Against the Spread: Packers vs. Broncos

The Packers are favored by 12 1/2 points and the over/under is 46 points. So what's going to happen? Brian Carriveau has the prediction.

Throughout the course of the season we're highlighting the betting lines for every Packers game, both against the spread and the over/under. I'm going to make the case for each possibility, then choose one of each, and track my winnings (or losings) for every game. Here goes...

(For what it's worth, I'm using Danny Sheridan's odds.)

Line: Packers -12 1/2

  • Bet the Packers: If there's a cure for the Packers' 31st-ranked pass defense, it might just be the Broncos offense. Denver ranks 22nd in the NFL putting up only 210 yards per game through the air. The Packers' No. 1 ranked run defense should have little trouble with the Broncos' 28th-ranked rushing attack, which puts up only 78 yards per game. And you know the Packers offense isn't capable of being stopped.
  • Bet the Broncos: Denver might have a losing 1-2 record, but their two losses were by a total of six points. They lost 23-20 against Oakland and 17-14 to Tennesse showing that they've at least been in every game this season. Plus it's looking like they'll get a shot in the arm with a healthy Elvis Dumervil and Champ Bailey back in the lineup after missing time earlier in the season. Combined with Von Miller, the Broncos defense might be stouter than most anticipated. Some might say this is a trap game for Green Bay.

Final decision: Bet the Packers. Anything under a 14-point spread is looking good for Green Bay, especially with home field advantage.

Last week: I picked the Bears both straight up and against the spread and was wrong on both accounts. By winning on the road against a team with a pulse, the Packers has shown me they're awfully tough to pick against. I can't imagine predicting them to lose straight up until at least Thanksgiving, and maybe not even then.

Over/under: 46

  • Bet the over: The Packers are averaging 33 points per game themselves with good balance between the running and the passing game. It's going to be pick your poison for the Broncos. Try stopping the run and Aaron Rodgers will beat them through the air. Try stopping the pass and it will open things up for the ground attack. There's a decent chance the Packers will near 46 points alone. Not only that, but with the Broncos facing one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, Denver quarterback Kyle Orton might have more success than usual. The Broncos wouldn't mind a shootout one bit.
  • Bet the under: With Dumervil and Bailey back for the Broncos, the Packers will be more offensively challenged than usual. The Broncos offense has been sputtering all season long, and there's no reason to think they'll have a breakout game on the road against one of the best teams in the NFL.

Final decision: Bet the over. The Packers offense is too good to be stopped. And the Packers pass defense has been too inconsistent to not allow at least a couple scores by the Broncos.

Prediction: Packers 35 Broncos 14

Last week: I picked the under (46 1/2) and was correct. Slugfests seem to be the norm when the Packers and the Bears meet.

Overall vs. the line: 2-4

Overall straight up: 2-1

0 points
 

Comments (7)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
BubbaOne's picture

September 29, 2011 at 09:33 pm

I see this as a trap game sandwiched between a good road win vs their biggest division rival and a Sunday night road game vs last years # 1 seed Falcons. I'm picturing a workman like never really in doubt 24-13 victory.
I'm hoping they play up to their level and not down to a lesser team's level. I want to see Flynn play 1/2 of the 4th quarter w/ the Packers up 31-6.

0 points
0
0
ron's picture

September 29, 2011 at 09:53 pm

Maybe it is just my idea of what "trap game" means, but if you really think this is a trap game then shouldn't you be picking the Packers to lose?

0 points
0
0
BubbaOne's picture

September 30, 2011 at 07:33 am

Ron, Fitzcore says it more accurately...a "letdown" game...an uninspired, maybe sloppy game where the Packers superior talent provides the victory.
A hopeful sign the team will come out w/ a strong and inspired performance is AR calling out Finley.

0 points
0
0
FITZCORE1252's picture

September 29, 2011 at 09:55 pm

I think the Pack are past the "let down" games... the Bucs game comes to mind. This will be a good litmus test to tell whether that's the case. We should blow them out, everyone knows it... now just go do it.

0 points
0
0
FITZCORE1252's picture

September 29, 2011 at 09:52 pm

Give the points, take the over. Don't have a score for this game, but I will say I see the Pack's season average for points going up, and the points allowed going down.

GBP 4 LIFE

0 points
0
0
Tarynfor 12's picture

September 30, 2011 at 06:54 am

Take the points and the over.
MM will find a way to keep Den close and win by 8...GB 31-23
GB scores with 7 mins to go,Den scores quick with just under 5 min to go,GB can't get a 3rd down and Den almost scores with 1 min but turns it over on downs.

0 points
0
0
Idiot Fan's picture

September 30, 2011 at 10:12 am

Trap game or no, the Packers have a tendency to play to the level of their competition. I think they still will win, but it may look a bit like the Panthers game.

0 points
0
0