Against the Spread: Packers vs. Falcons

The Packers are favored by 5 1/2 points and the over/under is 53. So what's going to happen? Brian Carriveau has the prediction.

Throughout the course of the season we're highlighting the betting lines for every Packers game, both against the spread and the over/under. I'm going to make the case for each possibility, then choose one of each, and track my winnings (or losings) for every game. Here goes...

(For what it's worth, I'm using Danny Sheridan's odds.)

Line: Packers -5 1/2

  • Bet the Packers: Most Packers fans don't need to be reminded about the beating Green Bay laid on Atlanta last year in the playoffs 48–21. If anything the Packers are better off this year than last with more weapons at their disposal like Jermichael Finley, Ryan Grant and Randall Cobb. This year the Packers have the No. 1 scoring team in the NFL averaging 37 points per game. Meanwhile, the Falcons are a middling 16th averaging 22.5 per game.
  • Bet the Falcons: As fun and as big of a beatdown last year's playoff meeting was against Atlanta, just a few short weeks earlier Atlanta was the site of a regular season Packers loss to the Falcons 20–17. With the Packers pass defense still giving up tons of yards without the services of Nick Collins, there's reason to believe Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan can find some success through the air against Green Bay with a better wide receiver tandem than he had a year ago with Julio Jones joining Roddy White. Running back Michael Turner, like always, will be a beast to take down and he gave headaches to the Packers linebacker in the regular season meeting a year ago.

Final decision: Bet the Packers. Until a team actually goes out and stops them, I have no reason to think anyone will. The Packers aren't going to be intimidated by a road environment they won in, in the playoffs last year.

Last week: I picked the Packers, and they easily covered the 12 1/2 spread against the Broncos.

Over/under: 53

  • Bet the over: Until proven otherwise, there isn't a defense in the league capable of stopping the Packers offensive machine. It appears as if they'll get back Ryan Grant after a week off due to injury only increasing their number of weapons. Plus, the Falcons have the sixth-worst scoring defense in the NFL allowing an average of 26.2 points per game. As for their offense, their skill position players are talented. Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Roddy White and Julio Jones all have Pro Bowl ability. They're looking for a breakout performance to put points on the scoreboard, and there's no better time to do it in front of the home crowd in a nationally televised event. In their only home game this year, Atlanta put up 35 points.
  • Bet the under: Despite the Falcons' talent, for whatever reason they just can't get it rolling consistently. There's reason to think the longer the Packers get used to playing without Nick Collins and the more Tramon Williams gets healthy, their secondary is going to gel and improve and limit the Falcons' aerial attack better than their first four opponents. If there's reason to believe the Packers can be stopped, the evidence is last season's regular season meeting between the two teams when the Packers were held to a measly 17 points.

Final decision: Bet the over. The Packers have performed well in domed environment, which should make for a track meet by both teams. The Packers defense won't stop the Falcons offense cold.

Prediction: Packers 37 Falcons 21

Last week: I picked the over and the Packers almost came close to going over themselves with a 49 point outburst.

Cumulative record vs. the line: 4–4

Cumulative record straight up: 3–1

0 points
 

Comments (8)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
jmac3444's picture

October 07, 2011 at 12:19 am

3-1 that one loss should count for more because you picked the Bears to win and that is just embarrasing.

0 points
0
0
tony's picture

October 07, 2011 at 08:34 am

haha. +1. I think Brian knows his role now :-)

0 points
0
0
redlights's picture

October 07, 2011 at 07:29 am

GB defense is not horrible; its bend/not break. The biggest variable will be Turner; if he's under 100-120 yds, we'll eat them alive!

Last week, I predicted Flynn would play; could happen again!

0 points
0
0
FITZCORE1252's EVO's picture

October 07, 2011 at 09:04 am

Give the points, take the over.

GBP 4 LIFE

0 points
0
0
Bomdad's picture

October 07, 2011 at 09:41 am

I'm surprised Brian that you left special teams out of the mix here. I'll look for it in later blogs. But it was significant for the Falcons last season

0 points
0
0
Darrin's picture

October 07, 2011 at 09:52 am

Falcons secondary is weak and they have the second fewest sacks in the leage. This adds up to a ton of points for the Pack, regardless of what Atlanta does. I predict another 4 TD game for Rodgers, and Green Bay wins big.

0 points
0
0
CSS's picture

October 07, 2011 at 10:45 am

When was the last time an NFL team had the home-field 3 consecutive times against an opposing team in only 15 games?

Kind of crazy, really....

0 points
0
0
toby's picture

October 08, 2011 at 12:45 pm

probably in the mid ninties when wehad to go to big D every year

0 points
0
0