Against the Spread: Packers vs. Panthers

The Packers are -9 1/2 point favorites and the over/under is 47. So what's going to happen? Brian Carriveau has the prediction.

Throughout the course of the season we're highlighting the betting lines for every Packers game, both against the spread and the over/under. I'm going to make the case for each possibility, then choose one of each, and track my winnings (or losings) for every game. Here goes...

(For what it's worth, I'm using Danny Sheridan's odds.)

Line: Packers -9 1/2

  • Bet the Packers: The Packers beat the Saints in the season opener by eight and are now playing an inferior opponent, the Carolina Panthers, the worst team in the NFL last season. Green Bay has the edge, on defense and now with Randall Cobb, might even have the edge on special teams too. What happens when the best team in the league meets the worst team might be ugly.
  • Bet the Panthers: While the Packers offense looked good last week, their defense wasn't exactly stellar. Now they have to go into a road environment against an improved Panthers team from a year ago. The Packers defense is going to give up enough points to Carolina to keep this game interesting. And the Panthers will have an even better chance if Tramon Williams doesn't play.

Final decision: Bet the Packers. This decision is based upon the line staying under 10 points. Anything 10 or more, and I'd probably change my mind.

Last week: I took the Saints. And had they gained one more yard on the final play of the game, they would have covered. Nevertheless, I'm 0-1.

Over/under: 47 points

  • Bet the over: Perhaps you've heard that Cam Newton passed for 422 yards last week. With a supporting cast of characters that includes a strong stable of running backs, the always good Steve Smith, the rest of the wide receivers that are older and better than a year ago, and a bunch of new tight ends, the Panthers are significantly better. You know the Packers are going to put points on the board. And the way the Packers gave up 34 points last week, they're going to give up points on the road to an improved Panthers offense too.
  • Bet the under: While Newton passed for 422 yards last week, he did so against the Arizona Cardinals, not exactly the best pass defense in the NFL. The Packers meanwhile, had one of the best pass defenses in the NFL last season that allowed some of the fewest passing touchdowns and one of the lowest opposing quarterback ratings in the league. On the flip side, no one is under the impression that the Packers are going to get shut out, but they're not playing at Lambeau Field where they were in the emotionally-charged season opener. They're not going to fare as well on the road.

Final decision: Bet the over. The Packers scored 42 points alone last week. If they can have a repeat that performance, that means the Panthers would only have to contribute six more points to exceed the over.

Last week: I took the under. Boy, was I wrong. I might be overcompensating by picking the over this week.

Overall: 0-2

0 points
 

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