Extra Cheese: Aaron chats with Andy Herman
Aaron chats with Andy Herman about all the latest on the Green and Gold.
By PackerAaron
Earlier this evening, I held a live Packers chat over on our YouTube channel, talking about the news that Devin Funchess is opting out of the 2020 season.
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Comments (7)
HaroldDrake
August 04, 2020 at 02:20 am
I'm disappointed that Messrs Nagler and Herman are already speculating on the seemingly imminent departure of Aaron Rodgers. There are a number of false assumptions inherent in their readiness to have Love replace Rodgers AS SOON as the 2021 season comes along:
False or unfounded implicit assumption No. 1: Jordan Love has the same skill set and potential as Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers and that it is inevitable that he will emerge as an elite NFL starting QB by 2021. Any statistical survey of high draft QB picks over the last five years will reveal that the success rate (i.e. that the drafted college QB becomes an elite starting NFL QB) is roughly 20%. Why should we assume that Love is the second coming of Favre/Rodgers? I believe that this is pure folly.
False or unfounded implicit assumption No. 2: Why should we assume that Rodgers is about to enter a period of precipitous decline? He helped lead the Packers to the NFC championship game last year and a 13-3 regular season record followed by a mostly convincing defeat of Seattle (please recall third and long sideline pass at the end of the game!)
in the playoff game. Does this suggest that Rodgers is no longer an elite NFL QB? Why should we assume that Rodgers is not as capable as Tom Brady and Drew Brees were at the same age and that Rodgers will be able to continue to perform at a similarly high level over the next two to three years?
False or unfounded implicit assumption No. 3: Nagler and Herman believe that Rodgers will be terminated by Gutekunst SIMPLY because of contractual reasons: i.e. that Rodgers's $30 million-plus annual contract and the ability to cut him with a limited cap hit in 2022 (fellow Packers' commentators please correct me if I am wrong on this point) makes it almost a certainty that the Packers will either release or trade him GIVEN that Jordan Love's contract is only $4 million (or so) per year and therefore makes better sense in terms of allowing the team to pay for more elite players on the squad. Once again, this assumes that Jordan Love will reach the level that Rodgers was at during the last years of Brett Favre with the Packers. I believe this is an extraordinarily optimistic view. Favre and Rodgers were manifest outliers (i.e. very rare talents) and it is statistically highly improbable that Jordan Love will perform at that level. Of course, it is possible, and I hope for the Packers' sake that he WILL be the next Favre/Rodgers elite QB. However, at this juncture, I fail to see why Nagler and Herman seem to be so pessimistic about Rodgers' future with the Packers - it is almost as if they are hoping to see him leave the team.
I invite my fellow Packers' fans and Cheesehead TV commentators to weigh in on this matter.
My view is that we need to wait and see how Rodgers performs over the next two seasons and THEN assess his relative merits and those of Jordan Love. Rodgers, unlike Favre, is anxious to continue playing for the Packers for several years to come and I believe that we owe him the benefit of the doubt at this point, especially since he did play well enough to lead Green Bay to the NFC championship where it was the Packers' defense that was most at fault in the loss to the Niners.
I am truly disappointed by how ready Nagler and Herman are to accept as a fait accompli that Gutekunst is anxious if not primed to dump Rodgers at the earliest given opportunity. I would hope that Gutekunst would want Rodgers to perform at a very high level for the remainder of his contract and keep the Packers' Super Bowl chances alive for as long as possible rather than accelerate the transition to an unproven Jordan Love.
mbpacker
August 04, 2020 at 10:29 am
I am OK with the speculation per se. We're in a pandemic with a lot of uncertainty on many levels going on. I'm not an expert on any of this stuff, but find it interesting non-the-less. The whole season is one big speculation at this point. If you listen carefully I think both Nags and Andy both said the word IF a lot. So a lot does depends on how things unfold. No one knows for sure, not even Packer brass. It would be interesting to be a "fly on the wall" in Gute's office though. Nothing else to do so, why not just speculate and see what happens. Their speculation led to your comments which I also found interesting. It's great we are all passionate Packer fans! Go Pack Go!
HaroldDrake
August 04, 2020 at 02:43 pm
Thanks for your reply. I was just a little put off by this fatalistic mood that seems to be taking hold of Nagler regarding Rodgers. I suspect he would like to see Rodgers go sooner rather than later since he appears to be so willing to write Rodgers off after one or two more seasons with the Pack. That's why I wanted to remind other Packer fans and Cheesehead followers of the statistical odd against Love become a Favre/Rodgers level elite QB. If you look around the NFL, there are so many "Can't Miss" first round QB draft picks (Trubitzky, Josh Rosen, Paxton Lynch, and to a lesser extent Jameis Winston, et al). So why should Nagler and Herman operate under this odd assumption that Jordan Love is going to be able to replace Rodgers so seamlessly. I have my doubts. In the meantime, I think it's counterproductive to speak of Rodgers as an aging artifact who is simply playing out the string.
dobber
August 04, 2020 at 03:11 pm
I would argue that the future of ARod with the Packers hinges on a broad range of factors and how they add up. In no particular order...
...on-field ability/skill set
...cost against the cap/cap relief
...ability of the team to win now (supporting cast)
...availability of a successor (and at what level the successor plays)
...value in return in trade
...ability to function with coaching staff
I think every one of these things will weigh in on his clock with GB and in a constantly adjusting scale. We all weigh how we transact our commodities on need, value, outlook, and other factors. He's a commodity: every player is.
schmikey
August 04, 2020 at 10:01 am
fo sure! please gutey show a little more support and respect towards aaron rodgers. Set Arod up to finish well. At least coach lefluer says the right stuff. Come on man! (gutey)
mbpacker
August 04, 2020 at 10:13 am
I enjoyed the interview with Andy, hope Nags does more of this with Andy and others moving forward.
mbpacker
August 04, 2020 at 04:57 pm
Just another comment or thought. All my in-laws are Bear fans- the worst you can imagine when they are winning. The 70's and 80's were rough. They aren't saying anything yet, but I know they are hoping beyond hope that Love is a bust. I truly hope beyond hope that he is real deal and is the trinity of Packer QB domination. If he is, it's going to be fun knowing we continue to be relevant and in contention. I know my in-laws are privately sweating about the Packers moving up for a QB. I know it's a crap shoot but still fun to dream! Go Pack Go!