants and Commanders tying the other week the tiebreaker there isn’t completely relevant, but still; it’s a very different conversation for the Packers if they were sitting at 6-7 instead of 5-8.
Just a few plays’ difference and the Packers would have a much greater shot at actually slipping into the playoffs.
4. What if the Packers had made the decision to trade Aaron Rodgers in the offseason?
I certainly do not harbor any delusions that the Packers would be in any better position than they are right now had they decided to go in on Jordan Love and take the king’s ransom for Aaron Rodgers. But it’s hard for me to think they’d actually be significantly worse off in the standings than where they are at the moment.
They’d certainly have a lot more assets, both in cap space and in draft picks, with the potential for another high earned draft pick this spring.
What would the development of those young receivers look like with a full season of Jordan Love instead of Aaron Rodgers? In fact, what would the development of Love himself look like? It’s fascinating to think about.
I have been vocally on the “should have traded Rodgers” team since January. And I have a feeling that had people known what would come of this season, many more would have been on that side as well, simply because a lost season with a 39-year-old quarterback isn’t exactly something you want to have to deal with.
If Rodgers is back next year, the Packers will have another opportunity to run it back with him and try to win one more championship under his leadership. But if this ends up being the only year we have to judge the deal on, then it just further cements the fact that the Packers made the wrong decision.
5. What if the Packers had somehow managed to retain Davante Adams?
Was losing Adams really that big of a factor in the Packers’ descent into mediocrity (and worse) this season?
Certainly, losing Adams had at least SOME role in the Packers’ offensive woes this year. But what would have happened had the Packers actually brought Adams back?
Of course, Adams actually would have had to have been willing to stay in Green Bay, which he wasn’t. But say for the sake of argument he was.
First, the Packers likely wouldn’t have re-signed Rasul Douglas or De’Vondre Campbell. Probably doesn’t make that much of a difference for the defense this year, considering how bad they’ve been.
Second, it’s hard to say if the Packers draft Watson or Doubs (or at least both) if Adams is around on a new deal. Sure, the Packers still would have needed some wide receiver help with MVS being gone, but they likely wouldn’t have felt as pressured to take a receiver early, and certainly not to trade up for one was they did with Watson.
Adams might have made the difference of a few games this year. But so too may have a healthy Watson. Ultimately, in the long-term interest of the Packers, having guys like Watson and Doubs to work and grow with is something of a blessing.
Wisconsin Beer of the Week
As I mentioned a couple weeks ago, I spent my afternoon on Black Friday heading out to several breweries around Milwaukee to grab their special releases. I already shared one Component Brewing Company beer I purchased on that day: a s’mores stout. Now I’m going to share another: a pretty solid Christmas ale/dark lager called Ho Ho Hold My Beer.
Coming in at a healthy 7.1 percent ABV, this winter ale is malty with just a little bit of spice that is befitting of the holiday season.
I also purchased a barrel-aged variety of the same beer that I’m saving to crack open on Christmas Eve. Very much looking forward to that one!
Component has grown nicely over its few years in Milwaukee. They recently moved into a new taproom (same building but significantly more space) and have a nice patio area now as well, with regular new releases. Highly recommend paying the Lincoln Warehouse a visit if you’re ever in the Milwaukee area; you can hit three breweries and a distillery all in the same building!
Around the NFC North
Once again we’ll take a quick look around the NFC North at what the Packers’ rivals are doing.
- The CHICAGO BEARS are coming out of the bye with nothing but draft position to look forward to (much like our own Packers, really). They have a legitimate chance at having the top overall pick in the draft, and they’re certainly a team that needs it. The Bears could easily spend such a pick on a tackle, edge rusher or playmaker of any type. Or, if they wanted, they could even trade down just a few spots and get an even bigger haul. But as for this season? Just riding it out at this point.
- The DETROIT LIONS are suddenly one of the league’s hottest teams and a team that not a whole lot of people probably want to take on at the moment. They’re playing at a level of confidence that far exceeds their team’s actual talent. It helps that Jared Goff is actually playing like a franchise quarterback and not someone the Lions just grabbed out of convenience until they could find a real long-term replacement. Jamaal Williams should be a pro bowler, by the way, and it’s extremely well earned!
- The MINNESOTA VIKINGS are sitting at 10-3 and yet not really scaring anyone. The are a contender in the sense that this is a very weak NFC, but is there any team in the conference that would be frightened about having to go into their stadium to take them on? We may very well be looking at a repeat of 2017 with the Eagles laying the smack down.
Final Look: Rams at Packers and Week 15 Picks
It’s hard to get very excited about Monday night’s game. The Rams are dead and in contention for the top pick in the draft. Their injury list is obscenely long. The only meaning this game has is to give the Packers false hope and worse draft position.
That being said, I’m still cheering for the Packers to win, because of course I am. And they probably will. But the response will be little more than “meh.”
Packers 23, Rams 17
WEEK 15 PICKS
49ERS over Seahawks
VIKINGS over Colts
RAVENS over Browns
BILLS over Dolphins
EAGLES over Bears
LIONS over Jets
PANTHERS over Steelers
CHIEFS over Texans
SAINTS over Falcons
COWBOYS over Jaguars
CARDINALS over Broncos
PATRIOTS over Raiders
CHARGERS over Titans
BENGALS over Bucs
GIANTS over Commanders
PACKERS over Rams
LAST WEEK: 8-5
SEASON TOTAL: 121-87
PLEASE SUBSCRIBE TO OUR CHEESEHEAD NATION WEEKLY NEWSLETTER HERE.
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Tim Backes is a lifelong Packer fan and a contributor to CheeseheadTV. Follow him on Twitter @timbackes for his Packer takes, random musings and Untappd beer check-ins.
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Comments (63)
NickPerry
December 15, 2022 at 06:27 am
4. What if the Packers had made the decision to trade Aaron Rodgers in the offseason?
Personally I can't wait to read all the comments from my fellow Packers fans and this "What If". What I do know is the Bronco's currently hold the 2nd overall draft pick which will be going to Seattle for the Russell Wilson trade. THE 2ND OVERALL PICK! Now that's in ADDITION to what they already received in the 2022 draft, Noah Fant, and a slew of other players and picks.
Hey, maybe Rodgers get's them one or two more wins...OR, maybe he has the same misfortune as Wilson did and ends up playing for a Head Coach who has NO BUSINESS being a Head Coach. Sorry people, there is NO WAY anyone can tell me the Packers did the right thing. Never mind the whole blowing up their cap AND future for the next few years. Never mind giving Aaron Rodgers the PLAYER so much control over your future. Nope, now we have a QB who will torture us with the will he or won't he play for the next two years, AND a losing record!
PackyCheese500
December 15, 2022 at 07:27 am
I agree, and I think Gutekunst would have traded him. Mr Mark Murphy is the culprit behind that decision, likely.
It can still be saved with a trade of Rodgers this off-season. Maybe we can still get some good draft capital. Also, if Rodgers was traded to the Broncos, they’d probably be doing at least somewhat better because of Rodgers’ familiarity with Hackett and their #4 defense, which means we likely would have gotten a later pick.
UdderApocowlipse
December 15, 2022 at 09:10 am
That is an important note you made about how if Rodgers was captaining the Denver ship, the team very likely would not be earning a #2 pick.
As far as your statement about Mr Mark Murphy being the culprit and not Gutekunst, what is the evidence for that being likely? Not that I wish to pillory Brian Gutekunst, which is wholly inappropriate, as I think the franchise is finding itself at the tail-end of a spectacular run and everything that has happened is to a large degree expected for a franchise finding itself in similar circumstances.
All I can think of is the 49ers after Montana/Young. We've been so fortunate. Thankfully as I imagine Love's potentiality I'm knocking on a wood desk. So darn fortunate.
Skimming my mind there's no GM I'd be more comfortable with the Packers having right now than Gute. If Murphy can suck some of the fan ire toward himself and away from Gute, then he's probably doing a good job as a boss.
Since'61
December 15, 2022 at 10:33 am
Udder in early January 2022 Murphy stated that "We're not idiots." in response to a press conference question from the media about the Packers resigning Rodgers. When I heard that I knew that Murphy had eliminated any negotiating position the Packers may have had. That comment by Murphy gave all the leverage to Rodgers and his agent. Gute was done at that point. In March the Packers announced that they had extended Rodgers for basically $50 million by season.
At that point if I was Rodgers agent I would tell Gute this is how much it will cost the Packers not to be idiots.
So here we are. Murphy is interested in keeping the Packers relevant. In Murphy's thinking Rodgers keeps the Packers relevant in the league. Rodgers is the money maker for the Packers. We've seen Murphy's decisions over the years and they are all about the Packers revenue streams. For example, his investment in Titletown, rising ticket prices, sales. of shares, and committing big money to Rodgers. The team and the on field results are secondary to building and maintaining revenue.
As for Gute, he's done a good job as GM but he's made his share of mistakes along the way. I'm not sure that I would prefer Gute over every other GM. My prime example is 7 first round picks on defense and our defense is an open sieve especially against the run. Coaching is definitely part of it but the quality of the picks, especially in the first round needs to be considered more closely. Thanks, Since '61
PackyCheese500
December 15, 2022 at 11:23 am
Remember, Gutey has only been our GM since 2018. Here are a list of his rd. 1 defensive picks:
Alexander (hit)
Gary (hit)
Savage (had 2 good years, but fell of under Barry. An eventual bust)
Stokes (unknown; had an outstanding 2021 but a year 2 regression before he suffered his injury)
Walker (unknown, but promising)
Wyatt (unknown)
We have 2 hits, 1 bust that was good, and 3 unknowns. I don't think it is Gutey's fault that Wyatt doesn't see the field enough. Also, Walker's biggest college strength was his tackling. Gutey knew that it would help our run D, and drafted him for that purpose. Somehow, that has gotten worse over the past month or so. Incompetent coaching and bad culture, perhaps? Gutey's fault that Quay hasn't tackled well as of late? I don't think so.
His biggest whiff as GM was undoubtably taking Josh Myers over Creed Humphrey (who leads all centers in pass block win rate). There was no reason to do that, and it still boggles me to this day
barutanseijin
December 18, 2022 at 01:54 pm
Gary took a long time to develop and then suffered an ACL. The development time was longer than what you want for a #12 pick. and who knows what Gary will be like after recovering from the ACL. Considering how little actual production they’ve received and the question marks, the Gary pick wasn’t great.
NickPerry
December 15, 2022 at 02:03 pm
I had thought of that but I'm still not so sure. I suppose they'd have won a game or three more with Rodgers...maybe, but when you consider he doesn't do OTAs, mini-camps, or anything like that anymore, he's have to get used to an entirely new O-Line and WR Group.
Then again I'm so disgusted with the whole not trading him...
bjkdad44
December 15, 2022 at 07:33 am
Bingo!
Guam
December 15, 2022 at 08:34 am
"Personally I can't wait to read all the comments from my fellow Packers fans........"
Nick, I don' think anything will change at all with the comments. There seems to be "trade Rodgers" fans and "keep Rodgers forever" fans and there is no middle ground. I find your logic compelling and have for more than a year, but then again I belong in the "trade Rodgers" group. I will be surprised if your logic persuades any of the "keep Rodgers" group to switch sides. Good luck!
Leatherhead
December 15, 2022 at 12:06 pm
Two years ago, when the draft drama broke, I was in favor of moving Rodgers. I don't like drama that much.
Shows what I know. He went out and won the MVP two years in a row. I would have traded him away for draft picks.
Like everybody else, I didn't think it made any financial sense to bring him back this year, and that we'd have been ahead to take the draft picks and play Love. But from an on-the-field perspective, I also thought we'd be a better team this year with Rodgers instead of Love, even if Rodgers wasn't the MVP, and I thought Love could benefit from another year of seasoning.
The financial fallout from signing Rodgers is going to handicap us to the tune of $40 million over two years, a 16/24 split. IMO, it's going to necessitate making decisions for financial reasons, and not football reasons, and I hate that, but this is what happens when you go all in and fall short. We're there. Bakhtiari, Jones, and more are probably going to be released.
Rodgers, and the Packers, lived through the Favre stuff and I'm sure they'd both like to come away from this looking better than back then, and I think that's possible.
My personal prediction? Rodgers says he'd like to play another couple of years, someplace warm, where they need a QB. Like Carolina, or Atlanta, or maybe Tampa . This gives him a chance to exit like the good guy, who wants to go someplace and "pull a Brady" by taking a losing team and transforming it with his magnificence. It gives the team a chance to name Love as the guy.
The trade won't happen until after the draft, so the compensation will come in 2024.
It is what it is. Personally, I'm looking forward to the next four games. Rodgers has been a good QB for us for quite a while, but he's reached the end here. I think he'll be more graceful than his predecessor was in this matter.
T7Steve
December 15, 2022 at 12:48 pm
Rodgers has always amazed me with his ability to turn his play around. It's like he has to have something to prove someone wrong for it to be worth turning it on. After the Viking game this year (like the Saints the year before) I thought would be it. Although we won the next 3 games it wasn't because of him. And it hasn't happened since. Even he couldn't overcome the issues of the O-line.
When was the last season (19?) that he didn't have at least one game approaching 400 yards? How many 300-yard games has he had this year? I don't think it's all on him. As with the D, there's a real coaching problem on this team and maybe that's easier to overcome than his albatross of a contract (that's not his fault)?
NickPerry
December 15, 2022 at 02:08 pm
Thanks Guam... On a podcast this week I had heard a guy mention when he had talked to Rodgers about next season, Rodgers replied "He didn't know or wasn't sure WHERE he'd be playing", or something very close to that.
Bottom line is we're in for MORE of the will he or won't he winter/spring...I say TRADE his ass to the Jets. He LOVES Robert Saleh and Mike LaFleur is the OC so he step right in and know the offense. They have some good to excellent WRs there and a decent TE and RBs to go with a pretty damn good defense which is only getting better... Hmmm
Hematite
December 16, 2022 at 07:12 am
I agree whole heartedly!
HarryHodag
December 15, 2022 at 06:30 am
As I was reading the column I remembered a saying a lawyer friend told me one day: "If ifs and buts were candy and nuts it would be Christmas everyday".
Jim Mora also comes to mind..."Playoffs?........."
I'm beginning prayers for the Packers faithful who will trudge to Lambeau Field Jan. 1 and Jan. 8 who pay to watch two meaningless games in an ice box. It brings me to yet another point I've made earlier: who is the brain dead NFL scheduler who schedules two outdoor games in Green Bay in January, leaving two domed stadiums empty Jan. 1 and 8?
T7Steve
December 15, 2022 at 06:54 am
I believe that it's only fair to get home games in January. They switch it every other year or so. I hate the years they play their first games at home when it's nice then have to play inside and lose the home field advantage when it's cold. I hate indoor football.
HarryHodag
December 15, 2022 at 08:13 am
Dress in layers and bring something to put under your feet in the bleachers so your feet don't turn to ice blocks.
Isn't that fun? And to make matters better, you pay more than $100 to boot.
T7Steve
December 15, 2022 at 08:24 am
To each his own. I was raised in the UP. It was always a break from the real cold to go down to Green Bay. Also, those were the only games people were willing to give up tickets to us non-season ticket holders. Especially during losing seasons.
dobber
December 15, 2022 at 08:38 am
Don't forget to pack your gloves and boots with the hand warmer packs. It works!
jont
December 15, 2022 at 05:56 pm
Not to be nitpicky, Harry, but it's never a trudge to Lambeau. I've been there a lot and still think each trip is special. Yes, it's better when they win and we've been spoiled for a while, but like many here I remember the rough years and through it all I still say a day at Lambeau is just a great day.
T7Steve
December 15, 2022 at 07:13 am
#2 should be #1. It all started with the O-line. They refused to put the best five on the field even allowing for Jenkins and Bakh.
#1 Watson wouldn't have mattered anyway. The line started jelling about the time he was getting healthy. Is it a coincidence the O started working better when the line did?
That's enough "what ifs" to change the season.
Unfortunately, the Lions aren't playing above their talent. They built a very good O-line (see above) which allows their quarterback to play the offense and opposing Ds have to respect the run. Isn't a surprise that their D is starting to play complimentary football?
PackyCheese500
December 15, 2022 at 07:22 am
Exactly. Having a good O-line makes your whole offense better. Want to know why Jamaal Williams has been getting so many goal-line TDs? Because he has great blockers in front of him. Want to know why Jared Goff is playing the best football of his career? Because he has pass blockers who give him time.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
December 15, 2022 at 09:18 am
Williams is average 4.0 ypc. Decent but nothing special. He has 14 tds because they actually run the ball out of obvious run formations on the goalline. Aaron Jones used to get a ton of goalline tds but the Packers dont run on the goalline anymore.
T7Steve
December 15, 2022 at 09:23 am
Exactly what we've been talking about. They don't because they can't rely on their line to get a push.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
December 15, 2022 at 01:32 pm
No they dont even try. And the few times they have tried were out of shotgun. This team NEVER lines up in heavy formations to pound the rock in short yardage. They beat themselves before they even break the huddle.
PackyCheese500
December 15, 2022 at 11:23 am
And they always run out of shotgun either; never under center
Philarod
December 15, 2022 at 07:20 am
Of course, I think about What-If #s 1-3 too much -- especially a healthy Watson and a healthy Bakh-led O-line, which would take care of #3 - at least one more win.
As for #4, I get how frustrating this season has been, but two-time defending (four-time overall) league MVPs who play their whole career for only one franchise are rare - very rare. Even among the only other Super Bowl-era QBs I would put in Rodgers's class, only Marino and Elway played for only one franchise. Brady, Montana, P-Manning (and perhaps, include Brees and Favre) haven't. I think it still had value bringing Rodgers back, and I don't think he's done -- much as this year has been un-Rodgers-like.
It's good to see Jamaal Williams (great energy guy, pretty good career) have a terrific year, but I'd only put him on the Pro Bowl after the following NFC backs: Saquon, Sanders, Cook, Jones, Pollard, McCaffrey. 7th best (arguably) in the NFC is a very good year, but no, he's not top 3 or 4 this year.
PackyCheese500
December 15, 2022 at 07:23 am
Williams’ success is due to Detroit’s excellent offensive line.
T7Steve
December 15, 2022 at 07:32 am
There's no back worth his weight that doesn't give his blockers the credit for his success.
Leatherhead
December 15, 2022 at 12:13 pm
Who has the best offensive line in football? One of the best offenses, for sure. You don't have a top offense without guys getting blocked, I don't care how superduper your skill position guys are.
I was worried about our Oline going into this season, thought we'd be OK when Jenkins came back, but we still struggled for a while. Once again, a guy who starts the season as the #9 or #10 guy is starting for us. We're playing Day 3 rookies in the starting lineup......that's not a sign of have a deep and talented group.
Assuming we return Nijman and Jenkins, and I certainly think we should, we have Runyan, Myers, Newman, Tom, Rhyan, Calebjones, and Walker. Right now....right now.....that's our unit. I'd feel a lot better about it if we added some legit talent to that group.
T7Steve
December 15, 2022 at 01:07 pm
During camp and the preseason that's all you CW, Since 61 and I, among others talked about. We had a few little differences (mainly for backups). For instance, CW and I were high on Caleb Jones. I think I'm the only one that didn't see Tom as an NFL tackle (missed that one bad). After the season started it took them 4 weeks to get to where we were at CHTV. Do you believe who they had starting on the right side? 4 weeks before they came to our conclusions. However, I really thought Jenkins would be better at right tackle than he was. After week two we were calling for him to be moved to guard and it took the two more weeks.
Just another example (like the D) that it's not the players so much as the coaching. Coaches are a lot easier to fix and change these days since the cap issues started.
croatpackfan
December 16, 2022 at 02:00 am
Someone should ask himself why is that fact that there is rare QBs which had played for only one franchise.
Maybe because NFL is game of replacement to lead you to success. Maybe you become to predictable with QB that long at the helm of the offense. Maybe those rare QBs knows when was the time to retire. Maybe it is that clever franchise are not feared of change. Maybe it is because rules changing from season to season, and we all know (or we should know) that every person tends to stay with things they are used to.
The most important trait one can posses is willing to change and find new ways how to do the business or to play (in any sport). As we can saw at Mike McCarthy era, he did not adapted to the changings made by league or other coaches. The same path I see with ACR.
Remember how Niners changed the whole narrative about QBs. Yes they failed to win SB despite they were strong favorite, but I bow to HC of Ravens who found the way to defensively stop them.
World is changing every second and we have (doesn't matter how hard it is) to follow that changes, if not to lead them.
That is the only way for success.
MainePackFan
December 15, 2022 at 07:28 am
What if we had taken our bye after the London trip? I guess we will never know. With hindsight being 20/20, I can't help but think MLF regrets that decision.
croatpackfan
December 15, 2022 at 08:12 am
You want to play ifs? Try play lottery. Same result. Or start betting. Same results.
Building the roster and selection on coaches is business decision. In business there is no ifs. You may make mistakes with your predictions, but you pay for it.
I would like to add only one if. What if Packers organization trully keep their employees accountable? That would be nice. Isn't it?
But only who lose for those ifs are fans. Who waste time and nerves on people who are acting without any accountability and fans may just complaint. Nothing else. Problem is that Packers do not have true owner that will lose money for every f*cking wrong decision and punish the guilty one for that loss.
Packers are in twilight zone now. And that is the worst position. They do not have person with sight for future. And that is why they are stuck in past. And past can never win over future. Never ever.
dobber
December 15, 2022 at 08:47 am
"5 big "what ifs" of the Packers' 2022 season"
Personally, I think living in the past is a form a self abuse. It's not worth it. How about a "what's next" article based on your what ifs for next week?
LeotisHarris
December 15, 2022 at 09:00 am
Yep, there's more in the rearview than there is up ahead for most of us. Given that we're all listed as day-to-day anyway, it's best to avoid regret.
I appreciate your thoughtful articles. Tim.
Leatherhead
December 15, 2022 at 12:16 pm
Objects in the rear view mirror may appear closer than they are. Or is it that they're closer than they appear? It's one of those things. Either way, don't trust the rear view mirror.
Alberta_Packer
December 15, 2022 at 11:12 am
Autopsies have a purpose - to determine the cause of death. In this case, the "death" of this season - which could have been prevented by more responsible and competent management. IMO Murphy and his minions are guilty of organizational manslaughter. Do we want the same result from this brain trust for next year (and beyond)?
dobber
December 15, 2022 at 06:59 pm
Yes, but we don't do the autopsy. We're the equivalent of watching an episode of Dateline NBC and offering an opinion on who killed the lawyer's wife...even if we slept through the middle half hour.
BirdDogUni
December 15, 2022 at 07:49 pm
The husband...
99 percent of the time.
Just saying.
RCPackerFan
December 15, 2022 at 08:58 am
1. What if Christian Watson had been healthy all year?
I will also add a sidenote of What if All the WR's had been healthy all year? Lazard, Watkins, Cobb, Doubs, Watson all have missed significant playing time. Obviously Watson is the most important one here because he is a true difference maker. But what if the whole group had been healthy. What would be different and what would be the same?
2. What if the Packers had a healthy offensive line?
And as a side thought to this, What if they had trusted Tom from day 1? For some reason they thought Hanson at RG and Newman at RT were better then Tom anywhere? If they trusted Tom from day 1, perhaps they could have kept Newman at RG and perhaps he would be better. Maybe not, but at least he would have had a better chance to develop at the position he had experience in.
But the health of the OL has significantly impacted the offense. The offense finally has been better, and it not coincidence that a big reason is because they made the changes they made. Bakhtiari, Jenkins, Myers, Runyan and Nijman.
Going along with the injury theme, one also has to wonder how a healthy, cohesive offensive line would have made things different this year.
3. What if the Packers had simply won one more game?
The crazy part is in some of these games, all they needed was 1 or 2 plays to go differently and who knows where they'd be.
4. What if the Packers had made the decision to trade Aaron Rodgers in the offseason?
I still mantain had Love shown the development before this season they would have pulled the trigger. But lets be honest. How do you trade the back to back MVP for someone that simply didn't look ready. That would be a suicide move for the GM. If last offseason was this offseason and they had seen the possibilities of Love, I think they consider a lot more the possibility of tradeing Rodgers.
5. What if the Packers had somehow managed to retain Davante Adams?
First thing, this would be a different looking team. If they kept Adams, they likely don't have 2 of the 3 players Walker, Wyatt and Watson. Maybe they draft Watson with their pick? Or who knows, maybe they draft someone else completely. They also have a different looking draft. Perhaps they still drafter Doubs, but the first 2 picks are most likely different.
If they kept Adams though, I'm willing to bet they are much better record wise. I am willing to bet they are 8-5 to 9-4 right now. Adams and Rodgers are just on a different level. I don't think the offense would have struggled as much as it has this year. But also the future would look very different.
PackyCheese500
December 15, 2022 at 11:25 am
First of all, Adams wanted to leave, so they couldn't have retained him. Second, if he stayed, then the Packers would have been even more screwed in the future. At least they have some young building blocks now in Watson, Tom, Doubs, and Walker
RCPackerFan
December 15, 2022 at 11:50 am
Adams wanted to leave after they weren't willing to work a deal with him before it got to the point that he was done.
the biggest thing for young players is they wouldn't have Walker, Wyatt and Watson. They would maybe have one of those guys. But not all 3. And we don't know how the rest of the draft falls if they have Adams. I think they still go for Doubs. and probably still have Tom. But who knows. It changes everything.
croatpackfan
December 15, 2022 at 12:09 pm
I believe there is different reason why Davante Adams had that wish...
RCPackerFan
December 15, 2022 at 01:08 pm
Listening to Wilde and Tausch every day, definitely has made it clear that had they done the deal a year earlier, he would have stayed in GB. But they didn't want to pay him what he wanted until he said he was going to leave. Then they offered him more money.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
December 15, 2022 at 09:19 am
If they had moved on from Rodgers, this team is likely in playoff contention with Love under center.
dobber
December 15, 2022 at 09:51 am
Impossible to say.
croatpackfan
December 15, 2022 at 12:10 pm
But possible to dream about!
BirdDogUni
December 15, 2022 at 12:17 pm
No it isn't.
He just said it. ; )
I wish when AR broke his %'in thumb, we would've IRd him until it was healed. We could've seen what we needed to of Love and we might actually be in a better position than we are now. AR would be back healthy and hungry to take us wherever it is we would go...
Now, as it stands we have to win out, and there is still no guarantee we go to the playoffs.
Guam
December 15, 2022 at 09:57 am
You are truly an optimist RTS! Although greatly encouraged by Love's recent play, I am not sure he would have been any better than Rodgers this season. However the Packers would have added a boatload of young talent this year and more to come next year. They most likely would have been playoff contenders in 2023. The current team, particularly if Rodgers stays , not so much in 2023.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
December 15, 2022 at 11:46 am
Rodgers has been a blackcloud all year getting outplayed by bums like Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson, Jared Goff, etc. I think Love is better for this team than Rodgers right now. If Love played all year it wouldve been a completely different season.
croatpackfan
December 15, 2022 at 12:11 pm
"Rodgers has been a blackcloud all year..."
Not just one year... unfortunately!
Bearmeat
December 15, 2022 at 10:28 am
The future in Green Bay is not bright, folks. Cap hell. An old QB who wears the pants. A team president who cares more about making money than the on field product. A feckless head coach.
I found myself looking at the available cap figures for 2023 this morning. The Giants and the Raiders and mayyyybe the 49ers would be the only trade candidates for 12. And none of them have 50+ MIL in space.
We are going to be running it back next year - and this team is nothing more than a borderline playoff team, even if everything goes right.
PackyCheese500
December 15, 2022 at 11:28 am
Jets, man! They could easily create enough cap space because they have like 100m of space in 2024 and even more after that! By far that is the best option.
This team can still be saved long-term if we cut or trade away our aging, expensive veterans like Rodgers. Running it back would be absolute stupidity because, as you said, we're nothing more than a fringe playoff team. I don't think Gutekunst would allow it. It is time for a rebuild, which means using 2023 as a cleansing year to get out of cap hell.
dobber
December 15, 2022 at 12:08 pm
They don't need $50M because his 2023 cap hit is only about $40M and a chunk of ARod's cap hit stays with the Packers.
Leatherhead
December 15, 2022 at 01:02 pm
Bearmeat, maybe this will make it look a little brighter.
I don't know about pants, but I'm pretty sure this is the end of the line for a guy who's been a pretty good QB for us. He'll be traded post June1 , he'll cost us $40 million over two years that we can split 16/24. He doesn't have a huge salary that his new team has to absorb.
Next season, we will start with Love and Dillon and Watson and Doubs and see if we can block for them. We'll have an opportunity to add pieces via the draft. We should have a pretty decent 45 man roster by the opener next year. At least on paper.
If everything goes right.....we'd get the 7th seed by ending the season with 5 straight wins. That's a hot streak, and we'd get to play Minnesota, with a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to crush their souls in the playoffs in the BirdKillerDome. That's enough to keep me awake for another week.
dobber
December 15, 2022 at 07:01 pm
"we'd get to play Minnesota, with a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to crush their souls in the playoffs in the BirdKillerDome. That's enough to keep me awake for another week."
If you can't have a good season, f#@k up the Vilkings' season.
Since'61
December 15, 2022 at 11:11 am
What ifs are nice but the bottom line is they are irrelevant. We'll never know what the impact would have been if any of the what ifs were handled differently. The problem I see is that the Packers decision making process does not appear to comprehensively consider their options in each of these situations. The OL is a good example of failing to consider the implications of not playing their best 5 OLs.
The Watson and Adams are irrelevant. Adams did not want to remain in Green Bay for whatever reason(s). As for Watson players get injured there is no way to know how quickly or when Watson would have achieved his current level of play if he wasn't. injured.
As for Rodgers, the what if should be what if Rodgers didn't hurt his thumb or more importantly what if they sat Rodgers when he was injured and let his thumb heal. That probably results in at least one more win for the Packers and a healthy Rodgers coming back off the bye week. There is just no way to know.
The bottom line is that the Packers need to work with where they are now and to thoroughly consider the what ifs going forward from today. Thanks, Since '61
Rarescope
December 15, 2022 at 11:40 am
"Looking back when there's not much to look forward to."
Wow, what a great lead in. I don't know about the rest of you but I'm looking forward to watching an NFL game tonight. I hear there are even a few more to be played yet this year.
Alberta_Packer
December 15, 2022 at 12:00 pm
Further to points 1-5:
1. Also what if Rodgers hadn't ignored Watson for long stretches of the season - because he did not initially qualify for Rodgers sacred circle of trust?
2. A diminished O-line was the more likely scenario for this season. It would have been near impossible to replace Jenkins and Bakhtiari.
3. Hoping for another game victory - is the antithesis of reality.
4. If Rodgers had been traded - 1,2,3,and 5 would have no/less relevance - while this season much more hopeful.
5. Devante Adams - yes the offense probably would have been more productive in the regular season. In the playoffs - probably not (see previous playoffs). Besides he wanted out.
In figuring out the calculus of this season management overlooked the extreme deficit to the O-line due to the magnitude of Jenkins and Bakh's injuries - thinking that rookie receivers could replace Adams production and ignoring the decline of an ageing and recalcitrant QB. So we should not be too surprised that the team's poor on-field performance this year is a reflection of poor managerial decision-making.
Leatherhead
December 15, 2022 at 12:48 pm
"In figuring out the calculus of this season management overlooked the extreme deficit to the O-line due to the magnitude of Jenkins and Bakh's injuries ..."
That's where I line up with you. I agree with the rest of it, as well, but that has been the key to the whole shebang. I reasoned that if Aaron Rodgers had the time and protection he needed, and that if there were holes for Dillon and Jones, we'd be able to move the ball downfield and score points. That would keep our defense off the field and it would force to teams to throw to catch up rather than stick with the run. So that was the linchpin to the season.
Our Opening Day lineup would have to be considered a makeshift MASH unit.
Runyan has been a solid guy at LG. Myers played 5 good games as a rookie and then got broken. Newman had started as a rookie, but looked overmatched at RG and RT. Jenkins, coming back from a bad injury early, was playing an unfamiliar position. Then the plan was to move people around once they were sure about Bakhtiari, so they moved Nijman to RT and Jenkins to LG, but then Bakhtiari got sick so we're starting a Day 3 rookie, Tom, at LT. That's not what you're hoping for, but it's what we got on our plate.
At this point, water under the bridge. What's the plan for next year? I'm totally behind signing Newman and Nijman and drafting a stud on Day 2. The single biggest determinant of our success next year will be whether or not the line does its job.
T7Steve
December 15, 2022 at 01:17 pm
The line on both sides of the ball LH. I hate not being able to get a yard confidently (would help if we could worry them with quarterback sneaks), and that every time we face a third or 4th and short on D that it's just about a given. Even when they know they're going to run it and where.
Jgilmor08
December 15, 2022 at 01:33 pm
I would alternate or throw out a couple of what ifs and replace them with alternate questions.
1) What if Watson catches the first play bomb and scores a touchdown instead of the drop? This easily means more confidence out of the gate instead of completely deflating the entire organization on the first play of the season.
2) What if the Packers actually weren’t the worst 4th down converting team in the NFL? In 2021 they achieved a conversion rate of just under 60% (59.4%). This year they’ve converted 28.57% of 4th downs. I can personally think of 4 different examples inside the 5 yard line where they turned it over on downs. With how many 1 score games this team has played in it’s not outrageous to think they eeek out 2-3 more wins. The Giants and Commi games come to mind.
3) What if Gutekunst had actually done a serviceable job and instead of throwing a second round pick away he actually didn’t draft two development players during an all in on winning type season. But instead he packaged them for a legit Adams replacement? The first 1st round pick would be used on an OT which would keep the pro bowl guard at guard. This also gives depth and lets Bahktiari take his time coming back and uses all available tackles on the roster to benefit the team. I don’t think it’s crazy to think the recently cut Jack Heflin would serviceable fill in better for Wyatt. We also have a cheap contract UDFA linebacker who would probably be just as if not slightly under the current interior backer output (btw we had just signed the other mlb to a large contract in the off season so the heavy investment seems stupid).
4) what if the now confident Packers with talented pass catchers had flipped the three one score games into wins because of the above? Well the now 8-5 packers who have played the second toughest schedule in the entire NFL suddenly look like a completely different and a Super Bowl contender.
To summarize, what if Christian Watson hadn’t ruined the entire 2022 season on the first play of the NFL season. What if….. I’m completely joking by the way. Clearly it was Gutekunst who wrecked it.
jont
December 15, 2022 at 06:05 pm
I'm not one to look back with regret, either, but a #6 seems obvious to me: what if MLF had sat Rodgers when his thumb first got hit? The next few games couldn't have been much worse with Love back there and we'd all know what kind of QB he really is.